Hader trade ideas

[wibadgers23]

Really hoping that San Diego and LA end up in a bidding war for Hader. That would end very well for the Brewers.

[DR28]

I dont see why the Padres wouldnt just re-sign Yates.

[MadThinker88]

I dont see why the Padres wouldnt just re-sign Yates.

or bring back Brad Hand....

[DR28]

I dont see why the Padres wouldnt just re-sign Yates.

or bring back Brad Hand....

 

Agreed, there's plenty of closers available to sign.

 

I guess I just don't see them giving up more prospects for Hader.

[TURBO]

I dont see why the Padres wouldnt just re-sign Yates.

or bring back Brad Hand....

 

Agreed, there's plenty of closers available to sign.

 

I guess I just don't see them giving up more prospects for Hader.

 

Good takes, I agree with all of them...

 

Signing the above guys cost them no prospects, Nothing...

 

I think Brewers fans that think the Dodgers and Padres will have a bidding war for Hader are mistaken...

[DR28]

Good takes, I agree with all of them...

 

Signing the above guys cost them no prospects, Nothing...

 

I think Brewers fans that think the Dodgers and Padres will have a bidding war for Hader are mistaken...

 

Agreed, neither have a reason to trade more prospects for Hader when Hand, Hendricks, etc are out there to sign.

[brewerfan82]

Tack on that Hader's estimated to make $5.65M this year with significant increases each of the next two years after that, those options may cost less financially as well.

 

I just wouldn't be desperate enough to give anything up for him if I was another team right now. You're better off starting the season with what you got and see if there's a need. Then *if* your bullpen is failing *and* Hader hasn't fallen off a cliff, *maybe* you overvalue him enough at the trade deadline to make an offer the Brewers will pull the trigger on. Even then, that's going to be hard for the Brewers to do *if* they're competing for a playoff spot.

 

But we'll see!

[Eye Black]

Quote from AJ Preller earlier today on what he’s still working on:

 

"Now we'll continue to look at rounding out the roster. We're in the process of finalizing a few things. We always talk about the bullpen, which has to be re-shuffled each year. Definitely looking at the bullpen mix."

[JosephC]

Yesterday I was looking up the projected WARs of some players to get an idea of possible trades. Kind of kicking around an idea that would start with Kris Bryant to the Mets (big-name but very little surplus value due to just 1 year of control left), J.D. Davis (and maybe Dominic Smith as well) to the Brewers to fill their holes, and Josh Hader to the Mets with the Cubs and Brewers throwing a whole lot more to the Mets to get this all to work. I was shocked to see that Steamer is only projecting Hader as a 1.0 WAR player in 2021. Personally, I think Hader good for about 6.6 WAR over the next three years, which would put his surplus value in the 30-35 million range. But if MLB teams only project him as a 3 WAR player over the next three years, then his surplus value is probably less than 5 million and the Brewers are only likely to get a couple lottery ticket type prospects for him.

 

If that is how the market is evaluating Hader, then him being a "hold" is the easiest decision in the history of major league baseball.

 

I really have a problem with Steamer's number on Hader. If you pro-rate 2020's numbers out for a full year, Hader was only a 1 bWAR/fWAR player. But he was at 2.5 bWAR/fWAR in 2019 and 2.4 bWAR/fWAR in 2018. Meanwhile, you have a guy like J.D. Davis for the Mets. Same numbers for Davis is 0.9 in 2020, 1.7 in 2019 and -0.8 in 2018...Steamer projects him at 2.2 for 2021. I'd be really interested to see how they came up with that number for Davis as it's at a level that he's never come close to in the past.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Steamer has always been, well, a steaming pile of dog poo when it comes to Brewers projections.

 

Also, IMO, WAR is a rough way to judge reliever value. That stat unfairly hurts relievers because it doesn't take high leverage innings and situations into account. It downgrades relievers simply because they don't pitch many innings to accumulate counting stats.

[Lathund]

Steamer's batter projections can be decent enough, but I'm not at all a fan of their pitching projections. They seem to just straight up regress everyone towards the mean no matter the underlying context. Which is something that, on the whole, gives low deviations since that's usually what happens overall. But it's quite useless for individual projections.

 

ZiPS is released for every team except the Pirates (Should be any day now), that's what I'd use. PECOTA is good too, but won't be released for a while yet. ZiPS is much higher on Hader.

 

As for J.D Davis, two things; Firstly Steamer uses fWAR not rWAR. By fWAR he had 2.4 in 453 PAs in 2019, and of course 2020 was just 200-odd PAs for any full time player. If their underlying numbers don't scream "fluke" then a 2 WAR projection with 550 PAs seems very reasonable.

 

Also, IMO, WAR is a rough way to judge reliever value. That stat unfairly hurts relievers because it doesn't take high leverage innings and situations into account. It downgrades relievers simply because they don't pitch many innings to accumulate counting stats.

 

I agree that on the whole WAR isn't perfect for relivers. But fWAR takes leverage into account, and I believe WARP does too. And of course it *should* downgrade relievers because they don't pitch many innings, question is just how much.

[Eye Black]

I really have a problem with Steamer's number on Hader. If you pro-rate 2020's numbers out for a full year, Hader was only a 1 bWAR/fWAR player. But he was at 2.5 bWAR/fWAR in 2019 and 2.4 bWAR/fWAR in 2018. Meanwhile, you have a guy like J.D. Davis for the Mets. Same numbers for Davis is 0.9 in 2020, 1.7 in 2019 and -0.8 in 2018...Steamer projects him at 2.2 for 2021. I'd be really interested to see how they came up with that number for Davis as it's at a level that he's never come close to in the past.

On the opposite end of the spectrum Davenport projections have Hader at 76.2 IP and a 3.0 WARP for 2021. I’d probably take the under, but it’s a fun projection.

[DR28]

Well another Hader team probably out.... Dodgers re-signed Blake Treinen to 2 yr deal.

 

Totally fine, just keep Hader.

[brewmann04]

You see Hader traded within a year and would not be shocked to see Yelich being moved in the future also.

[wibadgers23]

I still think the chances of a Hader trade are unlikely but I wonder if interest in him ramps up once Hand and Hendriks are off the market?

[Simba2020]

I still think the chances of a Hader trade are unlikely but I wonder if interest in him ramps up once Hand and Hendriks are off the market?

That is my opinion too. Not sure it makes that much organizational sense to give up draft capital when you can add a solid reliever through free agency. Once the supply of higher-end relievers are gone, then trading for one is the only option left so that's when teams might shift towards Hader.

 

The Dodgers further bolstering of their bullpen may trigger a counter move by the Padres as well.

[Jopal78]

Hader won’t be traded this off-season. With the glut or relief pitchers currently available as free agents. A team could get 70% of Hader’s production without giving up anything besides money. Not to mention the Brewers are going to want premium talent not just lottery tickets in return.

[DR28]

Yea Dodgers wont be acquiring Hader... They have entered the Brad Hand sweepstakes.

[Madhawk23]

Yea Dodgers wont be acquiring Hader... They have entered the Brad Hand sweepstakes.

 

As much as I wanted to pair up with LA on a Hader deal, I also wouldn't be too upset to see them go out and get Hand to go along with their Treinen signing. Having one team eat up a couple of these high end guys, should then just help more teams remain in the market for high-end relief help as the winter goes along. Also, as someone else stated - maybe it forces the Padres to then make a run at Hader?

[DR28]

Yea Dodgers wont be acquiring Hader... They have entered the Brad Hand sweepstakes.

 

As much as I wanted to pair up with LA on a Hader deal, I also wouldn't be too upset to see them go out and get Hand to go along with their Treinen signing. Having one team eat up a couple of these high end guys, should then just help more teams remain in the market for high-end relief help as the winter goes along. Also, as someone else stated - maybe it forces the Padres to then make a run at Hader?

 

Padres can just resign Yates... Which they have interest in doing.

[JosephC]

With all of the recent graduations, it just doesn't seem like the Dodger's system is all that great anymore (and the Brewers won't be getting Lux or Mays in a Hader deal).

 

There had been the rumors that the Blue Jays may be getting pretty aggressive with player moves. That's a team that I would love to be in the Hader mix. They seem really rich in the prospect tier that would likely be available in a Hader deal (Groshans, Woods Richardson, Manoah, etc).

[DR28]

With all of the recent graduations, it just doesn't seem like the Dodger's system is all that great anymore (and the Brewers won't be getting Lux or Mays in a Hader deal).

 

There had been the rumors that the Blue Jays may be getting pretty aggressive with player moves. That's a team that I would love to be in the Hader mix. They seem really rich in the prospect tier that would likely be available in a Hader deal (Groshans, Woods Richardson, Manoah, etc).

 

They can just sign one of the closers available.

[wibadgers23]

You’re right. The Blue Jays could just sign a reliever but what if the Dodgers or Mets or White Sox swoop in and sign them first? I agree, I like the match with Toronto and as you said, they look like they are going to be aggressive.

[nate82]

There had been the rumors that the Blue Jays may be getting pretty aggressive with player moves. That's a team that I would love to be in the Hader mix. They seem really rich in the prospect tier that would likely be available in a Hader deal (Groshans, Woods Richardson, Manoah, etc).

 

I don't see how the Brewers get any of the players you mentioned from the Blue Jays in a Hader trade.

 

I think a Hader trade with the Blue Jays looks more like this:

 

3B Hiraldo

2B Machado

RHP Castro

RHP Kloffenstein

[BrewBalls]

I see the Mets as our best trade partner with so many options at the corner IF spots and an owner who is looking to swing for the fences with the Lindor trade. Something like D. Smith and Brett Baty for Hader and one of our catchers (Pina/Nottingham) makes sense for both sides. We can then look to sign a stop gap 3B like Justin Turner (2yrs/$24MM) until Baty is ready to take over.

 

Cain, Yelich, Hiura, Smith, Turner, Garcia, Narvaez, Arcia/Urias is a solid lineup.