Grandal declines mutual option

[adambr2]

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2019/10/31/20942218/milwaukee-brewers-yasmani-grandal-to-decline-mutual-option-will-be-pursued-by-cincinnati-reds

 

This was never anything more than a formality, but there it is.

 

It was a fun couple of hours when we thought this was a team option, though.

[JosephC]

Lots of people think he'll get big numbers but, when considering what has happened in free agency the last couple of years, I tend to think the numbers will be a bit lower. He turns 31 about 1 week from now and pretty much all teams will be factoring in the age decline at this point. I'm thinking 3 years in the 48 to 54 million range.

 

If he stays in the 3 year, 48 million dollar area, I definitely think the Brewers should be in on him. I figure they'll probably have 30 million to spend, and I wouldn't mind seeing them dedicate just over half of that to Grandal.

[pacopete4]

I hope he signs the big one so we don’t have a full season bashing them Brewers front office like we tend to do with these situations.

[Eye Black]

Well on a slightly related note the Brewers have picked up Manny Piña’s $1.85 million option (Link).

[MNBrew]

Well on a slightly related note the Brewers have picked up Manny Piña’s $1.85 million option (Link).

Good move. A no-brainer.

[sveumrules]

Lots of people think he'll get big numbers but, when considering what has happened in free agency the last couple of years, I tend to think the numbers will be a bit lower. He turns 31 about 1 week from now and pretty much all teams will be factoring in the age decline at this point. I'm thinking 3 years in the 48 to 54 million range.

 

If he stays in the 3 year, 48 million dollar area, I definitely think the Brewers should be in on him. I figure they'll probably have 30 million to spend, and I wouldn't mind seeing them dedicate just over half of that to Grandal.

 

Agreed. He essentially had the same year in 2019 as he had in 2018, except now he is one year older.

 

I’d be fine with something around 3/50. There is considerable risk, no doubt, but no other catcher offers remotely similar reward.

[Eye Black]

The biggest difference for Grandal as compared to last off-season is he is no longer tethered to the qualifying offer and loss of a draft pick.

 

My belief is that he ends up at the high end of that range, or even slightly higher. I would guess he’ll receive an AAV between $17.5 to $19 million over either 3 or 4 years.

 

I think only a team or two will be willing to add a 4th year. My prediction is he ends up with a 4 year deal for $72 million. I have a bad feeling the Reds are indeed his most likely landing spot.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The biggest difference for Grandal as compared to last off-season is he is no longer tethered to the qualifying offer and loss of a draft pick.

 

My belief is that he ends up at the high end of that range, or even slightly higher. I would guess he’ll receive an AAV between $17.5 to $19 million over either 3 or 4 years.

 

I think only a team or two will be willing to add a 4th year. My prediction is he ends up with a 4 year deal for $72 million. I have a bad feeling the Reds are indeed his most likely landing spot.

 

Just my opinion, but perhaps Grandal won't want to go to a completely rudderless, poorly run organization like the Reds at this point in his career. That team sucks, and he's not going to make them a contender. They got a bunch of press last spring and sucked again. To me, they suck until they prove they won't suck, and they haven't proven anything.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Interesting question about wanting to continue playing for a contending team.

 

Hypothetically, if you are Grandal and the Reds offer you 4 years/$80 million but the highest the Brewers are willing to go is 4 years/$72 million, which offer do you take?

 

Many fans think that it's a no-brainer that Grandal would want to take the Brewers offer in this scenario, for the reasons of returning to a contending team on which you have a bond formed with teammates, etc.

 

However, 8 million dollars is still 8 million dollars.

 

I still think money is always the bottom line and the main factor for free agents decisions, ultimately.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Interesting question about wanting to continue playing for a contending team.

 

Hypothetically, if you are Grandal and the Reds offer you 4 years/$80 million but the highest the Brewers are willing to go is 4 years/$72 million, which offer do you take?

 

Many fans think that it's a no-brainer that Grandal would want to take the Brewers offer in this scenario, for the reasons of returning to a contending team on which you have a bond formed with teammates, etc.

 

However, 8 million dollars is still 8 million dollars.

 

I still think money is always the bottom line and the main factor for free agents decisions, ultimately.

 

Good point. There have been veterans that have taken discounts to play for a contender, but it certainly doesn't happen often. It wasn't like Grandal took the Brewers' offer last year because he wanted to play for a contender. It was simply the biggest per year deal he was offered.

 

But I think that if the Reds and Brewers offer similar deals, Grandal would likely take the Brewers' offer. But the Reds have been known to hand out ridiculously asinine deals in the past, so them throwing $80+ million at Grandal wouldn't surprise me.

[tmwiese55]

Guys, I by no means would be sleeping on the Reds as a legit threat next year.

 

Would love Grandal back but I think I just cut it off at 3 years as a hard line. Unless there is a noticeable yearly discount to get it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Guys, I by no means would be sleeping on the Reds as a legit threat next year.

 

Would love Grandal back but I think I just cut it off at 3 years as a hard line. Unless there is a noticeable yearly discount to get it.

 

That is pretty much verbatim what many said about the Reds last year, and they were bad again. I throw them into the same bucket as the Phillies and Mets ... they are bad until they prove otherwise, regardless of how much money they spend on supposed "upgrades" or how much preseason hype they get. They have talent, but it is still a poorly run organization in my opinion.

[82brewcrew82]

Guys, I by no means would be sleeping on the Reds as a legit threat next year.

 

Would love Grandal back but I think I just cut it off at 3 years as a hard line. Unless there is a noticeable yearly discount to get it.

Obviously there is an entire off season to go but I'd take it a step further and say that if the Reds do sign Grandal, another bat and a couple of top end bullpen arms, I'm not sure they aren't the better team. And yes, they have the money and prospects to easily accomplish that.

[MrTPlush]

As nice as Grandal's year was a few things concern me. It was heavily buoyed by an increased walk rate...can that actually be consistent? If he comes back down to earth that is a huge hit to his value. Cain had that happen this year. He also had the same slugging percentage in 2019 as 2018 even though he went to a better ballpark. To me that was a little disappointing that his only increase in offensive production was taking some additional walks.

 

I don't think he gets 4 years from anyone and if they do, have fun, hopefully not us.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I look at the Grandal situation this way. Back in 2016, and hope of contending in the next few years, the Brewers rebuffed 30-year-old Jonathon Lucroy's attempt and talking extension, and traded him off. He was a home-grown, extremely popular player who was still very productive. Is Stearns going to suddenly reverse course and hand a very lucrative long-term deal to Grandal, who is the same age? Do they see Grandal as a different type of player from Lucroy ... one that can maintain his offensive production while playing catcher into his mid-30s? Because they surely made the right decision on Lucroy.

[clancyphile]

Three of the top four comparisons to Grandal through age 30 are Todd Hundley, Charles Johnson, and Jarrod Saltamachia.

 

Hundley had a falloff due to injury after age 31, never played more than 100 games. Saltamacchia also fell off, but was never at the heights Grandal was. Johnson actually held up through ages 31 and 32. His age 33 year saw a drop, but a sample size of 55 ABs... so?

 

The jump in the walk rate is intriguing. A one-off? Or not?

 

Grandal came to Milwaukee for the high AAV. I'd go 3 years, $67.5 million, with $15 million deferred.

 

Maybe a higher AAV can offset a three-year deal.

[Thurston Fluff]

Interesting question about wanting to continue playing for a contending team.

 

Hypothetically, if you are Grandal and the Reds offer you 4 years/$80 million but the highest the Brewers are willing to go is 4 years/$72 million, which offer do you take?

 

Many fans think that it's a no-brainer that Grandal would want to take the Brewers offer in this scenario, for the reasons of returning to a contending team on which you have a bond formed with teammates, etc.

 

However, 8 million dollars is still 8 million dollars.

 

I still think money is always the bottom line and the main factor for free agents decisions, ultimately.

 

The reason Grandal took the one year offer last season was because he didn't want to lower the average annual salary for catchers by taking a lower AAV multi year deal. He mentioned how those who came before him created the market that got him that much per year and he wasn't going to be the one who lowered it for future players. So I doubt he's going to take a lower deal just to stick with the better team.

[MrTPlush]

I look at the Grandal situation this way. Back in 2016, and hope of contending in the next few years, the Brewers rebuffed 30-year-old Jonathon Lucroy's attempt and talking extension, and traded him off. He was a home-grown, extremely popular player who was still very productive. Is Stearns going to suddenly reverse course and hand a very lucrative long-term deal to Grandal, who is the same age? Do they see Grandal as a different type of player from Lucroy ... one that can maintain his offensive production while playing catcher into his mid-30s? Because they surely made the right decision on Lucroy.

 

A few things:

 

1) To be fair we didn’t know when we would contend. I’m sure the Brewers front office thought 2019, maybe 2018. Not saying they were shooting for those years, but they are just like us and are probably figuring into when they think the team is likely to take off. If we were contending or knew we were really close I think their viewpoint would have been different.

 

2) David Stearns gave old Lorenzo Cain a huge deal that, to be completely honest, screamed incoming disaster at some point. Whether that be year one or year four etc. I don’t think it is crazy to think Stearns would be willing to hand out another questionable deal to an older player at his respective position.

[monty57]

2) David Stearns gave old Lorenzo Cain a huge deal that, to be completely honest, screamed incoming disaster at some point. Weather that be Year one or year four etc. I don’t think it is crazy to think Stearns would be willing to hand out another questionable deal to an older player at his respective position.

 

This is my concern with signing Grandal to a 3-4 year deal. We can't afford many contracts where we're paying big money (for the Brewers) for "okay" play. Braun is nearing the end of his deal. He's been "okay" the past couple seasons, but I think most fans will be glad to see the money freed up for better use.

 

Now we have Cain, who looks like he'll be "okay" for the next few seasons after signing the biggest deal in franchise history. I don't want us to continually have 30-50% of our roster locked up into a few players who are "okay."

 

Grandal was a great pick up on essentially a one-year deal. I don't want a 33-34 year old Grandal making a decent percentage of team payroll and under-performing. Unless you can get him on another short-term deal, I'd probably pass.

 

Pina/Nottingham/Frietas should be able to give us around league average results next year. Meanwhile, third base, shortstop, and especially pitching could use an upgrade. The rules are changing, so we won't be able to bring up as many pitchers next September to play the way they have the past two years. We need quality over quantity going forward, so it's probably time to spend some resources to acquire pitching.

[jerichoholicninja]

Grandal was going to sign with the crappy Mets before his his fake "not wanting to hurt other catchers" excuse. He'll sign with whoever offers the most money, regardless of the integrity of said organization's rudder.

[long ball]

Grandal worked out perfectly for the brewers. Even during his power outage mid season he was good defensively and had a high OBP. He's #1 on my realistic wishlist. (obviously Cole, strasburg, and rendon are the top 3).

 

I think worst case scenario for Grandal would be a similar 1/$20mm deal. Best case would probably be 4/$80mm.

 

I think it settles in the middle. 3/$55-60mm. I hope it's with the brewers.

[rickh150]

Offering a 3 year deal to further match Yelich and Cain

Offering 3 years for 50 million.... willing to nudge a bit up on $ but not years

[dlk9s]

He's going to go with whichever team gives him the most money. So will Cole. So will the other top free agents.

 

And there's a big assumption that we're going to be a "contender" next season.

[Lathund]

As nice as Grandal's year was a few things concern me. It was heavily buoyed by an increased walk rate...can that actually be consistent?

 

I'd be more concerned if it was the other way around tbh, as in the change being dependent on batting average or HR rate. Someone taking (a lot) more walks (and striking out less too) will be due to a change in approach. An increase in batting average could be due to an improvement in their game (Hitting the ball harder, changed oppo/pull% etc), or it could be due to the randomness that still exists in batted ball success even after 5-600 plate appearances, or changes in the baseball.

 

Grandal walked more, struck out less, and hit the ball harder than he had in the past couple of seasons. Also had fewer PB/WP than in the past which is an often cited weakness of his. There's always the possibility that he'll decline of course, but there's absolutely nothing to suggest that the decline has already started. Chronological age is also only a proxy for what actually matters, which is biological aging. There's obviously a high degree of correlation between the two, but that's not to say all 31 year olds should be treated the same. Hopefully the coaching and training staff will have a decent idea of where Grandal might end up on that spectrum, and that can help inform their decision.

 

Also in regards to Cain who has been discussed in some earlier posts, I'm not overly concerned either. Will he repeat 2018? Probably not. But in 2019 he actually hit the ball harder (Both in terms of EV and hard hit %) than in 2018 and still played excellent defense. Yet that resulted in a .357 BABIP last year, and a .301 BABIP this year; neither of which is likely to be representative of who he is. K% and BB% were a bit worse, but were in line with his career numbers. It's fair to expect some decline over the coming seasons, but I also don't think that 2019 is his true level or the level we can expect the decline to continue from.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He's going to go with whichever team gives him the most money. So will Cole. So will the other top free agents.

 

And there's a big assumption that we're going to be a "contender" next season.

 

Just like these crap teams are crap until they prove they are not, the Brewers are contenders until they prove they are not. The Brewers have a ton of talent coming back, even if they lose Moose and Grandal. It's obviously a long way from opening day, but this team is coming off back-to-back playoff appearances. I don't think there is any reason to believe that they are suddenly going to be bad.