Hader trade ideas

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Rays and Padres make sense as landing spots, but I’m not sure if they’ll be willing to give up that much for Hader. I think we’re long past the days when one could get the likes of Gleyber Torres for a closer.

 

I think it has been proven by now that the Cubs giving up a player like Torres was an aberration, and we probably need to stop using that move as a template for what can be expected for Hader. That was an incredibly short-sighted move for the Cubs (even though it did lead to a WS title), as it likely cut their projected window significantly.

 

That doesn't mean that the Brewers cannot get good value for Hader. But if you are expecting a top 10 MLB prospect talent, you're gonna be disappointed.

[brewcrewdue80]

The Rays and Padres make sense as landing spots, but I’m not sure if they’ll be willing to give up that much for Hader. I think we’re long past the days when one could get the likes of Gleyber Torres for a closer.

 

I think it has been proven by now that the Cubs giving up a player like Torres was an aberration, and we probably need to stop using that move as a template for what can be expected for Hader. That was an incredibly short-sighted move for the Cubs (even though it did lead to a WS title), as it likely cut their projected window significantly.

 

That doesn't mean that the Brewers cannot get good value for Hader. But if you are expecting a top 10 MLB prospect talent, you're gonna be disappointed.

I think we moved from a top 20 to the 25-40 range as a headliner between last offseason to here. What may be going on is the guys you want are top 20&untouchables by other teams or they aren't competitive to trade for Hader. Then where Hader's value sits, theres nobody you want. And taking less on guys you like but not for headliner is selling Hader short. Tamps seems ridiculous as a rumor because you know they have low payroll threshold. The only reason I see Tampa trading for Hader is with the idea to trade him the following offseason. 6plus mil works but 10mil is a hesitation.

I know Ive done this multiple times but I'll have to look at the top 100s out there to see if my thought still holds plausibility.

[wibadgers23]

I really find it hard to believe San Diego and Milwaukee couldn’t work out a trade for Hader. Even after all of the trades San Diego made this winter, they still have most of their top 10 prospects intact.

[JosephC]

Jeff Passan suggests we keep an eye on Tampa and San Diego as possible fits for Hader.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30796011/five-things-jeff-passan-hearing-frugal-10-actually-spend-bauer-market-another-all-star-trade-candidate

 

If you don't have an ESPN subscription, Bleacher Report summarizes: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2928921-josh-hader-trade-rumors-padres-rays-interested-suitors-for-brewers-star-rp

 

(apologies if this was already posted, but I didn't see it already elsewhere)

 

I was looking the the Rays values at baseballtradevalues...and what can I say? Austin Meadows with a surplus value of 19 million dollars? Really? That is valuing him like a 1 WAR player per year over the next four seasons. I realize that, just looking at the math, that Meadows has been a 4 WAR player and has 2.5 years of service time, which would make him a 1.6 WAR per season player so far. And even that number is skewed because that counts 2020 as a full season but 2020 was really only 37% of a season. But wouldn't pretty much everyone expect him to outperform that over the next four years? I know I would.

 

I have moved solidly into the "hold" category when it comes to Josh Hader. I also wouldn't put any sort of priority on picking up a 4th outfielder. But if the Rays called and offered a straight up Hader for Austin Meadows deal, I'd have a real hard time turning that one down (not to imply that Meadows would be picked up to be a fourth outfielder, sorry Avisail).

[adambr2]

The Rays and Padres make sense as landing spots, but I’m not sure if they’ll be willing to give up that much for Hader. I think we’re long past the days when one could get the likes of Gleyber Torres for a closer.

 

I think it has been proven by now that the Cubs giving up a player like Torres was an aberration, and we probably need to stop using that move as a template for what can be expected for Hader. That was an incredibly short-sighted move for the Cubs (even though it did lead to a WS title), as it likely cut their projected window significantly.

 

That doesn't mean that the Brewers cannot get good value for Hader. But if you are expecting a top 10 MLB prospect talent, you're gonna be disappointed.

I think we moved from a top 20 to the 25-40 range as a headliner between last offseason to here. What may be going on is the guys you want are top 20&untouchables by other teams or they aren't competitive to trade for Hader. Then where Hader's value sits, theres nobody you want. And taking less on guys you like but not for headliner is selling Hader short. Tamps seems ridiculous as a rumor because you know they have low payroll threshold. The only reason I see Tampa trading for Hader is with the idea to trade him the following offseason. 6plus mil works but 10mil is a hesitation.

I know Ive done this multiple times but I'll have to look at the top 100s out there to see if my thought still holds plausibility.

 

I am certain that the Brewers do not care about a subjective prospect ranking list in their willingness to trade Hader. I am sure there are top 50-60 prospects that they are quite high on and top 20 guys that they like less.

 

With that said I don't see anything in the trade market lately to suggest that either of those types of prospects are available for Hader. What I would guess is on the table for Hader is a quantity over quality type deal that would leave most fans scratching their heads and looking up their names. It would not surprise me if said return did not even include a single top 100 prospect let alone a top 40.

 

So far the Brewers are unwilling to part with Hader on such a return and that is perfectly understandable and why I think Hader will remain in Milwaukee.

[nate82]

I think for a trade with the Padres to work it would looks something like this:

 

Padres get: Hader and Henry

Brewers get: Myers, Hassell, Ona, and Weathers

 

With the Padres sending over $8m in cash.

 

Myers solves the 1B issue for the Brewers. The Brewers also get two good OF prospects in Hassell and Ona and a good LHP in Weathers. Probably not the headline that everyone would be looking for in a Hader trade but this is the best that I could come up with in trading with the Padres. Gore and Abrams are off limits in this trade.

[wntrtxn21]

I think for a trade with the Padres to work it would looks something like this:

 

Padres get: Hader and Henry

Brewers get: Myers, Hassell, Ona, and Weathers

 

With the Padres sending over $8m in cash.

 

Myers solves the 1B issue for the Brewers. The Brewers also get two good OF prospects in Hassell and Ona and a good LHP in Weathers. Probably not the headline that everyone would be looking for in a Hader trade but this is the best that I could come up with in trading with the Padres. Gore and Abrams are off limits in this trade.

 

You do know Myers is scheduled to make $46M over the next two years. Arnold would never in a million years take on that kind of money for a player like Myers. Weathers is in A ball and didn't do that well there. Ona has barely been in AA and Hassell hasn't even started his career.

[brewmann04]

I would like to see the Crew Add a 3rd baseman and at least one top flight rotation guy

[trwi7]

I would like to see the Crew Add a 3rd baseman and at least one top flight rotation guy

 

For a reliever. Good luck with that.

[JosephC]

I'm still firmly in the hold position when it comes to Hader. Would rather wait until mid-season, see how the Brewers are doing, and if they are in the midst of a mediocre season then see what kind of return other teams are willing to offer.

 

My best guess on if a trade with a rumored club were to happen now-

 

Rays get-

LHP - Josh Hader

 

Brewers get-

3B - Mike Brosseau (a complete "non-prospect" who OPS'ed .855 in the minors and so far has OPS'ed .843 in the majors)

RHP - Shane Baz (#86 on MLB.com's top 100 prospect list)

SS - Taylor Walls (#19 on MLB.com's Ray's top 30 prospect list)

 

-----------------------------------------------------

 

Padres get-

LHP - Josh Hader

 

Brewers get-

LHP - Tim Hill (very funky lefty reliever with a 4.18 ERA/3.81 FIP/3.62 xFIP in 103 1/3 MLB innings)

LHP - Ryan Weathers (#5 on MLB.com's Padre's top 30 prospect list...likely just barely outside of top 100)

RHP - Brayan Medina (#15 on MLB.com's Padres's top 30 prospect list)

RHP - Efrain Contreras (#27 on MLB.com's Padre's top 30 prospect list)

[wibadgers23]

I'm still firmly in the hold position when it comes to Hader. Would rather wait until mid-season, see how the Brewers are doing, and if they are in the midst of a mediocre season then see what kind of return other teams are willing to offer.

 

My best guess on if a trade with a rumored club were to happen now-

 

Rays get-

LHP - Josh Hader

 

Brewers get-

3B - Mike Brosseau (a complete "non-prospect" who OPS'ed .855 in the minors and so far has OPS'ed .843 in the majors)

RHP - Shane Baz (#86 on MLB.com's top 100 prospect list)

SS - Taylor Walls (#19 on MLB.com's Ray's top 30 prospect list)

 

-----------------------------------------------------

 

Padres get-

LHP - Josh Hader

 

Brewers get-

LHP - Tim Hill (very funky lefty reliever with a 4.18 ERA/3.81 FIP/3.62 xFIP in 103 1/3 MLB innings)

LHP - Ryan Weathers (#5 on MLB.com's Padre's top 30 prospect list...likely just barely outside of top 100)

RHP - Brayan Medina (#15 on MLB.com's Padres's top 30 prospect list)

RHP - Efrain Contreras (#27 on MLB.com's Padre's top 30 prospect list)

 

If those are the offers we’ve been getting for Hader then I can see why he’s still a Brewer. Or maybe I need to re-evaluate my expectations a bit.

[Eye Black]

If those are the offers we’ve been getting for Hader then I can see why he’s still a Brewer. Or maybe I need to re-evaluate my expectations a bit.

I think it's probably the latter. I know we all want an amazing return in a Hader trade, but think of it in the context of if the Brewers were in the market for a reliever and bidding for Hader. Do you think there is any chance they would entertain trading players like either Burnes or Hiura to acquire a reliever (no matter how good)?

 

That Rays trade proposal would be good value for Hader, IMO.

 

Of course there is a perfectly good argument for just keeping Hader as well. I do agree that teams are likely to be a bit more desperate for a reliever at mid-season, but of course that also assumes the risk that Hader will continue to perform as one of the very best relievers in the game, which is obviously a high bar to stay above.

[wntrtxn21]

I'm still firmly in the hold position when it comes to Hader. Would rather wait until mid-season, see how the Brewers are doing, and if they are in the midst of a mediocre season then see what kind of return other teams are willing to offer.

 

My best guess on if a trade with a rumored club were to happen now-

 

Rays get-

LHP - Josh Hader

 

Brewers get-

3B - Mike Brosseau (a complete "non-prospect" who OPS'ed .855 in the minors and so far has OPS'ed .843 in the majors)

RHP - Shane Baz (#86 on MLB.com's top 100 prospect list)

SS - Taylor Walls (#19 on MLB.com's Ray's top 30 prospect list)

 

-----------------------------------------------------

 

Padres get-

LHP - Josh Hader

 

Brewers get-

LHP - Tim Hill (very funky lefty reliever with a 4.18 ERA/3.81 FIP/3.62 xFIP in 103 1/3 MLB innings)

LHP - Ryan Weathers (#5 on MLB.com's Padre's top 30 prospect list...likely just barely outside of top 100)

RHP - Brayan Medina (#15 on MLB.com's Padres's top 30 prospect list)

RHP - Efrain Contreras (#27 on MLB.com's Padre's top 30 prospect list)

 

At least in your Rays proposal the Brewers get some immediate help. In your Padres trade it looks like you'd be giving up on winning. Hader is gone and no help for 2-5 years. IMO the Brewers have to fill 3B or 1B in any Hader trade. Otherwise keep him until the deadline.

[Eye Black]

At least in your Rays proposal the Brewers get some immediate help. In your Padres trade it looks like you'd be giving up on winning. Hader is gone and no help for 2-5 years. IMO the Brewers have to fill 3B or 1B in any Hader trade. Otherwise keep him until the deadline.

Agreed, the Rays proposal is much more appealing. I do believe the rumor that the Brewers are looking for both major league talent and prospects in a Hader trade. I like a trade that includes Brosseau, but it could be argued the primary piece in that offer is Walls who is likely to be in the majors this year.

 

It's also why I still think the Blue Jays make some sense. Rowdy Tellez is probably the most likely "major league piece" you could get from them, but packaged with some of their prospects could be enticing.

 

The Padres I have a harder time finding a major league piece that makes sense. If they still had Ty France I think he would've been intriguing as a major league component to be added along with prospects, but that ship has obviously sailed.

[Jopal78]

The fact they haven’t traded Hader by now means almost assuredly he is going to start the year with the Brewers.

 

The combination of facts: that he is dominant, well-paid and Milwaukee is not going to give him away made a deal unlikely from the get-go

[Brock42]

I’m of the camp that you don’t trade elite talent unless absolutely necessary regardless of position. There’s no pressing need to trade Hader especially if you are trying to contend. I’d keep keep him unless another team comes in and blows us over with an offer that significantly will make our team better in the short and long term.

[Lathund]

I'd take that TB trade. Both prospects are 50 FVs per the newly released Fangraphs list. As a comparison, Brewers 2021 list isn't updated yet but the midseason 2020 list only had one 50 FV prospect (Turang). So even if some Brewers prospects get upgraded, those two would be among our best prospects. Baz is a long way away, but Walls had a 135 wRC+ in AA in 2019, so should be mostly MLB ready if he had no major setbacks in 2020. Switch hitting middle infielder, who is on the 40-man, at spots where TB have Brandon Lowe, Willy Adames and the best prospect in baseball; Wander Franco. So probably someone they'd be open to discussing.

 

Brosseau has had very limited playing time, but has looked good in what he had. Heard good things about his attitude and work rate too (Went undrafted, worked his way onto a WS roster). I think his strikeout rate will hold him back and he won't be the 128 wRC+ hitter he has been so far, but he is at least a clear update based on the current roster even if he's more like a 110 wRC+ type.

 

I have a lot of faith in the Brewers ability to develop relievers. Meaning that while obviously losing Hader will weaken the bullpen no matter what, I think they'll be able to cope. Given the current roster construction with how weak corner IF looks, I believe Mike Brosseau and $6m salary saved (If spent...) will win the Brewers more games in 2021 than Josh Hader would. If prospects pan out (Or can be flipped again), it just keeps adding.

 

Like it's not a sexy deal and we'd be hoping for more, but I think it's about on point for what an elite reliever can realistically net for a return. Mind you, I don't actually buy that TB are all that interested. They seem to be similar to the Brewers in that they don't spend money on relievers.

[brewmann04]

I think they have to get a 3rd base prospect along with a potential Starter.

[LincolnDD]

I think they have to get a 3rd base prospect along with a potential Starter.

 

With recent rumors linking the Reds to Tampa's shortstop Willy Adames, could be a fun three-way deal that sends Hader to Tampa and nets Jonathan India in return. Not sure how keen the Reds would be on dealing him, especially to a division rival. India can also play second, but they're pretty loaded long-term there with Suarez and Moose (and I think Senzel can handle second as well).

 

Keith Law had India at 88 in his top 100 he released the other day, and said he looked good at the off-site last year after a rough 2019. MLB didn't have him in the top 100, but did have him as the #9 third base prospect.

[Madhawk23]

I think they have to get a 3rd base prospect along with a potential Starter.

 

With recent rumors linking the Reds to Tampa's shortstop Willy Adames, could be a fun three-way deal that sends Hader to Tampa and nets Jonathan India in return. Not sure how keen the Reds would be on dealing him, especially to a division rival. India can also play second, but they're pretty loaded long-term there with Suarez and Moose (and I think Senzel can handle second as well).

 

Keith Law had India at 88 in his top 100 he released the other day, and said he looked good at the off-site last year after a rough 2019. MLB didn't have him in the top 100, but did have him as the #9 third base prospect.

 

I'm not always sure how these 3-team trades work, but just to piggy-back off your thoughts - would these possibly work out:

 

Brewers get:

Mike Brosseau

Shane Baz

Jonathan India

 

Rays get:

Josh Hader

 

Reds get:

Willy Adames

 

My gut says that the Rays are giving up too much here, and the Reds may need to send a player to the Rays in this deal to make it happen?

[JosephC]

I think they have to get a 3rd base prospect along with a potential Starter.

 

With recent rumors linking the Reds to Tampa's shortstop Willy Adames, could be a fun three-way deal that sends Hader to Tampa and nets Jonathan India in return. Not sure how keen the Reds would be on dealing him, especially to a division rival. India can also play second, but they're pretty loaded long-term there with Suarez and Moose (and I think Senzel can handle second as well).

 

Keith Law had India at 88 in his top 100 he released the other day, and said he looked good at the off-site last year after a rough 2019. MLB didn't have him in the top 100, but did have him as the #9 third base prospect.

 

I'm not always sure how these 3-team trades work, but just to piggy-back off your thoughts - would these possibly work out:

 

Brewers get:

Mike Brosseau

Shane Baz

Jonathan India

 

Rays get:

Josh Hader

 

Reds get:

Willy Adames

 

My gut says that the Rays are giving up too much here, and the Reds may need to send a player to the Rays in this deal to make it happen?

 

That would be a horrible deal for Tampa Bay. Adames has emerged and looks like a solid 3+ WAR per season player moving forward. So they give up him, a top 100 prospect in Baz and Brosseau and all they get back is Hader? The Reds would make out like bandits on this one.

 

I have the package going to the Brewers being worth about +42.8 million, and would have Hader's value at about 10 million less than that. If the Brewers threw in Feliciano to the Rays, it would make it even from the Brewer's perspective....about 42/43 million coming to them, about 42/43 million going away from them. Then the Rays would have to get a couple significant pieces from the Reds because that is the really lop-sided aspect of this proposal.

[Madhawk23]

OK - I figured I probably didn't have that fair enough for all three sides, which is why I mentioned that the Reds might have to pony up another good player in this deal that would go to the Rays. I just don't know what the Rays needs are to best evaluate who the Reds could send to them that would make this deal more appealing? Also, are the Rays really shopping Adames, or are we just assuming that they might be soon here since they have Wander Franco coming quickly?

[JackNicholson1974]

I’m of the camp that you don’t trade elite talent unless absolutely necessary regardless of position. There’s no pressing need to trade Hader especially if you are trying to contend. I’d keep keep him unless another team comes in and blows us over with an offer that significantly will make our team better in the short and long term.

 

I agree.

[RollieTime]

I think they have to get a 3rd base prospect along with a potential Starter.

 

With recent rumors linking the Reds to Tampa's shortstop Willy Adames, could be a fun three-way deal that sends Hader to Tampa and nets Jonathan India in return. Not sure how keen the Reds would be on dealing him, especially to a division rival. India can also play second, but they're pretty loaded long-term there with Suarez and Moose (and I think Senzel can handle second as well).

 

Keith Law had India at 88 in his top 100 he released the other day, and said he looked good at the off-site last year after a rough 2019. MLB didn't have him in the top 100, but did have him as the #9 third base prospect.

 

How about we go after Adames straight up? Just move Hiura to first base and solve that issue and forget about him improving at second, we lock in Adames as the everyday shortstop for the foreseeable future, with Urias sliding over to 2B? After talking that whole situation out, I could really get behind this idea! That would give us a fantastic young core of Adames, Hiura, Urias, and Narvaez to an extent, bring in Justin Turner on a 3 year deal to get him to Milwaukee and we could really have a great offense.

 

CF Cain

LF Yelich

3B Turner

SS Adames

1B Hiura

C Narvaez

RF Garcia

2B Urias

P

 

Then go out and sign a lefty 4th outfielder like Jackie Bradley Jr. to get another lefty bat on the roster. I would be quite satisfied with this for an offseason. But what would it cost the Brewers to get Adames?

[RollieTime]

According to the trade simulator, which I don’t fully agree with, but Adrian Houser and Brice Turang seems about fair for Adames. Throw in Arcia if they want him too. I would do this deal and sign someone like Mike Fiers. And to prove a point of how unreliable that site is, Hader’s current trade value is 15.5 So essentially one prospect in the 85-100 range and that’s it. For 3 years of the best reliever in baseball two of the last three seasons.