Hader trade ideas

[HiAndTight]

Yeah, I'm not impressed by San Diego's bullpen. They could be very good, but I don't think they will be.

 

Hader makes a ton of sense for them.

 

Hader makes a ton of sense for us as well... We can win the Central, then anything can happen in the playoffs.

This can be very true. 7 game series and you get the best of Woodruff and Burnes twice plus Williams-Hader to complete games. The only turnover problem is at least 1 of those 2 wouldn't be ready for game 1/2 in next series. Be nice to see offense win a game the pitching matchups suggest you shouldn't.

 

Think that's part of what Hader trades not happening is a result of. He's a benifit for playoff run for Milw who is what you'd trade for if you needed help at the position to make a playoff push. Exactly why you put an insane asking price to trade him away. As things stand he's 100pct going to be QO'd when his FA begins. You know that a low 30s draft pick is coming if nobody meets your asking price. And you get the best of him while he's cheap. It's always something that a trade simulator never inputs in to a trade value. That draft pick. Brewers could use the pick to value or they could use it towards a 1st pick that exceeds pick value who drops. Take a top 7 expected picked guy who falls to the 20s where Milw likely picks and drafts and pays the guy who likely after 13picks expected not to sign any more. Yet Milw does so. A top 7 guy could be a Gore for example who nobody expects Hader for Gore Straight-up to happen. Gore was 3rd pick in his draft so reasonable talent-draft fall comparison.

 

 

That is an impressive justification for arguing we'll get a Gore like talent anyway, so we should demand so much more...I will give you that.

 

A few giant leaps...like the assumption that we will offer him the QO, that he'll turn it down, we'll get a pick and in the draft of 2025, it'll be a guy who was a top 10 talent, but fell, and that's basically like Gore who was picked at 3.

 

Is it really a given that we will even give a reliever the option to play for ~20 million for a year? Or that he'd turn it down and we wouldn't be stuck with that? That of course assumes he continues to pitch at the same level and doesn't see the league catch up to him or suffer any injuries.

[Hopper]

I am pretty confident that Josh Hader will not be the same pitcher he is today in 2025.

He screams arm issues to me.

I'm all for trading him as soon as someone will pay our price.

He is great to have, but every year with him on the roster is another year to spend waiting for the blow-up that seems inevitable.

These are opinions of course, I am not stating anything as fact.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He is great to have, but every year with him on the roster is another year to spend waiting for the blow-up that seems inevitable.

 

I don't know if there's ever been a line that more closely personifies being a fan of the Milwaukee Brewers ...

[DR28]

I am pretty confident that Josh Hader will not be the same pitcher he is today in 2025.

He screams arm issues to me.

I'm all for trading him as soon as someone will pay our price.

He is great to have, but every year with him on the roster is another year to spend waiting for the blow-up that seems inevitable.

These are opinions of course, I am not stating anything as fact.

 

BFD, you can say this on ANY pitcher.

[RollieTime]

I do agree that you could make that statement for any pitcher, but I think Hader may have a slightly higher chance of injury due to his funky delivery and that’s why I’ve always been a proponent of moving him. It is part of what makes him so dominant, but it is something to be slightly concerned about.

 

I guess one positive way to spin it is that he hasn’t thrown a ton of offspeed pitches at this point in his career so that might be beneficial to his arm health. But I have always thought that he is at a slightly higher risk of injury and his inability to control the strike zone has always been a big concern to me too. I would be interested in seeing just how many times hitters swing outside the strike zone against him. Again, part of that is his funky delivery throwing the hitter off, but it’s also frequent that he misses high early in the count and gets swings when the catcher is not setting up there. I am concerned that players at some point soon will stop swinging the majority of the time and he will have a difficult time adjusting. At least initially.

[adambr2]

Assuming Hader gets a QO is just way too speculative right now. That's years from now, we don't know what his next 3 seasons will look like, we don't know what the market for relievers will look like then, we don't know if we would ever offer that kind of $$ to a reliever...

 

On top of that we won't even have the same collective bargaining agreement to know if the same QO system will be in place.

[Warning Track Power]

I am pretty confident that Josh Hader will not be the same pitcher he is today in 2025.

He screams arm issues to me.

I'm all for trading him as soon as someone will pay our price.

He is great to have, but every year with him on the roster is another year to spend waiting for the blow-up that seems inevitable.

These are opinions of course, I am not stating anything as fact.

I tend to agree with this but not because of Hader specifically. Rather, the trade of Hader is really the only legitimate piece the Brewers have to build up some semblance of an elite prospect, be it an individual like Gore, or multiple Top 100 prospects.

 

I am all about prolonging the window of opportunity for the Brewers and, right now, that window could be extended by a trade of Hader, even if it hurts the bullpen in the short term.

[brewcrewdue80]

I mentioned Gore because he plays for SD. He was drafted 3rd when I made the scenario of a top 7 projection falling. Just a generalization that a top 7 pick could rate top 10 in prospects. I didn't detail the fact that the FO has picked the guy falling below expectations in the draft fitting the story of using money gained from Hader's QO loss to select a guy that shouldn't have been there to pick. It's been a strategy used multiple times the opposite way.

I know the QO may not exist, but currently it does. Until it doesnt, I shouldn't pivot to an imaginary future. Cincinnati QO'd Bauer while moving on from some contracts. So saying it can't happen because Milw., we're talking Hader trade ideas here. Stearns/Arnold and co. Would they be doing their job properly not using my added reason for Hader trade value? Whether Milw can or does give Hader a QO when his FA begins, Stearns/Arnold had better be using that they will go this route if you're not meeting their demand/ asking price.

Being fearful that Hader is going to regress or get injured, that's a reason for you to try trading him now, it's not the reason to reduce the value you have for him in negotiations. Hader at this moment is trending to be QO'd once his team control ends. Going in to a trade negotiation with any value not including that sells yourself short.

 

Arguing the QO in future being gone like it's a bad thing, forgets it could be better not worse to get compensated when losing Hader to FA.

[trwi7]

Whether Milw can or does give Hader a QO when his FA begins, Stearns/Arnold had better be using that they will go this route if you're not meeting their demand/ asking price.

 

I'd call that bluff if I'm negotiating. Chances of the Brewers taking the chance on paying a reliever around $20 million, even for one season is extremely remote imo.

[reillymcshane]

If this team is going to win next year, they are going to need a lot of things to trend in the right direction for them. Cain, Yelich, Garcia, Narvaez, and Hiura rebounding. Young guys improving, such as Urias, Lindblom, Houser, etc. And, of course, staying healthy.

 

That all said, this team will never be a juggernaut. But if we win, it'll be with an adequate offense, good defense, and solid pitching - including a exceptional back end of the bullpen. That means Hader and Williams locking things down.

 

Thus, unless you are blown away with an offer for Hader - you just hang on to him, and see how the season goes. If things don't go well, he'll still have a ton of value during the season. Yes, injury of diminishing effectiveness is always a risk. But so is trading him. May as well see how this team performs - and then make a move later if it's deemed prudent.

 

Thus, just hang on to the guy unless you are blown away. SD or whomever will come calling in July if we become sellers - and the price will be just as high - if not more.

[brewcrewdue80]

Whether Milw can or does give Hader a QO when his FA begins, Stearns/Arnold had better be using that they will go this route if you're not meeting their demand/ asking price.

 

I'd call that bluff if I'm negotiating. Chances of the Brewers taking the chance on paying a reliever around $20 million, even for one season is extremely remote imo.

 

Yet it would be a guarantee any top 20 market gives that QO to Hader. So we should just give Hader to LA take one top 100prospect and then watch 4 drafts from now LA draft a new top 100 prospect (since that's all they churn out these days)

Lose lose small market.

[Eye Black]

Rosenthal’s article for The Athletic this morning says a trade of Hader to San Diego is unlikely. He says the teams have discussed Hader intermittently over the past few years, but currently aren’t a match on a trade. He said the Brewers want controllable major league pieces, and the Padres don’t want to give those pieces up. Rosenthal mentions IF Jake Cronenworth and LHP Tim Hill as two players that fit the description of what the Brewers are looking for in a return.

[JohnBriggs12]

If this team is going to win next year, they are going to need a lot of things to trend in the right direction for them. Cain, Yelich, Garcia, Narvaez, and Hiura rebounding. Young guys improving, such as Urias, Lindblom, Houser, etc. And, of course, staying healthy.

 

That all said, this team will never be a juggernaut. But if we win, it'll be with an adequate offense, good defense, and solid pitching - including a exceptional back end of the bullpen. That means Hader and Williams locking things down.

 

Thus, unless you are blown away with an offer for Hader - you just hang on to him, and see how the season goes. If things don't go well, he'll still have a ton of value during the season. Yes, injury of diminishing effectiveness is always a risk. But so is trading him. May as well see how this team performs - and then make a move later if it's deemed prudent.

 

Thus, just hang on to the guy unless you are blown away. SD or whomever will come calling in July if we become sellers - and the price will be just as high - if not more.

 

Lindblom will be 34 in June and is one of the older starters in the league. Hauser is 28. They hardly qualify as young guys.

[Warning Track Power]

Rosenthal’s article for The Athletic this morning says a trade of Hader to San Diego is unlikely. He says the teams have discussed Hader intermittently over the past few years, but currently aren’t a match on a trade. He said the Brewers want controllable major league pieces, and the Padres don’t want to give those pieces up. Rosenthal mentions IF Jake Cronenworth and LHP Tim Hill as two players that fit the description of what the Brewers are looking for in a return.

I read the article and if that’s all that is being offered (27 year old Cronenworth and a decent reliever) I am holding Hader until FA.

[adambr2]

Trent Grisham fits the description well also.

 

[TURBO]

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Padres are unlikely to trade for Brewers closer Josh Hader.

 

Rosenthal notes that while the two sides have talked intermittently about Hader over the past two years, they don't currently line up for a trade. Padres skipper Jayce Tingler is already on record as being "incredibly open-minded" about who will handle the ninth inning for his club -- with some mix of Drew Pomeranz, Emilio Pagan, Mark Melancon and Keone Kela landing saves. It should be a tremendous bullpen for the Padres.

 

SOURCE: The Athletic

Feb 27, 2021, 9:35 AM ET

[trwi7]

Whether Milw can or does give Hader a QO when his FA begins, Stearns/Arnold had better be using that they will go this route if you're not meeting their demand/ asking price.

 

I'd call that bluff if I'm negotiating. Chances of the Brewers taking the chance on paying a reliever around $20 million, even for one season is extremely remote imo.

 

Yet it would be a guarantee any top 20 market gives that QO to Hader. So we should just give Hader to LA take one top 100prospect and then watch 4 drafts from now LA draft a new top 100 prospect (since that's all they churn out these days)

Lose lose small market.

 

First, we're way too far out to know what any team would do. Hader could get hurt or regress by free agency in which case no team is offering him the QO. Second, even if he did pitch great all the way through to free agency there might be like 3 or 4 teams that would be willing to spend $20 million on a reliever and if they did I think it's likely that Hader would accept in which case he wouldn't be able to be offered the QO again and therefore give the team no compensation unless they traded him.

[HiAndTight]

 

First, we're way too far out to know what any team would do. Hader could get hurt or regress by free agency in which case no team is offering him the QO. Second, even if he did pitch great all the way through to free agency there might be like 3 or 4 teams that would be willing to spend $20 million on a reliever and if they did I think it's likely that Hader would accept in which case he wouldn't be able to be offered the QO again and therefore give the team no compensation unless they traded him.

 

 

THREE relievers are making 13 million or more a year. Jensen, Chapman, and Kimbrel. Dodgers, Yankees, and Cubs.

 

So, yeah, probably 3 or 4 teams that MIGHT want to offer a reliever around 20 million...in 4 years...if he pitches as he did a couple of years ago. And, again, if there is still a QO.

 

I really doubt it's even crossing Arnold or Stearns mind at this point. On top of ALL the other reasons, we're also talking about a pick that probably wouldn't be a Brewer until 2029-2030. When you keep adding all this up, it just seems less and less reasonable that it'd be a consideration.

 

When you're talking about trading a star player just before the deadline, that's when you factor in a potential qualifying offer.

[JosephC]

Even though it was a shortened, very abnormal type of season, there is still plenty of data that probably alarms teams when moving forward with Hader.

 

I complained throughout 2019 that Hader was not using his slider enough, was turning into a one-trick pony and it left him just about zero margin for error. If he misses his spot, his fastball is very hittable when it gets low in the zone. One also wonders how much of a velocity dip he can suffer and still remain effective.

 

In 2018 and 2019, Hader threw his fastball about 82% of the time and his slider about 18% of the time. He was roughly a 2.50 ERA/2.65 FIP/2.20 xFIP pitcher over those two seasons.

 

Hader was not as good in 2019 as he was in 2018. The ERA/FIP/xFIP were all higher in 2019. ERA and xFIP was fairly close, but the increase in home runs allowed caused the FIP to jump significantly, from 2.23 to 3.10. The home run factor played significantly into his fastball effectiveness, as his fastball pitch value went from an incredible 19.1 in 2018 to a still excellent 13.6 in 2019.

 

But things changed in 2020. Probably seeing the drop in fastball effectiveness, Hader threw the slider significantly more. Instead of being 80+% with the fastball, the mix changed to 68% fastball/32% slider. The fastball effectiveness also took a major drop, all the way from 13.6 in 2019 down to a very average 0.2 in 2020. And while Hader was still a quality pitcher in 2020, he was nowhere near as good as he was the previous two seasons. 3.79 ERA/4.03 FIP/4.01 xFIP.

 

I'm guessing teams probably look at FIP and xFIP more than anything then projecting a pitchers future performance. Hader's FIP has gone from 2.23 to 3.10 to 4.03 over the last three seasons. The xFIP has gone from 2.05 to 2.36 to 4.01. The FIP is very concerning because it's been nearly a full run increase per season.

 

It might be a pretty huge stretch to think that the majority of MLB teams see Hader as a super-elite type of reliever at this point. Just looking at Chapman, he's only had a seasonal FIP over 3 one time in his MLB career (3.29 back in 2011). At his prime he had a five year run with FIP's under 2 in 4 of the 5 seasons (it was 2.47 in the one season he missed). The first time Jansen had a FIP over 4 was in his age 30 season. Prior to that he had 7.5 MLB seasons and his worst FIP prior to his age 30 season was 2.40. Kimbrel has a run where he was just at a completely different level.

 

Just looking at this era's top relief pitchers and FIP through their age 26 season-

Kimbrel = 1.52

Chapman = 1.97

Jansen = 2.00

Hader = 2.84

So Hader is a step behind and from 2018 to 2019 to 2020 he is clearly trending in the wrong direction.

[brewers888]

Demanding major league ready talent was the type of stipulation that consistently got Melvin in trouble. The idea in any Hader trade is to get the best talent possible no matter the level that prospect is currently at.

 

This farm system is pretty much devoid of any impact position player talent and that needs to change. I would much rather have a AA or even A ball player with big upside over major league ready guys who aren't all that good. If Cronenworth is the best player we can get in return for Hader we are far better off keeping our guy.

[Lathund]

I'm guessing teams probably look at FIP and xFIP more than anything then projecting a pitchers future performance. Hader's FIP has gone from 2.23 to 3.10 to 4.03 over the last three seasons. The xFIP has gone from 2.05 to 2.36 to 4.01. The FIP is very concerning because it's been nearly a full run increase per season.

 

Teams obviously look more at those numbers than they do things like ERA, wins or saves, but they look at a lot more than that. They also don't read too much into 19 innings. Thing with Hader is that he had that 5 walk game against the Pirates, that accounted for half his walks and a quarter of runs given up. It's not as if he generally started giving up more walks; he didn't walk a single batter in the 11 games he had after that Pirates game. So whatever was up with him that one game is something that has not been an issue at any other point in his career. Batters were .123/.269/.292 against him even with that game included. His Statcast page looks like this. Point is, don't read too much into FIP in 19 innings.

 

So yeah, I think he's still viewed as an elite reliever by most of the league. More importantly than that though, is that he's probably the best *available* reliever, which is the key. A team might want Chapman or Hendriks more, but they can't have them. So if you're going all in for the next couple of years like SD, and the bullpen is the worst (Still pretty good, but not elite) area of your team, Hader makes a ton of sense.

 

All that being said, he won't get anywhere near the kind of return most people think, simply because relievers just aren't that valuable. Chapman was an overpay, and rental relievers haven't gotten that kind of return since, and it's 5 years ago now.

[TURBO]

Hader should have never been in that game long enough to walk 5 guys. That was a gigantic fail on Counsell. Totally asinine how he handled that situation.

[sveumrules]

Hader two bad games 2020: 1.1 IP | 4 H | 6 R | 5 BB | 2 K | 2 HR

Hader 17 good games 2020: 17.2 IP | 4 H | 2 R | 5 BB | 29 K | 1 HR

 

For the overwhelming majority of 2020 Hader was his regular old dominant self, arguably maybe even improved with the slider finally finding some consistency.

 

ZiPS has Hader projected for the 3rd lowest FIP (2.86) in 2021 behind only Chapman (2.63) & Hendriks (2.73). Only other relievers under 3.00 are Kahnle & Diaz at 2.93.

 

I'd guess most teams internal projection systems still have Hader as a top 5 reliever for 2021 also.

[brewcrewdue80]

Can we remember the baseball is supposed to be "deadened"

 

Hader's pitching and arm release is designed for an amped up batter to foolishly swing at pitches that arent in the strike zone. When there's a complaint seeing his control all but in the strike zone, a lot of that is on purpose. Harder to catch up with a ball high in the zone is the saying. Remember pitchers returned without a ST ramp up. 95-96mph is consistent with majority of 2019. A full season 2019 he had 96-98s too. But the highest numbers occured beyond 60 games in to season. Maybe one in the first 60games. Hader gave up runs in 4 outing last. Walk fest, multi hit for 1 run. The other 2 were 3HRs allowed. Essentially 3 poor games in 21 outings. 1 of them abnormally so.

Coming in to a mew Full season with competition for saves. Should feel Hader is primed for a big season. How many other times has it happened where RP Poy was beat the next season by a player on same team? Williams did it with 2 pitches. I'd expect Hader to bring a better slider this year thrown more often.

[HiAndTight]

Can we remember the baseball is supposed to be "deadened"

 

 

How does that argue in favor of Hader who's regressed the last couple years?

 

If you want to argue that last year should be thrown out, fine. Most people agree statistical outliers from last year or small sample sizes shouldn't be a significant factor in how you value a player.

 

But why does the argument that the ball was "deadened" help the argument that Hader is worth more in his worst season?