Hader trade ideas

[sveumrules]

According to the trade simulator, which I don’t fully agree with, but Adrian Houser and Brice Turang seems about fair for Adames. Throw in Arcia if they want him too. I would do this deal and sign someone like Mike Fiers. And to prove a point of how unreliable that site is, Hader’s current trade value is 15.5 So essentially one prospect in the 85-100 range and that’s it. For 3 years of the best reliever in baseball two of the last three seasons.

 

I don't think that is that number is too far off. I would probably expect a prospect in the 50-100 range or an MLB ready player with 4-6 years of control remaining as a headliner then a couple lottery ticket type prospects as a realistic return in a Hader deal.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

According to the trade simulator, which I don’t fully agree with, but Adrian Houser and Brice Turang seems about fair for Adames. Throw in Arcia if they want him too. I would do this deal and sign someone like Mike Fiers. And to prove a point of how unreliable that site is, Hader’s current trade value is 15.5 So essentially one prospect in the 85-100 range and that’s it. For 3 years of the best reliever in baseball two of the last three seasons.

 

How much more proof do we need that the trade simulator is trash?

[adambr2]

I mean, I think 15.5 is too low but Hader is not worth as much in trade as we emotionally feel he is worth. You basically have to take his expected value, which is already limited as a reliever, and deduct the expected cost of his remaining years which are not that cheap. Then you have an already depressed reliever market, it is not that surprising to see him valued under 20M.

 

They also have Burnes at over 70M and Woodruff at almost 120M and no one is complaining about that.

[RollieTime]

I mean, I think 15.5 is too low but Hader is not worth as much in trade as we emotionally feel he is worth. You basically have to take his expected value, which is already limited as a reliever, and deduct the expected cost of his remaining years which are not that cheap. Then you have an already depressed reliever market, it is not that surprising to see him valued under 20M.

 

They also have Burnes at over 70M and Woodruff at almost 120M and no one is complaining about that.

 

I mean I would trade Woodruff for 8 Josh Hader’s. Bullpen the entire game Good luck against that bullpen! Get on it Stearns!!

[sveumrules]

I mean, I think 15.5 is too low but Hader is not worth as much in trade as we emotionally feel he is worth. You basically have to take his expected value, which is already limited as a reliever, and deduct the expected cost of his remaining years which are not that cheap. Then you have an already depressed reliever market, it is not that surprising to see him valued under 20M.

 

They also have Burnes at over 70M and Woodruff at almost 120M and no one is complaining about that.

 

Yeah, you are essentially talking about 6 WAR projected over the next three years for Hader against probably around a 32-33 million outlay in arbitration salaries.

 

If you use 9 million per WAR, it comes out to around 20 million surplus.

If you use 8 million per WAR, it comes out to around 15 million surplus.

 

Liam Hendriks just signed for 3/54 & is projected about the same as Hader. That would seem to indicate his surplus value is probably around 20 million-ish or so.

[mlloyd10]

This could be way off, but Hader/Arcia/?? for Gleyber Torres

 

Yankees have plenty of fire power, but Torres isn't exactly the best fielding SS there is.

 

Torres moves to 3B for Brewers

[adambr2]

I mean, I think 15.5 is too low but Hader is not worth as much in trade as we emotionally feel he is worth. You basically have to take his expected value, which is already limited as a reliever, and deduct the expected cost of his remaining years which are not that cheap. Then you have an already depressed reliever market, it is not that surprising to see him valued under 20M.

 

They also have Burnes at over 70M and Woodruff at almost 120M and no one is complaining about that.

 

I mean I would trade Woodruff for 8 Josh Hader’s. Bullpen the entire game Good luck against that bullpen! Get on it Stearns!!

 

Me too but it's not my money. We also would have to find a way to pay 8 Josh Hader's. Better have a Dodgers size budget for that in a year or two.

[brewcrewdue80]

I mean, I think 15.5 is too low but Hader is not worth as much in trade as we emotionally feel he is worth. You basically have to take his expected value, which is already limited as a reliever, and deduct the expected cost of his remaining years which are not that cheap. Then you have an already depressed reliever market, it is not that surprising to see him valued under 20M.

 

They also have Burnes at over 70M and Woodruff at almost 120M and no one is complaining about that.

 

What the Brewers and Hader settled in arb this season, was not the kind of increase you would typically assume Hader at Super 2 would have received. I'd have expected in year 2 he'd have an 8.5-9.25mil price tag. What he argued for last season is where he is at now for this season. So when it comes his cost, I think he's returned near a normal 3 years of arbitration. Taking in to account a guy like Andrew Miller got a QO and was signed shows Hader should have at least a rd 1a type of prospect in his return value or not. That is something one has to believe the trade simulators never take in to account. Via last season that's around 2.5mil in draft capitol or something to add in to the trade simulator. And that doesn't take in to account what the next CBA worked out makes for that loss to FA. Do we return to what it was previously and take over another team's 1st rd draft pick? Say that is what the cost is from one of the big market clubs while say for Pirates it would cost their 2nd pick(balance or 2nd rd depending if that exists) TBH, being a homer, the move STL just made to take on Arrenado's contract should exclude them from any kind of competitive balance chances the entirety of his contract. I'd say that any FA contract signed by a competitive balance receiving team that would have any seasons where at the time of signing is a higher amount than what the current QO amount is removes them from competitive balance receiving. draft or international signings for the seasons as stated above that amount. Signing a player that is already on your team to such an amount wouldn't cost the competitive balance since it's a player already on your team. To be honest, I don't know how many other teams this would even affect beside the Cardinals as balance is not what MLB is giving them, it's an advantage.

 

Back on Hader I think he moved from 8.5/11.75/15.5 in arb to now the 6.675/9.5/12.4 range. So that saves nearly 7.5mil from what a team last offseason was looking to take on. And at the highest 12.4 is cheap when taking the next Aroldis Chapman or FA value.

[Warning Track Power]

At this point in time, I am ready to burn the system down again to fit pieces into the Brewers competitive window with Yelich in his prime. Call up the Oakland A's and offer them Josh Hader, Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell and one other piece for Matt Chapman and Matt Olson. I don't care if that other piece is Ethan Small or Aaron Ashby either. The window with Yelich in his prime is small, the top of the rotation could be one of the best in Brewers history, and frankly, I am tired of Wisconsin teams blowing their MVPs windows for championships. Chapman and Olson are paid $6.5m and $5m in 2021 and are likely to be getting significant raises in 2022 assuming they play to form and the A's will eventually have to move them.

 

With the Brewers sitting out FA, the only way they are going to fill holes at 1B and 3B is with a trade. If the A's are willing to entertain the notion of moving Chapman and/or Olson, they should be the main targets.

 

Maybe this should have gone in the vent thread

[wntrtxn21]

At this point in time, I am ready to burn the system down again to fit pieces into the Brewers competitive window with Yelich in his prime. Call up the Oakland A's and offer them Josh Hader, Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell and one other piece for Matt Chapman and Matt Olson. I don't care if that other piece is Ethan Small or Aaron Ashby either. The window with Yelich in his prime is small, the top of the rotation could be one of the best in Brewers history, and frankly, I am tired of Wisconsin teams blowing their MVPs windows for championships. Chapman and Olson are paid $6.5m and $5m in 2021 and are likely to be getting significant raises in 2022 assuming they play to form and the A's will eventually have to move them.

 

With the Brewers sitting out FA, the only way they are going to fill holes at 1B and 3B is with a trade. If the A's are willing to entertain the notion of moving Chapman and/or Olson, they should be the main targets.

 

Maybe this should have gone in the vent thread

 

Hader/Mitchell/Turang may get Olson. Add Small and it may get Chapman, but never both of them.

[Warning Track Power]

At this point in time, I am ready to burn the system down again to fit pieces into the Brewers competitive window with Yelich in his prime. Call up the Oakland A's and offer them Josh Hader, Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell and one other piece for Matt Chapman and Matt Olson. I don't care if that other piece is Ethan Small or Aaron Ashby either. The window with Yelich in his prime is small, the top of the rotation could be one of the best in Brewers history, and frankly, I am tired of Wisconsin teams blowing their MVPs windows for championships. Chapman and Olson are paid $6.5m and $5m in 2021 and are likely to be getting significant raises in 2022 assuming they play to form and the A's will eventually have to move them.

 

With the Brewers sitting out FA, the only way they are going to fill holes at 1B and 3B is with a trade. If the A's are willing to entertain the notion of moving Chapman and/or Olson, they should be the main targets.

 

Maybe this should have gone in the vent thread

With Wong in the fold, let's get wild and revisit what I posted above. Would this deal get any traction with the A's:

 

Keston Hiura, Josh Hader, Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang for Matt Chapman and Matt Olson

 

Without getting into analysis of the fairness of the deal for either side or long term implications of depleting the farm, a lineup of Cain-Yelich-Chapman-Olson-Garcia-Narvaez-Wong-Urias sure looks sexy on paper.

[brewcrewdue80]

At this point in time, I am ready to burn the system down again to fit pieces into the Brewers competitive window with Yelich in his prime. Call up the Oakland A's and offer them Josh Hader, Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell and one other piece for Matt Chapman and Matt Olson. I don't care if that other piece is Ethan Small or Aaron Ashby either. The window with Yelich in his prime is small, the top of the rotation could be one of the best in Brewers history, and frankly, I am tired of Wisconsin teams blowing their MVPs windows for championships. Chapman and Olson are paid $6.5m and $5m in 2021 and are likely to be getting significant raises in 2022 assuming they play to form and the A's will eventually have to move them.

 

With the Brewers sitting out FA, the only way they are going to fill holes at 1B and 3B is with a trade. If the A's are willing to entertain the notion of moving Chapman and/or Olson, they should be the main targets.

 

Maybe this should have gone in the vent thread

With Wong in the fold, let's get wild and revisit what I posted above. Would this deal get any traction with the A's:

 

Keston Hiura, Josh Hader, Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang for Matt Chapman and Matt Olson

 

Without getting into analysis of the fairness of the deal for either side or long term implications of depleting the farm, a lineup of Cain-Yelich-Chapman-Olson-Garcia-Narvaez-Wong-Urias sure looks sexy on paper.

 

No because why acquire Hader and lose two better everyday players for a questionable-defenseless Hiura?

[Warning Track Power]

With the Brewers sitting out FA, the only way they are going to fill holes at 1B and 3B is with a trade. If the A's are willing to entertain the notion of moving Chapman and/or Olson, they should be the main targets.

 

Maybe this should have gone in the vent thread

With Wong in the fold, let's get wild and revisit what I posted above. Would this deal get any traction with the A's:

 

Keston Hiura, Josh Hader, Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang for Matt Chapman and Matt Olson

 

Without getting into analysis of the fairness of the deal for either side or long term implications of depleting the farm, a lineup of Cain-Yelich-Chapman-Olson-Garcia-Narvaez-Wong-Urias sure looks sexy on paper.

 

No because why acquire Hader and lose to better everyday players for a questionable-defenseless Hiura?

Because I am operating under the assumption the A's are about to have to turn these guys over given the increases they are both due as soon as 2022 in terms of salary. They get two Top 100 prospects, a lesser bat than Olson and Chapman but a controllable bat with significant potential and the top reliever in baseball (who they could theoretically flip at midseason for more prospects). Not saying it is likely but I don't think it's grossly one-sided or unreasonable to think the A's would be selling them off before they become very expensive.

[TURBO]

At this point in time, I am ready to burn the system down again to fit pieces into the Brewers competitive window with Yelich in his prime. Call up the Oakland A's and offer them Josh Hader, Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell and one other piece for Matt Chapman and Matt Olson. I don't care if that other piece is Ethan Small or Aaron Ashby either. The window with Yelich in his prime is small, the top of the rotation could be one of the best in Brewers history, and frankly, I am tired of Wisconsin teams blowing their MVPs windows for championships. Chapman and Olson are paid $6.5m and $5m in 2021 and are likely to be getting significant raises in 2022 assuming they play to form and the A's will eventually have to move them.

 

With the Brewers sitting out FA, the only way they are going to fill holes at 1B and 3B is with a trade. If the A's are willing to entertain the notion of moving Chapman and/or Olson, they should be the main targets.

 

Maybe this should have gone in the vent thread

With Wong in the fold, let's get wild and revisit what I posted above. Would this deal get any traction with the A's:

 

Keston Hiura, Josh Hader, Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang for Matt Chapman and Matt Olson

 

Without getting into analysis of the fairness of the deal for either side or long term implications of depleting the farm, a lineup of Cain-Yelich-Chapman-Olson-Garcia-Narvaez-Wong-Urias sure looks sexy on paper.

 

Who would the A's replace Chapman and Olson with?

 

If they are set to get expensive, that goes against what we are all about... So basically, we'd aquire them, only to have to trade them mid season in 2022 because we wouldn't be able to pay them both...

[Warning Track Power]

Who would the A's replace Chapman and Olson with?

 

If they are set to get expensive, that goes against what we are all about... So basically, we'd aquire them, only to have to trade them mid season in 2022 because we wouldn't be able to pay them both...

Who the A's replace them with isn't our issue. They seem to do better with scrub FAs than most. They can sign Gyorko and Cron for all I care. Two top 100 prospects, plus Hiura, plus the best reliever in baseball is not an insignificant offer.

 

As for the Brewers, Chapman and Olson aren't FAs until after 2023. Yelich turns 32 in December 2023 or the likely end of his elite years. The proposed trade would be solely about going for it with Yelich still in his prime and Woodruff and Burnes still under contract (both through 2024).

[TURBO]

I don't care who they replace them with either...

 

My point was, they aren't going to trade them without replacements in their system, or guys that they get in return on a trade...

 

Do you know if they have replacements on the cusp of joining the A's in 2021?

[Warning Track Power]

I don't care who they replace them with either...

 

My point was, they aren't going to trade them without replacements in their system, or guys that they get in return on a trade...

 

Do you know if they have replacements on the cusp of joining the A's in 2021?

Interesting to note the A's had 0 Top 100 prospects on the MLB.com list that recently came out and they also had only 1 on The Athletic's and that was an injured AJ Puk. Adding a top 100 OF in Mitchell, SS in Turang and recent 2B in Hiura (more likely DH I know), might entice them for their next window. Flip Hader for additional prospects as well and they can rebuild that system relatively quickly.

 

This is all pure speculation on my part but a team like the A's DESPERATELY needs a good farm system given how cheap that ownership is.

[brewerfan82]

The best part of something like this actually happening would be that no Brewer fan would be able to complain about a slow offseason ever EVER again. Right? I hope?

[RollieTime]

Twins Receive:

LHP Josh Hader

2B Keston Hiura

 

Brewers Receive:

2B/3B Luis Arraez

OF Trevor Larnach

OF/1B Brent Rooker

 

The Brewers receive Arraez for 5 seasons who can play all over the diamond, but can be penciled in for third base. Rooker immediately becomes the 4th outfielder who has big time power and will come with 6 years of control. He can also see time at first base. Larnach will start in AAA and will certainly make an impact in 2021 and be a staple in our outfield for the foreseeable future. This move also would save roughly $6 million in salary, leaving room to bring in a guy like Cron for first and signing a mid rotation arm. Rooker could be looked at being moved to first full time. Yelich is also a possibility to be moved to first base full time, making room for Larnach and Rooker in the corner outfield spots.

 

The Twins get much needed bullpen help that they’ve been looking to find for a couple years and get a young bat with huge potential to take over at 2B for Arraez. The Twins also can slide him over to DH in the future.

 

2021 Opening Day

 

3B Arraez

CF Cain

LF Yelich

1B Cron

2B Wong

C Narvaez

RF Garcia

SS Urias/Arcia

P

 

2022 Opening Day (With DH)

 

3B Arraez

CF Cain

LF Yelich

DH

RF Larnach

1B Rooker

2B Wong

C Narvaez

SS Urias

 

Arraez, Rooker, Larnach, and Urias would all be making the minimum, leaving a significant chunk of change to be spent on a free agent to slot in the 4 hole behind Yelich with Hader, Cron, Garcia, Arcia, and Vogelbach all being able to be cleared off the books. Anthony Rizzo? Corey Seager? Kris Bryant? Lindor and Story will garner the most attention, but I don’t think we will be after those two. But I think a guy like Rizzo would be a huge get for us and we should be able to afford him with the cleared payroll, new tv contract, fans in the stands once again and should see a significant payroll increase from the $85 million range we will likely be around this season.

[brewcrewdue80]

Twins Receive:

LHP Josh Hader

2B Keston Hiura

 

Brewers Receive:

2B/3B Luis Arraez

OF Trevor Larnach

OF/1B Brent Rooker

 

The Brewers receive Arraez for 5 seasons who can play all over the diamond, but can be penciled in for third base. Rooker immediately becomes the 4th outfielder who has big time power and will come with 6 years of control. He can also see time at first base. Larnach will start in AAA and will certainly make an impact in 2021 and be a staple in our outfield for the foreseeable future. This move also would save roughly $6 million in salary, leaving room to bring in a guy like Cron for first and signing a mid rotation arm. Rooker could be looked at being moved to first full time. Yelich is also a possibility to be moved to first base full time, making room for Larnach and Rooker in the corner outfield spots.

 

The Twins get much needed bullpen help that they’ve been looking to find for a couple years and get a young bat with huge potential to take over at 2B for Arraez. The Twins also can slide him over to DH in the future.

 

2021 Opening Day

 

3B Arraez

CF Cain

LF Yelich

1B Cron

2B Wong

C Narvaez

RF Garcia

SS Urias/Arcia

P

 

2022 Opening Day (With DH)

 

3B Arraez

CF Cain

LF Yelich

DH

RF Larnach

1B Rooker

2B Wong

C Narvaez

SS Urias

 

Arraez, Rooker, Larnach, and Urias would all be making the minimum, leaving a significant chunk of change to be spent on a free agent to slot in the 4 hole behind Yelich with Hader, Cron, Garcia, Arcia, and Vogelbach all being able to be cleared off the books. Anthony Rizzo? Corey Seager? Kris Bryant? Lindor and Story will garner the most attention, but I don’t think we will be after those two. But I think a guy like Rizzo would be a huge get for us and we should be able to afford him with the cleared payroll, new tv contract, fans in the stands once again and should see a significant payroll increase from the $85 million range we will likely be around this season.

 

I thought about the twins after getting Wong as a landing spot for Hiura. But the Twins signed Andrelton Simmons, and will move former SS Jorge Polanco to 2b. Also signed Nelson Cruz so he'll become DH. Hiura wouldn't be needed.

 

Arraez was suggested as the utility. So there is maybe a potential to find a Hader Trade with Min to acquire him. With Arreaz though you're looking at a BABIP, low SO hitter with nearly no HR power. Suggesting playing 3b. He may also be a LH platoon bat. Sample size too small. Stats show him well vs LH starters but otherwise closer to 200pt spread. Statcast gave him a similar hitter profile to the Mets Mcneil so there is that. But he's a slow runner and not a base stealer. Odd for somebody who is a BABIP hitter. So good is atop the order BA-OB but bad is not a speedster or power threat. He'll be standing on 1b ripe for a DP victim with a DP bat profile right before then. #6 hitter seems more appropriate.

Kirriloff is the 1b we dream of having but I know a brewerfan with MN locality has said he's untouchable and taking reps for OF in Minnesota. Cruz pushes him back 1yr from Sano batting DH and leaving 1b his job. If we're sticking with Hiura, Rooker becomes redundant for 1b. Works beautifully if DH happens 2022.

 

Can you pull off a Hader for Larnoch and Arreaz deal? Are you okay after this season with Urias and Arreaz. Ss/3b combining for less than 12HRs a season? Do you get a 3rd player back in trade? I'm certain you'd like a Pitching lotto or RP future when trading Hader. A Brewer spin rate guy would be Dakota Chalmers. I liked him that year I rated my draft but he seems to have gotten off to a shaky and TJ beginning who by now has seen his window pass as SP. Shrugs

[Lathund]

I'd keep Hiura out of the Hader trades, not the right time to sell low on him. See how he does at 1B, give his bat a chance to rebound. You trade players when their contracts are running low or once they get too expensive. Keston is 24, has put up a 118 wRC+ so far, and is controllable for 5 more years, and will make league minimum for the next two.

 

Trading Hader is potentially the best way to strengthen this team, he'll only get more expensive year on year and spending 10% of your payroll on just one reliever is not the way to do it a small market team. So trade Hader (I wish they had last year already, as much as I love watching him pitch), but leave Hiura out of it IMO. And yes, that obviously means a lesser return, but I'm fine with that.

[Madhawk23]

Agreed - no reason to include Hader and Hiura in the same trade. You typically can maximize trade returns by trading guys in separate deals.

 

And did I see that the Twins signed Colome yesterday for their pen, or did I see something incorrectly? Maybe it was just someone speculating on a deal?

[RollieTime]

On my trade proposal with the Twins for a return package of Arraez, Larnach, and Rooker, I’m certainly not using Hiura as just a throw in. We would be getting a 2B/3B with 5 years of control that walks MORE than strikes out with an OBP approaching .400, an outfield prospect on the cusp of MLB who I believe will be a multiple time all-star and be a similar player to Alex Verdugo, and a long time first base fix who could essentially be slotted in opening day for us.

 

We get younger, cheaper, more controllable talent basically all at the MLB level filling 3 spots long term. It frees up money for next offseason where there is a nice batch of guys that would intrigue us to pair with Yelich on a long term deal (Rizzo, Bryant, Seager among others).

 

Edit to add that we haven’t produced squat for homegrown talent hitters since Braun other than Lucroy. Getting 3 guys for 5+ years each and filling 3 spots long term on the cheap to allow resources to be spent on a big bat like Rizzo while Yelich is in his prime seems to make too much sense in my eyes. Pair that with the talent we have in the rotation currently and abundance of more guys on the way the next year or two and we could be looking at a 4+ year window of 90+ wins. This trade sets up the future perfectly.

[DR28]

Agreed - no reason to include Hader and Hiura in the same trade. You typically can maximize trade returns by trading guys in separate deals.

 

And did I see that the Twins signed Colome yesterday for their pen, or did I see something incorrectly? Maybe it was just someone speculating on a deal?

 

Correct, Colome signed with the Twins.

[MNBrew]

The Twins have some nice trade targets we could use but at this point I can't imagine they're a good match because they don't need the best assets we could offer.