Hader trade ideas

[Madhawk23]

After really talking through some of the teams that might have some interest in Hader this winter, I feel like we can identify a few different tiers.

 

Top tier (teams that should be motivated to improve their pen that are also in a "win now" mode):

 

Phillies

Twins

White Sox

Angels

 

Mid-tier (teams that will be in a win-now mode over next few years, but may/may not have much of a need for Hader):

Dodgers (I would definitely move them up to top tier though if Jansen implodes this postseason and they don't win a title because of it)

Padres

Rays

Blue Jays

 

Wilcard tier (big market/spending teams that you can never truly rule out):

Yankees

Red Sox

Mets

 

How does this list look?

[Madhawk23]

Yeah, I think it's safe to say that the Angels are always a wildcard team. Seems like every year they are making a big offseason signing (or two) and it just hasn't resulted in more wins. New GM, so maybe he would want to make a splash and go get one of the top relievers in baseball to help fix their bullpen issues.

 

I guess my biggest question would be: how do they match up though? No way we are getting Jo Adell in a package back. I like Fletcher being a piece coming back, but are they really motivated to move a guy like him that has multiple years of control? And, wouldn't Fletcher slot into the 2B role that LaStella has filled in recent years? Looking at their top prospects, I'm not sure if I'm seeing much after Adell that would really pique my interest that much. But, maybe someone knows more about those guys than me?

 

Brandon Marsh is the exact type of player that David Stearns covets. Tall, powerful, left-handed hitter who is a solid defender in CF or the corners. He's a very exciting prospect. I think any potential Hader deal has to start with him.

 

Good point on Marsh. He probably would be a guy that DS would covet, and I'm sure would need to be the headliner coming back in any type of deal with the Angels. I just wasn't sure if we'd target another OF though with all of our needs right now at the corner IF and C positions?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yeah, I think it's safe to say that the Angels are always a wildcard team. Seems like every year they are making a big offseason signing (or two) and it just hasn't resulted in more wins. New GM, so maybe he would want to make a splash and go get one of the top relievers in baseball to help fix their bullpen issues.

 

I guess my biggest question would be: how do they match up though? No way we are getting Jo Adell in a package back. I like Fletcher being a piece coming back, but are they really motivated to move a guy like him that has multiple years of control? And, wouldn't Fletcher slot into the 2B role that LaStella has filled in recent years? Looking at their top prospects, I'm not sure if I'm seeing much after Adell that would really pique my interest that much. But, maybe someone knows more about those guys than me?

 

Brandon Marsh is the exact type of player that David Stearns covets. Tall, powerful, left-handed hitter who is a solid defender in CF or the corners. He's a very exciting prospect. I think any potential Hader deal has to start with him.

 

Good point on Marsh. He probably would be a guy that DS would covet, and I'm sure would need to be the headliner coming back in any type of deal with the Angels. I just wasn't sure if we'd target another OF though with all of our needs right now at the corner IF and C positions?

 

I get that. But who knows what Cain we will get back next year, and even if he is still productive, he's on the back nine. Also, I'm willing to give Garcia another shot, but he certainly didn't portray himself as a building block.

[Madhawk23]

I hear you. A lot of question marks all around the diamond moving forward, and that includes OF. But, I'm selfishly hoping that we can address some of the corner IF issues we have in our system right now in this Hader trade. I know that's not Stearn's usual philosophy, as he typically likes to accumulate up-the-middle players with more positional flexibility, but eventually we need to find some young, power bats at 1B and 3B that we can have some control over.

[Madhawk23]

clancyphile mentioned this trade idea in another thread, but since it involves Hader, I thought I'd bring it here as well:

 

Brewers get:

Jeff McNeil

JD Davis

 

Mets get:

Josh Hader

Josh Lindblom

Luis Urias

 

Curious for opinions on this trade proposal? I think Davis is expendable for the Mets, but I'm not sure they would be motivated to move McNeil? Seems like they need SP help, but Lindblom can't have much in the way of value. Urias would still provide some upside for them, but let's face it - his first two stints in the majors haven't looked great.

[wibadgers23]

I don’t like giving up on Urias so soon but I really like that Mets proposal. In addition to that trade I would go out and try and sign Semien to play SS. I could excited about a rebuilt infield that includes Davis, McNeil and Semien. Trade Arcia for a bullpen arm or some lottery tickets.

[brewcrewdue80]

clancyphile mentioned this trade idea in another thread, but since it involves Hader, I thought I'd bring it here as well:

 

Brewers get:

Jeff McNeil

JD Davis

 

Mets get:

Josh Hader

Josh Lindblom

Luis Urias

 

Curious for opinions on this trade proposal? I think Davis is expendable for the Mets, but I'm not sure they would be motivated to move McNeil? Seems like they need SP help, but Lindblom can't have much in the way of value. Urias would still provide some upside for them, but let's face it - his first two stints in the majors haven't looked great.

 

Not sure on the Mets making a deal like that. Remember they were bought by Billionaire Cohen and that may mean a new direction on how money is spent, ie like on a Trevor Bauer. The Mets have Amed Rosario for SS cheap and controlled/former top 10 prospect and that makes Urias just a 2nd Rosario backup. Robinson Cano at 2b making 24mil/yr. I don't believe so much in Urias at 3b. Just not the profile 3b and not showing a batting line that you would trust. Removing both Davis and Mcneil would put a big hole in their offense and Urias at 3b at under .700 OPS is a big loss. Mets from what I see don't have an OF to replace McNeil. Just not a match without some other moves made initially by the Mets to make this seem to work.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

clancyphile mentioned this trade idea in another thread, but since it involves Hader, I thought I'd bring it here as well:

 

Brewers get:

Jeff McNeil

JD Davis

 

Mets get:

Josh Hader

Josh Lindblom

Luis Urias

 

Curious for opinions on this trade proposal? I think Davis is expendable for the Mets, but I'm not sure they would be motivated to move McNeil? Seems like they need SP help, but Lindblom can't have much in the way of value. Urias would still provide some upside for them, but let's face it - his first two stints in the majors haven't looked great.

 

I really like McNeil! Wanted him last off-season. He would be a needle mover in my opinion. Quality at bats we didn’t see much of this year.

[brewcrewdue80]

After really talking through some of the teams that might have some interest in Hader this winter, I feel like we can identify a few different tiers.

 

Top tier (teams that should be motivated to improve their pen that are also in a "win now" mode):

 

Phillies

Twins

White Sox

Angels

 

Mid-tier (teams that will be in a win-now mode over next few years, but may/may not have much of a need for Hader):

Dodgers (I would definitely move them up to top tier though if Jansen implodes this postseason and they don't win a title because of it)

Padres

Rays

Blue Jays

 

Wilcard tier (big market/spending teams that you can never truly rule out):

Yankees

Red Sox

Mets

 

How does this list look?

 

White Sox are in no immediate need/win now. I'd have them in wildcard tier as a team you can't rule out.

Phillies are losing Realmuto who's a top bat at catcher in all of baseball. Past offseason would have made more sense on urgency. Now, I'd just also put them in the big market/spending teams.

Angels need a lot of pitching, Pujols contract ends next season, give them a hold and not tier 1.

 

Twins I do agree with at tier 1. Sergio Romo blew the game this past playoff and with an option they may just move on. White Sox Youth movement is in process and the window is definitely small. Hader has dominated the Twins so there's that positive effect to not have to face him.

 

I'd add Yankees to tier 1. They could just pay Hader for another 8years immediately buying out his Arb years and having that closer in the ilk of Mariano Rivera. They clearly want him, they don't have the ammo they want to part with to get him, or that Sterns wants. Tampa Bay is a problem for them the need and desire is there.

 

Padres or Dodgers one is tier 1 who loses the series they are in. The other is big spender territory. This is where I expect the trade to come from, as it's a beat the other team desire forthcoming.

 

I gotta go this is taking to long to respond and dinner is calling.

[Eye Black]

Dodgers (I would definitely move them up to top tier though if Jansen implodes this postseason and they don't win a title because of it)

Good start on that front as Kenley Jansen gives up two runs in the 9th inning tonight and is pulled after Grisham’s RBI single cuts the Dodgers lead to one. Unfortunately the Dodgers held on to win, but Jansen doesn’t look like a pitcher destined to be the Dodgers closer much longer. His fastball was sitting 89-90 mph tonight.

[wntrtxn21]

clancyphile mentioned this trade idea in another thread, but since it involves Hader, I thought I'd bring it here as well:

 

Brewers get:

Jeff McNeil

JD Davis

 

Mets get:

Josh Hader

Josh Lindblom

Luis Urias

 

Curious for opinions on this trade proposal? I think Davis is expendable for the Mets, but I'm not sure they would be motivated to move McNeil? Seems like they need SP help, but Lindblom can't have much in the way of value. Urias would still provide some upside for them, but let's face it - his first two stints in the majors haven't looked great.

 

The Mets wouldn't even consider the deal. Losing both McNeil and Davis would hurt their offense greatly. Hader wouldn't have enough value to offset the great loss of offense. Urias and Lindblom are nothing more than throw-ins. Urias would project as a backup at 2B-SS and Lindblom has little or no value to them.

[Eye Black]

Dodgers (I would definitely move them up to top tier though if Jansen implodes this postseason and they don't win a title because of it)

Good start on that front as Kenley Jansen gives up two runs in the 9th inning tonight and is pulled after Grisham’s RBI single cuts the Dodgers lead to one. Unfortunately the Dodgers held on to win, but Jansen doesn’t look like a pitcher destined to be the Dodgers closer much longer. His fastball was sitting 89-90 mph tonight.

After the game last night Dave Roberts promised to rethink the closer role.

 

I’ll just add that something is definitely going on with Jansen. He is throwing his sinker less reliably and his cutter velocity this season has been dropping rapidly. According to Brooks Baseball in August his cutter averaged 91.66 mph, in September it averaged 90.16 mph, and now in the playoffs it’s averaging just 89.71 mph.

 

The Dodgers have a good bullpen, but if this is the end of the road for the 33 year old Jansen as their closer they don’t really have an obviously replacement. Graterol appears very good, but he is likely best suited to a multi-inning reliever role. I don’t know if they’ll ever be willing to pay a high price for a closer, but they are definitely a team that appears in need of one this offseason.

[Madhawk23]

Dodgers (I would definitely move them up to top tier though if Jansen implodes this postseason and they don't win a title because of it)

Good start on that front as Kenley Jansen gives up two runs in the 9th inning tonight and is pulled after Grisham’s RBI single cuts the Dodgers lead to one. Unfortunately the Dodgers held on to win, but Jansen doesn’t look like a pitcher destined to be the Dodgers closer much longer. His fastball was sitting 89-90 mph tonight.

After the game last night Dave Roberts promised to rethink the closer role.

 

I’ll just add that something is definitely going on with Jansen. He is throwing his sinker less reliably and his cutter velocity this season has been dropping rapidly. According to Brooks Baseball in August his cutter averaged 91.66 mph, in September it averaged 90.16 mph, and now in the playoffs it’s averaging just 89.71 mph.

 

The Dodgers have a good bullpen, but if this is the end of the road for the 33 year old Jansen as their closer they don’t really have an obviously replacement. Graterol appears very good, but he is likely best suited to a multi-inning reliever role. I don’t know if they’ll ever be willing to pay a high price for a closer, but they are definitely a team that appears in need of one this offseason.

 

No doubt...the first piece of this puzzle is settling in place. Now, we just need Jansen to continue these struggles throughout the playoffs, and we desperately need the Dodgers to lose out on another championship. If they miss out on another ring AND have a big hole in the closer role this winter - then maybe they finally pony up with a nice package for Hader?

[Jopal78]

 

No doubt...the first piece of this puzzle is settling in place. Now, we just need Jansen to continue these struggles throughout the playoffs, and we desperately need the Dodgers to lose out on another championship. If they miss out on another ring AND have a big hole in the closer role this winter - then maybe they finally pony up with a nice package for Hader?

 

 

The Dodger organization is one of the best in the league at talent evaluation and their GM is under zero pressure from ownership. Why give up their next generation of players for Hader, when they can sign Liam Hendriks or Colome, or resign Treinen if they decide they don't have an MLB caliber closer in house? If the Brewers trade Hader it would only be if there was a monster return coming back. The Dodgers simply have no reason to pay a seller's market price for Hader.

 

Teams that may have an interest in paying a high cost in young talent for a relief ace would be teams like the White Sox, Houston Astros, or the Braves. Teams that are full of young talent, and where Hader would immediately slot into the #1 spot in the bullpen depth chart.

[TURBO]

I'm starting to think that the return for Hader is going to be underwhelming, and he stays a Brewer.

[Madhawk23]

 

No doubt...the first piece of this puzzle is settling in place. Now, we just need Jansen to continue these struggles throughout the playoffs, and we desperately need the Dodgers to lose out on another championship. If they miss out on another ring AND have a big hole in the closer role this winter - then maybe they finally pony up with a nice package for Hader?

 

 

The Dodger organization is one of the best in the league at talent evaluation and their GM is under zero pressure from ownership. Why give up their next generation of players for Hader, when they can sign Liam Hendriks or Colome, or resign Treinen if they decide they don't have an MLB caliber closer in house? If the Brewers trade Hader it would only be if there was a monster return coming back. The Dodgers simply have no reason to pay a seller's market price for Hader.

 

Teams that may have an interest in paying a high cost in young talent for a relief ace would be teams like the White Sox, Houston Astros, or the Braves. Teams that are full of young talent, and where Hader would immediately slot into the #1 spot in the bullpen depth chart.

 

I hear what you are saying, but I think it all depends on what type of value the Dodgers place on Hader. If they think he's still the top closer in baseball, then maybe they decide to pony up for him this winter. But, as I mentioned earlier - I only think they do that if they fail to win a championship again this year and their pen is a big reason why they don't. Could they just go spend the money on Hendriks or Colome? Sure. But again - it depends on how highly they value a guy like Hader.

 

Also, guys like Rios, Ruiz and someone like Gray appear to be guys that are at positions of great depth in their organization. And, are guys at position of need for us. So, that's why I remain hopeful that the Dodgers become really motivated this winter to talk to us about Josh.

[wibadgers23]

When was the last time a team traded a huge package of players for a relief pitcher? I just wonder if GM's these days are more leery than ever trading away big time prospects for relievers knowing how volatile they are? Even the elite ones like Hader. Maybe we missed our chance at a huge return.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm starting to think that the return for Hader is going to be underwhelming, and he stays a Brewer.

 

Hanging on to one of the top relief pitchers in baseball is certainly not a terrible consolation prize.

[Jopal78]

When was the last time a team traded a huge package of players for a relief pitcher? I just wonder if GM's these days are more leery than ever trading away big time prospects for relievers knowing how volatile they are? Even the elite ones like Hader. Maybe we missed our chance at a huge return.

 

Cubs sending Glyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Rashad Crawford and Adam Warren to the Yankees for Aroldis Chapman? Baseball America's 2016 list of Cubs top prospects: Torres (#1), McKinney (#7),

 

Indians sending Justus Sheffield, Clint Frazier, JP Feyereisen, and Ben Heller to Yankees for Andrew Miller? Sheffield and Frazier were consensus top 100 MLB prospects.

 

Nationals sending Jesus Lazardo, Blake Treinen and Sheldon Neuse to Oakland for Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson.

 

Big time relieves get traded all the time, its just usually during the season when a team in the hunt is looking to shore up a bullpen.

[brewers888]

I would think that losing 18 postseason games in a row would give Minnesota a sense of desperation. I just hope we take the best package of players offered even if the positions they play are not exactly what we need.

[Eye Black]

When was the last time a team traded a huge package of players for a relief pitcher? I just wonder if GM's these days are more leery than ever trading away big time prospects for relievers knowing how volatile they are? Even the elite ones like Hader. Maybe we missed our chance at a huge return.

 

Cubs sending Glyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Rashad Crawford and Adam Warren to the Yankees for Aroldis Chapman? Baseball America's 2016 list of Cubs top prospects: Torres (#1), McKinney (#7),

 

Indians sending Justus Sheffield, Clint Frazier, JP Feyereisen, and Ben Heller to Yankees for Andrew Miller? Sheffield and Frazier were consensus top 100 MLB prospects.

 

Nationals sending Jesus Lazardo, Blake Treinen and Sheldon Neuse to Oakland for Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson.

 

Big time relieves get traded all the time, its just usually during the season when a team in the hunt is looking to shore up a bullpen.

Another in-season example of relievers for a top prospect was 2018 when the Indians acquired Brad Hand and Adam Cimber from the Padres for catching prospect Francisco Mejia. At the time Mejia was ranked the #5 prospect in baseball by Keith Law, #15 by MLB Pipeline, and #24 by Baseball America.

[sveumrules]

I would think that losing 18 postseason games in a row would give Minnesota a sense of desperation. I just hope we take the best package of players offered even if the positions they play are not exactly what we need.

 

I don't think the current Twins front office will feel a sense of desperation because (A) twelve of those eighteen losses happened between 2004 & 2010 so they have essentially zero relevance to the current team & (B) they likely understand its typically foolish to act out of desperation.

[nate82]

I am not a fan of Jeff McNeil and I believe his 2019 season was just a career year and he will look more like his 2018 rookie season than he will his 2019 season. With him being 28 I wouldn't want him being one of the major pieces to a Hader trade. I would have to pass on McNeil he is just not someone I would look to be trading for in a Hader deal.

 

I think the Padres, Braves, and the Angels are the teams that will show the most interest in Hader this off season. I think the White Sox, Dodgers and the Yankees are all wild cards also. I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox were involved at some point.

 

The Padres have the best players that could be available followed by the Braves. Depending on how free agency goes Hader maybe cheaper than the free agent options or the value of trading for Hader maybe higher than what the free agents cost. This upcoming free agency could be the year of 1-year contracts due to the uncertainty of how many fans will be allowed into the ballparks if any. It is really hard to gauge what the market will be with all of these variables and unknowns.

[brewers888]

I am not a fan of Jeff McNeil and I believe his 2019 season was just a career year and he will look more like his 2018 rookie season than he will his 2019 season. With him being 28 I wouldn't want him being one of the major pieces to a Hader trade. I would have to pass on McNeil he is just not someone I would look to be trading for in a Hader deal.

 

I think the Padres, Braves, and the Angels are the teams that will show the most interest in Hader this off season. I think the White Sox, Dodgers and the Yankees are all wild cards also. I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox were involved at some point.

 

The Padres have the best players that could be available followed by the Braves. Depending on how free agency goes Hader maybe cheaper than the free agent options or the value of trading for Hader maybe higher than what the free agents cost. This upcoming free agency could be the year of 1-year contracts due to the uncertainty of how many fans will be allowed into the ballparks if any. It is really hard to gauge what the market will be with all of these variables and unknowns.

 

Totally agree about McNeil. In general I never trust guys that first make the majors at 27 or older. I would be very disappointed if he was the top guy we get in a Hader trade.

[sveumrules]

Over the last three years there are 164 players with at least 1,000 plate appearances.

 

Of those 164 players, McNeil ranks 13th in wRC+ (139), mostly on the strength of his elite bat to ball skills, .319 batting average (1st) & 12.0 K% (7th). This would be the exact kind of hitter the Brewers don't have & everyone pines for during IGTs.

 

He also saw a sizable uptick in BB% from 5.6/6.2 in 2018/19 to 9.6 in 2020. Maybe it was small sample noise, or maybe he made a deliberate adjustment to be more selective in his approach, or maybe pitchers started being more careful since he'd torched them two years running (or likely some combination of all three).

 

Publicly avaialable value estimators have McNeil (63.1 Baseball Trade Values, #39 FanGraphs top 50) notably higher than Hader (23.5 Baseball Trade Values, unranked FanGraphs top 50), so assuming those rankings are generally reflective of industry consensus it looks like a one for one McNeil/Hader swap would be that rare desperation trade...but hey, it's the Mets, so anything is possible.