Hader trade ideas

[wntrtxn21]

Trade Idea

 

Twins Receive:

LHP Josh Hader

 

Brewers Receive:

3B Miguel Sano (2 years of control)

OF/1B Alex Kirilloff (MLB #15 prospect)

RHP Brusdar Graterol (MLB #53 prospect) OR

RHP Jordan Balazovic (MLB #76 prospect)

OF Trevor Larnach

 

For the Twins, they clear Sano’s ~$6 million to help their pursuit of Donaldson and open up 3B for him to slot right in. They also get Hader for 4 years to solidify the back of their bullpen.

 

For the Brewers, Sano is a big bat to add to our lineup that will fill our 3B hole that we also control for the 2021 season. Kirilloff is the big ticket prospect that showed well in AA in 2019. One of Graterol or Balazovic is included depending on Stearns’ preference (I prefer Balazovic as he seems to have TOR potential and could start in AA this season). If Balazovic has another good first half in 2019, I could see him being a top 40 prospect or higher depending on how dominant he is. Larnach is a nice 4th piece that has a high ceiling and was the Twins’ first round pick in 2018.

 

If the Twins offered this deal I'd jump at it instantly.

[RollieTime]

I really like your Twins proposal and I think the Brewers and Twins match up pretty well when it comes to team needs, especially if the Twins end up getting Donaldson. I would even be willing to substitute Luis Arraez with Sano if the Twins didn’t want to give up Sano.

 

Totally agree. I feel like since they have Cruz at DH already, that if they sign Donaldson, Sano will be on the trade market. The Twins are going to look to continue improving during this competitive window and adding Hader to the back of their bullpen would be huge for them in shortening games, especially come playoff time.

 

I would take Arraez over Sano if they wanted to go that route. I just don’t see them doing that since he has at least 5 years of control left compared to Sano’s 2.

 

Even if the Brewers hold onto Hader, I could see them laying the foundation to a trade now with the Twins and revisiting a trade come midseason.

[reillymcshane]

I really like your Twins proposal and I think the Brewers and Twins match up pretty well when it comes to team needs, especially if the Twins end up getting Donaldson. I would even be willing to substitute Luis Arraez with Sano if the Twins didn’t want to give up Sano.

 

Totally agree. I feel like since they have Cruz at DH already, that if they sign Donaldson, Sano will be on the trade market. The Twins are going to look to continue improving during this competitive window and adding Hader to the back of their bullpen would be huge for them in shortening games, especially come playoff time.

 

I would take Arraez over Sano if they wanted to go that route. I just don’t see them doing that since he has at least 5 years of control left compared to Sano’s 2.

 

Even if the Brewers hold onto Hader, I could see them laying the foundation to a trade now with the Twins and revisiting a trade come midseason.

I think the Brewers and Twins match up nicely as well -- however I think the original proposal - 3B Miguel Sano (2 years of control), OF/1B Alex Kirilloff (MLB #15 prospect), RHP Brusdar Graterol (MLB #53 prospect) OR RHP Jordan Balazovic (MLB #76 prospect), and OF Trevor Larnach is really heavily in our favor. I think it's overvaluing Hader.

 

I realize we can overvalue Hader as we hold the cards in any such deal. But Kirilloff is a top 20 player. Graterol, Balazovic and Larnach are all top 100 players. To get three of those guys - plus more - is a lot. And I doubt the Twins give up so much considering they will need cheap players in the coming years.

 

No matter, it doesn't mean something couldn't be worked out.

 

I think something like Arraez, Larnach and one of Graterol or Balazovic would be fair. Arraez goes into our IF rotation, while Larnarch is a good looking OF bat, and Graterol or Balazovic would be a nice upside arm for the system. We get a player for now (Arraez) and a couple of guys for near future.

 

Perhaps we can get more, and the club should certainly try.

[EverestBrew]

Hey all! Long time lurker, first time poster. I've been reading the forum for years and finally decided to join the fun. I've enjoyed reading the Hader proposals and I haven't been this invested in looking at the Brewers unloading a valuable asset since the Lucroy rumors. In my opinion this is a great time to trade Hader with all of the reasons that have been mentioned throughout the conversation (4 years of control, reasonable contract compared to what players are getting on the open market, minimizing risk with heavy usage the last couple of years.) I also agree with those that have said coming to a deal with a team will be difficult. For fun I've been throwing some offers on the trade value simulator which I think can be at least valuable in started to build a reasonable offer. If I were GM I would be looking at pure value coming back rather than plugging holes on the current roster. I would definitely need some sort of pitching to come back unless we are able to get a huge impact bat like a Lux, Luis Robert, Gleyber Torres which I believe is very unlikely. Below are a few of the offers I've been throwing into the simulator.

 

Offer 1:

Diamondbacks receive:

Josh Hader--48.30

 

Brewers receive:

Seth Beer 1st base (96 overall prospect in AA)-want for potential long term 1st base with power and amazing marketing possibilities--7.5

Daulton Varsho C (100 overall prospect in AA)-catcher of future originally from Marshfield, WI and played at UW-Milwaukee--27.4

Jon Duplantier SP (previous top 100 but struggled in AAA and MLB last year)-5 years of control--3.5

Kevin Ginkel RP (amazing minor league stats and debuted last year with great results)--9.0

Total--47.40

 

I think the Diamondbacks are looking to make a splash and compete especially after the Bumgarner signing. I think the Brewers should be getting some extra surplus value back over the 48.30 from Hader since they are giving up the best player in the deal, but more than 4 players is not realistic and the trade machine is definitely an inexact science. I think Varsho will jump up quite a bit in the top 100 as well after huge stats last season. I believe the new Pipeline top 100 comes out at the end of January.

 

Offer 2:

White Sox receive:

Josh Hader--48.3

 

Brewers receive:

Andrew Vaughn 1B (3rd overall pick last year and number 21 overall in top 100)-potential future 1st baseman with 60 grade hit and power--52

Jonathan Stiever SP (White Sox 6th ranked in their top 30)--4.5

Jace Fry RP (4 years control left, lefty reliever)--8.1

Total--64.60

 

I don't like this one as much as the Diamondbacks offer with less pitching potential coming back and only 3 players but love the prospect of getting Vaughn.

 

I will wrap up this rambling first post as the Rose Bowl is about to start but I'm excited to a part of the conversation now!

[wntrtxn21]

Hey all! Long time lurker, first time poster. I've been reading the forum for years and finally decided to join the fun. I've enjoyed reading the Hader proposals and I haven't been this invested in looking at the Brewers unloading a valuable asset since the Lucroy rumors. In my opinion this is a great time to trade Hader with all of the reasons that have been mentioned throughout the conversation (4 years of control, reasonable contract compared to what players are getting on the open market, minimizing risk with heavy usage the last couple of years.) I also agree with those that have said coming to a deal with a team will be difficult. For fun I've been throwing some offers on the trade value simulator which I think can be at least valuable in started to build a reasonable offer. If I were GM I would be looking at pure value coming back rather than plugging holes on the current roster. I would definitely need some sort of pitching to come back unless we are able to get a huge impact bat like a Lux, Luis Robert, Gleyber Torres which I believe is very unlikely. Below are a few of the offers I've been throwing into the simulator.

 

Offer 1:

Diamondbacks receive:

Josh Hader--48.30

 

Brewers receive:

Seth Beer 1st base (96 overall prospect in AA)-want for potential long term 1st base with power and amazing marketing possibilities--7.5

Daulton Varsho C (100 overall prospect in AA)-catcher of future originally from Marshfield, WI and played at UW-Milwaukee--27.4

Jon Duplantier SP (previous top 100 but struggled in AAA and MLB last year)-5 years of control--3.5

Kevin Ginkel RP (amazing minor league stats and debuted last year with great results)--9.0

Total--47.40

 

I think the Diamondbacks are looking to make a splash and compete especially after the Bumgarner signing. I think the Brewers should be getting some extra surplus value back over the 48.30 from Hader since they are giving up the best player in the deal, but more than 4 players is not realistic and the trade machine is definitely an inexact science. I think Varsho will jump up quite a bit in the top 100 as well after huge stats last season. I believe the new Pipeline top 100 comes out at the end of January.

 

Offer 2:

White Sox receive:

Josh Hader--48.3

 

Brewers receive:

Andrew Vaughn 1B (3rd overall pick last year and number 21 overall in top 100)-potential future 1st baseman with 60 grade hit and power--52

Jonathan Stiever SP (White Sox 6th ranked in their top 30)--4.5

Jace Fry RP (4 years control left, lefty reliever)--8.1

Total--64.60

 

I don't like this one as much as the Diamondbacks offer with less pitching potential coming back and only 3 players but love the prospect of getting Vaughn.

 

I will wrap up this rambling first post as the Rose Bowl is about to start but I'm excited to a part of the conversation now!

 

W/White Sox: Fry is a walk machine (46 BBs/3 HBP in only 55 IPs) 1.58 WHIP - 4.90 FIP. Scary stats for Miller Park. Stiever looked good, but still in A ball. Vaughn still in A ball. Zero immediate help to the Crew and you decimated the pen w/o Hader.

D'Backs: Duplantier bombed so bad at AAA last year he might start this season in AA. Strictly a throw-in. Beer is a good prospect, but a 1B and still at least a year away. Varsho and Ginkel are the prizes of this trade. Varsho is a great looking hitter, but needs work on his defense at AAA. He is probably at least a year away. Ginkel has a big arm and big potential. He has shown he is ready for the big leagues this coming season. I'd really be on board with the D'Backs trade, but absolutely not with the Sox trade.

[RollieTime]

I really like your Twins proposal and I think the Brewers and Twins match up pretty well when it comes to team needs, especially if the Twins end up getting Donaldson. I would even be willing to substitute Luis Arraez with Sano if the Twins didn’t want to give up Sano.

 

Totally agree. I feel like since they have Cruz at DH already, that if they sign Donaldson, Sano will be on the trade market. The Twins are going to look to continue improving during this competitive window and adding Hader to the back of their bullpen would be huge for them in shortening games, especially come playoff time.

 

I would take Arraez over Sano if they wanted to go that route. I just don’t see them doing that since he has at least 5 years of control left compared to Sano’s 2.

 

Even if the Brewers hold onto Hader, I could see them laying the foundation to a trade now with the Twins and revisiting a trade come midseason.

I think the Brewers and Twins match up nicely as well -- however I think the original proposal - 3B Miguel Sano (2 years of control), OF/1B Alex Kirilloff (MLB #15 prospect), RHP Brusdar Graterol (MLB #53 prospect) OR RHP Jordan Balazovic (MLB #76 prospect), and OF Trevor Larnach is really heavily in our favor. I think it's overvaluing Hader.

 

I realize we can overvalue Hader as we hold the cards in any such deal. But Kirilloff is a top 20 player. Graterol, Balazovic and Larnach are all top 100 players. To get three of those guys - plus more - is a lot. And I doubt the Twins give up so much considering they will need cheap players in the coming years.

 

No matter, it doesn't mean something couldn't be worked out.

 

I think something like Arraez, Larnach and one of Graterol or Balazovic would be fair. Arraez goes into our IF rotation, while Larnarch is a good looking OF bat, and Graterol or Balazovic would be a nice upside arm for the system. We get a player for now (Arraez) and a couple of guys for near future.

 

Perhaps we can get more, and the club should certainly try.

 

I agree it’s probably a little much as I think Larnach could really shoot up prospect boards in 2020 and is already ranked right around Balazovic. It’s at least a starting point of what I would shoot for and settle on something a little less. If we can’t pry Kirilloff away, I would almost demand Graterol, Balazovic, and Larnach at that point with Sano coming back as well. That might be a little closer to a fair trade, but it’s a little disappointing that they couldn’t even say they got a top 50 prospect for 4 years of one of the premier relievers in the game. 3 players in the 50-80 range isn’t a bad return though as I think two of them could be top 50 players by midseason.

 

I just feel like the Brewers will wait until mid season to make a trade when teams tend to be more willing to deal top prospects for playoff pushes. Not saying the group we would get back in this trade wouldn’t be valuable because I would probably pull the trigger on a trade like this. It’s just starting to feel like a mid season trade is more likely.

 

I’m eager to hear from a solid source at some point names involved in a trade for Hader and what the likelihood is of players like that being involved in the trade.

 

Just for reference, the Andrew Miller (1.5 years of control) and Chapman (.5 year) trades brought back a top 30 prospect. Diaz brought back a couple top 100 with neither in the top 50, but moved a terrible contract with it that definitely ate into the return.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I like the Dbacks proposal from the above post but think the Brewers should get even more for Hader, especially a more sure thing headliner.

 

As a reference, I’d say the Dbacks got as much in prospect value that they’d be giving away in this proposal that they got from Astros last deadline while also unloading Greinkes massive contract.

 

With Astros pipeline ranking at the time

1B Seth Beer (No. 3)

RHP J.B. Bukauskas (No. 4)

RHP Corbin Martin (No. 5)

3b Josh Rojas (No. 22)

 

Is 2 1/2 years of Greinke at $32M per more valuable than 4 arb eliglbe years of Hader?

 

No way I say

[superfly]

Trade Idea

 

Twins Receive:

LHP Josh Hader

 

Brewers Receive:

3B Miguel Sano (2 years of control)

OF/1B Alex Kirilloff (MLB #15 prospect)

RHP Brusdar Graterol (MLB #53 prospect) OR

RHP Jordan Balazovic (MLB #76 prospect)

OF Trevor Larnach

 

For the Twins, they clear Sano’s ~$6 million to help their pursuit of Donaldson and open up 3B for him to slot right in. They also get Hader for 4 years to solidify the back of their bullpen.

 

For the Brewers, Sano is a big bat to add to our lineup that will fill our 3B hole that we also control for the 2021 season. Kirilloff is the big ticket prospect that showed well in AA in 2019. One of Graterol or Balazovic is included depending on Stearns’ preference (I prefer Balazovic as he seems to have TOR potential and could start in AA this season). If Balazovic has another good first half in 2019, I could see him being a top 40 prospect or higher depending on how dominant he is. Larnach is a nice 4th piece that has a high ceiling and was the Twins’ first round pick in 2018.

 

There is absolutely a 1% chance the Twins deal for Hader as he’s getting “expensive” while also clearing out their cheap talent, let alone sign Donaldson. That’s just a ploy to placate the masses of twins faithful with a “we were serious.” The cheap Pohlads might fire their GM if he did this.

 

That’s not to say I wouldn’t be ecstatic if it happening, but don’t hold your breath.

[reillymcshane]

 

I agree it’s probably a little much as I think Larnach could really shoot up prospect boards in 2020 and is already ranked right around Balazovic. It’s at least a starting point of what I would shoot for and settle on something a little less. If we can’t pry Kirilloff away, I would almost demand Graterol, Balazovic, and Larnach at that point with Sano coming back as well. That might be a little closer to a fair trade, but it’s a little disappointing that they couldn’t even say they got a top 50 prospect for 4 years of one of the premier relievers in the game. 3 players in the 50-80 range isn’t a bad return though as I think two of them could be top 50 players by midseason.

 

I just feel like the Brewers will wait until mid season to make a trade when teams tend to be more willing to deal top prospects for playoff pushes. Not saying the group we would get back in this trade wouldn’t be valuable because I would probably pull the trigger on a trade like this. It’s just starting to feel like a mid season trade is more likely.

 

I’m eager to hear from a solid source at some point names involved in a trade for Hader and what the likelihood is of players like that being involved in the trade.

 

Just for reference, the Andrew Miller (1.5 years of control) and Chapman (.5 year) trades brought back a top 30 prospect. Diaz brought back a couple top 100 with neither in the top 50, but moved a terrible contract with it that definitely ate into the return.

 

Note: Miller had 2.5 years of control remaining when dealt.

 

Otherwise, I understand the desire about getting a high level prospect back if Hader is dealt. The precedent is there.

 

Kirilloff had a meh 2019 (mostly due to injuries), so he might drop in rankings. He had an amazing 2018, so we'd love to get the guy.

 

No matter, you want some serious talent if the Crew is going to deal Hader. Personally, I'd like someone to help us now, as well as additional guys to potentially help us down the road. But honestly, I'm okay with a big haul - no matter what level the guys.

[KeithStone53151]

Offer 1:

Diamondbacks receive:

Josh Hader--48.30

 

Brewers receive:

Seth Beer 1st base (96 overall prospect in AA)-want for potential long term 1st base with power and amazing marketing possibilities--7.5

Daulton Varsho C (100 overall prospect in AA)-catcher of future originally from Marshfield, WI and played at UW-Milwaukee--27.4

Jon Duplantier SP (previous top 100 but struggled in AAA and MLB last year)-5 years of control--3.5

Kevin Ginkel RP (amazing minor league stats and debuted last year with great results)--9.0

Total--47.40

 

I think the Diamondbacks are looking to make a splash and compete especially after the Bumgarner signing. I think the Brewers should be getting some extra surplus value back over the 48.30 from Hader since they are giving up the best player in the deal, but more than 4 players is not realistic and the trade machine is definitely an inexact science. I think Varsho will jump up quite a bit in the top 100 as well after huge stats last season. I believe the new Pipeline top 100 comes out at the end of January.

 

Offer 2:

White Sox receive:

Josh Hader--48.3

 

Brewers receive:

Andrew Vaughn 1B (3rd overall pick last year and number 21 overall in top 100)-potential future 1st baseman with 60 grade hit and power--52

Jonathan Stiever SP (White Sox 6th ranked in their top 30)--4.5

Jace Fry RP (4 years control left, lefty reliever)--8.1

Total--64.60

 

I don't like this one as much as the Diamondbacks offer with less pitching potential coming back and only 3 players but love the prospect of getting Vaughn.

 

Welcome!

 

I think that trade value site undervalues what Hader would go for on the market. It's not perfect but it's all we have I get that. I like the Dbacks offer better, that comes off to me as reasonably fair value actually. Duplantier is a good buy low guy, and the other players have some legit upside. Not as big on the White Sox trade. Hard for me to get excited about centering a trade on an undersized RH 1B that is frankly a mediocre at best defender. I don't think he actually projects as a 60 grade power guy, I think he'll hit very well but more of an average than power guy. Don't get me wrong, that has value...but I'm not sure I want him to be the centerpiece for the best reliever in baseball. Bringing in a guy like Beer who is the 3rd best piece in the trade makes more sense.

[sheetskout]

I have to be honest here. Some of the trade ideas in this thread have WAY too much coming back for Hader. I'd caution people to understand that other clubs don't view Hader like we do. Even with the RPOY awards.

 

(For example, there's NO WAY ON EARTH that the White Sox would deal Andrew Vaughn even straight-up for Josh Hader)

[mattyo]

I have to be honest here. Some of the trade ideas in this thread have WAY too much coming back for Hader. I'd caution people to understand that other clubs don't view Hader like we do. Even with the RPOY awards.

 

(For example, there's NO WAY ON EARTH that the White Sox would deal Andrew Vaughn even straight-up for Josh Hader)

 

Everything you've said here is an opinion. You list no facts backing up your absolutist statements here. There is no way you know that other clubs don't view Hader like we do, nor that the White Sox wouldn't deal the #21 prospect in baseball straight up for the best RP in baseball.

 

If your cost controlled elite RP is not bringing back even 1 top 20 prospect (let alone straight up for one) why would you ever consider trading him? That is the point we have gotten to in this thread. We DON'T have to trade Hader. He can still come back and be the anchor for our bullpen that he always has been. Why would we trade that for a middling prospect return, especially at a point when we have a small window to compete?

 

I guess what I am saying is if you have been following this thread, legitimate national reporters have stated Stearns asking price for Hader is rightfully huge. If that asking price is not met then Hader will not be traded, as he is under cheap control for many years. I highly doubt anyone in this thread, let alone the country, believes Hader with 4 years of control is worth less than at least 1 highly regarded prospect. If you want, check the trade comparables, they would all agree with that statement.

 

Will he get traded for a Gleyber Torres? Almost certainly not. But even that trade is more likely than a trade in which we send Hader to a team for some low ranked throw-away prospects.

[brewers888]

I have to be honest here. Some of the trade ideas in this thread have WAY too much coming back for Hader. I'd caution people to understand that other clubs don't view Hader like we do. Even with the RPOY awards.

 

(For example, there's NO WAY ON EARTH that the White Sox would deal Andrew Vaughn even straight-up for Josh Hader)

 

Everything you've said here is an opinion. You list no facts backing up your absolutist statements here. There is no way you know that other clubs don't view Hader like we do, nor that the White Sox wouldn't deal the #21 prospect in baseball straight up for the best RP in baseball.

 

If your cost controlled elite RP is not bringing back even 1 top 20 prospect (let alone straight up for one) why would you ever consider trading him? That is the point we have gotten to in this thread. We DON'T have to trade Hader. He can still come back and be the anchor for our bullpen that he always has been. Why would we trade that for a middling prospect return, especially at a point when we have a small window to compete?

 

I guess what I am saying is if you have been following this thread, legitimate national reporters have stated Stearns asking price for Hader is rightfully huge. If that asking price is not met then Hader will not be traded, as he is under cheap control for many years. I highly doubt anyone in this thread, let alone the country, believes Hader with 4 years of control is worth less than at least 1 highly regarded prospect. If you want, check the trade comparables, they would all agree with that statement.

 

Will he get traded for a Gleyber Torres? Almost certainly not. But even that trade is more likely than a trade in which we send Hader to a team for some low ranked throw-away prospects.

 

You would think we were looking to trade a guy like Taylor Williams with some of these responses. Hader is the best reliever in baseball with 4 yes 4 years of control remaining. Either we trade him for a huge package that will help us this year and the years to come or we just keep him. I am absolutely shocked that some people think we should just trade him for a bunch of scrubs or a few completely flawed guys like Andujar.

 

We are not a feeder team for the yankees and dodgers despite what the national media believes. Unless we are getting a cant miss guy like Gavin Lux I have no interest in trading Hader.

[KeithStone53151]

Will he get traded for a Gleyber Torres? Almost certainly not. But even that trade is more likely than a trade in which we send Hader to a team for some low ranked throw-away prospects.

 

If Hader gets traded, it will probably involve someone of roughly the value of a gleybar torres at the time of trade coming back...or he won't get traded. Everything up here is of course speculation.

 

I'll add I'm definitely bored of all the Andrew Vaughn talk. Why do we want to trade for an undersized RH 1b in the low minors? I get he has the draft pedigree, but this guy basically needs to post 950+ OPS at the MLB level immediately upon callup or it's an awful trade...if he's more of a high average, low power, 850 OPS guy that he projects to be...you can too easily replace 90% of that value in FA for a couple million. Pick a different centerpiece...

[brewerfan82]

I think most of the opposing viewpoints on this matter come down to two types of people:

 

1.) Those that believe you only consider trading him if you get an absurd return. You have 4 years of control, you should ask for the moon and if you don't get it, there's still a ton of time to get a huge return later on, and in the meantime you have Josh FREAKING Hader on your team.

 

or

 

2.) Those that believe you consider trading him if the trade makes the team/organization better. Yes, he has 4 years of control left, but relievers are notoriously unpredictable and injuries happen. You're not likely to get offered more in a trade as his years of control decrease and his cost increases, and if he doesn't continue being the best reliever on the planet, his value could drop drastically.

 

Both viewpoints are very valid in their own ways and both have their pitfalls. But neither deserves some of the backlash that's been getting thrown at them. Improving the team can come in many forms, if you don't think a poster's idea for a trade makes the team better overall, explain what you would change about it. But these angry and demeaning, "if you don't get a top 20 prospect then you're settling for peanuts" posts aren't offering much to the discussion. No one is suggesting to trade Hader just to trade him. There's just a lot of difference in opinion of where on the scale of "makes the team better overall" to "is a fair return for an elite reliever" to "impossible to turn down" is the threshold for pulling the trigger on a possible trade at this point.

[bigred]

Will he get traded for a Gleyber Torres? Almost certainly not. But even that trade is more likely than a trade in which we send Hader to a team for some low ranked throw-away prospects.

 

If Hader gets traded, it will probably involve someone of roughly the value of a gleybar torres at the time of trade coming back...or he won't get traded. Everything up here is of course speculation.

 

I'll add I'm definitely bored of all the Andrew Vaughn talk. Why do we want to trade for an undersized RH 1b in the low minors? I get he has the draft pedigree, but this guy basically needs to post 950+ OPS at the MLB level immediately upon callup or it's an awful trade...if he's more of a high average, low power, 850 OPS guy that he projects to be...you can too easily replace 90% of that value in FA for a couple million. Pick a different centerpiece...

 

I'm starting to doubt Hader will be traded anytime soon, and am also not a huge fan of Andujar either. If a trade wth the Yankees would happen though, with Andujar included, would you be willing to eat humble pie if he ended up being a All-Star level player for the Crew? . This is meant as just a little lighthearted humor, but also a serious question at the same time. Lol

[bigred]

I think most of the opposing viewpoints on this matter come down to two types of people:

 

1.) Those that believe you only consider trading him if you get an absurd return. You have 4 years of control, you should ask for the moon and if you don't get it, there's still a ton of time to get a huge return later on, and in the meantime you have Josh FREAKING Hader on your team.

 

or

 

2.) Those that believe you consider trading him if the trade makes the team/organization better. Yes, he has 4 years of control left, but relievers are notoriously unpredictable and injuries happen. You're not likely to get offered more in a trade as his years of control decrease and his cost increases, and if he doesn't continue being the best reliever on the planet, his value could drop drastically.

 

Both viewpoints are very valid in their own ways and both have their pitfalls. But neither deserves some of the backlash that's been getting thrown at them. Improving the team can come in many forms, if you don't think a poster's idea for a trade makes the team better overall, explain what you would change about it. But these angry and demeaning, "if you don't get a top 20 prospect then you're settling for peanuts" posts aren't offering much to the discussion. No one is suggesting to trade Hader just to trade him. There's just a lot of difference in opinion of where on the scale of "makes the team better overall" to "is a fair return for an elite reliever" to "impossible to turn down" is the threshold for pulling the trigger on a possible trade at this point.

 

 

Well said sir. Very well said.

[brewcrewdue80]

I have to be honest here. Some of the trade ideas in this thread have WAY too much coming back for Hader. I'd caution people to understand that other clubs don't view Hader like we do. Even with the RPOY awards.

 

(For example, there's NO WAY ON EARTH that the White Sox would deal Andrew Vaughn even straight-up for Josh Hader)

 

Totally disagree here. White Sox would jump for joy at Hader for Vaughn straight up. What about Vaughn makes him special for a 1b prospect? Why even is he in the top 25? The readup on him says nothing but a 1b bat.

 

The Brewers wouldn't trade Corbin Burnes straight up for Andrew Vaughn. Some posters here are way over-valuing Vaughn.

 

Arizona trade idea above. Switch Seth Beer for Geraldo Perdomo. 6'3" SS that had more BBs than Ks last season. You would keep with the tradition of up the middle prowess and allow the Urias to 3b turn out. It seems a little light but honestly what Ginkel has done is just perform from minors to majors. It'd be like taking a step down from Hader while adding 3 certain MLB future prospects.

 

I posted about Stiever previously I like him in that White Sox trade proposal. but with Vaughn that is not enough back for Hader considering the moves the White Sox have made. The RP is more than a step down. Vaughn and Stiever have 0 chance of making an impact for the 2020 regular season. I still go back to Dylan Cease needed in the trade from WS for Hader. That is essentially a better Duplantier in the Arizona proposal.

[A Swing and A Drive]

2 things:

 

White Sox would trade Andrew Vaughn straight up for Josh Hader without a second thought.

 

Brewers would trade Corbin Burnes staight up for Andrew Vaughn without a second thought.

 

These are the two extremes of overrating and underrating 1B Andrew Vaughn IMO.

[reillymcshane]

The most comparable trade for a player like Hader is probably Andrew Miller. I think it's a smart thing to revisit the trade as we try and ascertain the value of Hader on the trade market.

 

Miller was one of the most dominating relievers in baseball when he was traded by the Yankees to the Indians in July of 2016. He had 2 1/3 seasons remaining on his deal, which paid him $9M annually. He was 31 years old at the time.

 

Miller had produced seasons of 2.2 and 2.0 fWAR (bWAR was 1.9 and 2.4) in 2014-15. At the time of his trade, he was having his finest season (1.39 ERA, 77K in 44.1 IP). He would go on to produce 2.9 fWAR/3.7 bWAR.

 

Hader has produced 2.6 and 2.3 fWAR in 2018-19 (2.1 and 2.6 bWAR). So those are comparable numbers.

 

In the end, both were awesome in this time frame. In 2015, Miller was voted the AL's top reliever while in 2019, Hader was the NL's top reliever. Hader worked more innings, but is younger, and has less wear and tear on his arm. In the end, I don't think it is a huge difference.

 

You can argue that the two men were in very similar situations (career-wise).

 

So, while the two are comparable, what is different between the two players?

 

1. Hader has 4 full years of control, compared to 2.5 for Miller. And extra one and a half years is major. This is probably the biggest difference between the two players, and if comparing in a vacuum, makes Hader a more attractive player.

 

However, the players exist in the real world - and I think that does matter. See next points.

 

2. Miller was in the midst of an absolutely brilliant 2016 season. He would strikeout 123 batters in 74.1 innings and have an ERA of 1.45 that year. 3. Miller was dealt at the trade deadline.

 

These two factors were huge in determining the return for Miller. You had one of the best (perhaps the best) relievers in baseball - having an incredible year (even for him) - available at the trade deadline, and teams were desperate to add him. These made for a sense of urgency that forced teams to act if they wanted him.

 

The Return

 

Miller netted prospects Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield in the deal (as well as two other lower level relievers - J.P. Feyereisen and Ben Heller). We will focus on the two main pieces of the deal - Frazier and Sheffield.

 

Frazier - coming in to 2016, Frazier was ranked #44 by Baseball America, #27 by MLB Pipeline, and #53 by Baseball Prospectus. He was only 21 years old. He had reached AA, and was having a good season (.825 OPS), but not a dominating one. The fifth overall pick in the draft in 2013, scouts had always loved Frazier's skillset, although he had never really had a huge minor league season at this point (or since). Of course, he had always been very young compared to his peers.

 

Sheffield - coming into 2016, the left handed throwing Sheffield was ranked #81 by Baseball America, but not in the Top 100 by MLB Pipeline or Baseball Prospectus. The 31st overall pick in the 2014 draft, Sheffield had reached A+ ball that year, and was having a good season (3.59 ERA, 93K in 95 IP). While not on some prospects lists, he was a rising name, only 20 years old, and would reach the upper tiers of Top 100 lists by the off season.

 

So, looking at the deal, we can probably say that the Yankees got a Top 30-50 level prospect in Frazier, and an upper tier (80-90) level prospect in Sheffield.

 

At the time, the return of Frazier and Sheffield was considered very good for the Yankees.

 

The return for Hader

 

With that all said, if we use this trade as a guide, what could we expect for Hader? You can argue we should get more since it's 4 years versus 2.5. And that's probably true. However, we also need to take in account the timing of the deal. Right now, one of the things that many teams don't have is a sense of urgency. It's the offseason. Having Josh Hader doesn't make or break a season for a team at this time. In the end, the 1.5 extra years of Hader does matter - but maybe not massively.

 

I think the urgency you find at the trade deadline dampens Hader's return (as compared to Miller's), but not a lot. The extra 1.5 years certainly makes up for that - and probably more. But we can't just say we should get a 40% better return because a team will get Hader for 40% more.

 

In the end, I think that if we dealt Hader, we would expect a return a little better than what Miller fetched. Again, that means a Top 30-50 player, and another guy at the back end of the Top 100. How much better is certainly debatable - but I don't think it's massive. Figuring this out is a bit dicey as many of the prospect lists we have are almost a year old - so we are running off of old lists.

 

I don't think it's out of the question that we could land a top 20 or even top 10 player in a trade, but clubs don't let such guys go very often. Just using prospect rankings as a guide, I could easily see something like players #25 and #60 or something like that. It's very inexact - but I think you get the idea.

 

One way to improve Hader's return - hold on to him and deal him at the deadline if we are out of the race. Of course, there is a risk as Hader might get hurt or his performance may regress. But getting teams desperate for a huge bullpen arm in the heat of the pennant race is probably the best way to maximize Hader's return.

 

Hope this has been interesting for some of you.

[wibadgers23]

Any interest in Braves 3B Austin Riley? If Atlanta signs Donaldson, maybe the Brewers and Braves could work something out involving Riley and some of their pitching prospects.

[clancyphile]

I think most of the opposing viewpoints on this matter come down to two types of people:

 

1.) Those that believe you only consider trading him if you get an absurd return. You have 4 years of control, you should ask for the moon and if you don't get it, there's still a ton of time to get a huge return later on, and in the meantime you have Josh FREAKING Hader on your team.

 

or

 

2.) Those that believe you consider trading him if the trade makes the team/organization better. Yes, he has 4 years of control left, but relievers are notoriously unpredictable and injuries happen. You're not likely to get offered more in a trade as his years of control decrease and his cost increases, and if he doesn't continue being the best reliever on the planet, his value could drop drastically.

 

Both viewpoints are very valid in their own ways and both have their pitfalls. But neither deserves some of the backlash that's been getting thrown at them. Improving the team can come in many forms, if you don't think a poster's idea for a trade makes the team better overall, explain what you would change about it. But these angry and demeaning, "if you don't get a top 20 prospect then you're settling for peanuts" posts aren't offering much to the discussion. No one is suggesting to trade Hader just to trade him. There's just a lot of difference in opinion of where on the scale of "makes the team better overall" to "is a fair return for an elite reliever" to "impossible to turn down" is the threshold for pulling the trigger on a possible trade at this point.

 

I think both 1 and 2 are relevant for this offseason. I think next year, even if Hader dominates, number 2 becomes a bigger consideration. Yes, Hader has a longer track record, but the Super 2 status and the fact there are only three years of control left will drop the price some.

 

You only trade Hader if the deal helps the club and if it is a good value.

 

But Hader's value, at this point IS THE MOON.

[brewtank34]

Y’all should check out Paul Juliano’s Twitter. @pjuliano1689

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Y’all should check out Paul Juliano’s Twitter. @pjuliano1689

 

I don't think anything that guy is saying is legit. He keeps floating the idea out there that the Brewers need to trade Hader, and they should just take what they can get. That just isn't reality at all.

[TJseven7]

The most comparable trade for a player like Hader is probably Andrew Miller. I think it's a smart thing to revisit the trade as we try and ascertain the value of Hader on the trade market.

 

Miller was one of the most dominating relievers in baseball when he was traded by the Yankees to the Indians in July of 2016. He had 2 1/3 seasons remaining on his deal, which paid him $9M annually. He was 31 years old at the time.

 

Miller had produced seasons of 2.2 and 2.0 fWAR (bWAR was 1.9 and 2.4) in 2014-15. At the time of his trade, he was having his finest season (1.39 ERA, 77K in 44.1 IP). He would go on to produce 2.9 fWAR/3.7 bWAR.

 

Hader has produced 2.6 and 2.3 fWAR in 2018-19 (2.1 and 2.6 bWAR). So those are comparable numbers.

 

In the end, both were awesome in this time frame. In 2015, Miller was voted the AL's top reliever while in 2019, Hader was the NL's top reliever. Hader worked more innings, but is younger, and has less wear and tear on his arm. In the end, I don't think it is a huge difference.

 

You can argue that the two men were in very similar situations (career-wise).

 

So, while the two are comparable, what is different between the two players?

 

1. Hader has 4 full years of control, compared to 2.5 for Miller. And extra one and a half years is major. This is probably the biggest difference between the two players, and if comparing in a vacuum, makes Hader a more attractive player.

 

However, the players exist in the real world - and I think that does matter. See next points.

 

2. Miller was in the midst of an absolutely brilliant 2016 season. He would strikeout 123 batters in 74.1 innings and have an ERA of 1.45 that year. 3. Miller was dealt at the trade deadline.

 

These two factors were huge in determining the return for Miller. You had one of the best (perhaps the best) relievers in baseball - having an incredible year (even for him) - available at the trade deadline, and teams were desperate to add him. These made for a sense of urgency that forced teams to act if they wanted him.

 

The Return

 

Miller netted prospects Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield in the deal (as well as two other lower level relievers - J.P. Feyereisen and Ben Heller). We will focus on the two main pieces of the deal - Frazier and Sheffield.

 

Frazier - coming in to 2016, Frazier was ranked #44 by Baseball America, #27 by MLB Pipeline, and #53 by Baseball Prospectus. He was only 21 years old. He had reached AA, and was having a good season (.825 OPS), but not a dominating one. The fifth overall pick in the draft in 2013, scouts had always loved Frazier's skillset, although he had never really had a huge minor league season at this point (or since). Of course, he had always been very young compared to his peers.

 

Sheffield - coming into 2016, the left handed throwing Sheffield was ranked #81 by Baseball America, but not in the Top 100 by MLB Pipeline or Baseball Prospectus. The 31st overall pick in the 2014 draft, Sheffield had reached A+ ball that year, and was having a good season (3.59 ERA, 93K in 95 IP). While not on some prospects lists, he was a rising name, only 20 years old, and would reach the upper tiers of Top 100 lists by the off season.

 

So, looking at the deal, we can probably say that the Yankees got a Top 30-50 level prospect in Frazier, and an upper tier (80-90) level prospect in Sheffield.

 

At the time, the return of Frazier and Sheffield was considered very good for the Yankees.

 

The return for Hader

 

With that all said, if we use this trade as a guide, what could we expect for Hader? You can argue we should get more since it's 4 years versus 2.5. And that's probably true. However, we also need to take in account the timing of the deal. Right now, one of the things that many teams don't have is a sense of urgency. It's the offseason. Having Josh Hader doesn't make or break a season for a team at this time. In the end, the 1.5 extra years of Hader does matter - but maybe not massively.

 

I think the urgency you find at the trade deadline dampens Hader's return (as compared to Miller's), but not a lot. The extra 1.5 years certainly makes up for that - and probably more. But we can't just say we should get a 40% better return because a team will get Hader for 40% more.

 

In the end, I think that if we dealt Hader, we would expect a return a little better than what Miller fetched. Again, that means a Top 30-50 player, and another guy at the back end of the Top 100. How much better is certainly debatable - but I don't think it's massive. Figuring this out is a bit dicey as many of the prospect lists we have are almost a year old - so we are running off of old lists.

 

I don't think it's out of the question that we could land a top 20 or even top 10 player in a trade, but clubs don't let such guys go very often. Just using prospect rankings as a guide, I could easily see something like players #25 and #60 or something like that. It's very inexact - but I think you get the idea.

 

One way to improve Hader's return - hold on to him and deal him at the deadline if we are out of the race. Of course, there is a risk as Hader might get hurt or his performance may regress. But getting teams desperate for a huge bullpen arm in the heat of the pennant race is probably the best way to maximize Hader's return.

 

Hope this has been interesting for some of you.

 

Better than most anything else in this thread.

 

Hader is also at about 4.6 mil estimated this year. He won't likely hit the 9 million dollar price tag Miller had in 2016 until arby 3 or 4.