Hader trade ideas

[RollieTime]

The most comparable trade for a player like Hader is probably Andrew Miller. I think it's a smart thing to revisit the trade as we try and ascertain the value of Hader on the trade market.

 

Miller was one of the most dominating relievers in baseball when he was traded by the Yankees to the Indians in July of 2016. He had 2 1/3 seasons remaining on his deal, which paid him $9M annually. He was 31 years old at the time.

 

Miller had produced seasons of 2.2 and 2.0 fWAR (bWAR was 1.9 and 2.4) in 2014-15. At the time of his trade, he was having his finest season (1.39 ERA, 77K in 44.1 IP). He would go on to produce 2.9 fWAR/3.7 bWAR.

 

Hader has produced 2.6 and 2.3 fWAR in 2018-19 (2.1 and 2.6 bWAR). So those are comparable numbers.

 

In the end, both were awesome in this time frame. In 2015, Miller was voted the AL's top reliever while in 2019, Hader was the NL's top reliever. Hader worked more innings, but is younger, and has less wear and tear on his arm. In the end, I don't think it is a huge difference.

 

You can argue that the two men were in very similar situations (career-wise).

 

So, while the two are comparable, what is different between the two players?

 

1. Hader has 4 full years of control, compared to 2.5 for Miller. And extra one and a half years is major. This is probably the biggest difference between the two players, and if comparing in a vacuum, makes Hader a more attractive player.

 

However, the players exist in the real world - and I think that does matter. See next points.

 

2. Miller was in the midst of an absolutely brilliant 2016 season. He would strikeout 123 batters in 74.1 innings and have an ERA of 1.45 that year. 3. Miller was dealt at the trade deadline.

 

These two factors were huge in determining the return for Miller. You had one of the best (perhaps the best) relievers in baseball - having an incredible year (even for him) - available at the trade deadline, and teams were desperate to add him. These made for a sense of urgency that forced teams to act if they wanted him.

 

The Return

 

Miller netted prospects Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield in the deal (as well as two other lower level relievers - J.P. Feyereisen and Ben Heller). We will focus on the two main pieces of the deal - Frazier and Sheffield.

 

Frazier - coming in to 2016, Frazier was ranked #44 by Baseball America, #27 by MLB Pipeline, and #53 by Baseball Prospectus. He was only 21 years old. He had reached AA, and was having a good season (.825 OPS), but not a dominating one. The fifth overall pick in the draft in 2013, scouts had always loved Frazier's skillset, although he had never really had a huge minor league season at this point (or since). Of course, he had always been very young compared to his peers.

 

Sheffield - coming into 2016, the left handed throwing Sheffield was ranked #81 by Baseball America, but not in the Top 100 by MLB Pipeline or Baseball Prospectus. The 31st overall pick in the 2014 draft, Sheffield had reached A+ ball that year, and was having a good season (3.59 ERA, 93K in 95 IP). While not on some prospects lists, he was a rising name, only 20 years old, and would reach the upper tiers of Top 100 lists by the off season.

 

So, looking at the deal, we can probably say that the Yankees got a Top 30-50 level prospect in Frazier, and an upper tier (80-90) level prospect in Sheffield.

 

At the time, the return of Frazier and Sheffield was considered very good for the Yankees.

 

The return for Hader

 

With that all said, if we use this trade as a guide, what could we expect for Hader? You can argue we should get more since it's 4 years versus 2.5. And that's probably true. However, we also need to take in account the timing of the deal. Right now, one of the things that many teams don't have is a sense of urgency. It's the offseason. Having Josh Hader doesn't make or break a season for a team at this time. In the end, the 1.5 extra years of Hader does matter - but maybe not massively.

 

I think the urgency you find at the trade deadline dampens Hader's return (as compared to Miller's), but not a lot. The extra 1.5 years certainly makes up for that - and probably more. But we can't just say we should get a 40% better return because a team will get Hader for 40% more.

 

In the end, I think that if we dealt Hader, we would expect a return a little better than what Miller fetched. Again, that means a Top 30-50 player, and another guy at the back end of the Top 100. How much better is certainly debatable - but I don't think it's massive. Figuring this out is a bit dicey as many of the prospect lists we have are almost a year old - so we are running off of old lists.

 

I don't think it's out of the question that we could land a top 20 or even top 10 player in a trade, but clubs don't let such guys go very often. Just using prospect rankings as a guide, I could easily see something like players #25 and #60 or something like that. It's very inexact - but I think you get the idea.

 

One way to improve Hader's return - hold on to him and deal him at the deadline if we are out of the race. Of course, there is a risk as Hader might get hurt or his performance may regress. But getting teams desperate for a huge bullpen arm in the heat of the pennant race is probably the best way to maximize Hader's return.

 

Hope this has been interesting for some of you.

 

Love this, thanks!

 

I mentioned this before, but after you laid this out, I want to bring the proposal forward again. It also might depend on if the Twins can get Donaldson.

 

Twins Receive;

LHP Josh Hader

 

Brewers Receive:

3B Miguel Sano

RHP Brusdar Graterol (MLB #53)

RHP Jordan Balazovic (MLB #76)

OF Trevor Larnach (MLB #77)

 

Both Larnach and Balazovic could make their way into the top 50 by midseason 2020 by continuing to produce. Graterol can help in the bullpen now, Sano gets the everyday 3B gig (with 2 year of control), Balazovic continues his work in the minors and could open the year in AA, and Larnach could have a real shot at knocking on the door of the majors by the end of 2020. He would be the guy with a real chance to be Braun’s replacement and open the 2021 season with him as one of our starting outfielders.

 

I feel like this is a trade that both teams would explore doing. The Twins get to keep their top couple guys, but get the rest of their promising prospects raided. We don’t get a top 10-25 prospect like you might expect in a trade like this, but getting that 3rd guy in the 50-80 range might be enough to offset it instead of getting one in the top 15 and one in the 50-60 range.

 

The Brewers get their 3B for the next couple seasons, a guy that can slot into the bullpen to replace Hader (or possibly go into the rotation?) that has 6 years of control, and 2 very promising prospects that are both on the rise. The Brewers will probably ask for a little more than this, but I could see them settling on something like this in the end.

 

I would be pleased with this return and very excited for the future with how much true young impact talent we would have both on the MLB roster (Hiura, Urias, Woodruff, Lauer, and Narvaez) as well as the upper minors (Graterol, Brusdar, Larnach, and possibly Lutz if he opens in AA).

 

A trade like this could really put us in a position to field a competitive team for the next 6+ years just with this group alone. That doesn’t even include who else we will draft in that time or have come through the minors to make a lengthy impact on the MLB club.

[brewcrewdue80]

I mentioned this before, but after you laid this out, I want to bring the proposal forward again. It also might depend on if the Twins can get Donaldson.

 

Twins Receive;

LHP Josh Hader

 

Brewers Receive:

3B Miguel Sano

RHP Brusdar Graterol (MLB #53)

RHP Jordan Balazovic (MLB #76)

OF Trevor Larnach (MLB #77)

 

Both Larnach and Balazovic could make their way into the top 50 by midseason 2020 by continuing to produce. Graterol can help in the bullpen now, Sano gets the everyday 3B gig (with 2 year of control), Balazovic continues his work in the minors and could open the year in AA, and Larnach could have a real shot at knocking on the door of the majors by the end of 2020. He would be the guy with a real chance to be Braun’s replacement and open the 2021 season with him as one of our starting outfielders.

 

I feel like this is a trade that both teams would explore doing. The Twins get to keep their top couple guys, but get the rest of their promising prospects raided. We don’t get a top 10-25 prospect like you might expect in a trade like this, but getting that 3rd guy in the 50-80 range might be enough to offset it instead of getting one in the top 15 and one in the 50-60 range.

 

The Brewers get their 3B for the next couple seasons, a guy that can slot into the bullpen to replace Hader (or possibly go into the rotation?) that has 6 years of control, and 2 very promising prospects that are both on the rise. The Brewers will probably ask for a little more than this, but I could see them settling on something like this in the end.

 

I would be pleased with this return and very excited for the future with how much true young impact talent we would have both on the MLB roster (Hiura, Urias, Woodruff, Lauer, and Narvaez) as well as the upper minors (Graterol, Brusdar, Larnach, and possibly Lutz if he opens in AA).

 

A trade like this could really put us in a position to field a competitive team for the next 6+ years just with this group alone. That doesn’t even include who else we will draft in that time or have come through the minors to make a lengthy impact on the MLB club."

 

Is Kirilloff off the tables for trade? Royce Lewis? Because the 2 pitchers we're taking back are limited in IP. Graterol especially. He's basically set up for only RP. Balazovic has the upside for a SP but another 2years away. Larnoch Seems good for a get, but Lewis and Kirilloff seem better to get when considering bats.

 

Sano hasn't played over 116games in a ML season with 2years remaining of control. Coming off his best valued year that's a buy high that I think if we could get Kirilloff or Lewis, then we need to take a pass on.

 

I'd really think that a deal with Minnesota would have to include Kirilloff. He sounds like a 1b bat that will be effective all 6years of team control. The hit tool to match up with Hiura and Yelich if he joins the team in 2020 would be welcome. And then maybe Larnoch would fill out your two headliners at top 20 and top 80 prospect return. Take on #12 Twins prospect Blayne Enlow who's up to 111 IP a year at A ball and call it a day. I know I've said I prefer Pitchers that help the team right away, but looking at the Twins, they fill a trade out better with Kirilloff and Larnach position bats and that pitcher being the throw in piece.

 

I'm really opposed to using Sano as the headliner in a Hader trade. He's a career 36.3% K rate that isn't improving. 36.2 in fact for 2019. That's gotta limit him to a .245 kind of BA. Plus he's more expensive than Hader for 2020 and most likely 2021 before losing him to FA after 2021. You're not going to QO him without a drastic improvement on his K tendencies.

 

Kirilloff as the start or we aren't talking anymore with the Twins.

[Vollbc74]

Any interest in Braves 3B Austin Riley? If Atlanta signs Donaldson, maybe the Brewers and Braves could work something out involving Riley and some of their pitching prospects.

 

Hader for Austin Riley, Kyle Muller/Bryse Wilson, and Patrick Weigel would interest me.

 

Riley locks down the 3B for the next 6 years.

 

Muller and Wilson are both mid-rotation profile pitchers that can add to our depth this year between AAA/MLB and could take a rotation spot in 2021.

 

Weigel is a wild card who's stuff has played up well as a RP in the minors and could impact our BP as soon as this year. Can touch upper 90's with both a slider and changeup. Brewers also drafted him in 2014.

[MadThinker88]

Better than most anything else in this thread.

 

Hader is also at about 4.6 mil estimated this year. He won't likely hit the 9 million dollar price tag Miller had in 2016 until arby 3 or 4.

 

Hader definitely hits it in yr 3 of Arb barring massive injury/ ineffectiveness.

Heck Cody Allen had an Arb 3 number of $10.575 in 2018 (after prior arb years of $4.15 & $7.35).

 

Another super/ Cy Young caliber yr in 2020 by Hader & getting real close to $9M in Arb 2 is not out of the question...

[A Swing and A Drive]

Any interest in Braves 3B Austin Riley? If Atlanta signs Donaldson, maybe the Brewers and Braves could work something out involving Riley and some of their pitching prospects.

 

Hader for Austin Riley, Kyle Muller/Bryse Wilson, and Patrick Weigel would interest me.

 

Riley locks down the 3B for the next 6 years.

 

Muller and Wilson are both mid-rotation profile pitchers that can add to our depth this year between AAA/MLB and could take a rotation spot in 2021.

 

Weigel is a wild card who's stuff has played up well as a RP in the minors and could impact our BP as soon as this year. Can touch upper 90's with both a slider and changeup. Brewers also drafted him in 2014.

 

Interesting proposal and possible a realistic return for Hader.

 

Here's what I'd prefer as a return for Hader from the Braves

 

-3B Austin Riley

-RHP Kyle Wright (I prefer him over Bryce Wilson)

-LHP Kyle Muller

-RP Weigel or perferably Touki Touissant

 

I have a funny feeling Touissant could be redefined as a dominant back of the bullpen arm as his career moves forward.

 

If the Braves sign Donaldson, this proposal makes a ton of sense for them, as Riley and Wright are MLB ready and ATL wouldn't really have starting spots for them.

[Madhawk23]

Any interest in Braves 3B Austin Riley? If Atlanta signs Donaldson, maybe the Brewers and Braves could work something out involving Riley and some of their pitching prospects.

 

Hader for Austin Riley, Kyle Muller/Bryse Wilson, and Patrick Weigel would interest me.

 

Riley locks down the 3B for the next 6 years.

 

Muller and Wilson are both mid-rotation profile pitchers that can add to our depth this year between AAA/MLB and could take a rotation spot in 2021.

 

Weigel is a wild card who's stuff has played up well as a RP in the minors and could impact our BP as soon as this year. Can touch upper 90's with both a slider and changeup. Brewers also drafted him in 2014.

 

Interesting proposal and possible a realistic return for Hader.

 

Here's what I'd prefer as a return for Hader from the Braves

 

-3B Austin Riley

-RHP Kyle Wright (I prefer him over Bryce Wilson)

-LHP Kyle Muller

-RP Weigel or perferably Touki Touissant

 

I have a funny feeling Touissant could be redefined as a dominant back of the bullpen arm as his career moves forward.

 

If the Braves sign Donaldson, this proposal makes a ton of sense for them, as Riley and Wright are MLB ready and ATL wouldn't really have starting spots for them.

 

A couple of questions on this proposal:

 

Are the Braves still even in the market for another RP? I know they signed Will Smith early in the winter, and I want to say they nabbed another reliever off the market around that same time. While I would love to get some of their prospects for Hader, I'm curious if that's even a need for them?

 

How is Austin Riley's defense considered at 3B? I don't quite understand all of the defensive metrics in baseball, so curious if someone else can fill me in.

 

I too would be all over a trade like this, but I think the fact that I like it so much - probably means that the Braves would never give up this much for a reliever (even one as good as Josh).

[trwi7]

Y’all should check out Paul Juliano’s Twitter. @pjuliano1689

 

With this type of coherence, how could I not trust everything he has to say?

 

If the Brewers do come down which they must and have too if they wanna get the best Haul, your looking at Andujar, Loaisiaga, and either Schmidt or Abreu. FOR Hader and lower level INF prospect. GIL King, Medina off limits. BUT I wont lie idk the standing on Garcia. Wow...

[MrTPlush]

But Hader's value, at this point IS THE MOON.

 

 

Seems a bit steep to be honest, but this isn't from our beloved trade value site:

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/03/10/whats-the-moon-worth.aspx

[MrTPlush]

Y’all should check out Paul Juliano’s Twitter. @pjuliano1689

 

With this type of coherence, how could I not trust everything he has to say?

 

If the Brewers do come down which they must and have too if they wanna get the best Haul, your looking at Andujar, Loaisiaga, and either Schmidt or Abreu. FOR Hader and lower level INF prospect. GIL King, Medina off limits. BUT I wont lie idk the standing on Garcia. Wow...

 

I prefer my rumors from someone with at least a 3rd grade writing ability too. That is impressively bad and I actually am struggling to understand what exactly he is saying.

[stalton]

Y’all should check out Paul Juliano’s Twitter. @pjuliano1689

 

With this type of coherence, how could I not trust everything he has to say?

 

If the Brewers do come down which they must and have too if they wanna get the best Haul, your looking at Andujar, Loaisiaga, and either Schmidt or Abreu. FOR Hader and lower level INF prospect. GIL King, Medina off limits. BUT I wont lie idk the standing on Garcia. Wow...

 

I prefer my rumors from someone with at least a 3rd grade writing ability too. That is impressively bad and I actually am struggling to understand what exactly he is saying.

 

Just basing this on this one tweet, it sounds like he is in high school, maybe.

[trwi7]

I love how the Brewers must come down from their asking price to get the best haul. I mean that's A grade word salad.

[Matty V]

If the Brewers do come down which they must and have too if they wanna get the best Haul, your looking at Andujar, Loaisiaga, and either Schmidt or Abreu. FOR Hader and lower level INF prospect. GIL King, Medina off limits. BUT I wont lie idk the standing on Garcia. Wow...

 

Mr. Juliano, what you've just written is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever read. At no point in your rambling, incoherent tweet were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on the internet is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

[Mudville9]

If the Brewers do come down which they must and have too if they wanna get the best Haul, your looking at Andujar, Loaisiaga, and either Schmidt or Abreu. FOR Hader and lower level INF prospect. GIL King, Medina off limits. BUT I wont lie idk the standing on Garcia. Wow...

 

Mr. Juliano, what you've just written is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever read. At no point in your rambling, incoherent tweet were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on the internet is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

 

 

+1

[TJseven7]

If the Brewers do come down which they must and have too if they wanna get the best Haul, your looking at Andujar, Loaisiaga, and either Schmidt or Abreu. FOR Hader and lower level INF prospect. GIL King, Medina off limits. BUT I wont lie idk the standing on Garcia. Wow...

 

Mr. Juliano, what you've just written is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever read. At no point in your rambling, incoherent tweet were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on the internet is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

 

Fantastic.

 

Side note, If I am reading this properly...

If the Brewers do come down (drop asking price?)

Which they (must) have to do (if they want a trade to get done?)

You are looking at an offer of x y z

For Hader and a lottery ticket bat

 

How does dropping your price get you the best haul on a commodity, when that commodity is limited?

 

Sure sounds like a Yankee homer who thinks everything in the Yankees system is all anyone should strive to get. Very "my stuffs gold and everyone else's stuff is crap" type logic.

 

Easy answer to that. Yeah, you keep your "gold." We got the best haul. We still got Hader.

 

Tell the Yankee's honk that MKE was closer to the WS in the last 2 years than the Yankees were. We have zero need to trade Hader unless we get the moon.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Y’all should check out Paul Juliano’s Twitter. @pjuliano1689

 

Wow, this guy is a tool. I went after him this morning after he went on another supposed "insider's" page and ripped them for their Hader prediction not coming true. Went back and forth with him a bit, then got this PM:

 

Paul Juliano

@pjuliano1689

17 circle rd tuckahoe ny 10707 u are a sad story for a man and i pity u.. either we can settle thisn2 ways I'll help link u to a dr. Or come over and talk to my face I ain't the one hiding... but we all know ud never do that so just stop man

 

I mean, the guy is literally making stuff up, and calling himself a "source". Then gets defensive when called out for being wrong and a hypocrite.

[wallus]

Some people take Twitter WAAAAY too seriously...

[A Swing and A Drive]

Now that we all have Paul's address, maybe we should all send him a xmas card? lol

[TJseven7]

17 circle rd tuckahoe ny 10707

I mean, the guy is literally making stuff up, and calling himself a "source". Then gets defensive when called out for being wrong and a hypocrite.

 

Yankee's honk, check.

No one who types in broken text is a source. No matter if its private or not. A genuine source has to be a writer and a writer never stoops to that type of texting jargon.

 

Let alone the "cash me outside" fighting words. This is a tool, a child and a fraud.

[brewtank34]

My apologies for linking this guy to the forum.

[82brewcrew82]

Third base is the lynch pin. I still think there is a decent chance Hader gets traded this off season if they do not come up with a different way to fix third base.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Third base is the lynch pin. I still think there is a decent chance Hader gets traded this off season if they do not come up with a different way to fix third base.

 

Would love McNeil from the Mets!

[A Swing and A Drive]

Why use the best reliever in baseball with 4 years of team control just to fill a single position player "hole" during the offseason?

 

Plenty of viable options to address 3B without trading Josh Hader IMO.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Third base is the lynch pin. I still think there is a decent chance Hader gets traded this off season if they do not come up with a different way to fix third base.

 

I don't know if a potential Hader trade is necessarily contingent on getting a 3B back in the deal. Sure it would be nice, but I'd prefer they take the offer with the most value/upside, regardless of position. Also, I imagine that the teams that are going to be most interested in Hader are playoff squads, and how many of them are going to have Major League or near-Major League-ready 3B pieces that they are willing to deal? Perhaps this would be a case where you get a third team involved in the deal?

[mlloyd10]

Well, according to the trade value website, we overpay if we trade Hader and get Arenado back

 

Was trying to think of a three team trade

 

Brewers get: Arenado

Yankees get: Hader

Rockies get: Andujar / Garcia / Florial

[MrTPlush]

Can't imagine why the Brewers would have any interest in Arenado. We would have to essentially pay free agent money for him (which we likely can't afford) and he isn't even a career .800 OPS away from Coors. I am sure he would still be great away from Coors and into Miller Park, but $35mil worthy? Paying him in his mid 30s? Giving up Hader worthy?