Hader trade ideas

[CheeseheadInQC]

The Padres made a lot of big trades without giving up much from their top tier of prospects but in doing so almost emptied out their second tier. The top 5 is still really impressive, but any significant prospect-based package almost has to be headlined by one of those five at this point.

[Jopal78]

The Padres made a lot of big trades without giving up much from their top tier of prospects but in doing so almost emptied out their second tier. The top 5 is still really impressive, but any significant prospect-based package almost has to be headlined by one of those five at this point.

 

At one point, I think players in a minor league system were somewhat undervalued. However, with the skyrocketing cost of acquiring major league talent through free agency, every team now knows they have great value.

 

That is why the type of trades (where a team gives up a Top MLB prospect/s for a star veteran) hardly ever happen nowadays, and certainly not in the offseason.

 

Verlander, Greinke, Darvish, Stanton, Arenado etc. these type of trades are indicative of the star veteran type of trade now: A club almost giving a player away just to get out from underneath a huge contract.

[DR28]

Yeah, I'm not impressed by San Diego's bullpen. They could be very good, but I don't think they will be.

 

Hader makes a ton of sense for them.

 

Hader makes a ton of sense for us as well... We can win the Central, then anything can happen in the playoffs.

 

Hader isnt a FA until 2024, we have NO reason to trade the best reliever in baseball.

 

OK. Did I say otherwise?

 

You said he makes a ton of sense for Padres and I was pointing out he makes a ton of sense for us as well.

[sveumrules]

We're a couple years too late now, so we might as well hold onto him and use him to win now. Unfortunately, we don't have a lot going for us in the minors, so I fear that this Yeli-Hiura-Woodruff-Burnes window is going to be pretty short and not quite good enough to make any real noise. I think the time was 2 years ago when we could have restocked our farm (and now team) a la the Carlos Gomez trade. Our future would be much brighter if that was the case. We aren't going to win anything significant by signing stopgap players for half the roster every season. At some point we need to trade away talent to get LOTS of YOUNG unproven talent back. And, of course, we need about a 4 year window where we get a bunch of hits in the draft.

 

Two years ago? So you're saying we should have traded Hader after winning the most games in the NL & missing the World Series by one game against the Dodgers in 2018? Who would you have dealt him for that both kept the team competitive over the next two seasons & better positioned us for 2021 forward?

 

The last four first round picks all look pretty good so far. Hiura is already in MLB & Turang/Small/Mitchell are the consensus top three prospects in the system. Rasmussen has already debuted as a 6th rounder from 2018. Both pitching development & efforts in Latin America are the best they've ever been in franchise history since Stearns & company took over.

 

I believe our farm is in a better position than the surface level rankings indicate.

[Warning Track Power]

We're a couple years too late now, so we might as well hold onto him and use him to win now. Unfortunately, we don't have a lot going for us in the minors, so I fear that this Yeli-Hiura-Woodruff-Burnes window is going to be pretty short and not quite good enough to make any real noise. I think the time was 2 years ago when we could have restocked our farm (and now team) a la the Carlos Gomez trade. Our future would be much brighter if that was the case. We aren't going to win anything significant by signing stopgap players for half the roster every season. At some point we need to trade away talent to get LOTS of YOUNG unproven talent back. And, of course, we need about a 4 year window where we get a bunch of hits in the draft.

 

Two years ago? So you're saying we should have traded Hader after winning the most games in the NL & missing the World Series by one game against the Dodgers in 2018? Who would you have dealt him for that both kept the team competitive over the next two seasons & better positioned us for 2021 forward?

I think this is a really good response to the original post. The starting OF was Cain-Yelich-Braun, the IF was Shaw-Arcia-Moose-Aguilar/Thames and the rotation featured Chacin, Miley, Chase Anderson, Guerra and Davies. I am not sure who the Brewers could have possibly dealt to rebuild short of blowing up the dynamic bullpen of Burnes, Hader and Knebel. Plus, who would've thought that Shaw and Aguilar would forget how to hit in 2019, while Cain regressed substantially from 2018 and they would still make the playoffs in 2019?

[Oxy]

Well, before they signed Moose and Grandal the 2019 team wasn't looking good enough to truly contend. After they signed those guys, sure hold onto Hader and go for it.

 

Even still had they traded him at the deadline in 2019 when the regression of Cain, Shaw and Aguilar was apparent and losing Moose and Grandal in the upcoming offseason was a foregone conclusion it probably would have been worth it. After he became a Super 2 and his dominance slowly waned (although still among the best in the league), then it is/was too late to get anything significant for him.

[Lathund]

I don't think you even could have traded Hader for a haul much earlier, because he'd simply be too valuable with 4-4½ years of service time. There's a limit to how much a team is ever going to offer for a reliever, even an extremely good one, because there's just so much risk involved in it. It's probably still a factor in why he hasn't been traded yet. Logically it might not make much sense, but when you factor in some human psychology and risk aversion it starts making more sense; trading the farm for a reliever is a risky proposition that might stick with a GM for a long time or even play a part in losing the job. Trading less of the farm for 2 years of the same reliever instead of 4 is a safer proposition, even if it's worse. You take away the extreme outcomes.

 

Basically what I'm trying to get at is that you're not going to get twice as much for 1 year of a reliever as you are for ½, or twice as much for 2 years as for one, or for 4 years vs 2 etc. Teams are very willing to pay for the immediate here and now production of a reliever, but want to pay for the future production (and risk) at a discount. Now I'm still very much in the camp that the Brewers should have tried hard to trade Hader this winter if not before anyway. I think that David Stearns is also of the same mindset in that regard (Hence all the rumours of trades over the last year and a half; no smoke without fire), but that there simply hasn't been anything remotely acceptable offered. I think teams are getting wiser to paying absolute top dollar (or top prospects) for relievers.

[Hopper]

What about trading Hader and another piece for Gore?

Hader and a pitching prospect, maybe even one of our top guys like Small.

As much as I like Small, I love Gore.

I covet him!

Would this even stimulate conversation with the Padres?

[brewcrewdue80]

What about trading Hader and another piece for Gore?

Hader and a pitching prospect, maybe even one of our top guys like Small.

As much as I like Small, I love Gore.

I covet him!

Would this even stimulate conversation with the Padres?

 

No.

 

Mitchell yesterday had an EV I believe was 109MPH on his hit. That is astounding and this kid will rise up the minors quickly doing that. So point on window closing needs to recognize Turang and Mitchell are possible to likely 2022 additions to the lineup.

 

Gore is a rising top 10prospect. He's going to be untouchable for likely all but maybe a list of 10-15players. Hader isn't one of them.

Campusano may perfectly fit the headline to a Hader deal. Except milw is loaded at catcher and traded for what should be a decent one last year.

[Hopper]

What about trading Hader and another piece for Gore?

Hader and a pitching prospect, maybe even one of our top guys like Small.

As much as I like Small, I love Gore.

I covet him!

Would this even stimulate conversation with the Padres?

 

No.

 

Mitchell yesterday had an EV I believe was 109MPH on his hit. That is astounding and this kid will rise up the minors quickly doing that. So point on window closing needs to recognize Turang and Mitchell are possible to likely 2022 additions to the lineup.

 

Gore is a rising top 10prospect. He's going to be untouchable for likely all but maybe a list of 10-15players. Hader isn't one of them.

Campusano may perfectly fit the headline to a Hader deal. Except milw is loaded at catcher and traded for what should be a decent one last year.

 

Yes.

I didn't mention Mitchell anyplace in my post.

Do you have a job with the Brewers front office?

You often speak in absolutes, like you have an in.

[brewcrewdue80]

Giveup the ML player and your team's top10 prospect for a team's #1 prospect seems like a good way to lose trades. Gore is still a prospect and his professional career is max of 101 IP in a season. So heres a guy that is 3years healthy to reach a SPs 30+ games start in a season. Maybe 4 to reach Playoff games starts.

1 TJ injury will wreck potentially the Brewers from getting more than 1 full season of starts. If that happens this year or early next, Gore stands to become a bullpen pitcher. That would be an utmost fail on a Hader trade and you included a top 10 prospect in your system. You have to want a better chance on a headliner deal with 2 potential "Smalls" included in the deal.

 

The Mitchell comment was meant to a different post I didn't quote.

Post by Oxy about short window with current core of players.

[TURBO]

So are you saying you wouldn't want Gore in a trade for Hader?

 

I'm not sure what your point is really...

 

Seems odd that you are projecting a possible TJ surgery, or low inning total.

 

I'm with those who are high on Gore. I'd trade Hader straight up for Gore this very instant.

[brewcrewdue80]

So are you saying you wouldn't want Gore in a trade for Hader?

 

I'm not sure what your point is really...

 

Seems odd that you are projecting a possible TJ surgery, or low inning total.

 

I'm with those who are high on Gore. I'd trade Hader straight up for Gore this very instant.

 

No it's not that Im not high on Gore. I don't like the idea to trade Hader plus for him.

His innings limitations is a cause for concern unless you kept him in the minors this season and the next. But would anyone be confident Milw would do so? So concern is wasting team control a year even 2 and prematurely playing him at MLB level. Now you leave yourself with 4years of control to basically prune him for large markets to sign away. A TJ injury is a very good threat from a HS drafted SP building up his innings. Hader helps this team for 3 seasons now and Gore I don't see doing so until after 3 seasons pass. When I say that I mean pitching meaningful Sept and Playoff innings.

Sorta feels like trading up in the 1st rd to select your next QB.

[trwi7]

TJ is no more of a threat for Gore than it is for Hader. Using it as a reason to say you wouldn't trade Hader+ for him is ridiculous.

[trwi7]

TJ is no more of a threat for Gore than it is for Hader. Using it as a reason to say you wouldn't trade Hader+ for him is ridiculous.

[JosephC]

Gore is #3 on the MLB Pipeline, #2 on Keith Law's list, and #10 on Baseball America's list. Using the Point of Pittsburgh surplus values, which historically has been pretty accurate when looking at trades that are made, I would estimate Gore's prospect surplus value to be 85.4 million. I would put Hader in the low 30 millions.

 

A fair trade involving Hader and Gore would probably look something like-

 

Brewers get-

LHP - MacKenzie Gore

 

Padres get-

LHP - Josh Hader

SS - Brice Turang

OF - Garrett Mitchell

C - Mario Feliciano

[JosephC]

Gore is #3 on the MLB Pipeline, #2 on Keith Law's list, and #10 on Baseball America's list. Using the Point of Pittsburgh surplus values, which historically has been pretty accurate when looking at trades that are made, I would estimate Gore's prospect surplus value to be 85.4 million. I would put Hader in the low 30 millions.

 

A fair trade involving Hader and Gore would probably look something like-

 

Brewers get-

LHP - MacKenzie Gore

 

Padres get-

LHP - Josh Hader

SS - Brice Turang

OF - Garrett Mitchell

C - Mario Feliciano

[brewcrewdue80]

Gore is #3 on the MLB Pipeline, #2 on Keith Law's list, and #10 on Baseball America's list. Using the Point of Pittsburgh surplus values, which historically has been pretty accurate when looking at trades that are made, I would estimate Gore's prospect surplus value to be 85.4 million. I would put Hader in the low 30 millions.

 

A fair trade involving Hader and Gore would probably look something like-

 

Brewers get-

LHP - MacKenzie Gore

 

Padres get-

LHP - Josh Hader

SS - Brice Turang

OF - Garrett Mitchell

C - Mario Feliciano

 

And thats absolutely insane for a kid with 183 professional ip approaching 4 years from drafted.

Hader was on the SP trail who ran out of time to become a SP due to how good he was but how much further in IP he needed to become a full season SP. Gore has 0 chance to give you more than 170IP the next 2 years. But he's going to be pushing for a call up (if the rankings are spot on) by end of this season. Certainly early in to next season. He may fall in to high-end RP when all is done.

Julio Urias comes to mind. A top 3 SP prospect who surpassed the minors level before he was ready for a season full of Starting in the Majors. Now 5 seasons in he has a career 3.3 WAR. 172IP as a Starter to. 67IP as a reliever. TJ was needed by him. See how bad that derailed his career.

[brewcrewdue80]

Gore is #3 on the MLB Pipeline, #2 on Keith Law's list, and #10 on Baseball America's list. Using the Point of Pittsburgh surplus values, which historically has been pretty accurate when looking at trades that are made, I would estimate Gore's prospect surplus value to be 85.4 million. I would put Hader in the low 30 millions.

 

A fair trade involving Hader and Gore would probably look something like-

 

Brewers get-

LHP - MacKenzie Gore

 

Padres get-

LHP - Josh Hader

SS - Brice Turang

OF - Garrett Mitchell

C - Mario Feliciano

 

And thats absolutely insane for a kid with 183 professional ip approaching 4 years from drafted.

Hader was on the SP trail who ran out of time to become a SP due to how good he was but how much further in IP he needed to become a full season SP. Gore has 0 chance to give you more than 170IP the next 2 years. But he's going to be pushing for a call up (if the rankings are spot on) by end of this season. Certainly early in to next season. He may fall in to high-end RP when all is done.

Julio Urias comes to mind. A top 3 SP prospect who surpassed the minors level before he was ready for a season full of Starting in the Majors. Now 5 seasons in he has a career 3.3 WAR. 172IP as a Starter to. 67IP as a reliever. TJ was needed by him. See how bad that derailed his career.

[DR28]

Gore is #3 on the MLB Pipeline, #2 on Keith Law's list, and #10 on Baseball America's list. Using the Point of Pittsburgh surplus values, which historically has been pretty accurate when looking at trades that are made, I would estimate Gore's prospect surplus value to be 85.4 million. I would put Hader in the low 30 millions.

 

A fair trade involving Hader and Gore would probably look something like-

 

Brewers get-

LHP - MacKenzie Gore

 

Padres get-

LHP - Josh Hader

SS - Brice Turang

OF - Garrett Mitchell

C - Mario Feliciano

 

OMG no way.... Talk about gutting our farm system.

[DR28]

Gore is #3 on the MLB Pipeline, #2 on Keith Law's list, and #10 on Baseball America's list. Using the Point of Pittsburgh surplus values, which historically has been pretty accurate when looking at trades that are made, I would estimate Gore's prospect surplus value to be 85.4 million. I would put Hader in the low 30 millions.

 

A fair trade involving Hader and Gore would probably look something like-

 

Brewers get-

LHP - MacKenzie Gore

 

Padres get-

LHP - Josh Hader

SS - Brice Turang

OF - Garrett Mitchell

C - Mario Feliciano

 

OMG no way.... Talk about gutting our farm system.

[wibadgers23]

Gore is #3 on the MLB Pipeline, #2 on Keith Law's list, and #10 on Baseball America's list. Using the Point of Pittsburgh surplus values, which historically has been pretty accurate when looking at trades that are made, I would estimate Gore's prospect surplus value to be 85.4 million. I would put Hader in the low 30 millions.

 

A fair trade involving Hader and Gore would probably look something like-

 

Brewers get-

LHP - MacKenzie Gore

 

Padres get-

LHP - Josh Hader

SS - Brice Turang

OF - Garrett Mitchell

C - Mario Feliciano

 

Holy smokes! Aren’t we the ones who’s supposed to get top prospects in a Hader trade and not the other team?

[wibadgers23]

Gore is #3 on the MLB Pipeline, #2 on Keith Law's list, and #10 on Baseball America's list. Using the Point of Pittsburgh surplus values, which historically has been pretty accurate when looking at trades that are made, I would estimate Gore's prospect surplus value to be 85.4 million. I would put Hader in the low 30 millions.

 

A fair trade involving Hader and Gore would probably look something like-

 

Brewers get-

LHP - MacKenzie Gore

 

Padres get-

LHP - Josh Hader

SS - Brice Turang

OF - Garrett Mitchell

C - Mario Feliciano

 

Holy smokes! Aren’t we the ones who’s supposed to get top prospects in a Hader trade and not the other team?

[PeaveyFury]

Holy smokes! Aren’t we the ones who’s supposed to get top prospects in a Hader trade and not the other team?

 

I think the point is that relatively speaking, a young SP with ace potential has far more value than we think he does.

[PeaveyFury]

Holy smokes! Aren’t we the ones who’s supposed to get top prospects in a Hader trade and not the other team?

 

I think the point is that relatively speaking, a young SP with ace potential has far more value than we think he does.