Hader trade ideas

[Warning Track Power]

Holy smokes! Aren’t we the ones who’s supposed to get top prospects in a Hader trade and not the other team?

 

I think the point is that relatively speaking, a young SP with ace potential has far more value than we think he does.

Absolutely and it is why the Brewers should continue to hold onto Hader until someone meets their demands for what they are looking for, be it a high-end SP like Gore or an impact bat like 1B Andrew Vaughn from the White Sox.

 

For what it's worth, I still think the White Sox are the place for Hader. They are set in the everyday lineup with Anderson-Robert-Jimenez-Abreu-Moncada-Grandal-Eaton-Madrigal and at the top of the rotation with Giolitio-Keuchel-Lynn. I understand they signed Hendriks to be their closer but trading for Hader allows him to go back into that multi-inning shutdown role leading to the 9th. If I am them, I am constantly calling the Brewers to try and work something out for Hader and offering Vaughn or Kopech as the headliner. Hader in their pen makes them the AL favorites to me.

[Warning Track Power]

Holy smokes! Aren’t we the ones who’s supposed to get top prospects in a Hader trade and not the other team?

 

I think the point is that relatively speaking, a young SP with ace potential has far more value than we think he does.

Absolutely and it is why the Brewers should continue to hold onto Hader until someone meets their demands for what they are looking for, be it a high-end SP like Gore or an impact bat like 1B Andrew Vaughn from the White Sox.

 

For what it's worth, I still think the White Sox are the place for Hader. They are set in the everyday lineup with Anderson-Robert-Jimenez-Abreu-Moncada-Grandal-Eaton-Madrigal and at the top of the rotation with Giolitio-Keuchel-Lynn. I understand they signed Hendriks to be their closer but trading for Hader allows him to go back into that multi-inning shutdown role leading to the 9th. If I am them, I am constantly calling the Brewers to try and work something out for Hader and offering Vaughn or Kopech as the headliner. Hader in their pen makes them the AL favorites to me.

[JohnBriggs12]

Holy smokes! Aren’t we the ones who’s supposed to get top prospects in a Hader trade and not the other team?

 

I think the point is that relatively speaking, a young SP with ace potential has far more value than we think he does.

 

Then why aren't we talking about trading Burnes?

[JohnBriggs12]

Holy smokes! Aren’t we the ones who’s supposed to get top prospects in a Hader trade and not the other team?

 

I think the point is that relatively speaking, a young SP with ace potential has far more value than we think he does.

 

Then why aren't we talking about trading Burnes?

[adambr2]

We were, like one month ago. But it would rightfully take a massive haul.

[adambr2]

We were, like one month ago. But it would rightfully take a massive haul.

[HiAndTight]

So are you saying you wouldn't want Gore in a trade for Hader?

 

I'm not sure what your point is really...

 

Seems odd that you are projecting a possible TJ surgery, or low inning total.

 

I'm with those who are high on Gore. I'd trade Hader straight up for Gore this very instant.

 

No it's not that Im not high on Gore. I don't like the idea to trade Hader plus for him.

His innings limitations is a cause for concern unless you kept him in the minors this season and the next. But would anyone be confident Milw would do so? So concern is wasting team control a year even 2 and prematurely playing him at MLB level. Now you leave yourself with 4years of control to basically prune him for large markets to sign away. A TJ injury is a very good threat from a HS drafted SP building up his innings. Hader helps this team for 3 seasons now and Gore I don't see doing so until after 3 seasons pass. When I say that I mean pitching meaningful Sept and Playoff innings.

Sorta feels like trading up in the 1st rd to select your next QB.

 

 

 

I go back to how high you were on Corbin Burnes and how you argued he had as much value as Walker Buehler just a few starts into last season and the only conclusion I can come to is that you just place a far-FAR greater value on pitchers in the Brewers farm system or under team control.

 

Also...yes, I would trust the Brewers to develop Gore. I'm not sure why he needs two years in the minors just to work on his inning limit though. I would assume the Padres were having him throw regularly last year.

 

 

Incidentally, we're basically at the place in your most pessimistic scenario in which we're with Burnes and Woodruff where we're "Now you leave yourself with 4years of control to basically prune him for large markets to sign away."

 

Of, Gore could have a similar season to Walker Buehler in 2018(he'd only thrown 109 IP in the minors and he didn't spend one of those seasons at the team's alternate site throwing regularly in simulated games).

 

 

We wouldn't even entertain a trade like this if someone was asking us. Even last year with Corbin Burnes coming off an ERA of ~9, I doubt you'd have entertained such a trade...so why would the Padres take a premium talent like Gore and trade him for a reliever? Even a really good one. Pitchers with Gore's pedigree are the type you build your staff around...hell, your team. Not guys who are PART of a trade for a reliever. Even a really good one.

[HiAndTight]

So are you saying you wouldn't want Gore in a trade for Hader?

 

I'm not sure what your point is really...

 

Seems odd that you are projecting a possible TJ surgery, or low inning total.

 

I'm with those who are high on Gore. I'd trade Hader straight up for Gore this very instant.

 

No it's not that Im not high on Gore. I don't like the idea to trade Hader plus for him.

His innings limitations is a cause for concern unless you kept him in the minors this season and the next. But would anyone be confident Milw would do so? So concern is wasting team control a year even 2 and prematurely playing him at MLB level. Now you leave yourself with 4years of control to basically prune him for large markets to sign away. A TJ injury is a very good threat from a HS drafted SP building up his innings. Hader helps this team for 3 seasons now and Gore I don't see doing so until after 3 seasons pass. When I say that I mean pitching meaningful Sept and Playoff innings.

Sorta feels like trading up in the 1st rd to select your next QB.

 

 

 

I go back to how high you were on Corbin Burnes and how you argued he had as much value as Walker Buehler just a few starts into last season and the only conclusion I can come to is that you just place a far-FAR greater value on pitchers in the Brewers farm system or under team control.

 

Also...yes, I would trust the Brewers to develop Gore. I'm not sure why he needs two years in the minors just to work on his inning limit though. I would assume the Padres were having him throw regularly last year.

 

 

Incidentally, we're basically at the place in your most pessimistic scenario in which we're with Burnes and Woodruff where we're "Now you leave yourself with 4years of control to basically prune him for large markets to sign away."

 

Of, Gore could have a similar season to Walker Buehler in 2018(he'd only thrown 109 IP in the minors and he didn't spend one of those seasons at the team's alternate site throwing regularly in simulated games).

 

 

We wouldn't even entertain a trade like this if someone was asking us. Even last year with Corbin Burnes coming off an ERA of ~9, I doubt you'd have entertained such a trade...so why would the Padres take a premium talent like Gore and trade him for a reliever? Even a really good one. Pitchers with Gore's pedigree are the type you build your staff around...hell, your team. Not guys who are PART of a trade for a reliever. Even a really good one.

[Eye Black]

Padres beat reporter Dennis Lin wrote an article for The Athletic today in which he said it would be surprising if the Brewers and Padres reconvened and struck a trade agreement. He said people familiar with the discussions this off-season said the Brewers were seeking a package well above what it took them to obtain Joe Musgrove (which okay, I hope so), and that Milwaukee wanted a combination of both controllable major leaguers and high-upside prospects. Lin then indicated that one of the sticking points for the Padres was not wanting to give up LHP Ryan Weathers in a deal.

 

So apparently Ryan Weathers was a hang-up for the Padres. The semi-ironic thing immediately following the Hader trade update in Lin's article is that he discusses the elbow injury to Padres bullpen member Jose Castillo. He says former Brewers first base prospect Nick Ramirez (Brewers 4th round pick in 2011) is now a candidate to make the Padres bullpen.

[wibadgers23]

I’d rather see the Padres win the West over the Dodgers but part of me wants their bullpen to totally implode just to stick it to them. I’m glad Stearns is not budging.

[PeaveyFury]

I would think if Gore was off limits in a Hader deal, as he likely is, Weathers would be a logical demand for the Brewers. As noted, if they're not willing to budge on a guy like him, no deal is happening.

[brewmann04]

No Need to to Trade Hader unless David gets what he wants .

[sveumrules]

Holy smokes! Aren’t we the ones who’s supposed to get top prospects in a Hader trade and not the other team?

 

I think the point is that relatively speaking, a young SP with ace potential has far more value than we think he does.

 

Then why aren't we talking about trading Burnes?

 

Hader costs about 10x more, hits free agency a year sooner, will probably throw around 50% fewer innings & we have less depth in the rotation than the bullpen.

[brewcrewdue80]

Gore is #3 on the MLB Pipeline, #2 on Keith Law's list, and #10 on Baseball America's list. Using the Point of Pittsburgh surplus values, which historically has been pretty accurate when looking at trades that are made, I would estimate Gore's prospect surplus value to be 85.4 million. I would put Hader in the low 30 millions.

 

A fair trade involving Hader and Gore would probably look something like-

 

Brewers get-

LHP - MacKenzie Gore

 

Padres get-

LHP - Josh Hader

SS - Brice Turang

OF - Garrett Mitchell

C - Mario Feliciano

 

And thats absolutely insane for a kid with 183 professional ip approaching 4 years from drafted.

Hader was on the SP trail who ran out of time to become a SP due to how good he was but how much further in IP he needed to become a full season SP. Gore has 0 chance to give you more than 170IP the next 2 years. But he's going to be pushing for a call up (if the rankings are spot on) by end of this season. Certainly early in to next season. He may fall in to high-end RP when all is done.

Julio Urias comes to mind. A top 3 SP prospect who surpassed the minors level before he was ready for a season full of Starting in the Majors. Now 5 seasons in he has a career 3.3 WAR. 172IP as a Starter to. 67IP as a reliever. TJ was needed by him. See how bad that derailed his career.

 

Here goes one of many examples why that trade proposal is insane-

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/03/astros-forrest-whitley-suffering-from-right-ucl-sprain.html

 

Forrest Whitley was inside the top ten prospect rankings. An injury plus later, he has 0 ML IP what will now be at minimum 4years after such ranking. His prospect ranking as dwindled what does his value as a #41-80 prospect look like in a Hader trade? Oh and you know it'll drop maybe out of the top 100 altogether. Every year you can likely take a top 20 pitching prospect and see them go down to injury or prospect ranking tanks. 1st rd pitching selections have so much bust potential as the helium from just the draft often overinflates where that prospect should rank. I know it will never happen but it'd be nice if a prospect ranking site had a minimum requirement to be top 100 in first place. 1st rd picks arent just inserted in to top 15-40s because they were on most top 10 pre-draft lists.

[adambr2]

This risk isn't unique to young pitchers. About the same time Whitley was leading lists, Corey Knebel was one of the game's top closers.

[sveumrules]

Gore is #3 on the MLB Pipeline, #2 on Keith Law's list, and #10 on Baseball America's list. Using the Point of Pittsburgh surplus values, which historically has been pretty accurate when looking at trades that are made, I would estimate Gore's prospect surplus value to be 85.4 million. I would put Hader in the low 30 millions.

 

A fair trade involving Hader and Gore would probably look something like-

 

Brewers get-

LHP - MacKenzie Gore

 

Padres get-

LHP - Josh Hader

SS - Brice Turang

OF - Garrett Mitchell

C - Mario Feliciano

 

And thats absolutely insane for a kid with 183 professional ip approaching 4 years from drafted.

Hader was on the SP trail who ran out of time to become a SP due to how good he was but how much further in IP he needed to become a full season SP. Gore has 0 chance to give you more than 170IP the next 2 years. But he's going to be pushing for a call up (if the rankings are spot on) by end of this season. Certainly early in to next season. He may fall in to high-end RP when all is done.

Julio Urias comes to mind. A top 3 SP prospect who surpassed the minors level before he was ready for a season full of Starting in the Majors. Now 5 seasons in he has a career 3.3 WAR. 172IP as a Starter to. 67IP as a reliever. TJ was needed by him. See how bad that derailed his career.

 

Here goes one of many examples why that trade proposal is insane-

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/03/astros-forrest-whitley-suffering-from-right-ucl-sprain.html

 

Forrest Whitley was inside the top ten prospect rankings. An injury plus later, he has 0 ML IP what will now be at minimum 4years after such ranking. His prospect ranking as dwindled what does his value as a #41-80 prospect look like in a Hader trade? Oh and you know it'll drop maybe out of the top 100 altogether. Every year you can likely take a top 20 pitching prospect and see them go down to injury or prospect ranking tanks. 1st rd pitching selections have so much bust potential as the helium from just the draft often overinflates where that prospect should rank. I know it will never happen but it'd be nice if a prospect ranking site had a minimum requirement to be top 100 in first place. 1st rd picks arent just inserted in to top 15-40s because they were on most top 10 pre-draft lists.

 

Yes, pitching prospects bust, even the most highly rated ones. That bust rate is figured into the surplus value calculation.

 

Sure, there's a chance Gore is never an effective MLB pitcher. There's also a chance he turns in SP1 level results for his six years of team control at salaries even the Brewers could afford.

 

It's not like his prospect ranking is based entirely on his draft position.

 

He posted a 34/7 K/BB ration in 21 innings at age 18 in rookie ball after being drafted, a 74/18 K/BB ratio in 60 innings at age 19 in A ball & a 135/28 K/BB ratio in 101 innings between A+/AA at age 20.

[adambr2]

Draft helium isn't unique to pitching prospects, either. Corey Ray was immediately a top 30 prospect after the Brewers drafted him and we know where he ended up.

 

Orlando Arcia was the #6 prospect in baseball in 2016. Sometimes they live up to the hype and sometimes they don't.

 

Pointing to any one singular prospect not panning out or having their career ruined by injuries doesn't prove anything or devalue a current prospect any more.

[sveumrules]

Over the last five seasons, there have been eleven pitchers to put up at least 17 WAR. Here is a look at how they stacked up as prospects...

 

Player (5 year WAR | peak prospect ranking): Scherzer (27.9 | #66), deGrom (25.7 | UR), Sale (22.7 | #19), Verlander (22.3 | #8), Cole (20.6 | #3), Kershaw (18.9 | #5), Nola (18.3 | #37), Kluber (18.2 | UR), Strasburg (17.9 | #1), Greinke (17.6 | #14) & Bauer (17.0 | #9).

 

Of those eleven that is five top 10, two top 20, two 35-70 range & two unranked prospects.

 

Obviously Verlander is hurt, but all of the remaining ten pitchers (except Kluber) come in among the top 21 projected starters for 2021 by ZiPS. Here is a look at how they stacked up as prospects...

 

Player (2021 ZiPS WAR | peak prospect ranking): Giolito (5.8 | #3), Cole (5.7 | #3), Bieber (5.7 | UR), deGrom (5.1 | UR), Scherzer (4.6 | #66), Bauer (4.4 | #9), Nola (4.3 | #37), Buehler (4.0 | #13), Marquez (3.9 | #53), Flaherty (3.9 | #38), Castillo (3.7 | UR), Corbin (3.5 | UR), Berrios (3.5 | #17), Kershaw (3.4 | #5), Strasburg (3.4 | #1), Sale (3.4 | #19), Woody (3.2 | #61), Gray (3.1 | #65), Yu (3.1 | #4), Glasnow (3.1 | #9) & Greinke (3.1 | #14)

 

So that is seven top 10, four top 20, six 35-70 range & four unranked prospects.

 

There are no guarantees of couse, but your best bet at getting a top of the rotation pitcher is to have a highly ranked pitching prospect or the Cleveland Indians development staff.

[MadThinker88]

......

So that is seven top 10, four top 20, six 35-70 range & four unranked prospects.

 

There are no guarantees of couse, but your best bet at getting a top of the rotation pitcher is to have a highly ranked pitching prospect or the Cleveland Indians development staff.

 

Spring Training, 2017... Some youngsters watching Corey Kluber getting work in on a back field. Two of them are now in the CLE rotation...

[HiAndTight]

 

Forrest Whitley was inside the top ten prospect rankings. An injury plus later, he has 0 ML IP what will now be at minimum 4years after such ranking. His prospect ranking as dwindled what does his value as a #41-80 prospect look like in a Hader trade? Oh and you know it'll drop maybe out of the top 100 altogether. Every year you can likely take a top 20 pitching prospect and see them go down to injury or prospect ranking tanks. 1st rd pitching selections have so much bust potential as the helium from just the draft often overinflates where that prospect should rank. I know it will never happen but it'd be nice if a prospect ranking site had a minimum requirement to be top 100 in first place. 1st rd picks arent just inserted in to top 15-40s because they were on most top 10 pre-draft lists.

 

Ok, but how does this prove you right about Gore?

 

You posted a pretty mis-leading stat about him "only" pitching 183 innings "going on his 4th year" in the minors...which we all know is due to a unique situation in which no minor league pitchers pitcher last year.

 

He reached AA at 20 years old and was dominant that year in HiA and very good in AA. So, assuming a normal progression, he likely throws ~140 innings in 2020 between AA and AAA(maybe even reaches the big leagues)...and then this inning limit you've created is a small hindrance early on, but little else.

 

Whitley had more red flags(50 game suspension for PEDs, injuries prior to that).

 

But two more points;

 

A-The "trade proposal" you're stuck on, the one in which we give up players along with Hader...wasn't a proposal, it was an attempt to show you how much value Gore has and an example of the perceived value of the players involved.

 

B-One pitcher undergoing TJ means almost nothing. Most power arms now have TJ surgery at SOME point. That a pitcher in the Astros org had it has absolutely nothing to do with a pitcher in the Padres and in no way lowers his value by the mere fact both pitch professionally.

[HiAndTight]

This risk isn't unique to young pitchers. About the same time Whitley was leading lists, Corey Knebel was one of the game's top closers.

 

 

Also, Knebel could very easily be among the games' top closers this year and I'd love to have Whitley in the Brewers farm system, TJ or not.

 

So while TJ obviously lowers a prospect's immediate value, it's also about 90 pct recovery rate at this point. In fact, many pitchers actually at a tick or two.

 

College pitchers who are out due to TJ have regularly seen their draft stock fall very little, if at all. Teams are a little more forward-thinking than this when talking about kids in their early 20's.

[Eye Black]

Jim Bowden in today's article for The Athletic discussed the status of the trade discussions in regards to Josh Hader and the Padres.

 

Bowden said the teams talked, but were not close to a deal. He said the Padres would not part with a package like SS C.J. Abrams and LHP Adrian Morejón (insinuating that was the Brewers request). He said he's been told the talks are dead.

[PeaveyFury]

Bowden said the teams talked, but were not close to a deal. He said the Padres would not part with a package like SS C.J. Abrams and LHP Adrian Morejón (insinuating that was the Brewers request). He said he's been told the talks are dead.

 

Abrams and Morejon are where I'd start as well, and if that wasn't acceptable to the Padres, I'm not surprised it's dead.

[brewmann04]

I agree if we don't get what he wants move on.

[HiAndTight]

Bowden said the teams talked, but were not close to a deal. He said the Padres would not part with a package like SS C.J. Abrams and LHP Adrian Morejón (insinuating that was the Brewers request). He said he's been told the talks are dead.

 

Abrams and Morejon are where I'd start as well, and if that wasn't acceptable to the Padres, I'm not surprised it's dead.

 

 

Sure...and I can see why the Pads would pass on that deal at this time. I'd think they could make another blockbuster trade with a top 10 prospect who has enormous upside and Morejon.

 

That seems like a lot for Hader to me. Maybe Abrams and another pitcher with a lower ceiling, but both of them? That seems like the top pieces of a trade they could make in-season for another TOR arm or a middle-of-the-order bat.

 

If they could get just Abrams for Hader, I'd jump at that.