Where to Bat your Best Hitter

[RollieTime]

I know there has been a lot of debate over the years about where to place the best hitter in your lineup. There was some discussion about it on MLB Network during the regular season where they presented this information and I figured it would be a good conversation to have here.

 

Below is a list of how many plate appearances there were in total from each spot in the order during the 2018 season.

 

Lineup Spot: Total PA/30: PA

1. 22,629: 754.3

2. 22,131: 737.7

3. 21,610: 720.3

4. 21,123: 704.1

5. 20,642: 688.1

6. 20,105: 670.2

7. 19,534: 651.1

8. 18,966: 632.2

9. 18,387: 612.9

 

Now, this next bit of information is based off of what an AVERAGE hitter during the season had for an OBP, which was .320. The below information is presented with your best hitter hitting second.

 

(1) Hitter A = .320 OBP

(2) Hitter X = Best Hitter

 

32% chance Hitter X hits with Hitter A on base.

68% chance Hitter X hits with bases empty.

 

Over the course of the season, Hitter X (best hitter) would have 52 plate appearances during the season with a runner on base in the first inning.

 

Now, the next bit of information is also based off of what an average hitter had for an OBP, but the information is presented with your best hitter hitting third.

 

(1) Hitter A = .320 OBP

(2) Hitter B = .320 OBP

(3) Hitter X = Best Hitter

 

43% chance Hitter X hits with Hitter A OR B on base.

10% chance Hitter X hits with both Hitter A AND B on base.

 

Over the course of the season, Hitter X (best hitter) would have 70 plate appearances with one runner on base in the first inning plus 16 plate appearances with two runners on base in the first inning = 86 PA with at least one runner on base in the first inning. An increase of 34(!) plate appearances over the course of the season with at least one runner on base in the first inning by hitting 3rd instead of 2nd

 

Finally, the RBI totals among some of the best in the game through August 31st of this season relative to where they bat in the order.

 

Through August 31st

 

RBI: PA w/ runners on: Primary Batting Position

Josh Bell: 109: 292: 4th

Freddie Freeman: 109: 281: 3rd

Anthony Rendon: 109: 283: 3rd

José Abreu: 104: 301: 3rd

Cody Bellinger: 101: 296: 4th

Pete Alonso: 101: 278: 2nd

Mike Trout: 101: 254: 2nd

Christian Yelich: 89: 238: 2nd

 

Based on this information, I think it would make the most sense to have Yelich hitting 3rd. The increase of 34(!) plate appearances over the course of the season with at least one runner on base in the first inning alone by hitting 3rd instead of 2nd is HUGE. Especially in the first inning when most pitchers tend to have control issues and are trying to get a feel for their pitches early on.

 

You could even make a case for dropping Yelich to 4th, but dropping him from 2nd to 4th would drop his plate appearances by roughly 34 over the course of the season by doing so. I think dropping him from 2nd to 3rd and lowering his plate appearances by roughly 17 is okay since there would be a significant increase in opportunities to do damage in the first inning.

 

Also, keep in mind that the numbers posted above for plate appearances with runners on base is based off of a hitter with a .320 OBP. Get a couple guys like Grandal and Hiura in front of him with OBP’s over .350 and there would be an even higher amount of plate appearances with runners on base in the first inning.

 

Hopefully Cain has a nice bounce back season and can be the leadoff hitter of 2018, Hiura continues to produce and is in the two hole, and Yelich can get bumped down to third to get more opportunities to drive in runs to get early leads in games for our pitching staff.

[Lathund]

The answer to the question of where to bat your best hitter shouldn't be "Where does our best hitter get the most RBIs?". That's one part of it, but the problem with the analysis above is that it ignores the on base ability of the best hitter and the RBI opportunities it creates for others. Yelich is both the best hitter for batting in runs as well as the best at getting on base for others. So he's simultaneously the best leadoff man and the best cleanup hitter.

 

So it's the balance between maximizing the RBI opportunities overall, or getting fewer overall but trying to get them at more opportune times. The former is important because this is not a zero-sum game; Yelich leading off will result in the team having the most baserunners (as in hits + walks mostly) and thus the most opportunities for RBIs overall. It will of course also mean benefitting less from his power, and seeing him have fewer of them. For every spot you move him down the order, the team as a whole will have fewer baserunners and fewer RBI opportunities.

 

Where to bat your best hitter also depends very much on who'd be in front of him, both their quality and their profile. If your second and third best hitters were of the Grandal variety (As in deriving their overall high value largely from walks and HRs rather than singles and doubles) i would make sense to put them in front of a Yelich and have him 3rd. But consider a situation where your 2nd and 3rd best hitters are instead of the Moustakas or Javy Baez variety (i.e low OBP but high slugging) you'd want them behind, and not in front of, a Yelich. So if you in that situation wanted high OBP guys at #1 and #2, they'd be worse overall hitters and you'd not only have to factor in that Yelich gets 17 fewer PAs, but that if the guy you're now batting leadoff is someone like 2017 Eric Sogard (An excellent .393 OBP, but a 109 wRC+ which would rank 7th on the 2019 Brewers) you'd be giving him 102 more PAs by moving him from #7 to #1, and giving not only Yelich but everyone else better than that 109 wRC+ 17 fewer PAs each. Yeah, Yelich gets more RBI opportunities, but does the team score more runs because of it? That's harder to answer.

 

Then there's also the fact that not every baserunner is created equal. Looking for example at Fangraphs UBR metric (Which is baserunning, as in going 1st to 3rd on singles or 1st to home on doubles etc, not including stolen bases which is separate) Yelich was worth 8 runs more than Grandal as a baserunner. 13.5 runs more if we include SBs. Whether the size of the differentiial is 100% right or not, the eye test wouldn't disagree that Yelich was the far more valuable baserunner. Now I didn't mind moving Grandal up because I still think that was the best fit, but one still needs to take Yelich's ability to manufacture runs on the basepaths into accoun; you're more likely to score a run with Yelich on base than with almost anyone else. Which ties into another reason to emphasize the OBP ability of great hitters like Yelich: You need a successful outcome of a plate appearance to get on base, but you don't need a successful outcome to drive one in. Now a run scoring *is* of course successful in and of itself, but what I mean is that there is no such thing as a productive out with nobody on. Whereas even a GIDP can score a run.

 

Most of all I'd argue that whether Yelich bats 2nd or 3rd (I don't really see a case for putting him anywhere else) overall makes very little difference. Bat him 3rd and he gets a few more RBIs, bat him 2nd and he scores a few more runs (i.e others get more RBIs). But to settle that argument, one needs to look at a lot more than just RBI opportunities for one player.

[JosephC]

Yelich should be hitting in the #2 spot, and the pitcher should be hitting in the #8 spot so there is a higher OBP in the lineup that is 2 spots ahead of Yelich for the majority of his at-bats.

 

I think this has firmly been established by pretty much every mathematical model that has had 50+ years of seasonal data plugged into it. High OBP guy lead off, stack the best hitters directly after him, and then put another hitter in the 9 spot to get more RBI opportunities for the guys in the #2 and #3 spots in the batting order.

 

I'm pretty astounded that the Brewers are so data driven, can sit there and look at Yelich's 44 home run and 97 RBI ratio, and think it's a good idea to continue to bat him two spots behind a .164 OBP (Brewer pitcher's OBP according to Fangraphs).

[TURBO]

Ok, then where do you hide a crappy hitter like Arcia?

 

Can't hit him 9th, he doesn't fit the above mentioned requirement.

 

Can't hit him 8th, that is the pitcher's spot.

 

Under what is said above, he would have to hit 7th? I understand what is being said, I just don't have an answer for where you hide a guy like Arcia, because we certainly don't want him getting more at bats in the course of a season, and the higher he moves up in the order, the more at bats he gets. Same thing with Pina, where do we hide him? Hit Pina 6th and Arcia 7th?

 

Geez.

 

This just tells me that we can no longer afford to wait on this guy, we need a bat at SS, and we need to resign Grandal.

[MrTPlush]

Most mathematical models I see on this simply look on how to make your best hitter as productive as possible. That isn’t the goal, they goal is making the most productive lineup. Giving the pitcher more ABs (or crappy pinch hitters), Arcia more ABs, and dropping a productive OBP machine to 9th is NOT the answer. Why is he batting 9th? Just bat him lead off and drop Yelich to 3rd! He losses a grand ole 17 PAs then...while the pitcher/PH gets 20 less and Arcia gets nearly 20 less. Don’t forget the productive OBP you dropped to 9th now gets about 130 more.

 

I don’t know the exact answer (probably not a right one), but that theory is certainly not it.

[RollieTime]

Most mathematical models I see on this simply look on how to make your best hitter as productive as possible. That isn’t the goal, they goal is making the most productive lineup. Giving the pitcher more ABs (or crappy pinch hitters), Arcia more ABs, and dropping a productive OBP machine to 9th is NOT the answer. Why is he batting 9th? Just bat him lead off and drop Yelich to 3rd! He losses a grand ole 17 PAs then...while the pitcher/PH gets 20 less and Arcia gets nearly 20 less. Don’t forget the productive OBP you dropped to 9th now gets about 130 more.

 

I don’t know the exact answer (probably not a right one), but that theory is certainly not it.

 

Exactly this. Third just makes the most sense. Why someone would want to take 130 at bats away from a high OBP guy sounds counter productive.

 

Lathund, I can see your point about having Yelich third and giving other guys the opportunity to drive him in. And to a point, I can agree that RBI isn’t the only stat to look at. But since Yelich is clearly the best hitter on the team, wouldn’t it make sense to have him bat third and drive in more runs since the goal is to score more than your opponent? And he definitely has the highest chance of doing that successfully on the team?

 

If you put Yelich second then and want others to drive him in, who are you putting behind him? I have way more faith in Yelich driving in guys like Grandal and Hiura with their high OBP’s than to have Moose (.252/.310 career), Grandal (.241/.348 career), or Braun (hit .285 last season, OBP of .343) hitting after Yelich and hoping to drive him in. Now you should probably look for a guy with a high average to drive Yelich in. Obviously average is not an end all be all stat, but if Yelich is on base and we are talking about someone being a serious threat to protect him, then it probably shouldn’t be a low average guy that walks quite a bit like Grandal since that’s not driving in runs either. Again, RBI isn’t the only stat to look at, but a guy hitting .330 is going to lead to more runs being driven in with higher on base guys in front of him than a .285 or .252 hitter following a very high OBP guy himself.

 

RBI is a stat that people tend to throw out the window these days, but how many runs you are driving in for your team and winning games by doing so shouldn’t be overlooked. 44 homers and only 97 RBI? The next closest guys on the team in RBI were Moustakas (87), Grandal (77), and Braun (75). If Yelich is on base so much, why aren’t the RBI totals higher for these guys since they were the guys hitting after Yelich most of the season?

 

To me, it makes no sense to have your best hitter second and expecting inferior players to drive him in and have that be the way the offense is constructed. Having guys that walk a lot and get on base to get your .330 hitter up who also has 40 homers himself and putting him third to drive in the guys in front of him makes much more sense to me. With all the analytics there are these days, people tend to look over average and RBI. Higher average is from a player hitting the ball and reaching base safely. Which would increase the amount of RBI since you’re driving the ball and reaching base safely, getting on base a lot yourself for the next hitter to drive you in, leading to possibly more runs scoring after your best hitter just drove in a run or two, giving you a better chance to win the game.

[Oxy]

Most mathematical models I see on this simply look on how to make your best hitter as productive as possible. That isn’t the goal, they goal is making the most productive lineup. Giving the pitcher more ABs (or crappy pinch hitters), Arcia more ABs, and dropping a productive OBP machine to 9th is NOT the answer. Why is he batting 9th? Just bat him lead off and drop Yelich to 3rd! He losses a grand ole 17 PAs then...while the pitcher/PH gets 20 less and Arcia gets nearly 20 less. Don’t forget the productive OBP you dropped to 9th now gets about 130 more.

 

I don’t know the exact answer (probably not a right one), but that theory is certainly not it.

 

Why are pinch hitters crappy? Generally it's a guy who is quite good if the L/R matchup works out, and R/R matchups are usually okay too.

[TURBO]

Most mathematical models I see on this simply look on how to make your best hitter as productive as possible. That isn’t the goal, they goal is making the most productive lineup. Giving the pitcher more ABs (or crappy pinch hitters), Arcia more ABs, and dropping a productive OBP machine to 9th is NOT the answer. Why is he batting 9th? Just bat him lead off and drop Yelich to 3rd! He losses a grand ole 17 PAs then...while the pitcher/PH gets 20 less and Arcia gets nearly 20 less. Don’t forget the productive OBP you dropped to 9th now gets about 130 more.

 

I don’t know the exact answer (probably not a right one), but that theory is certainly not it.

 

Why are pinch hitters crappy? Generally it's a guy who is quite good if the L/R matchup works out, and R/R matchups are usually okay too.

 

I don't think that just because a guy is pinch hitting for someone that that means he is better than the guy he is pinch hitting for. Sometimes it's just a righty lefty match up thing, sometimes it's just another way for a tinkering manager to tinker, and sometimes it might be that the pinch hitter has had better success with a given pitcher than the guy who is supposed to be hitting...

 

A pinch hitter is often not any better than the guy he is hitting for imo.

[JosephC]

Ok, then where do you hide a crappy hitter like Arcia?

 

Can't hit him 9th, he doesn't fit the above mentioned requirement.

 

Can't hit him 8th, that is the pitcher's spot.

 

Under what is said above, he would have to hit 7th? I understand what is being said, I just don't have an answer for where you hide a guy like Arcia, because we certainly don't want him getting more at bats in the course of a season, and the higher he moves up in the order, the more at bats he gets. Same thing with Pina, where do we hide him? Hit Pina 6th and Arcia 7th?

 

Geez.

 

This just tells me that we can no longer afford to wait on this guy, we need a bat at SS, and we need to resign Grandal.

 

Arcia's pitiful .283 OBP is still far better than the average .164 OBP posted by the pitchers. As the numbers in post #1 show, 20 less plate appearance for the 9th spot opposed to the 8th spot...but with pinch hitting for pitchers that number is even less when looking at how many extra plate appearances would be forced on pitchers if they were moved to 8th in the batting order. #9 is the perfect place to hide Arcia, and still end up with a hitter that is roughly .120 OBP higher (on average) 2 spots in the order ahead of Yelich.

 

I don't think this would be the case, but there is always a chance that Arcia might hit a little bit better if he was batting ahead of another hitter instead of a pitcher. Again, I don't think so because Arcia just isn't a good hitter. But there is always that theory of hitters getting more or less strikes depending on who is hitting behind them.

 

Maybe Counsell doesn't like it because it might force someone like Thames to hit in front of a pitcher if he was slotted #7 in the batting order. But to improve the OBP .120 two spots ahead of Yelich in the order, I'd gladly have a pitcher hitting behind Thames.

[clancyphile]

With Hiura's arrival, my instinct is to have Yelich bat third, especially if Grisham is leading off.

 

Preserves a L-R-L top three of the order, and it not only gives Yelich a good RBI opportunity, it also protects Hiura and gives him pitches to hit.

[MrTPlush]

Most mathematical models I see on this simply look on how to make your best hitter as productive as possible. That isn’t the goal, they goal is making the most productive lineup. Giving the pitcher more ABs (or crappy pinch hitters), Arcia more ABs, and dropping a productive OBP machine to 9th is NOT the answer. Why is he batting 9th? Just bat him lead off and drop Yelich to 3rd! He losses a grand ole 17 PAs then...while the pitcher/PH gets 20 less and Arcia gets nearly 20 less. Don’t forget the productive OBP you dropped to 9th now gets about 130 more.

 

I don’t know the exact answer (probably not a right one), but that theory is certainly not it.

 

Why are pinch hitters crappy? Generally it's a guy who is quite good if the L/R matchup works out, and R/R matchups are usually okay too.

 

Yah, sure, at face value it sounds good...but most players struggle badly at PHing. It just is not an easy task. Braun was horrid doing it last year and Gamel (a major PHer last year) barely cracked a .600 OPS. It depends on the year/player, but it isn’t exactly ideal. Typically you are asking bench bats to have a random AB once a game.

[3and2Fastball]

Generally speaking, in my opinion, if your best hitter is also an above average runner, like Trout, Yelich, Bregman, I'd bat them 2nd.

 

If your best hitter is a below average runner, such as Nolan Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt, I'd bat them 3rd

[rickh150]

Generally speaking, in my opinion, if your best hitter is also an above average runner, like Trout, Yelich, Bregman, I'd bat them 2nd.

 

If your best hitter is a below average runner, such as Nolan Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt, I'd bat them 3rd

 

Agree, Yelich can run. Hate seeing him bat 3 and hit with no on and two out. It's all about the 1st inning scenarios and the added bonus of getting him a few more at bats for the year. We also have a great option in a Hiura to bat 3rd.

[logan82]

RBI is a function of where a hitter is in the order more than how good they are. It really should be completely ignored.

[Ennder]

Most mathematical models I see on this simply look on how to make your best hitter as productive as possible. That isn’t the goal, they goal is making the most productive lineup. Giving the pitcher more ABs (or crappy pinch hitters), Arcia more ABs, and dropping a productive OBP machine to 9th is NOT the answer. Why is he batting 9th? Just bat him lead off and drop Yelich to 3rd! He losses a grand ole 17 PAs then...while the pitcher/PH gets 20 less and Arcia gets nearly 20 less. Don’t forget the productive OBP you dropped to 9th now gets about 130 more.

 

I don’t know the exact answer (probably not a right one), but that theory is certainly not it.

 

Not sure which models you are looking at but pretty much none of them do it this way. They generally maximize runs for the entire lineup, never seen one that just focused on one person. Your best overall hitter should generally bat 2nd. Since Yelich is such a balanced hitter he is an ideal #2 guy. If he were more power heavy with lower OBP like a Khris Davis it would make more sense putting him 3rd.

 

For the OP, your method is sound but what it is missing is the getting on base aspect. Yelich is not only the best power hitter on the team, he is the best on the team at getting on base. So you aren't just trying to maximize his PA with runners on, you want to maximize them in general. The extra PA he gets by batting 2nd are going to matter more for him than the extra PA with runners on from 3rd. If he weren't such a balanced hitter this might not hold true.

[sveumrules]

Here's what the lineup tool at Baseball Musings thought our best & worst lineups would have been in 2019...

 

https://bit.ly/32doolO

 

The main takeaway is that the difference between our best & 30th best lineup, in their estimation, would have been about .014 runs per game, or 1 run every 72 games, if you prefer.

 

As long as we don't bat the pitcher leadoff with Hiura & Yelich 8th/9th, the difference is miniscule.

[wntrtxn21]

Ok, then where do you hide a crappy hitter like Arcia?

 

Can't hit him 9th, he doesn't fit the above mentioned requirement.

 

Can't hit him 8th, that is the pitcher's spot.

 

Under what is said above, he would have to hit 7th? I understand what is being said, I just don't have an answer for where you hide a guy like Arcia, because we certainly don't want him getting more at bats in the course of a season, and the higher he moves up in the order, the more at bats he gets. Same thing with Pina, where do we hide him? Hit Pina 6th and Arcia 7th?

 

Geez.

 

This just tells me that we can no longer afford to wait on this guy, we need a bat at SS, and we need to resign Grandal.

 

Arcia's pitiful .283 OBP is still far better than the average .164 OBP posted by the pitchers. As the numbers in post #1 show, 20 less plate appearance for the 9th spot opposed to the 8th spot...but with pinch hitting for pitchers that number is even less when looking at how many extra plate appearances would be forced on pitchers if they were moved to 8th in the batting order. #9 is the perfect place to hide Arcia, and still end up with a hitter that is roughly .120 OBP higher (on average) 2 spots in the order ahead of Yelich.

 

I don't think this would be the case, but there is always a chance that Arcia might hit a little bit better if he was batting ahead of another hitter instead of a pitcher. Again, I don't think so because Arcia just isn't a good hitter. But there is always that theory of hitters getting more or less strikes depending on who is hitting behind them.

 

Maybe Counsell doesn't like it because it might force someone like Thames to hit in front of a pitcher if he was slotted #7 in the batting order. But to improve the OBP .120 two spots ahead of Yelich in the order, I'd gladly have a pitcher hitting behind Thames.

 

If the pitcher hits 8th then the #7 guy isn't going to see as many good pitches as he normally would, especially in crucial situations. Plus if the #8 guy gets on, a pitcher can bunt him over. For each hitter you try to help by batting a pitcher higher in the order, you hurt another hitter equally as much.

[topper09er]

I'm pretty sure Tom Tango did a whole chapter on this in 'The Book', but I always thought the flaw was that he used data from previous seasons where the best hitter predominantly hit 3rd and I don't remember him adjusting for that fact, I think the conclusion was the optimal batting spots for the best hitter in order were 2,1 and 4.

[RollieTime]

I want to bump this thread in that I think this would be a great opportunity for the Brewers to be able to drop Yelich to third in the order and be able to mix and match different guys in front of him that could all have .350+ OBP’s. Holt, Cain, Hiura, Sogard, and Urias (hopefully) all could have OBP’s at or above .350. I feel that being able to put more runners on in front of Yelich early in games and being able to (in my opinion) drop Hiura to 4th to give us a great bat to protect Yelich.

 

My ideal lineup is Hiura 2nd, Yelich 3rd, and a big bat 4th (like Castellanos which is why I wanted him so bad), but since we don’t have one, I hope Hiura takes that spot and we put a couple guys like Holt and a rebounded Cain (or Urias?) in front of Yelich.

[DHonks]

I’d love Braun either leadoff or 2nd. The benefit to 2nd would be his tremendous ability to hit it up the middle could be used for hit-and-runs

[TJseven7]

I’d love Braun either leadoff or 2nd. The benefit to 2nd would be his tremendous ability to hit it up the middle could be used for hit-and-runs

 

Braun has been a 330 obp guy for the last 3 years. Smoak hit 200 and got on base as much.

 

If you aren't putting up north of 350 obp you shouldn't be in front of Yelich. I want Cain in the lead off spot vs LHP and Holt at lead off vs RHP. Yelich 2 and start the parade of Hiura Braun Garcia Smoak Narvaez depending on the matchup. Only time I'd even consider Braun ahead of Yelich is vs LHP.

 

RHP

Holt Yelich Hiura Narvaez Smoak Garcia (or Braun Smoak) Cain Sogard

LHP

Cain Yelich Braun Garcia Hiura Gyorko Sogard Pina (If Cain doesn't rebound Braun or Sogard are leading off)

 

Before you say that's not RLRL... 3 batter minimum.

 

As for where they should hit. I believe in the logic of 2. Especially when you have solid depth behind Yelich and his OBP is insanely high himself. Whether its 2 or 3 it can go in your favor or against you. I think if your best hitters OBP is coming off back to back 400+ seasons you put 1 guy in front of him and that guy has to be over 350 OBP. If you best hitter is more power less OBP then I'd put them 3rd. Yelich OBP vs RHP over the last two years has basically averaged 430. LHP only 390. HA!

 

I'm not a big believer in the 1 swing only offense and I don't think this team relies on that as heavily as it has. Not saying they swing for singles but I'm very fond of high OBP lower K guys. They don't only WALK, they put the ball in play. High K guys frustrate me and kill a big innings and natural happening run production. You don't swing to move a runner but if you don't put a ball in play you aren't going to move a runner.

 

Josh Bell: 109: 292: 4th

OBP 367 so 4th makes sense

Freddie Freeman: 109: 281: 3rd

OBP 389 3rd or 2nd makes sense.

Anthony Rendon: 109: 283: 3rd

OBP 412 bat him 2nd.

José Abreu: 104: 301: 3rd

OBP 330 on a better team bat him 4th

Cody Bellinger: 101: 296: 4th

OBP 406 bat him 2nd

Pete Alonso: 101: 278: 2nd

OBP 358 should be 4th

Mike Trout: 101: 254: 2nd

OBP 438 boy is him and Rendon a duo at 2-3. Just bonkers. 850 OBP between the 2 and 3 hitter O.O

 

I think where they bat should have a lot to do with OBP.

Christian Yelich: 89: 238: 2nd

OBP 429 so bat him 2nd. He had 110 RBI in 2018. You NEED the lead off guy to get on. Cain was a big problem for Yelich in 2019.

 

2018 leadoff hitter 357 OBP 2019 leadoff hitter 324 OBP

Can't have the latter. Has to be north of 350. Yelich was down .00173 RBI/PA in 2019. I'm pretty confident the 33 point OBP drop in front of him played a part in that. While that seems small every number AVG OBP OPS OPS+ and HRs increased so RBIs should have increased as well but the lead off hitter did so much damage that it actually declined.

[brewcrewdue80]

I know there has been a lot of debate over the years about where to place the best hitter in your lineup. There was some discussion about it on MLB Network during the regular season where they presented this information and I figured it would be a good conversation to have here.

 

Below is a list of how many plate appearances there were in total from each spot in the order during the 2018 season.

 

Lineup Spot: Total PA/30: PA

1. 22,629: 754.3

2. 22,131: 737.7

3. 21,610: 720.3

4. 21,123: 704.1

5. 20,642: 688.1

6. 20,105: 670.2

7. 19,534: 651.1

8. 18,966: 632.2

9. 18,387: 612.9

 

Now, this next bit of information is based off of what an AVERAGE hitter during the season had for an OBP, which was .320. The below information is presented with your best hitter hitting second.

 

(1) Hitter A = .320 OBP

(2) Hitter X = Best Hitter

 

32% chance Hitter X hits with Hitter A on base.

68% chance Hitter X hits with bases empty.

 

Over the course of the season, Hitter X (best hitter) would have 52 plate appearances during the season with a runner on base in the first inning.

 

Now, the next bit of information is also based off of what an average hitter had for an OBP, but the information is presented with your best hitter hitting third.

 

(1) Hitter A = .320 OBP

(2) Hitter B = .320 OBP

(3) Hitter X = Best Hitter

 

43% chance Hitter X hits with Hitter A OR B on base.

10% chance Hitter X hits with both Hitter A AND B on base.

 

Over the course of the season, Hitter X (best hitter) would have 70 plate appearances with one runner on base in the first inning plus 16 plate appearances with two runners on base in the first inning = 86 PA with at least one runner on base in the first inning. An increase of 34(!) plate appearances over the course of the season with at least one runner on base in the first inning by hitting 3rd instead of 2nd

 

Finally, the RBI totals among some of the best in the game through August 31st of this season relative to where they bat in the order.

 

Through August 31st

 

RBI: PA w/ runners on: Primary Batting Position

Josh Bell: 109: 292: 4th

Freddie Freeman: 109: 281: 3rd

Anthony Rendon: 109: 283: 3rd

José Abreu: 104: 301: 3rd

Cody Bellinger: 101: 296: 4th

Pete Alonso: 101: 278: 2nd

Mike Trout: 101: 254: 2nd

Christian Yelich: 89: 238: 2nd

 

Based on this information, I think it would make the most sense to have Yelich hitting 3rd. The increase of 34(!) plate appearances over the course of the season with at least one runner on base in the first inning alone by hitting 3rd instead of 2nd is HUGE. Especially in the first inning when most pitchers tend to have control issues and are trying to get a feel for their pitches early on.

 

You could even make a case for dropping Yelich to 4th, but dropping him from 2nd to 4th would drop his plate appearances by roughly 34 over the course of the season by doing so. I think dropping him from 2nd to 3rd and lowering his plate appearances by roughly 17 is okay since there would be a significant increase in opportunities to do damage in the first inning.

 

Also, keep in mind that the numbers posted above for plate appearances with runners on base is based off of a hitter with a .320 OBP. Get a couple guys like Grandal and Hiura in front of him with OBP’s over .350 and there would be an even higher amount of plate appearances with runners on base in the first inning.

 

Hopefully Cain has a nice bounce back season and can be the leadoff hitter of 2018, Hiura continues to produce and is in the two hole, and Yelich can get bumped down to third to get more opportunities to drive in runs to get early leads in games for our pitching staff.

 

Just a little tidbit on this. Your premise is a .320OB but HRs go towards the OB number. If you want your best hitter at #3, if those .320 guys are batting 1/2, what happens when 1 or 2 of them hits 40HRs? What about when combined Leadoff 30HR, 2nd to bat 40HRs or 70Combined before that best hitter?

 

Well my math at a leadoff with 30HRs and best hitter #2 is 28% vs 32. And #3 with 70HRs combined at 27.3% And I think with both bases occupied 7.64% if the multiple of both numbers is what figures that out?

 

In regards to the RBI/PAs with runners one/order batted: Can notice on Yelich's at #2, that's based on him playing less games there right? Which I guess to equal those stats out, you'd have to go on equation on what a 162 game projection?

 

Two of the top 3 in that with runners on base came from the 4th batting spot, even though that spot has 33less PAs in the season than #2.

 

So I think what this shows is you may want to bat your highest HR/PA #4 and your best batter after that #2. High OB #1 after that. Best batter after those figured out #3. If I go by that Yelich goes 4th. Hiura goes #2. I don't know exactly how 1/3 work as after Yelich and Hiura nobody else is an everyday player. Braun probably fills #3 with his OB/OPS combo from last season.

[TJseven7]

You want a 1st inning where your best batter doesn't bat? Because he hits a lot of HRs? You want a 400+ obp guy behind 3 guys?

 

I don't get that. Invert Yelich Hiura sure. Otherwise I think you are trying to be too smart.

[brewcrewdue80]

You want a 1st inning where your best batter doesn't bat? Because he hits a lot of HRs? You want a 400+ obp guy behind 3 guys?

 

I don't get that. Invert Yelich Hiura sure. Otherwise I think you are trying to be too smart.

 

True in Yelich's case he's a level ahead of Hiura that you would want him batting higher. In Hiura's case, I think his numbers are going to improve lowering his Ks which would mean raises his HR/PA, likely gets his number close to where he would fit my mold as a #4 batter.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If Cain can revert to his 2018 form assuming the hand issues he dealt with last season are behind him, I think the ideal lineup would have Cain leading off with Hiura batting 2nd and Yelich 3rd - then frankly the rest of their lineup is going to move around alot because of how much the Brewers will likely be platooning guys.

 

If Cain isn't the answer at the leadoff spot, then I think I'd take a long look at batting Yelich leadoff and moving the pitcher's spot to 8th in the lineup.

 

The question of where to bat your best hitter actually depends entirely on what the strengths of your best hitter are. For a guy like Yelich, the fact he's an OBP machine, still hits a ton of line drives, and can steal you a bunch of bases means I want to see him hitting 2nd or possibly even leadoff assuming the rest of the roster fills out the lineup well around him. I think getting more ABs is more valuable to a hitter like Yelich compared to having him up where you'd traditionally expect more RBI opportunities, because Yelich can impact the game on the basepaths.