Hader trade ideas

[brewmann04]

I would think David would have to be blown away to Move Josh, but again never know what might one offer.

[Eye Black]

The Hader rumors from Rosenthal might not come to fruition, but this reminds me of the offseason before the 2018 season when he was also the first to report the Brewers were interested in Lorenzo Cain nearly three weeks before he signed with the Brewers. That same offseason he was also the first to indicate the Brewers had interest in Mike Moustakas even though they had Travis Shaw on the roster, they then traded for Moose six months later before the trade deadline.

[Madhawk23]

I would think David would have to be blown away to Move Josh, but again never know what might one offer.

 

The good news here is that Stearns holds all of the bargaining chips with another team. No reason to deal him unless if you are absolutely blown away with an offer. And, you should have a large number of teams that would have a lot of interest in adding an arm like Hader to their relief staff. We are talking about a guy that can go multiple innings and dominate really good MLB hitters while he is out on the mound. Not to mention, a guy that you'd have control of for at least 3 more years.

 

I'm sure Stearns and Co. have a price in mind for Hader, and if it's not met - then there really is no reason why you would have to trade him this winter.

 

Of course, you are always gambling a bit with relief pitchers and the volatility of that position. Not to mention injuries. As much as I love Hader, I just have this gut feeling that we might be best to find a trade partner this winter before his value drops.

[brewmann04]

The old saying where their Smoke their FIRE

[JosephC]

my diehard Mets fan friend is in love with McNeil considering him an MVP caliber player. He says if we traded Hader we would have to give up other prospects to get McNeil. I laughed

 

I don't think that's the case, but people here are really under-valuing McNeil. I don't think there is any question that his perceived value suffers just like Merrifield's did a couple years back. "Well he is older and was never a Top 50 prospect so he just can't be that good." Look at the track record the last four years and it's pretty solid evidence he'll continue to be a good MLB player.

 

2019 bWAR/fWAR average:

Christian Yelich = 7.45

Jeff McNeil = 4.8

Yasmani Grandal = 3.85

Mike Moustakas = 3.0

Lorenzo Cain = 2.15

Keston Hiura = 2.1

Ryan Braun = 1.85

Eric Thames = 1.75

 

Top 30 in all of baseball in fWAR and bWAR among hitters. It's not like trading an elite reliever for a guy like Travis Shaw was three years ago...a guy with OBP problems and projected as a possible "B Division" starting third baseman. The Brewers would be trading an elite reliever for a guy who was in the top 30 among hitters in both bWAR and fWAR in 2019, a guy with five years of team control left with two of those season's near the league minimum. Obtaining Hader would not only be a unique opportunity for the Mets, obtaining McNeil could also be a unique opportunity for the Brewers.

[Madhawk23]

So, let's play the hypothetical game here:

 

If the Mets offered a package of McNeil, Davis/Smith, and let's say a David Peterson for Hader - would you pull the trigger if you were David Stearns? Also, who would you prefer between JD Davis or Dominic Smith?

 

Also, would you prefer a deal like this over a Andujar/Frazier package from the Yankees? I definitely think the Yankees would have to throw in more in a package for me to want to pull the trigger, but curious what everyone else is thinking.

[Vollbc74]

So, let's play the hypothetical game here:

 

If the Mets offered a package of McNeil, Davis/Smith, and let's say a David Peterson for Hader - would you pull the trigger if you were David Stearns? Also, who would you prefer between JD Davis or Dominic Smith?

 

Also, would you prefer a deal like this over a Andujar/Frazier package from the Yankees? I definitely think the Yankees would have to throw in more in a package for me to want to pull the trigger, but curious what everyone else is thinking.

 

McNeil and Davis 1000%

 

McNeil and Davis are your 3B/1B for the next 4 years.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So, let's play the hypothetical game here:

 

If the Mets offered a package of McNeil, Davis/Smith, and let's say a David Peterson for Hader - would you pull the trigger if you were David Stearns? Also, who would you prefer between JD Davis or Dominic Smith?

 

Also, would you prefer a deal like this over a Andujar/Frazier package from the Yankees? I definitely think the Yankees would have to throw in more in a package for me to want to pull the trigger, but curious what everyone else is thinking.

 

McNeil and Davis 1000%

 

McNeil and Davis are your 3B/1B for the next 4 years.

 

Ageed. Love the idea of McNeil and Davis coming back from the Mets. It's fun to dream on Dominic Smith, though. A lefty power that could theoretically put up 40 HRs a year playing in Miller Park. Like that deal much better than the Yankees proposal. I think Frazier is overrated, and Andujar is a complete hack in the field. Granted J.D. Davis is not a great defender either, but I'd still rather have him.

[Madhawk23]

So, let's play the hypothetical game here:

 

If the Mets offered a package of McNeil, Davis/Smith, and let's say a David Peterson for Hader - would you pull the trigger if you were David Stearns? Also, who would you prefer between JD Davis or Dominic Smith?

 

Also, would you prefer a deal like this over a Andujar/Frazier package from the Yankees? I definitely think the Yankees would have to throw in more in a package for me to want to pull the trigger, but curious what everyone else is thinking.

 

McNeil and Davis 1000%

 

McNeil and Davis are your 3B/1B for the next 4 years.

 

Ageed. Love the idea of McNeil and Davis coming back from the Mets. It's fun to dream on Dominic Smith, though. A lefty power that could theoretically put up 40 HRs a year playing in Miller Park. Like that deal much better than the Yankees proposal. I think Frazier is overrated, and Andujar is a complete hack in the field. Granted J.D. Davis is not a great defender either, but I'd still rather have him.

 

That's kind of what I was thinking as well - McNeil and Davis over McNeil and Smith. With that in mind then - do we know what McNeil's defense is like at 3B and can Davis at least be an adequate defensive player at 1B for us?

 

Also, I think it needs to be asked: do the Mets have replacements for both of these guys? Clearly they are not going to want to trade two of their premier bats for a guy like Hader if they didn't have some depth at those positions. I guess that's why I would find it very hard to believe that they'd even consider trading McNeil, since he's such a big piece of their every day lineup. Throw a guy like Davis into the deal as well, and I become even more skepticial that a deal like this would ever work out.

[brewerfan82]

I'm in on a deal that brings back a talented, young, low cost, controllable 1B/3B combo. As we've seen so far, free agency isn't going to come cheap and no matter how much you like an "available" player, there's no guarantee he's going to sign with you over one of the other 29 teams that may be suiting him. We know DS likes his post New Years deals, so the more gaps in the roster he can fill on the cheap beforehand, the more flexibility (both in payroll and player position) he'll have in grabbing the best available deals later on.

 

I'm also just generally on board with selling high on relievers for a couple reasons:

 

1.) You're paying a premium for how many plate appearances they affect throughout the year. Hader, with a huge workload, only affected about 300 PAs each of the past two seasons. Whereas any starting position player you get is going to affect about 600 PAs each year.

 

2.) Relief pitchers are notoriously volatile. Now Hader isn't a normal relief pitcher, but he's been pushed hard the past two years and I'm afraid of him falling off a cliff or getting injured.

 

All that said, obviously you're not going to just give him away, but DS is in a unique situation where he has a player that virtually any contending team would love to have. If he does pull the trigger on a deal, I trust in his ability to take full advantage of that and maximize the value coming back.

[Madhawk23]

I'm in on a deal that brings back a talented, young, low cost, controllable 1B/3B combo. As we've seen so far, free agency isn't going to come cheap and no matter how much you like an "available" player, there's no guarantee he's going to sign with you over one of the other 29 teams that may be suiting him. We know DS likes his post New Years deals, so the more gaps in the roster he can fill on the cheap beforehand, the more flexibility (both in payroll and player position) he'll have in grabbing the best available deals later on.

 

I'm also just generally on board with selling high on relievers for a couple reasons:

 

1.) You're paying a premium for how many plate appearances they affect throughout the year. Hader, with a huge workload, only affected about 300 PAs each of the past two seasons. Whereas any starting position player you get is going to affect about 600 PAs each year.

 

2.) Relief pitchers are notoriously volatile. Now Hader isn't a normal relief pitcher, but he's been pushed hard the past two years and I'm afraid of him falling off a cliff or getting injured.

 

All that said, obviously you're not going to just give him away, but DS is in a unique situation where he has a player that virtually any contending team would love to have. If he does pull the trigger on a deal, I trust in his ability to take full advantage of that and maximize the value coming back.

 

Yeah, couldn't agree with you more! As much as I love Hader and would cringe at the thought of the late innings next year without him - I also think that this might be the best time to trade him and maximize the return that you would get from him (and that return would have to be BIG for me to even consider it if I were DS). But, his workload over the past couple of seasons scares me, and I would just be a bit concerned that an injury is coming his way in 2020 which could really impact any trade value he'd have next winter. Let's hope a team like the Mets or the Dodgers make a hard push for him and give us 2-3 players that can fill some of our current holes on the MLB roster.

[MrTPlush]

The better question is why are the Mets giving away a .900 OPS bat at a premium position (5 years control) and a 1B who almost put up a .900 OPS (5 years control)

 

for

 

4 years of an expensive relief pitcher who, while elite the last few years, had a HR problem last year and could come down to earth faster than you can blink? Why are they giving away 2/8 of their offense for a relief pitcher? Why is any team trading away multiple MLB assets away for a relief pitcher?

 

Gotta be honest, that doesn't make much sense if the Mets were trying to compete. If a team is going after an elite relief pitcher I would expect prospects so they actually improve.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The better question is why are the Mets giving away a .900 OPS bat at a premium position (5 years control) and a 1B who almost put up a .900 OPS (5 years control)

 

for

 

4 years of an expensive relief pitcher who, while elite the last few years, had a HR problem last year and could come down to earth faster than you can blink? Why are they giving away 2/8 of their offense for a relief pitcher? Why is any team trading away multiple MLB assets away for a relief pitcher?

 

Gotta be honest, that doesn't make much sense if the Mets were trying to compete. If a team is going after an elite relief pitcher I would expect prospects so they actually improve.

 

That’s all well and good if the Mets actually had prospect assets to trade, but their system is arguably worse than the Brewers’. They are also in win-now mode, and have money to spend to replace whatever offensive asset they trade. There is nothing anywhere near Hader on the free agent market, though. To get him, they would need to trade players off their major league roster.

[Madhawk23]

The better question is why are the Mets giving away a .900 OPS bat at a premium position (5 years control) and a 1B who almost put up a .900 OPS (5 years control)

 

for

 

4 years of an expensive relief pitcher who, while elite the last few years, had a HR problem last year and could come down to earth faster than you can blink? Why are they giving away 2/8 of their offense for a relief pitcher? Why is any team trading away multiple MLB assets away for a relief pitcher?

 

Gotta be honest, that doesn't make much sense if the Mets were trying to compete. If a team is going after an elite relief pitcher I would expect prospects so they actually improve.

 

And that's the exact reason why I started to talk myself out of that package as a realistic trade option. If the Mets are trying to put together a competitive team for 2020 (which a trade for Hader would indicate), then why would they want to trade away two of their better offensive players. Wouldn't make much sense.

 

I think they were mentioned earlier in this thread, but how about the White Sox as a team that might line up with us for Hader? Is a Cease/Vaughn package too much to ask for Hader? Or, how about a Kopech/Vaughn package? They are clearly trying to build a competitive team down there, and Hader could be a huge piece for them. They have enough money to go out and get one of the big F/A SP's on the market to replace either Cease/Kopech in the rotation, and Vaughn appears to be road blocked at 1B for a few years by Abreu. Would they make for a good match?

[sveumrules]

Why are they giving away 2/8 of their offense for a relief pitcher? Why is any team trading away multiple MLB assets away for a relief pitcher?

 

With Alonso at first, Smith/Davis are superfluos, so they're really only trading 1/8 of their offense. Sure they can keep trying JD at 3B/LF, but he's -24 DRS in 1,100 career innings at those two spots, so probably best not to try & keep square peg round holing him.

 

Because (even without a second pitch & a HR problem last year) Hader is thee best reliever in MLB since he debuted. There are players as good or better than McNeil (or whoever else we might get back in a possible Josh deal) on the FA market, there are none as good or better than Hader.

[PeaveyFury]

Davis/McNeil would be a very interesting and tempting offer.

[Madhawk23]

Davis/McNeil would be a very interesting and tempting offer.

 

No doubt it would. And, the Crew would have their infield locked in for the next 5+ years with young studs at each position - Davis, Keston, Urias and McNeil. Braunie comes off the books after this season, and then you would think that we'd have enough $$ to make a run at locking up Yeli and then spending some of that freed up cash on pitching help.

 

I have no idea if the Mets would entertain parting with both of those guys, but as we've already noted - it would have to take a lot to get Hader. And, with the Brewers in a compete now mode as well, we aren't going to be willing to just accept prospects. Need guys with at least a bit of a track record at the MLB level that can also fill holes of our own. This type of deal would certainly do that.

[KeithStone53151]

Terrible idea to trade him. we should be adding pitching not trading it away

 

It's certainly possible the Brewers think Hader is going to regress significantly in short order. That's how it tends to go with relief pitchers. If Hader doesn't adjust his arsenal and add more offspeed, that is very very likely to happen. Too many guys have seen his fastball at this point, and are far more prepared to handle it than when he first came into the league.

[brewerfan82]

Terrible idea to trade him. we should be adding pitching not trading it away

 

It's certainly possible the Brewers think Hader is going to regress significantly in short order. That's how it tends to go with relief pitchers. If Hader doesn't adjust his arsenal and add more offspeed, that is very very likely to happen. Too many guys have seen his fastball at this point, and are far more prepared to handle it than when he first came into the league.

I'd also argue that trading Hader may be the best way *to* add pitching. If we have to spend $15-30M in free agency to shore up our corner infielders, that's money that can't be spent on the pitching front. However, if we can lock up 1B/3B with a Hader trade, that frees up money to go after a couple high-end, non-Cole/Strasburg-type starters along with some relief help to offset the Hader loss. I think Hader's a luxury a team that is already built to compete for a World Series can overpay for, but we have far too many holes to fill before we should worry about having a lockdown pitcher that's going to max out at 70 IP in a 1400+ inning season.

[Madhawk23]

Switching gears a bit back to the Dodgers. There are still reports out there that they are hot after Rendon. If that's the case, could it be possible that they would be willing to trade Seager? How about a Seager/May package for Hader? If not Seager, how about a Turner/May/Ruiz package - that would allow them to shed some $$ in order to then sign Rendon? We'd have Turner on the books for 2020, but then that 20M would come off along with Braun after next season.

[Luke99]

I would be after the Rays and see what they would offer up

 

Hader for Nate Lowe, Chaz Roe (offset some salary for TB), Daniel Robertson (new better Perez with OBP skills), Tyler Frank, and Brent Honeywell (total wildcard)

 

TB is still pretty set at 1B, Brewers get a stud 1B for the long haul, Roberston is pretty superflous to them and can backup 2nd, SS, and 3rd for us. Frank was hurt last year but is a prospect I love, Roe is useful in our bullpen and Honeywell is a huge wildcard.

 

Maybe it's light for Hader on certainty and Lowe doesn't exactly play a premium position but it fills holes with upside all over the place

[Warning Track Power]

Switching gears a bit back to the Dodgers. There are still reports out there that they are hot after Rendon. If that's the case, could it be possible that they would be willing to trade Seager? How about a Seager/May package for Hader? If not Seager, how about a Turner/May/Ruiz package - that would allow them to shed some $$ in order to then sign Rendon? We'd have Turner on the books for 2020, but then that 20M would come off along with Braun after next season.

Page 4 of the thread I proposed Seager at 3B as a target for Hader. Seager is only under contract for another two years but if the package included May as well, I think this would make sense.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I think it would be very short sighted to trade Hader with the thoughts of trying to fill the current holes in our lineup with multiple lesser talents.

 

If you trade Josh Hader, a MLB ready, proven young stud would have to be a headliner, IMO. (Jeff McNeil will be 28 years old at the start of next season, BTW. Check out his underwhelming minor league career stats. Dude only hit 28 Hr in over 1600 minor league abs)

 

Otherwise, Brewers are better off keeping Hader and filling those holes via free agency, etc.

 

Unless blown away with an offer, I expect Josh Hader to be a Brewer to begin 2020.

 

If the Brewers indeed floated the notion that Hader is available, my guess is that they wanted to gauge the market on him.

 

That way, if they are OUT OF CONTENTION come his July or next, they can circle back to the GM's that expressed interest and already have an idea on what they'd be willing to give up via trade. It would even be smart to have Brewers scouting department scout some of the prospects being proposed in deals for Josh between now and July.

[sveumrules]

(Jeff McNeil will be 28 years old at the start of next season, BTW. Check out his underwhelming minor league career stats. Dude only hit 28 Hr in over 1600 minor league abs)

 

McNeil batted 311/380/442 (~135 wRC+) with an 11.2 K% in his minor league career.

 

In the majors he has batted 321/383/513 (141 wRC+) with a 12.1 K%.

 

He has always been a high average, low strikeout hitter. Power is often the last tool to develop, especially for players matching his profile.

[MNBrew]

Not every player who's a good player hits loads of HRs. Too often the Brewers are hurt by their HR-or-nothing offensive tendencies. I think having more guys who can just plain HIT is really important.