Hader trade ideas

[Fear The Chorizo]

Going back to our 2016 prospect list from MLB Pipeline Stearns has traded 7 of our top 10 prospects for major league help.

 

Aside from Grisham, who was dealt in a package that returned a prospect who has always been rated much higher than him and who can play middle IF positions, which of the other 6 prospects from that list Stearns traded has shown anything at the MLB level that would indicate he made a mistake trading them for what he go in return in value for the MLB club? Dubon in his cup of coffee I guess, but he was never going to play over Hiura at 2nd and it's still unclear whether he could play SS everyday at the big league level compared to a player like Urias. Plus trading him got the Brewers Pomeranz down the stretch, which was one of the primary reasons they even sniffed the postseason last year.

 

These are the prospects in that top ten that were dealt since 2016

 

Brinson

Ortiz

Grisham

Phillips

Diaz

Dubon

Lara

 

To me that 2016 list that had the Brewers' farm in the top 10 systems across MLB (MLB pipeline actually had them as best in baseball after the 2016 trade deadline) shows how overrated their system was and also how unreliable prospect rankings are in general. However, the interesting item is one of the 3 prospects the Brewers held onto from that list of ten was Hader, who is now the subject of a 40 page thread on trading away despite still having him for 4 more seasons - most of which will be had for below market value for a premium reliever with multi-inning abilities that solidifies a pitching staff no matter what his role is.

[Austin Tatious]

Very good points. Don't be shocked in the end that our top ten now--which isn't highly regarded--blows away the top ten that you listed. We have several pitchers who show legitimate promise right now, and I bet some of the pan out very nicely.

[Madhawk23]

Going back to our 2016 prospect list from MLB Pipeline Stearns has traded 7 of our top 10 prospects for major league help.

 

Aside from Grisham, who was dealt in a package that returned a prospect who has always been rated much higher than him and who can play middle IF positions, which of the other 6 prospects from that list Stearns traded has shown anything at the MLB level that would indicate he made a mistake trading them for what he go in return in value for the MLB club? Dubon in his cup of coffee I guess, but he was never going to play over Hiura at 2nd and it's still unclear whether he could play SS everyday at the big league level compared to a player like Urias. Plus trading him got the Brewers Pomeranz down the stretch, which was one of the primary reasons they even sniffed the postseason last year.

 

These are the prospects in that top ten that were dealt since 2016

 

Brinson

Ortiz

Grisham

Phillips

Diaz

Dubon

Lara

 

To me that 2016 list that had the Brewers' farm in the top 10 systems across MLB (MLB pipeline actually had them as best in baseball after the 2016 trade deadline) shows how overrated their system was and also how unreliable prospect rankings are in general. However, the interesting item is one of the 3 prospects the Brewers held onto from that list of ten was Hader, who is now the subject of a 40 page thread on trading away despite still having him for 4 more seasons - most of which will be had for below market value for a premium reliever with multi-inning abilities that solidifies a pitching staff no matter what his role is.

 

Yeah, it's crazy to look back at that Top 10 now and realize just how much that group was over-valued at the time. It also makes you realize (not that we really needed a reminder on this) again how volatile prospects are. Yes, some will pan out, but many (if not most) won't ever live up to our inflated expectations are for them. You have to wonder if Stearns knew that some of these guys were over-hyped, which made it easier to include them in the trades that sent them packing to other teams? We'll probably never know the full truth on that though.

[3and2Fastball]

I think every GM knows that half of their Top Ten prospects are overhyped and likely busts. The trick is in figuring out which half are the busts and which half have real potential.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think it matter in trade value. Say NYY only sent 30mil to get 55mil in return. Milw sent 57mil to get 40in return and KC sent 40mil to get 32mil in return.

 

Its settling for less while giving up far more. We actually take on more money for 2019 and possibly 2020 when we are getting rid of Hader at his peak value for the simple reason he's going to get expensive(or cheap discount if you're the Yankees,..at a discount)

 

You opine Hader (& Arcia) are worth more than Merrifield and Montgomery, that’s fair, but the Brewers actually save about 600K in 2020 in the deal based on arby estimates. Hader @ 4.6m, Montgomery @ 1.2m. Merrifield will make 5m and Arcia will make 2.2m.

Ill admit it was late response and I actually thought montgomery played for the Royals.

On the money end Merrifield has built in money triggers that will add to his expense. Or if he doesn't, you got poor results from him and the headliner on your return was junk. Montgomery after some digging, is Hader like, being a Super 2. 1/4 the cost/equal control. This is sorta like on the good results of the trade, the Brewers are paying 2players for what Hader alone would cost them. But if either of those two arent good you save money, but the team is worse overall for the same time frame as just keeping Hader.

Yankees did pay more value but still underwhelming.

 

Anyway, a blurb on Andujar via MLBTR was that the Yankees believe he'll be ready to go come Spring Training. Again he is such a risk not only on even if his 2018 performance was the real deal, but is he even going to be healthy to start the 2020 season? What GM is going to trade for him before the 2020 season? I mean maybe for Arcia at the moment because he's likely about to spend the 2020 season in the minors or waived.

[trwi7]

Going back to our 2016 prospect list from MLB Pipeline Stearns has traded 7 of our top 10 prospects for major league help.

 

Aside from Grisham, who was dealt in a package that returned a prospect who has always been rated much higher than him and who can play middle IF positions, which of the other 6 prospects from that list Stearns traded has shown anything at the MLB level that would indicate he made a mistake trading them for what he go in return in value for the MLB club? Dubon in his cup of coffee I guess, but he was never going to play over Hiura at 2nd and it's still unclear whether he could play SS everyday at the big league level compared to a player like Urias. Plus trading him got the Brewers Pomeranz down the stretch, which was one of the primary reasons they even sniffed the postseason last year.

 

These are the prospects in that top ten that were dealt since 2016

 

Brinson

Ortiz

Grisham

Phillips

Diaz

Dubon

Lara

 

To me that 2016 list that had the Brewers' farm in the top 10 systems across MLB (MLB pipeline actually had them as best in baseball after the 2016 trade deadline) shows how overrated their system was and also how unreliable prospect rankings are in general. However, the interesting item is one of the 3 prospects the Brewers held onto from that list of ten was Hader, who is now the subject of a 40 page thread on trading away despite still having him for 4 more seasons - most of which will be had for below market value for a premium reliever with multi-inning abilities that solidifies a pitching staff no matter what his role is.

 

Thanks for completely missing the point of my post.

[baumer16]

I think it matter in trade value. Say NYY only sent 30mil to get 55mil in return. Milw sent 57mil to get 40in return and KC sent 40mil to get 32mil in return.

 

Its settling for less while giving up far more. We actually take on more money for 2019 and possibly 2020 when we are getting rid of Hader at his peak value for the simple reason he's going to get expensive(or cheap discount if you're the Yankees,..at a discount)

 

You opine Hader (& Arcia) are worth more than Merrifield and Montgomery, that’s fair, but the Brewers actually save about 600K in 2020 in the deal based on arby estimates. Hader @ 4.6m, Montgomery @ 1.2m. Merrifield will make 5m and Arcia will make 2.2m.

Ill admit it was late response and I actually thought montgomery played for the Royals.

On the money end Merrifield has built in money triggers that will add to his expense. Or if he doesn't, you got poor results from him and the headliner on your return was junk. Montgomery after some digging, is Hader like, being a Super 2. 1/4 the cost/equal control. This is sorta like on the good results of the trade, the Brewers are paying 2players for what Hader alone would cost them. But if either of those two arent good you save money, but the team is worse overall for the same time frame as just keeping Hader.

Yankees did pay more value but still underwhelming.

 

Anyway, a blurb on Andujar via MLBTR was that the Yankees believe he'll be ready to go come Spring Training. Again he is such a risk not only on even if his 2018 performance was the real deal, but is he even going to be healthy to start the 2020 season? What GM is going to trade for him before the 2020 season? I mean maybe for Arcia at the moment because he's likely about to spend the 2020 season in the minors or waived.

 

I think a lot of GM’s would be willing to trade for him now. He was runner up for rookie of the year and a possible star middle of the order bat controlled for 4 more years. His defense is lacking but that can be improved or he can be moved to 1b. You dont trade that for a minimal return and you definitely wouldn’t trade that straight up for Arcia

[Fear The Chorizo]

Going back to our 2016 prospect list from MLB Pipeline Stearns has traded 7 of our top 10 prospects for major league help.

 

Aside from Grisham, who was dealt in a package that returned a prospect who has always been rated much higher than him and who can play middle IF positions, which of the other 6 prospects from that list Stearns traded has shown anything at the MLB level that would indicate he made a mistake trading them for what he go in return in value for the MLB club? Dubon in his cup of coffee I guess, but he was never going to play over Hiura at 2nd and it's still unclear whether he could play SS everyday at the big league level compared to a player like Urias. Plus trading him got the Brewers Pomeranz down the stretch, which was one of the primary reasons they even sniffed the postseason last year.

 

These are the prospects in that top ten that were dealt since 2016

 

Brinson

Ortiz

Grisham

Phillips

Diaz

Dubon

Lara

 

To me that 2016 list that had the Brewers' farm in the top 10 systems across MLB (MLB pipeline actually had them as best in baseball after the 2016 trade deadline) shows how overrated their system was and also how unreliable prospect rankings are in general. However, the interesting item is one of the 3 prospects the Brewers held onto from that list of ten was Hader, who is now the subject of a 40 page thread on trading away despite still having him for 4 more seasons - most of which will be had for below market value for a premium reliever with multi-inning abilities that solidifies a pitching staff no matter what his role is.

 

Thanks for completely missing the point of my post.

 

Your point was making the case Stearns built the current roster differently than a delirious nfl GM to a poster I currently have blocked, so forgive me for expanding on one of your good points instead of going down the rabbit hole they were trying to dig. All I was trying to do was fill in perspective with how perceived prospect value is oftentimes overstated, particularly in trades. I actually think this is somewhat of a market/value issue that Stearns is exploiting by selling overvalued prospect assets for established mlb talent...especially if a gm is adept at identifying prospects who are more likely to flame out or not blossom into 4 WAR players once they reach the major leagues.

[jackailius]

Just because this has been going so long and it has been almost 12 hours without an addition, i thought i would throw out who are competing that I think will be calling Stearns about deals. I put who I think might make sense to ask for and am hoping to continue the debate about what we think is an appropriate return for 4 years of Hader. Personally, i like prospects that are closer to MLB ready when possible and for pitchers I look for above average control as a starting point. I also look to get several prospects because this may be a defining moment for Stearns trading career and prospects flame out more than they follow through with the hype IMO. Also, I'm not the expert on prospects that a lot of you are so I'm going off of lists and ranking of tools that are posted. The number after some of the names is where mlb.com pipeline currently has them ranked. Thoughts? Too much? Too little? Again, just trying to keep the conversation and speculation going on this slow pre-New Years time.

 

White Sox

Madrigal (2b) (40)

Dunning RHP or Stiever RHP

Sheets 1b

Burger 3b

Mendick INF

 

Dodgers

If Lux and May are a no go

Ruiz C (33) or Gray RHP (75)

Gonslin RHP

Hoese 3b

White RHP

 

Mets

Davis 1B/OF (MLB)

Gimenez SS (92)

Allan RHP

Vientos 3b

Peterson LHP

 

Phillies

Bohm 3b/1b (34)

Medina RHP

Garcia SS/2b

Romero LHP

 

Padres

Patino (30)

Campusano (86)/ Weathers

Potts

 

Yankees

I don’t trust this orgs prospect ratings but I’d need this from them)

Garcia RHP (62)

Gil RHP

Schmidt RHP or Gomez RHP

Seigler C

One of Vizcaino RHP or Stephan RHP or Sikkema LHP

 

Twins

Kirilloff OF (15)

Graterol RHP (53) or Balazovic RHP (76)

One of Thorpe LHP or Enlow RHP or Canterino RHP

 

Blue Jays

Groshans ss/3b (67)

Manoah RHP

Richardson RHP

Kay LHP

Moreno C

 

Angels

Just don’t have what it takes as they aren’t trading Adell

 

Diamondbacks

Not really seeing anything I like

 

Nationals

Not a fit unless Kieboom is included- not likely

 

Braves

With the addition of Smith and Martin they probably feel comfortable with their pen

 

***Updated with positions

[wibadgers23]

With 4 years of control left, I just think a Hader trade is going to be difficult. The Brewers are going to be asking for the moon (as they should) and I don’t think a team is going to give that up for a reliever, even though Hader is the best in all of baseball. I’m leaning toward this doesn’t happen this offseason.

[Luke99]

I see a lot to like from the Dbacks.

 

If we could land:

 

Kristian Robinson

Dalton Varsho

Geraldo Perdomo

Jon Duplaintier

 

I would jump for joy. I think Varsho is the perfect 26th man for any team. fast, contact-oriented, can play catcher, 2nd, OF (in a pinch), gives you a ton of options

 

Duplaintier can contribute in the bullpen this year. Robinson and Perdomo are two up the middle athletes that Stearns loves.

 

That said I see about a 5% chance the Dbacks go for it.

[wntrtxn21]

I see a lot to like from the Dbacks.

 

If we could land:

 

Kristian Robinson

Dalton Varsho

Geraldo Perdomo

Jon Duplaintier

 

I would jump for joy. I think Varsho is the perfect 26th man for any team. fast, contact-oriented, can play catcher, 2nd, OF (in a pinch), gives you a ton of options

 

Duplaintier can contribute in the bullpen this year. Robinson and Perdomo are two up the middle athletes that Stearns loves.

 

That said I see about a 5% chance the Dbacks go for it.

 

Robinson is an OF who was overmatched at A ball (.217/.294) struckout at a 30% rate.

Daulton Varsho is a very good offensive catcher. A real good prospect at AA last year. Not ready for MLB until he improves defensively and shows he can hit AAA pitching.

Perdomo is a SS and another good prospect still at A ball

Duplantier was bad at AAA last year. 5.29 ERA - 1.56 WHIP - almost 7 walks/9 IPs - He is not ready for anybody's pen until he can find some control. He would be interesting, but not MLB ready.

Overall there is no immediate help to the Brewers. Robinson and Perdomo are 3-4 years away if ever.

Varsho is at least one year away and who knows about Duplantier? Still a huge hole at 3B and now no closer in the pen. Stearns needs to address 3B/pitching with any Hader deal.

[edfunderburk]

It would be helpful if positions were included for each player in the trade proposal options ... I’m not familiar with many of these minor leaguers.

 

Also, if the Dodgers trade for Lindor, I would love Dustin May to be included with Josh Turner should the Brewers send Hader to LA.

[GlennBraggsBat]

DS rebuild got pushed up a year earlier then expected with the yelich/cain/braun/shaw offense, and was supplemented with moustakas and Grandal with acquisition and a 1yr deal. Brewers have a good core with woodruff(extension candidate!), yelich, hiura with Braun off the books next year. Think this year is a reboot year, with hader getting traded at the deadline (when prospects have another half year to develop and team needs come clearer). 2021 yelich extension and supplemental signings.

[RollieTime]

It would be helpful if positions were included for each player in the trade proposal options ... I’m not familiar with many of these minor leaguers.

 

Also, if the Dodgers trade for Lindor, I would love Dustin May to be included with Josh Turner should the Brewers send Hader to LA.

 

Totally agree! Bring Josh Turner in, let him continue his singing career, and take those funds he makes from concerts to put toward a higher payroll! This is a great outside the box idea to help give a big boost to the payroll!

 

I agree in that the Dodgers have much better pieces to get in a return package. Ruiz, Gray, and Gonsolin is a great start to a package jackailius. You get your catcher of the future (hopefully) that is in AAA, a lively arm in AA that has been pretty dominant since being drafted, and a starting pitcher in Gonsolin that you control for 6 years that can be slotted into the rotation right now. if they could pry those three away and get a flier or two thrown in, I would love the trade. I would target Edwin Rios as a piece in the return package as well. He’s on the cusp of the MLB and is third baseman that can move over to first as well. That solves our third base vacancy right now. Then sign a guy like Flores as a utility infielder that can take over the everyday 3B roll if Rios isn’t cutting it early on in 2020.

[Luke99]

Yes they are prospects. I get that and they all have warts. I personally would rather gamble on a ton of upside to keep us competitive over the long haul. Why do we have to get a 3rd baseman in a deal for Hader? If the best offer doesn't include that solution then why take a lesser deal to fill a hole. There are a ton of ways to get 3rd base help. It doesn't have to be a Hader deal. I am hoping to see Hader dealt for the best deal possible, sign Will Harris, then see where the roster sits. It all depends to me on how much they believe in the rest of their bullpen pieces.

[edfunderburk]

Yikes ... I don’t even know the singer JOSH Turner ...

 

Obviously, I intended JUSTIN Turner in my earlier post

[GlennBraggsBat]

I totally agree that a 3rd baseman would NOT have to come back in a trade of hader. Get the best possible return whether it be milb or mlb, just need 4-5 years of control and prospects you believe in. I am a believer that a separate trade to acquire dom smith and jed Lowry would fill 3rd and give you a left handed controllable 1st baseman

[baumer16]

I totally agree that a 3rd baseman would NOT have to come back in a trade of hader. Get the best possible return whether it be milb or mlb, just need 4-5 years of control and prospects you believe in. I am a believer that a separate trade to acquire dom smith and jed Lowry would fill 3rd and give you a left handed controllable 1st baseman

 

What makes the Hader trade difficult is that the Brewers arent rebuilding. So getting the best possible prospects probably isn’t an option. If it were then they might as well trade Yelich as well and do a full rebuild. They need to trade him to someone who’s willing to give up a possible young mlb player that can come in and contribute right away. There aren’t a lot of teams that have that luxury. Which is why a Hader for Andujar trade always made the most sense. Or Dodgers with Lux but I highly doubt they would give him up for Hader.

 

Also the Mets are trying to win now. They will use Smith to try and get an MLB piece to add to their roster. I’m not sure the Brewers have anything to give them, besides Hader, that doesn’t hurt our chances of contention as well. And obviously we would want a lot more for Hader which they wouldn’t be willing to give cause then it hurts their chances to compete.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I don't want to steer this off topic, but this brings up, to me, a perfect comparison. Ted Thompson(Who I despised), always blatantly ignored free agency, at least as far as big names go. He built his roster(s), essentially the same way Stearns does, with cheap, young players. Eventually what happened(as I knew it would), is the roster became terrible when injuries hit(they had no veteran depth at minimum) to get them through. They got so bad, they had losing records, and he eventually lost his job. Ironically the few times he did sign "name" guys in Free agency(think, Charles Woodson, Ryan Pickett etc) it worked out great. Fast forward to last year...what did they do?? Went out and revamped the defense by signing big $$ players in Preston Smith, Zhadarius Smith, and Adrian Amos. Andddddd just like that, their defense became a TON better. "Big name" free agency works EXACTLY the way it's supposed to, if you sign the right guys. Very similar in how Stearns mines for bargains, the same theory applies to big name FA's as well. Yes, i get it, the sports are different etc, but the concepts are the same.

Sorry I'm a few days late on this, but this offseason has just about been as anti-Ted Thompson as you can get, and this is from someone who was a Thompson fan before he lost his fastball when it came to the draft. Several of the top teams in the league at that time dipped their toes into the top end of the free agent market roughly as often as the Packers did, preferring to focus on keeping their own players. What made Thompson stand out was his aversion for the middle-lower tiers of free agency, at least after his first season. This offseason has been about the Brewers trying to find value and fill holes through those middle and lower tiers. That veteran depth you talk about the Packers lacking is precisely what guys such as Sogard, Smoak, Lindblom, Anderson and even Healy represent.

 

Back on topic, I'm really getting skeptical that a Hader trade happens. If it could fill a major league hole and add minor league talent it might make sense, but as some of the contortions and three-team scenarios being proposed in this thread show, that seems to be getting increasingly difficult to do. I might be wrong, but I think this ends up being a lot of smoke and no fire.

[Soupbone]

I agree with GlennBraggsBat. It sure feels like a reboot to clear some contracts (Braun Shaw Guerra etc.) Then if you are in contention at the deadline you still have Hader to dominate from the pen. If not in contention I doubt his value has gone down much from right now and you may have a team or two who are desperate for a relief pitcher. Don't like the idea of not going all in but if we are following the lead of Tampa Bay or Oakland this is how you do it.

[MNBrew]

Going back to our 2016 prospect list from MLB Pipeline Stearns has traded 7 of our top 10 prospects for major league help.

 

....These are the prospects in that top ten that were dealt since 2016

 

Brinson

Ortiz

Grisham

Phillips

Diaz

Dubon

Lara

I'm not sure it says anything about potential Hader trade ideas, but the thing that stands out to me most on this list is that only 1 of those 7 is a pitcher. To me, it seems like Stearns has done a nice job of getting good mileage out of the value these guys had as prospect capital at the time.

[clancyphile]

I agree with GlennBraggsBat. It sure feels like a reboot to clear some contracts (Braun Shaw Guerra etc.) Then if you are in contention at the deadline you still have Hader to dominate from the pen. If not in contention I doubt his value has gone down much from right now and you may have a team or two who are desperate for a relief pitcher. Don't like the idea of not going all in but if we are following the lead of Tampa Bay or Oakland this is how you do it.

 

I think it may also be a way to clear the decks a little for some of the players on the farm at the AA/AAA levels thos year.

 

Rotation prospects: Roegner, Supak, Burnes, File, Francis, Ashby, Bettinger, Jankins, Zavolas

Bullpen prospects: Andrews, Rasmussen, Perdomo, Olczak, Wahl, Feyereisen, D. Brown, Z. Brown

 

Catchers: Nottingham, Feliciano, Henry

Infielders: Wilson, Erceg, Ryan Aguilar (also OF)

Outfielders: Taylor, Hummel (also C), Ray

[RollieTime]

Trade Idea

 

Twins Receive:

LHP Josh Hader

 

Brewers Receive:

3B Miguel Sano (2 years of control)

OF/1B Alex Kirilloff (MLB #15 prospect)

RHP Brusdar Graterol (MLB #53 prospect) OR

RHP Jordan Balazovic (MLB #76 prospect)

OF Trevor Larnach

 

For the Twins, they clear Sano’s ~$6 million to help their pursuit of Donaldson and open up 3B for him to slot right in. They also get Hader for 4 years to solidify the back of their bullpen.

 

For the Brewers, Sano is a big bat to add to our lineup that will fill our 3B hole that we also control for the 2021 season. Kirilloff is the big ticket prospect that showed well in AA in 2019. One of Graterol or Balazovic is included depending on Stearns’ preference (I prefer Balazovic as he seems to have TOR potential and could start in AA this season). If Balazovic has another good first half in 2019, I could see him being a top 40 prospect or higher depending on how dominant he is. Larnach is a nice 4th piece that has a high ceiling and was the Twins’ first round pick in 2018.

[wibadgers23]

I really like your Twins proposal and I think the Brewers and Twins match up pretty well when it comes to team needs, especially if the Twins end up getting Donaldson. I would even be willing to substitute Luis Arraez with Sano if the Twins didn’t want to give up Sano.