Hader trade ideas

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

That's not what I said. There were two possibilities -- that their grading had been off, or that the Brewers came out way ahead. The adjustment accounted for both of those possibilities, because even after the adjustment Urias and Leuer were still ranked SIGNIFICANTLY ahead of Grisham/Davies. And that's a point peiple keep disregarding. The site DID stick by its original assessment that Urias/Leuer were considerably more valuable. The adjustment accounted for the partial possibility that they were simply wrong, and as more time goes by, it does indeed look like they were wrong as were all experts who loved that trade for the Brewers.

 

I thought the main problem was that Grisham was criminally undervalued/underrated.

But not just by the site. By pundits, by fans, by prospect rankings when he was breaking out in AAA. He seems to be proving that to be true. And there's never going to be a perfect balance even in analytics, you're always going to have players who are overrated/underrated by a system or writer.

 

The "as time goes by" portion of your argument is null and void, though. The trade values site certainly didn't foresee Grisham's and Davies' strong 2020 seasons judging by their valuations of both players, especially before the trade.

 

Even if the site's justification in changing the values was to essentially "right a wrong", the optics of the timing were simply terrible. Since then, in essence, the "wrong" has been "righted" with the justified change in those players values after their 2020 performance. If you go in and do a "trade back", Davies/Grisham are now nearly double the surplus value of Urias/Lauer.

 

I think the crux of the issue is that the trade value site seems slow to update values on minor league players who "break out" in a quick fashion, such as what Grisham did, while they are also slow to lower the values on highly thought-of Top 100 guys like Urias when they don't live up to that advanced billing early on. They certainly didn't need to go in to their system the day of the trade and raise the value of the guys the Brewers traded off, though, while lowering the value of the guys the Brewers got back. At that time, those players did nothing to justify the value adjustments.

[adambr2]

That's not what I said. There were two possibilities -- that their grading had been off, or that the Brewers came out way ahead. The adjustment accounted for both of those possibilities, because even after the adjustment Urias and Leuer were still ranked SIGNIFICANTLY ahead of Grisham/Davies. And that's a point peiple keep disregarding. The site DID stick by its original assessment that Urias/Leuer were considerably more valuable. The adjustment accounted for the partial possibility that they were simply wrong, and as more time goes by, it does indeed look like they were wrong as were all experts who loved that trade for the Brewers.

 

I thought the main problem was that Grisham was criminally undervalued/underrated.

But not just by the site. By pundits, by fans, by prospect rankings when he was breaking out in AAA. He seems to be proving that to be true. And there's never going to be a perfect balance even in analytics, you're always going to have players who are overrated/underrated by a system or writer.

 

The "as time goes by" portion of your argument is null and void, though. The trade values site certainly didn't foresee Grisham's and Davies' strong 2020 seasons judging by their valuations of both players, especially before the trade.

 

Even if the site's justification in changing the values was to essentially "right a wrong", the optics of the timing were simply terrible. Since then, in essence, the "wrong" has been "righted" with the justified change in those players values after their 2020 performance. If you go in and do a "trade back", Davies/Grisham are now nearly double the surplus value of Urias/Lauer.

 

I think the crux of the issue is that the trade value site seems slow to update values on minor league players who "break out" in a quick fashion, such as what Grisham did, while they are also slow to lower the values on highly thought-of Top 100 guys like Urias when they don't live up to that advanced billing early on. They certainly didn't need to go in to their system the day of the trade and raise the value of the guys the Brewers traded off, though, while lowering the value of the guys the Brewers got back. At that time, those players did nothing to justify the value adjustments.

 

Player performance is only one aspect of valuation. How these players are perceived by MLB GMs in a real life trade scenario is absolutely another.

 

To further address that and Peavy's question above about why people feel the need to defend the site and their explanation, my answer would be this: what they are doing is really tough; actually, impossible, and certainly arbitrary. There will be times when valuations seem dead nuts, other times they will seem out of whack. You have hundreds if not thousands of assets whose values are constantly evolving, and you can't possibly keep them up to date daily. Think of how much the value of Devin Williams and Corbin Burnes changed just month to month this year. Obviously, it's easier to stay on top of it in the offseason but you still have other factors influencing valuation change other than just raw player performance.

 

Yes, it's not perfect. Yes, it's arbitrary. It can't be perfect. Value of a certain player varies just from one TEAM to another based on the team needs and how well that player fits with that team. There are too many intangibles to even assign a definite grade to a player based on his fit for one team, let alone a general grade that fits for all 30.

 

It's not just that way for the site. It's that way for every valuation system. That's why we have dozens of different ranking sites none of which say exactly the same thing. There's subjectivity at play anytime you're dealing with any system of player evaluation. The same goes for Pro Football Focus.

 

So when I see a website that does valuation better, sure, I'll come out and say, "the grades on baseballtradevalues.com are junk." Until then, I respect the difficulty of what they are trying to do and think it's just another valuable tool for fans rather than looking at it as the end all be all and garbage if it doesn't say exactly what I think it should.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Until then, I respect the difficulty of what they are trying to do and think it's just another valuable tool for fans rather than looking at it as the end all be all and garbage if it doesn't say exactly what I think it should.

 

That isn't my argument, though ... and I don't think it is Peavy's, either. That site's valuations are its valuations. If you want to argue those, that's fine. That is the totally subjective part, and likely an unwinable argument. I don't care that the site "didn't say exactly what I think it should" in regard to valuations because, as you said, those values are subjective. My whole issue is the fact that they retroactively, minutes after the trade was announced, went in and adjusted the values of those players who were dealt, with no justification for doing so other than to make the trade appear more even. That is a textbook example of "moving the goalposts". It's poor optics, plain and simple.

[PeaveyFury]

Until then, I respect the difficulty of what they are trying to do and think it's just another valuable tool for fans rather than looking at it as the end all be all and garbage if it doesn't say exactly what I think it should.

 

That isn't my argument, though ... and I don't think it is Peavy's, either. That site's valuations are its valuations. If you want to argue those, that's fine. That is the totally subjective part, and likely an unwinable argument. I don't care that the site "didn't say exactly what I think it should" in regard to valuations because, as you said, those values are subjective. My whole issue is the fact that they retroactively, minutes after the trade was announced, went in and adjusted the values of those players who were dealt, with no justification for doing so other than to make the trade appear more even. That is a textbook example of "moving the goalposts". It's poor optics, plain and simple.

 

Yep. Exactly my point as well.

[adambr2]

I think the justification was pretty clearly explained and it wasn't to make the trade appear more even. Retroactively isn't an accurate word, that implies changing the pre-trade valuations after the fact. The trade was the cause and the effect was the adjusted valuations.

 

Obviously we aren't going to agree on this and that's fine but I have zero problem with what they did. From my perspective NOT changing the valuations would have been the stubborn, refuse to admit we're wrong approach.

[markedman5]

https://fansided.com/2020/11/16/chicago-white-sox-tony-la-russa-admit-mistake/

[DR28]

https://fansided.com/2020/11/16/chicago-white-sox-tony-la-russa-admit-mistake/

 

As long as we dont trade Woody or Burnes, I'm fine with trading our starter surplus... Never thought I would say something like that.

 

Screw dealing Hader.... Keep Knebel, Williams, Hader and have a monster pen.

[brewerfan82]

 

I'M JUST KIDDING!

[narwhalattack]

At this point I hope that Hader is NOT traded to the Yankees, mostly out of spite. I'm getting sick of seeing Yankees fans thinking they can get Hader for a sack of potatoes.

[PeaveyFury]

At this point I hope that Hader is NOT traded to the Yankees, mostly out of spite. I'm getting sick of seeing Yankees fans thinking they can get Hader for a sack of potatoes.

 

Couldn't agree more. It's very reminiscent of the crap they all thought they could get Sheets for back in the day.

[Soupbone]

Regarding MrAllen's post. Let's say it happened. It would add $66+ million in salary this year which is almost what we are expecting for our total payroll. But Story and Gray are free agent's at the end of the year and you would then have Arenado and a couple of arb eligible guys in Freeland and McMahon. If MA decided to go for it the only long term money is 6 more years of Arenado. Wouldn't it be nice to at least think this could happen?

[Eye Black]

Speaking of the Rockies, as far as I can tell they have more top corner infield prospects than any other organization.

 

The following five corner infield prospects are considered among the Rockies top ten overall prospects...

 

1B Michael Toglia (Age 22)

 

3B Ryan Vilade (Age 21)

 

3B Aaron Schunk (Age 23)

 

1B/3B Colton Welker (Age 23)

 

1B Grant Lavigne (Age 21)

 

I am not sure if Hader makes sense for the Rockies, but I wouldn’t mind finding a way to pry one of those corner infield prospects away from them by trading a pitcher or pitching prospect.

[TURBO]

Robert Murray of Fansided reports that the Brewers "intend to listen" on reliever Josh Hader this offseason.

 

The Brewers have listened on Hader before and it only makes sense they'll continue to do so as he gets more expensive. He's due a raise from the $4.1 million he made this year in arbitration. Hader, 26, posted a 3.79 ERA with 13 saves and a 31/10 K/BB ratio over 19 innings this past season. Murray hears that the Yankees, Dodgers, Padres and Mets had interest in Hader in the past, though it's unclear what sort of market he'll have this offseason.

 

SOURCE: Fansided

Nov 16, 2020, 3:05 PM ET

[Madhawk23]

Haven't seen this posted yet: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2918412-top-landing-spots-and-trade-packages-for-brewers-rp-josh-hader-amid-rumors

 

What is everyone's thoughts on these package ideas? If we are to believe the Trade Simulator values, it would appear that very few of these trade packages are realistic.

[wibadgers23]

The Braves proposal is the only that is remotely intriguing. The rest of them were slightly depressing.

[Eye Black]

Haven't seen this posted yet: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2918412-top-landing-spots-and-trade-packages-for-brewers-rp-josh-hader-amid-rumors

 

What is everyone's thoughts on these package ideas? If we are to believe the Trade Simulator values, it would appear that very few of these trade packages are realistic.

Some of those packages seem like overpays. I have to assume if those proposed packages from the Braves or Blue Jays were on the table Hader would already be a member of one of those organizations. That being said, Groshans from the Blue Jays would certainly be an intriguing target, but he's also probably a year or two away from being major league ready.

 

I would be happy enough with that proposed return from the Dodgers. Why isn't 3B/1B Edwin Rios valued more highly, is his defense terrible? He hits the ball very hard and could be a nice addition to the Brewers lineup next season. Another player from the Dodgers that intrigues me is 3B prospect Kody Hoese (age 23). Edit: Looks like Rios' high strikeout rate is probably the biggest element weighing down his value.

 

The trade for Dominic Smith would make sense, but I think the biggest problem is the Mets can simply buy their way to a solid bullpen so Hader might not be a priority.

[Eye Black]

The Braves proposal is the only that is remotely intriguing. The rest of them were slightly depressing.

It seems likely people are going to be very disappointed when an actual Hader takes place.

[PeaveyFury]

I like the Toronto trade, but if they do make a trade with the Padres (which seems to make a lot of sense), I'd hope for a massively different group of names.

[Eye Black]

I like the Toronto trade, but if they do make a trade with the Padres (which seems to make a lot of sense), I'd hope for a massively different group of names.

Completely agree, the Padres have a lot of intriguing young players and they aren't the guys on that list.

[wntrtxn21]

Haven't seen this posted yet: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2918412-top-landing-spots-and-trade-packages-for-brewers-rp-josh-hader-amid-rumors

 

What is everyone's thoughts on these package ideas? If we are to believe the Trade Simulator values, it would appear that very few of these trade packages are realistic.

 

Thanks for the link! I love the Dodger trade. I believe it is the best by a long ways toward making the Crew competitive right now.

[Austin Tatious]

Haven't seen this posted yet: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2918412-top-landing-spots-and-trade-packages-for-brewers-rp-josh-hader-amid-rumors

 

What is everyone's thoughts on these package ideas? If we are to believe the Trade Simulator values, it would appear that very few of these trade packages are realistic.

 

Thanks for sharing. Very interesting article. There was some food for thought in there.

 

I still wonder about the Chisox and whether they’d be interested.

 

I did like Toronto’s package. It might make sense for both teams.

 

I agree with others that SD might be interested to attack the Dodgers. But I’d prefer the offer be re-jiggered from that. Regardless, I put Toronto at the top. Groshans coming back makes a lot of sense for both teams.

 

Milwaukee is very focused on up the middle athletes in the draft and Latin acquisitions. But you’d like a Groshans type profile who can grow into third. Third base is actually a tough position to find. You need a certain amount of quickness, range, arm, accuracy, hit tool, pop, etc.

 

This is going to be a fun off season. I expect some trades, maybe some eye popping ones. We can’t spend a ton in free agency so I think we will see wheeling and dealing. Beyond that, we looked old and slow last year. Let’s get some fresh juice and younger energy in the lineup.

[wallus]

I would be happy with most of those trades. I can't imagine Hader will get that much however with the environment we have now.

[brewcrewdue80]

Let's put a package together and take Jarred Kelenic from Seattle. Looks like Taylor Williams was Seattle's closer last year. Fixed that for them with Hader.

They lose T.Walker, need a SP.

That starting pitcher becomes Freddy Peralta.

 

This solves OF for Milw beyond Garcia. Cain gets replaced in future by Garret. Team saves over 6mil on payroll. Pairs a long term bat with Yelich.

 

Seattle has Kyle Lewis in CF. Sure they can move Kelenic to a corner OF but immediate team health Hader improves that bullpen by a wide margin. They also return Peralta under a cost controlled contract with modest upside.

 

Throw in 2 others from Seattle that are low level types. Austin Shenton fits a 3b get. And one of any number of pitching arms Sea has, that has the profile the club likes.

[trwi7]

Let's put a package together and take Jarred Kelenic from Seattle. Looks like Taylor Williams was Seattle's closer last year. Fixed that for them with Hader.

They lose T.Walker, need a SP.

That starting pitcher becomes Freddy Peralta.

 

This solves OF for Milw beyond Garcia. Cain gets replaced in future by Garret. Team saves over 6mil on payroll. Pairs a long term bat with Yelich.

 

Seattle has Kyle Lewis in CF. Sure they can move Kelenic to a corner OF but immediate team health Hader improves that bullpen by a wide margin. They also return Peralta under a cost controlled contract with modest upside.

 

Throw in 2 others from Seattle that are low level types. Austin Shenton fits a 3b get. And one of any number of pitching arms Sea has, that has the profile the club likes.

 

Seattle is not in any position to trade for Hader. Flat out just won't.

[brewcrewdue80]

Let's put a package together and take Jarred Kelenic from Seattle. Looks like Taylor Williams was Seattle's closer last year. Fixed that for them with Hader.

They lose T.Walker, need a SP.

That starting pitcher becomes Freddy Peralta.

 

This solves OF for Milw beyond Garcia. Cain gets replaced in future by Garret. Team saves over 6mil on payroll. Pairs a long term bat with Yelich.

 

Seattle has Kyle Lewis in CF. Sure they can move Kelenic to a corner OF but immediate team health Hader improves that bullpen by a wide margin. They also return Peralta under a cost controlled contract with modest upside.

 

Throw in 2 others from Seattle that are low level types. Austin Shenton fits a 3b get. And one of any number of pitching arms Sea has, that has the profile the club likes.

 

Seattle is not in any position to trade for Hader. Flat out just won't.

 

Great analysis. Just won't. I mentioned adding Peralta in order to get Kelenic. So what's holding them back? Just won't got it.