Hader trade ideas

[wntrtxn21]

I see the Mets as our best trade partner with so many options at the corner IF spots and an owner who is looking to swing for the fences with the Lindor trade. Something like D. Smith and Brett Baty for Hader and one of our catchers (Pina/Nottingham) makes sense for both sides. We can then look to sign a stop gap 3B like Justin Turner (2yrs/$24MM) until Baty is ready to take over.

 

Cain, Yelich, Hiura, Smith, Turner, Garcia, Narvaez, Arcia/Urias is a solid lineup.

 

I hope you don't really think the Brewers would be in on any Turner talk, especially if it would blow up the payroll by $12-14M. It would take more than Hader/Pina to get D. Smith. Plus the Mets just signed McCann to a big contract and I doubt that would want another catcher in a trade.

[wntrtxn21]

There had been the rumors that the Blue Jays may be getting pretty aggressive with player moves. That's a team that I would love to be in the Hader mix. They seem really rich in the prospect tier that would likely be available in a Hader deal (Groshans, Woods Richardson, Manoah, etc).

 

I don't see how the Brewers get any of the players you mentioned from the Blue Jays in a Hader trade.

 

I think a Hader trade with the Blue Jays looks more like this:

 

3B Hiraldo

2B Machado

RHP Castro

RHP Kloffenstein

 

I hope the Brewers are looking at a lot more than maybes and never will be's in any Hader trade. They have a chance to win the weak NL Central this year, and trading Hader for maybes makes them much worse.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I see the Mets as our best trade partner with so many options at the corner IF spots and an owner who is looking to swing for the fences with the Lindor trade. Something like D. Smith and Brett Baty for Hader and one of our catchers (Pina/Nottingham) makes sense for both sides. We can then look to sign a stop gap 3B like Justin Turner (2yrs/$24MM) until Baty is ready to take over.

 

Cain, Yelich, Hiura, Smith, Turner, Garcia, Narvaez, Arcia/Urias is a solid lineup.

 

I hope you don't really think the Brewers would be in on any Turner talk, especially if it would blow up the payroll by $12-14M. It would take more than Hader/Pina to get D. Smith. Plus the Mets just signed McCann to a big contract and I doubt that would want another catcher in a trade.

 

You really think a 1B bat is worth that much in this current market? There seems to be a lot of those types of bats out there, and they don't necessarily seem to be very expensive, at least to me. Yes, Smith brings some youth and cheap control years, but "take more than Hader/Pina"? Really?

 

If that's the case (which I think I disagree with), NO thanks!

[wallus]

I wish people would stop talking about the payroll like they know what it will be.... especially in the trade forum.

[brewmann04]

I think if DS does move Hader the haul will be much less than most think.

[BrewBalls]

I see the Mets as our best trade partner with so many options at the corner IF spots and an owner who is looking to swing for the fences with the Lindor trade. Something like D. Smith and Brett Baty for Hader and one of our catchers (Pina/Nottingham) makes sense for both sides. We can then look to sign a stop gap 3B like Justin Turner (2yrs/$24MM) until Baty is ready to take over.

 

Cain, Yelich, Hiura, Smith, Turner, Garcia, Narvaez, Arcia/Urias is a solid lineup.

 

I hope you don't really think the Brewers would be in on any Turner talk, especially if it would blow up the payroll by $12-14M. It would take more than Hader/Pina to get D. Smith. Plus the Mets just signed McCann to a big contract and I doubt that would want another catcher in a trade.

Dominic Smith was lucky the NL had a DH last season or he wouldn’t have seen many ABs last season. Relievers are much more valuable than a young 1B unless he’s an elite offensive talent which Smith is not.

 

We also could still wind up with a payroll around $80-85MM since most of our rotation is still pre-arbitration eligible.

 

Rotation: Woodruff, Burnes, Houser, Lindblom, Lauer

 

Bullpen: D. Williams, Peralta, Yardley, Suter, Topa, Rasmussen, Black, Wahl/Feyereisen/Bickford

 

Lineup: Cain, Yelich, Hiura, Smith, Turner, Garcia, Narvaez, Arcia

 

Bench: Pina, Vogelbach, Urias, Mathias/Reyes, Taylor, T. Flores/Ray

 

Add a couple veterans for $2-3MM total and the payroll is still sitting around $81-82MM

[JosephC]

I had cranked the numbers on Smith a couple weeks ago. Needless to say he's one of the hardest guys to assign numbers to because of playing time, DH or no DH, etc, etc, etc. Pro-rate out 2020 to a full season and he's averaged 1.8 WAR over the last three years. But that number includes a full 2020, which in the grand scheme probably really over-estimates his value. However, there are what would qualify as partial seasons earlier which definitely under-estimates his value when looking at 3 year numbers. He's been credited with 2.85 years of service time (2 years, 146 days) and has only been a 1.9 bWAR player and a 1.6 fWAR player...so looking at those numbers, has really only been a 0.6 WAR player per season during his MLB career. But again, for much of those 2.85 years he was stuck on the bench, and I'd bet 30/30 MLB GMs would project him as being significantly higher than a 0.6 WAR per season player moving forward. This is a guy who has slashed .299/.366/.571/.937 over his last 396 plate appearances.

 

I ended up projecting him as a 1.8 WAR player per season over the next few years and that number is the midpoint of what he's actually done over the last two seasons and the projections for 2021 (which seem really low to me).

 

It's worth noting that he is a super two guy so that knocks down his surplus value significantly.

 

I came up with a surplus value for Smith of 33.2 million. I've projected Hader as a 2.2 WAR player per season over the next three years and also have his surplus value in the 30-35 million range. IMO a straight-up swap of the two would be a pretty fair deal.

[Eye Black]

Per Mark Feinsand:

 

Mets and Dominic Smith settle at $2.55 million to avoid arbitration, per source.

 

If the Mets are considering moving Smith in any deals it is probably helpful to now have cost certainty for 2021.

[nate82]

The Mets can be removed as a possible trade partner with them supposedly signing Hand.

[TURBO]

I have accepted the fact that Hader will not be traded this off season. Maybe at the deadline in July. I just don't see it happening.

[adambr2]

The Mets can be removed as a possible trade partner with them supposedly signing Hand.

 

 

The Mets haven't signed Hand yet. But I never really get why anyone would exclude Hader as a possible trade target just because they sign someone like Brad Hand. You need a lot more than 1 reliever to fill out a bullpen. You can't be too deep in your bullpen. If we were signing a high end shortstop and then crossing that position off your list, that's a little different. But it's not like Josh Hader isn't important to us because we have Devin Williams.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I have accepted the fact that Hader will not be traded this off season. Maybe at the deadline in July. I just don't see it happening.

 

If that happens, having the makings of a super pen isn't so bad of a fallback, IMO. Hopefully Hader can continue his dominant play.

[nate82]

The Mets can be removed as a possible trade partner with them supposedly signing Hand.

 

 

The Mets haven't signed Hand yet. But I never really get why anyone would exclude Hader as a possible trade target just because they sign someone like Brad Hand. You need a lot more than 1 reliever to fill out a bullpen. You can't be too deep in your bullpen. If we were signing a high end shortstop and then crossing that position off your list, that's a little different. But it's not like Josh Hader isn't important to us because we have Devin Williams.

 

While true there are other free agents that will cost about the same maybe a little bit more than Hader and not cost the Mets a prospect. If the Mets trade all of their prospects now they won't be able to make a trade during the deadline. If the Mets need bullpen help during the deadline then sure but right now we can safely cross them off the list at this time.

[DR28]

The Mets can be removed as a possible trade partner with them supposedly signing Hand.

 

 

The Mets haven't signed Hand yet. But I never really get why anyone would exclude Hader as a possible trade target just because they sign someone like Brad Hand. You need a lot more than 1 reliever to fill out a bullpen. You can't be too deep in your bullpen. If we were signing a high end shortstop and then crossing that position off your list, that's a little different. But it's not like Josh Hader isn't important to us because we have Devin Williams.

 

But how do we know Devin will make a good closer? Not everyone can close, we know what we have in Josh.

 

Keep Devin/Josh and we'll be tough to beat with a lead in the 8th.

[adambr2]

The Mets can be removed as a possible trade partner with them supposedly signing Hand.

 

 

The Mets haven't signed Hand yet. But I never really get why anyone would exclude Hader as a possible trade target just because they sign someone like Brad Hand. You need a lot more than 1 reliever to fill out a bullpen. You can't be too deep in your bullpen. If we were signing a high end shortstop and then crossing that position off your list, that's a little different. But it's not like Josh Hader isn't important to us because we have Devin Williams.

 

But how do we know Devin will make a good closer? Not everyone can close, we know what we have in Josh.

 

Keep Devin/Josh and we'll be tough to beat with a lead in the 8th.

 

I agree with keeping them and I'm not advocating for Devin to close. My point was that you can't have too much pen help.

[brewcrewdue80]

Now that he's signed (surprised!) the rumors can truly begin we have a determined value for this season and project the following 2 seasons.

[Madhawk23]

OK - with Hand now officially signing with the Nats tonight, do we think there is any chance the Mets would try to make a run at Hader? My guess is that they probably aren't desperate enough to make DS a good enough offer, but curious what everyone else thinks.

 

J.D. Davis and Brett Baty for Hader?

 

Guessing the Mets would not do a package like that?

[Soupbone]

My guess is that the Brewers want to see if the offense rebounds from last year. If it does and with the pitching we have we can win the Central. That is not anything new to anybody but here is my problem with the bigger picture. It is pretty easy to say that the Dodgers, Padres, Mets and Braves have better teams than the Brewers. Then you have the Nats, Cardinals and Phillies who are at least as hopeful as the Brewers. We are a middle of the pack team in the NL.

[PeaveyFury]

OK - with Hand now officially signing with the Nats tonight, do we think there is any chance the Mets would try to make a run at Hader? My guess is that they probably aren't desperate enough to make DS a good enough offer, but curious what everyone else thinks.

 

J.D. Davis and Brett Baty for Hader?

 

Guessing the Mets would not do a package like that?

 

Just say no to Davis unless the DH is here to stay permanently. He'd make Ozuna look like a competent defensive player if we ask him to play 3rd everyday.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

May not mean anything...but none of the promo stuff coming from the Brewers has Hader included. Yelich, woody, etc. hader has been the lone missing star player. Again, may not mean anything. But found it interesting non the less.

[monty57]

Relievers are much more valuable than a young 1B unless he’s an elite offensive talent which Smith is not.

 

I can't agree with this. I'd say that in general relievers are less valuable than any full-time position player. Now, Hader is an elite talent at reliever, so he's more valuable than most relievers, but he's not worth as much as an elite position player with the same contract/service time.

 

Hader is a good piece for the team to have, so if a trade can't be found I'm fine holding on to him. I'm glad the team is looking at offers because he's probably at peak value, which will diminish as his salary goes up and his service time goes down, and he is eventually going to be paid more than the Brewers should be paying for a closer.

 

It stinks to live on a budget, but the Brewers should probably use their "big dollar contracts" on other positions... especially when they have a lot of pitching talent in the minors that should bolster their bullpen for the coming years, but are thin on position player talent.

[wibadgers23]

Per Robert Murray, Brewers continue to listen to trade inquiries on Hader but asking price is overwhelming. Not exactly breaking news as this is what we figured.

[Warning Track Power]

Having some fun and spitballing here.

 

2021 is Nolan Arenado's age 30 season. He is signed for 6 years at $199m with an opt-out after this season. If Arenado would agree to not opt-out after 2021, and the Rockies would cover say $49m of the deal, would you trade Hader straight up for him?

 

Brewers would be on the hook for 6 years and $150m of an elite middle of the order bat and elite defender to pair with Yelich for the next half-decade. The Rockies not only get out from under the big contract, but they get an elite reliever they could flip if need be. Yelich and Arenado combined would be owed ~$50m annually. Can the Brewers surround them with enough talent giving that much $ to two players?

[wallus]

I hope you don't really think the Brewers would be in on any Turner talk, especially if it would blow up the payroll by $12-14M.

 

[wntrtxn21]

Having some fun and spitballing here.

 

2021 is Nolan Arenado's age 30 season. He is signed for 6 years at $199m with an opt-out after this season. If Arenado would agree to not opt-out after 2021, and the Rockies would cover say $49m of the deal, would you trade Hader straight up for him?

 

Brewers would be on the hook for 6 years and $150m of an elite middle of the order bat and elite defender to pair with Yelich for the next half-decade. The Rockies not only get out from under the big contract, but they get an elite reliever they could flip if need be. Yelich and Arenado combined would be owed ~$50m annually. Can the Brewers surround them with enough talent giving that much $ to two players?

 

Your answer is NO. Assuming the budget is $90M, with the defered money owed, that would leave approx. $35M for 24 guys. Cain at $17M leaves $18M for 23 guys. Woodruff and Lindblom $6.5M leaves $13.5M for 21 guys. Almost all of the remaining 21 players would have to be making minimum salary.