Hader trade ideas

[JosephC]

I kind of question all the "best reliever in baseball" thoughts about Hader.

 

Needless to say, there really is no definitive measure for relievers.

 

However, I'll do a 5 minute evaluation over the last two years of ERA, FIP, xFIP data.

 

Went to Fangraphs, selected relief pitchers, combined stats for 2018 and 2019 only, needed a minimum amount of 100 innings pitched for those two seasons.

 

Took the top 20 in each of the three categories, ERA, FIP, xFIP…#1 in each category got 20 points all the way down to 1 point for finishing 20th. Then added up the point totals for all three categories.

 

Here are the results, first number is point total and the next three numbers are the ERA/FIP/xFIP numbers for 2018-2019.

 

1. Kirby Yates, 57, 1.67/1.93/2.45

2. Aroldis Chapman, 51, 2.33/2.19/2.73

3. Felipe Vazquez, 49, 2.22/2.30/2.86

4. Ryan Pressly, 47, 2.44/2.55/2.42

5. Josh Hader, 44, 2.52/2.65/2.20

6. Will Harris, 34, 2.47/2.80/2.91

7. Taylor Rogers, 33, 2.62/2.59/2.89

8. Will Smith, 32, 2.66/2.71/2.75

9. Edwin Diaz, 28, 3.56/2.89/2.35

10. Colin McHugh, 24, 2.21/2.94/3.56

11. Ken Giles, 24, 3.22/2.67/3.00

12. Seth Lugo, 23, 2.50/2.83/3.40

 

As a side note, I think the guys at #6 and #10 are still sitting out there as free agents and the Brewers could use some more bullpen help.

[3and2Fastball]

I definitely do not look at Hader as the best reliever in Baseball. He is a somewhat unique and valuable weapon, though. And he is likely the best “available” reliever in Baseball, which holds plenty of leverage in any negotiation.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I definitely do not look at Hader as the best reliever in Baseball. He is a somewhat unique and valuable weapon, though. And he is likely the best “available” reliever in Baseball, which holds plenty of leverage in any negotiation.

 

It isn’t just “Brewer Goggles” adding legitimacy to that claim, though. The guy has been the recipient of the specific award given to the best reliever in the game two years running. Yes, I realize that there are some metrics out there that may not agree, but winning the actual award is solid enough evidence to continue calling him that.

[3and2Fastball]

I definitely do not look at Hader as the best reliever in Baseball. He is a somewhat unique and valuable weapon, though. And he is likely the best “available” reliever in Baseball, which holds plenty of leverage in any negotiation.

 

It isn’t just “Brewer Goggles” adding legitimacy to that claim, though. The guy has been the recipient of the specific award given to the best reliever in the game two years running. Yes, I realize that there are some metrics out there that may not agree, but winning the actual award is solid enough evidence to continue calling him that.

 

Fair enough!

 

And I’m all for it if it adds to his return value.

[brewcrewdue80]

Who else out there in MLB and provide 3IP 9ks 0hits 0walks? That is why he's the best RP in baseball. Nobody has that ceiling that he brings. and as Joey just said, B2B RP of the year sorta cements that claim. I personally think he threw more Fastballs last season because I suspect on Grandal's defense. Breaking pitches he'd have too much problems catching. I also believe if Hader doesn't get results with just his FB he'd display more of the slider and whatever 3rd pitch if needed. 2years ago he threw 20% sliders. Last year fangraphs has him at 15.4% surprisingly. 3 years ago he threw more changeups at 7.1% vs under 1% each of the last two seasons.

I just don't think he's going to decline anytime soon. He's just bringing what is successful currently and when it struggles he'll adjust his style to return to be successful.

Hader btw is 6'3" That's 6inches taller than Garcia and I almost wonder if Garcia were to face Aaron Judge, would he even be able to throw downward to him without the pitch being below Judge's strikezone? Flat fastballs will get rocked.

 

JoeC I see where you are going but ERA from RPs and that point scale really dings Hader as he finishes 8th in ERA while being best in XFip. 1ER or 1IP may just be the difference from top 3 vs the 8th he finished. Remember these guys are throwing 70ish innings and not 170+.

[sveumrules]

I kind of question all the "best reliever in baseball" thoughts about Hader.

 

Needless to say, there really is no definitive measure for relievers.

 

However, I'll do a 5 minute evaluation over the last two years of ERA, FIP, xFIP data.

 

Went to Fangraphs, selected relief pitchers, combined stats for 2018 and 2019 only, needed a minimum amount of 100 innings pitched for those two seasons.

 

Took the top 20 in each of the three categories, ERA, FIP, xFIP…#1 in each category got 20 points all the way down to 1 point for finishing 20th. Then added up the point totals for all three categories.

 

Here are the results, first number is point total and the next three numbers are the ERA/FIP/xFIP numbers for 2018-2019.

 

1. Kirby Yates, 57, 1.67/1.93/2.45

2. Aroldis Chapman, 51, 2.33/2.19/2.73

3. Felipe Vazquez, 49, 2.22/2.30/2.86

4. Ryan Pressly, 47, 2.44/2.55/2.42

5. Josh Hader, 44, 2.52/2.65/2.20

6. Will Harris, 34, 2.47/2.80/2.91

7. Taylor Rogers, 33, 2.62/2.59/2.89

8. Will Smith, 32, 2.66/2.71/2.75

9. Edwin Diaz, 28, 3.56/2.89/2.35

10. Colin McHugh, 24, 2.21/2.94/3.56

11. Ken Giles, 24, 3.22/2.67/3.00

12. Seth Lugo, 23, 2.50/2.83/3.40

 

As a side note, I think the guys at #6 and #10 are still sitting out there as free agents and the Brewers could use some more bullpen help.

 

The issues I would take with your methodology is that while rate stats are great, you have used the raw numbers as opposed the park/seasonal adjusted numbers. You have also completely excluded volume (both in terms of IP & 2017 numbers) & leverage from your analysis.

 

From 2017-19, among 196 relievers with at least 100 IP, Josh ranks...

 

IP: 204 (13th) | ERA- 57 (7th) | FIP- 63 (9th) | xFIP- 59 (1st) | rWAR: 7.2 (1st) | fWAR: 5.9 (2nd) | WPA: +7.26 (2nd)

 

While their may be a handful of pitchers better than or equal to Hader on a per inning basis, once you include leverage & IP, the only reliever better over the last three years is Vasquez, who is probably never pitching in MLB again.

[RollieTime]

The one thing that I would hate to see is Hader get traded to the Yankees for a package of Garcia, Andujar, and Florial, and then when he only has a year and a half left of control, they turn around and trade him and get 2 top 50 prospects with a couple additional high upside fliers when that’s something people are dismissing right now with 4 full years of control.

Why would DS get fleeced and Cashman make out like a bandit two years later? This just seems irrational to me (I know you are not irrational). Further, why are we basing the value of the return on arbitrary prospect rankings? How did those prospects work out? Were they really the 21st and 69th best prospects? What if DS values say, Garcia, as a top 20 prospect (not that a GM would think in terms of rankings)? Honestly, do we not trust DS over a bunch of under-informed message board junkies (myself included)?

 

It was more of a thinking/speaking out loud moment of “because Yankees”. The market will be depressed while we trade him now and then the Yankees will trade him down the line at the trade deadline in a couple years and get an equal to or better package from a desperate small market team that’s in a bidding war with other playoff hopefuls. It’s just our luck and a scenario I could see playing out for them strictly “because it’s the Yankees”.

 

I have a ton of faith in Stearns and I feel like he will either get the moon (or close to it) or hold onto Hader through the first half and re-evaluate.

[mattyo]

What I think would be realistic returns would be if a deal were to be made. Note that I have amended the Mets trade since it sounds like McNeil was unavailable in another trade.

 

Yankees get - Josh Hader

Brewers get - 3B-Miguel Andujar, RHP-Tommy Kahnle, RHP-Clarke Schmidt, another fringe prospect

 

Dodgers get - Josh Hader

Brewers get - C-Keibert Ruiz, RHP-Tony Gonsolin, 1B-Edwin Rios, another fringe prospect

 

Mets get - Josh Hader

Brewers get - RHP-Edwin Diaz, LHP-Justin Wilson, 3B-Brett Bady, C-Francisco Alvarez, OF-Adrian Hernandez

 

Phillies get - Josh Hader

Brewers get - LHP-Ranger Suarez, RHP-Spencer Howard, SS-Bryson Stott

 

Diamondbacks get - Josh Hader

Brewers get - LHP-Robbie Ray, LHP-Andrew Chaflin, OF-Kristian Robinson

 

Or we could hold onto a crucial piece of our MLB team for a couple more years of our "contending window" and get the same value as these trades when Hader only has a few years of control left.

 

If these are the "realistic" trade options, I'm praying Stearns isn't looking to trade him.

[NievesNoNO]

Who else out there in MLB and provide 3IP 9ks 0hits 0walks? That is why he's the best RP in baseball. Nobody has that ceiling that he brings..........+.

 

 

Agreed. By raw stats there are a handful in the same ballpark but I'm not sure that that same group has the ability to dominate the games best hitters for multiple innings (when he's on). If he can reign in the constancy with the breaking ball, he's got Mariano Rivera type long term potential. There's definitely a fair concern that he falls into just another reliever category over the next couple seasons but there's also a fair chance he's not done improving.

 

I'm confident the Brewers organization has a very good handle on his worth and what he means in big games. They won't settle for anything less than an overwhelming return.

[3and2Fastball]

The most similar pitchers I can think of to Hader are Chris Sale & Andrew Miller, in terms of body type, delivery, and arm whip. Sale being a starter is, to me, clearly on another level.

 

If I had to bet the mortgage on whether Hader would have a similar career to Miller or Rivera, I’d pick Miller every time. Miller was crazy dominant for a few years, and was utilized (especially in the playoffs) similar to how the Brewers use Hader. In a lot of ways Miller was the Hader prototype.

 

That kind of thinking is why I’m fully on board with trading Hader now, or soon, before his value diminishes.

[wntrtxn21]

The Dodger proposal is by far the best. Fits needs the Brewers have with top prospects.

 

None of the players fit a real need. Gonsolin is a SP but not really a #1 or #2. Rios is a 1B where they have Braun and Smoak. Ruiz is a catcher, a position where they just signed Narvaez. The Crew's most immediate need is at 3B. Plus the pen now becomes the worst in all baseball w/o Hader and they still need a thirdbaseman.

[brewerhuman]

The most similar pitchers I can think of to Hader are Chris Sale & Andrew Miller, in terms of body type, delivery, and arm whip. Sale being a starter is, to me, clearly on another level.

 

If I had to bet the mortgage on whether Hader would have a similar career to Miller or Rivera, I’d pick Miller every time. Miller was crazy dominant for a few years, and was utilized (especially in the playoffs) similar to how the Brewers use Hader. In a lot of ways Miller was the Hader prototype.

 

That kind of thinking is why I’m fully on board with trading Hader now, or soon, before his value diminishes.

 

I'm on board with trading Hader now because these are the types of moves you should probably end up having to make to keep your small market team on a pattern of sustained success.

 

I will, however, question how useful our Andrew Miller comparisons (as far as breaking down is concerned) are when Hader is 9 years younger than Miller. I think there is a real chance Hader loses a chunk of his value going forward, but I think the most likely reason will be because that comes in the form of a drop in effectiveness or significance raise in cost.

[wntrtxn21]

What I think would be realistic returns would be if a deal were to be made. Note that I have amended the Mets trade since it sounds like McNeil was unavailable in another trade.

 

Yankees get - Josh Hader

Brewers get - 3B-Miguel Andujar, RHP-Tommy Kahnle, RHP-Clarke Schmidt, another fringe prospect

 

Dodgers get - Josh Hader

Brewers get - C-Keibert Ruiz, RHP-Tony Gonsolin, 1B-Edwin Rios, another fringe prospect

 

Mets get - Josh Hader

Brewers get - RHP-Edwin Diaz, LHP-Justin Wilson, 3B-Brett Bady, C-Francisco Alvarez, OF-Adrian Hernandez

 

Phillies get - Josh Hader

Brewers get - LHP-Ranger Suarez, RHP-Spencer Howard, SS-Bryson Stott

 

Diamondbacks get - Josh Hader

Brewers get - LHP-Robbie Ray, LHP-Andrew Chaflin, OF-Kristian Robinson

 

No to the Mets trade. Wilson is an ok RP, but Diaz was a train wreck and a huge ?. Brett Baty, Hernandez, and Alvarez just finished rookie ball and are no help for at least 3-4 years, and quite possibly never. The trade does nothing to make the Crew better or address any need.

D'Backs: Ray is a one year rental, Chafin a middle inning reliever, and Robinson still in low A ball. Again, it does nothing to improve the Brewers.

Yankees: any trade that features Andujar is no help what-so-ever.

Phillies: Suarez is a reliever that allowed 9.6 hits/9. Another middle inning reliever. Howard is a SP that barely made it to AA. Scott was just drafted and 4-5 years away. None help the Brewers in any way.

[Fear The Chorizo]

In all honesty, what are the odds any player acquired in a Hader trade wind up being equally valuable to the Brewers organization? IMO, dealing Hader this offseason leaves a black hole in the pitching staff that will crater their chances to contend in 2020 - you can't replace what he can do by just plugging in another reliever. I'd be surprised if they get enough value in return to make it worth dealing Hader when they still need a pitcher of his ability to contend right now.

 

It's for that reason that I'd actually prefer to see if they Brewers can work out a contract extension that buys out 1 or maybe 2 years of his free agency (he's still just 25, so that would be his age 30 and 31 seasons in 2024 and 2025). Try to give them some cost certainty in arbitration and spread out a payoff that a healthy Hader would get on the open market should he actually get there after the 2023 season. Offer him $10M a season from 2021-2023, up that to $15M for 2024, and have a mutual option at $15M for 2025. That gives the Brewers what is now the best reliever in baseball through his prime years at a reasonable pricetag, and I think Hader would be wise to consider such an extension rather than bank on health over the next 4 seasons before finally reaching free agency.

[JosephC]

I had not checked the BaseballTradeValue site prior to doing the above...used my own calculations/estimates and in some trades had the Brewers getting slightly better value and in some had the opposition getting slightly better value. All except for the Yankees because I think the Brewers would get less from them because of the way they operate (still sour on the failed Cameron deal).

 

But I did go look now and was surprised the Brewers were the surplus value winners in all five of the projections, something that I wouldn't agree with. Here are the BaseballTradeValue summaries. Note that I just made a fringe prospect = 1 million.

 

Hader = 48.3 million

Dodgers = 70.1 million

Phillies = 58.7 million

Diamondbacks = 55.4 million

Yankees = 52.8 million

Mets = 50.4 million

 

Dodgers are so much more because I think they have values 5-7 million too high on both Ruiz and Gonsolin...and then I included a bit extra from them because they would just be giving up blocked pieces in the deal. I'd have the Yankees number way lower because, while I'd accept the generous number they put on Andujar...Clarke Schmidt's number is way higher than it should be.

[Yount19]

From IncarceratededBob.. (who is pretty good at the rumor game)

 

 

More

MLB Rumors

Source: Brewers had deal on table for Hader with Mets that involved Dom Smith/Matz and two "Highly Regarded" prospects.. Mets turned to Betances deal instead

 

Hader is still on market but price remains somewhat high #Rays #Yankees #Twins

 

 

(He said this was to happen before the SMoak signing...)

[mattyo]

From IncarceratededBob.. (who is pretty good at the rumor game)

 

 

More

MLB Rumors

Source: Brewers had deal on table for Hader with Mets that involved Dom Smith/Matz and two "Highly Regarded" prospects.. Mets turned to Betances deal instead

 

Hader is still on market but price remains somewhat high #Rays #Yankees #Twins

 

 

(He said this was to happen before the SMoak signing...)

 

If this was true, I have no idea why the Mets wouldn't have pulled the trigger. The Mets best ranked prospect is #80 on MLB pipeline, and Smith/Matz is hardly a haul. It's not homerism either, look at the responses to his tweet, echoing the same sentiments.

 

Again, I'm gonna wait for confirmation from a legitimate twitter source (the Rosenthals of the world) before believing anything. I would be shocked if Stearns was locked into a trade like that.

[wallus]

From IncarceratededBob.. (who is pretty good at the rumor game)

 

 

More

MLB Rumors

Source: Brewers had deal on table for Hader with Mets that involved Dom Smith/Matz and two "Highly Regarded" prospects.. Mets turned to Betances deal instead

 

Hader is still on market but price remains somewhat high #Rays #Yankees #Twins

 

 

(He said this was to happen before the SMoak signing...)

 

If this was true, I have no idea why the Mets wouldn't have pulled the trigger. The Mets best ranked prospect is #80 on MLB pipeline, and Smith/Matz is hardly a haul. It's not homerism either, look at the responses to his tweet, echoing the same sentiments.

 

Again, I'm gonna wait for confirmation from a legitimate twitter source (the Rosenthals of the world) before believing anything. I would be shocked if Stearns was locked into a trade like that.

 

Because Betances just cost money and a one year deal? I think what the Mets turned down is more in line with what a Hader trade would look like.

[sveumrules]

I think something like Dom Smith, Steve Matz, one of Gimenez/Mauricio (Mets top 2 SS prospects) and then someone like David Peterson (LH starter, 1st round pick in 2017, should open 2020 in AAA) would have been pretty fair value.

 

Mets probably pulled out because they thought it was too much, many Brewer fans would probably think we sold low since it's more of a quantity package without one big marquee name & therein lies why a Hader deal is unlikely to come together. Teams are going to be hesitant to include that one guy that puts it over the top & makes it a clear win for the Brewers, especially with guys like Will Harris, Collin McHugh & Daniel Hudson still on the market that require no prospect capital to obtain.

[mattyo]

From IncarceratededBob.. (who is pretty good at the rumor game)

 

 

More

MLB Rumors

Source: Brewers had deal on table for Hader with Mets that involved Dom Smith/Matz and two "Highly Regarded" prospects.. Mets turned to Betances deal instead

 

Hader is still on market but price remains somewhat high #Rays #Yankees #Twins

 

 

(He said this was to happen before the SMoak signing...)

 

If this was true, I have no idea why the Mets wouldn't have pulled the trigger. The Mets best ranked prospect is #80 on MLB pipeline, and Smith/Matz is hardly a haul. It's not homerism either, look at the responses to his tweet, echoing the same sentiments.

 

Again, I'm gonna wait for confirmation from a legitimate twitter source (the Rosenthals of the world) before believing anything. I would be shocked if Stearns was locked into a trade like that.

 

Because Betances just cost money and a one year deal? I think what the Mets turned down is more in line with what a Hader trade would look like.

 

Betances is also coming off two of the worst possible injuries for pitchers to have, and might not even be ready when the season begins. Betances is a complete question mark and Josh Hader is coming off back to back reliever of the year awards.

[patrickgpe]

totally agree, Smith is fine, but Matz isn't the type of pitcher you want to headline the trade. He is only controllable for 2 seasons and has been very average of late.

[RollieTime]

With what’s being rumored from some of these random accounts, whether any of them have any legit sources remains to be seen, but rushing to trade Hader now probably isn’t the best decision for the packages being listed.

 

In my opinion, if these are the best offers we can get right now, hold onto Hader until July and let the bidding war begin. Hope that Hader continues his dominance and that he doesn’t struggle in July when talks really start heating up. Wait for a team to make a rash decision that hasn’t been competitive for a while and is trying to compete (White Sox, Angels, Padres, the Reds even) or a team like the Dodgers having their entire bullpen fall apart and come crawling to us knowing they need massive upgrades with the clock ticking and restless fans starting to get on them even more.

 

Desperate teams lead to big returns. The offseason is normally not a time where teams make desperate moves. Wait until mid season when teams can see the finish line and can smell the postseason.

[MNBrew]

From IncarceratededBob.. (who is pretty good at the rumor game)

 

 

More

MLB Rumors

Source: Brewers had deal on table for Hader with Mets that involved Dom Smith/Matz and two "Highly Regarded" prospects.. Mets turned to Betances deal instead

 

Hader is still on market but price remains somewhat high #Rays #Yankees #Twins

 

 

(He said this was to happen before the SMoak signing...)

 

If this was true, I have no idea why the Mets wouldn't have pulled the trigger. The Mets best ranked prospect is #80 on MLB pipeline, and Smith/Matz is hardly a haul. It's not homerism either, look at the responses to his tweet, echoing the same sentiments.

 

Again, I'm gonna wait for confirmation from a legitimate twitter source (the Rosenthals of the world) before believing anything. I would be shocked if Stearns was locked into a trade like that.

 

Because Betances just cost money and a one year deal? I think what the Mets turned down is more in line with what a Hader trade would look like.

Read the wording carefully.... Nothing says which team turned it down. It well could be the Brewers who said that that offer wasn't enough and the Mets wouldn't up the offer.

 

In the end, there wasn't closure on a deal and the Mets chose to go after Betances instead, either because they were more comfortable with Betances' price or because they wouldn't/couldn't meet the Brewers' price.

[RollieTime]

Yeah, with the wording, it sounds like the Brewers had that offer on the table from the Mets and they ended up pivoting. If the rumors are true, I would take it as Stearns wasn’t satisfied with that return and was asking for more. The Mets decided to go elsewhere.

[wibadgers23]

Could have been that the Brewers wanted McNeil and the Mets refused to include him so the deal fell apart.