Grandal declines mutual option

[Thurston Fluff]

He's going to go with whichever team gives him the most money. So will Cole. So will the other top free agents.

 

And there's a big assumption that we're going to be a "contender" next season.

 

Just like these crap teams are crap until they prove they are not, the Brewers are contenders until they prove they are not. The Brewers have a ton of talent coming back, even if they lose Moose and Grandal. It's obviously a long way from opening day, but this team is coming off back-to-back playoff appearances. I don't think there is any reason to believe that they are suddenly going to be bad.

 

Just to add to that, it isn't like everything went right for them this season. They didn't have a bunch of guys with career years or exceptional luck on the injury front. If anything it's the other way around. I think most players see the Brewers as legitimate contenders which is what matters when it comes to free agents looking for a place to compete for a title.

[TURBO]

If we are going to rely on Shaw at 3B, and lose Moose, that is a MAJOR downgrade. If we lose Grandal, and rely on Pina as our everyday C, that is a MAJOR downgrade.

 

They would have to add some MAJOR pitching to have any shot of contending imo.

 

I know, I know, there is lots of time, and lots of moves to be made, blah blah blah.

[pacopete4]

Shaw to Moose is only a downgrade if he hits like last season. If he goes back to doing what he did in years prior with us, it’s not really a downgrade at all.

[TURBO]

Shaw to Moose is only a downgrade if he hits like last season. If he goes back to doing what he did in years prior with us, it’s not really a downgrade at all.

 

Are you willing to take that gamble, and possibly be left with the blackest of black holes at an offensive position that needs to be productive?

 

If Shaw tanks again, and that is what I am expecting, and you add him to Pina and Arcia, we better be upgrading the starting pitching or it could be a long LONG season.

[pacopete4]

Shaw to Moose is only a downgrade if he hits like last season. If he goes back to doing what he did in years prior with us, it’s not really a downgrade at all.

 

Are you willing to take that gamble, and possibly be left with the blackest of black holes at an offensive position that needs to be productive?

 

If Shaw tanks again, and that is what I am expecting, and you add him to Pina and Arcia, we better be upgrading the starting pitching or it could be a long LONG season.

 

Yeah, I’m willing. For me, Moose is very overrated by Brewer fans. I’ll take Shaw and let Stearns work his magic to get some depth at that position in case it blows up.

[RollieTime]

Shaw to Moose is only a downgrade if he hits like last season. If he goes back to doing what he did in years prior with us, it’s not really a downgrade at all.

 

Are you willing to take that gamble, and possibly be left with the blackest of black holes at an offensive position that needs to be productive?

 

If Shaw tanks again, and that is what I am expecting, and you add him to Pina and Arcia, we better be upgrading the starting pitching or it could be a long LONG season.

 

Yeah, I’m willing. For me, Moose is very overrated by Brewer fans. I’ll take Shaw and let Stearns work his magic to get some depth at that position in case it blows up.

 

Moose is definitely a good player and I’ll agree to a point that he may be a little overrated. But who are you going to bring in to play third without it becoming a black hole? Rendon (way to expensive), Donaldson (again, probably pushing $20 million or so), Todd Frazier (very inconsistent during his career and big downgrade), or someone like Asdrubal Cabrera as an everyday third baseman (downgrade from Moose). You can count on Moose to hit .250, strikeout around 20% of the time which is fine, and hit 30 homers for you.

 

I guess one option to consider would be to keep Shaw, but bring in someone like Gregorius, hoping that Shaw bounces back while getting a big upgrade at SS. But is the risk worth it? If Moose is let go and Shaw is given the opportunity to be the everyday 3B again, Grandal would NEED to be back or having a possible bottom of the order of a struggling Shaw, Pina, Arcia, Pitcher could be an absolute nightmare.

[JosephC]

I have to admit, if I was a free agent I wouldn't see all that much difference between the Brewers and the Reds. Absolutely, the Brewers have been by far the better team recently, and I do have confidence in Stearns and Counsell. But they are both small market teams, and while the Reds weren't good last year they did make moves in an obvious effort to win (Gray, Puig, Wood, Bauer). I'd say chances are 80+% that the Brewers are the better team next year. In that years following that...not so sure about that. Have to admit that if I'm picking between Milwaukee and Cincinnati, I'd go with whatever team offered me the most money.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

If we are going to rely on Shaw at 3B, and lose Moose, that is a MAJOR downgrade. If we lose Grandal, and rely on Pina as our everyday C, that is a MAJOR downgrade.

 

They would have to add some MAJOR pitching to have any shot of contending imo.

 

I know, I know, there is lots of time, and lots of moves to be made, blah blah blah.

 

I know there will likely be posts of frustration about lack of free agent signings by the Brewers at some point but kudos for expressing yours before free agents are even allowed to sign.

 

This offseason is shaping up to be a fun one.

[TURBO]

If we are going to rely on Shaw at 3B, and lose Moose, that is a MAJOR downgrade. If we lose Grandal, and rely on Pina as our everyday C, that is a MAJOR downgrade.

 

They would have to add some MAJOR pitching to have any shot of contending imo.

 

I know, I know, there is lots of time, and lots of moves to be made, blah blah blah.

 

I know there will likely be posts of frustration about lack of free agent signings by the Brewers at some point but kudos for expressing yours before free agents are even allowed to sign.

 

This offseason is shaping up to be a fun one.

 

I think you read what I was saying completely wrong...

 

[Thurston Fluff]

Shaw to Moose is only a downgrade if he hits like last season. If he goes back to doing what he did in years prior with us, it’s not really a downgrade at all.

 

Are you willing to take that gamble, and possibly be left with the blackest of black holes at an offensive position that needs to be productive?

 

If Shaw tanks again, and that is what I am expecting, and you add him to Pina and Arcia, we better be upgrading the starting pitching or it could be a long LONG season.

 

Why are you expecting it? Not trying to be a wienie about it given the season he had. I'm just interesting in your reasoning behind that expectation. Is it because it hurts less to expect nothing, are you hoping to be pleasantly surprised, is there something in his hitting profile you don't like or some other reason altogether?

[trwi7]

Why are you expecting it? Not trying to be a wienie about it given the season he had. I'm just interesting in your reasoning behind that expectation. Is it because it hurts less to expect nothing, are you hoping to be pleasantly surprised, is there something in his hitting profile you don't like or some other reason altogether?

 

Wouldn't be the first time in the last decade that an older, not highly regarded 3rd baseman for the Brewers has a couple good years and completely falls apart.

[adambr2]

Shaw is a bit of an unusual case because he did have two really solid seasons back to back. 2 seasons isn't super sustained but it isn't a blip on the radar either.

 

That said, there were warning signs based on his history even during that time that his production probably wasnt sustainable.

 

While it would be nearly impossible for his production to be as bad again as it was in 2019, I also doubt that we ever again see the 4 WAR player from 2017 and 2018 again.

 

A Casey McGehee career trajectory going forward for him seems likeliest to me. If he can be an average starting 3rd baseman in 2020, that would be about the best I'd hope for.

[Brewcrewin07]

If they bring back neither Moose nor Grandal(I want both and some pitching), and I'm expecting they won't...they will be garbage again unfortunately. You just can't replace that kind of production offensively without pulling off some sort of major trade(and in the process hurting other parts of the team).They need upgrades lots of places(starting pitching, SS for sure), and fixing those spots, and letting Moose and Grandal walk, still isn't going to get you where you want to go.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If they bring back neither Moose nor Grandal(I want both and some pitching), and I'm expecting they won't...they will be garbage again unfortunately. You just can't replace that kind of production offensively without pulling off some sort of major trade(and in the process hurting other parts of the team).They need upgrades lots of places(starting pitching, SS for sure), and fixing those spots, and letting Moose and Grandal walk, still isn't going to get you where you want to go.

 

Sure ... garbage ... just like they were in 2018 without Grandal, and without Moose for most of the year.

[clancyphile]

Shaw is a bit of an unusual case because he did have two really solid seasons back to back. 2 seasons isn't super sustained but it isn't a blip on the radar either.

 

That said, there were warning signs based on his history even during that time that his production probably wasnt sustainable.

 

While it would be nearly impossible for his production to be as bad again as it was in 2019, I also doubt that we ever again see the 4 WAR player from 2017 and 2018 again.

 

A Casey McGehee career trajectory going forward for him seems likeliest to me. If he can be an average starting 3rd baseman in 2020, that would be about the best I'd hope for.

 

If the Crew can get some decent return, they should take the deal. If he is a left-handed McGehee, the Crew can't afford to wait for a rebound.

[Thurston Fluff]

Why are you expecting it? Not trying to be a wienie about it given the season he had. I'm just interesting in your reasoning behind that expectation. Is it because it hurts less to expect nothing, are you hoping to be pleasantly surprised, is there something in his hitting profile you don't like or some other reason altogether?

 

Wouldn't be the first time in the last decade that an older, not highly regarded 3rd baseman for the Brewers has a couple good years and completely falls apart.

 

There is a reason McGehee was picked up for nothing and the Brewers had to trade an above average major league reliever for Shaw. Shaw was a much better prospect than McGehee. McGehee had zero seasons in the minors with an OPS above 800. Shaw had one below it. Shaw's worst minor league numbers were close to McGehee's average season. Hell Shaw's bad season in Boston was only slightly worse than McGehee's career minor league numbers. Shaw may never be as good as he was his first two years here but to think he's more likely to put up last season's numbers going forward than what he did the rest of his career seems overly pessimistic.

[Minigoon]

Good. Guy is a cheater that should have been thrown out of the league years ago.

[brooks_quichenick]

Good. Guy is a POS cheater that should have been thrown out of the league years ago.

 

???

[PeaveyFury]

Based on a quick review of his posting history, I'm betting he's referring to Biogenesis.

[trwi7]

Why are you expecting it? Not trying to be a wienie about it given the season he had. I'm just interesting in your reasoning behind that expectation. Is it because it hurts less to expect nothing, are you hoping to be pleasantly surprised, is there something in his hitting profile you don't like or some other reason altogether?

 

Wouldn't be the first time in the last decade that an older, not highly regarded 3rd baseman for the Brewers has a couple good years and completely falls apart.

 

There is a reason McGehee was picked up for nothing and the Brewers had to trade an above average major league reliever for Shaw. Shaw was a much better prospect than McGehee. McGehee had zero seasons in the minors with an OPS above 800. Shaw had one below it. Shaw's worst minor league numbers were close to McGehee's average season. Hell Shaw's bad season in Boston was only slightly worse than McGehee's career minor league numbers. Shaw may never be as good as he was his first two years here but to think he's more likely to put up last season's numbers going forward than what he did the rest of his career seems overly pessimistic.

 

None of this changes the fact that Shaw wasn't highly regarded.

[Jopal78]

The Brewers were able to sign Lorenzo Cain because they gave the 32 year old player a five year contract.

The Brewers were able to sign Randy Wolf because they gave the 33 year old player a three year contract.

The Brewers were able to sign Kyle Lohse because they gave the 34 year old player a three year contract.

The Brewers were able to sign Matt Garza because they gave the 30 year old player a four year contract.

 

If my memory serves these contracts all contain extra year beyond what the 'pundits' suggested they would get.

 

Like wise, I'm sure Grandal will have half a dozen offers in the 3 year/60 million dollar tier. He will likely sign with the first team to give him a 4 year contract with an AAV of 20 million per season.

 

I think the Brewers could sign Grandal to a 4 year contract and back load the earnings to something like: 15 million in 2020, 18 million in 2021, 23 million in 2022, and 24 million in 2023. Under such a format, they'd retain Grandal for a lower price in 2020 than in 2019 allowing them more flexibility for next year's team. Then when Braun's contact ends after 2020, they'd still save money in the aggregate because there would be a step down from Braun's 21 million to Grandal's 18. Then they have zero guaranteed contracts on the books for 2023 and even if Yelich resigns they've carried two 20+ million dollar salaries before. The biggest question remains is it wise to give a 4 year contract to a 31 year old catcher

[A Swing and A Drive]

The Brewers were able to sign Lorenzo Cain because they gave the 32 year old player a five year contract.

The Brewers were able to sign Randy Wolf because they gave the 33 year old player a three year contract.

The Brewers were able to sign Kyle Lohse because they gave the 34 year old player a three year contract.

The Brewers were able to sign Matt Garza because they gave the 30 year old player a four year contract.

 

If my memory serves these contracts all contain extra year beyond what the 'pundits' suggested they would get.

 

Like wise, I'm sure Grandal will have half a dozen offers in the 3 year/60 million dollar tier. He will likely sign with the first team to give him a 4 year contract with an AAV of 20 million per season.

 

I think the Brewers could sign Grandal to a 4 year contract and back load the earnings to something like: 15 million in 2020, 18 million in 2021, 23 million in 2022, and 24 million in 2023. Under such a format, they'd retain Grandal for a lower price in 2020 than in 2019 allowing them more flexibility for next year's team. Then when Braun's contact ends after 2020, they'd still save money in the aggregate because there would be a step down from Braun's 21 million to Grandal's 18. Then they have zero guaranteed contracts on the books for 2023 and even if Yelich resigns they've carried two 20+ million dollar salaries before. The biggest question remains is it wise to give a 4 year contract to a 31 year old catcher

 

It is NOT wise to give a 31 year old catcher a 4 year contract.

 

The Brewers should be putting all their efforts into using money from Braun's salary coming off the books after next year into signing Christian Yelich to an extension.

[MrTPlush]

The Brewers should be putting all their efforts into using money from Braun's salary coming off the books after next year into signing Christian Yelich to an extension.

 

Why? So two years into that mega deal we are wishing we didn't have it just like Braun's contract?

[PeaveyFury]

The Brewers should be putting all their efforts into using money from Braun's salary coming off the books after next year into signing Christian Yelich to an extension.

 

Why? So two years into that mega deal we are wishing we didn't have it just like Braun's contract?

 

Couldn't agree more.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Because otherwise Christian Yelich will only be a Milwaukee Brewers for 3 more seasons and will simply leave to the highest bidding team.

 

He will only be 30 when he is set to hit free agency.

 

The Brewers could look at extending his current deal 2-3 years and it would not be taking that big of a risk for a player of his caliber.

 

The Brewers could entice him by upping his yearly salary for 2020-22 with an extension.

 

Makes a ton of sense to at least attempt for an elite franchise player in his prime.