Hader trade ideas

[paul253]

The last thing you want to do is trade your best players.

 

Milwaukee has to recycle it’s talent to compete. They can’t sign top free agents and it’s looking like they won’t even sign middle of the road free agent starting pitchers. Remember a few years ago when the Brewers were desperately trying to win and held onto the best players for awhile, guys like Lucroy and Gomez? Did eventually trading them kill this team? No, it got them to where they are today. Had they hung onto those guys they would have continued their slow descent to mediocrity.

 

Trading Hader is not going to kill us and it’s not even remotely similar to trading Yelich.

[PeaveyFury]

Posted this on the Trade Simulator (yeah i know...) and got some good feedback. What do you guys think?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18516/

 

Astros: Miguel Andujar & Domingo German

 

Brewers: Carlos Correa, Deivi Garcia, & J.A. Happ

 

Yankees: Josh Hader

 

The only team I'm not sure about on this is the Astros, but I think this is a pretty good deal overall.

[Oxy]

 

I love this narrative that's been created within MKE. He had 2 spells of roughly 5 games where he gave up a few HRs.

 

He was a 2.6 ERA in 75 innings. Garrett Cole was a 2.5. Maybe the leagues figuring him out too.

 

"Full year of Rasmussen and Suter in the pen could probably get close to it."

 

Cuz it's just that easy right?

 

It's not just the pure numbers, it's the entire profile that has me worried. It's one pitch from a goofy, gangly delivery from a funny angle. He throws hard, but not completely overpowering by any means. If his slider becomes just a hair snappier with a little better control or he uses his changup more effectively then I'll completely change my tune but right now I have a difficult time seeing Hader maintain his dominance.

 

If he is traded to the AL he is FAR more likely to continue dominating as well, since they've barely seen him over there. If I were a contending team in the A.L I'd offer the Brewers a big package to get him and I'd be happy to have him. He just seems like a perfect trade candidate for everybody involved.

[RollieTime]

Here’s a little bit of a different trade with the Dodgers:

 

Dodgers Receive:

LHP Josh Hader

 

Brewers Receive:

3B Justin Turner

OF Alex Verdugo

C Keibert Ruiz

3B/1B Edwin Rios

 

The Brewers fill their void at third base by bringing in Turner and putting him behind Yelich in the order.

 

Verdugo comes over with 5 (or 6?) years of control and is Braun’s replacement in the outfield for years to come.

 

C Keibert Ruiz comes over and is hopefully the catcher of the future for Milwaukee.

 

Edwin Rios is arguably MLB ready and could possibly be the first baseman for us this season.

 

I think this is a creative way of the Dodgers getting out of Turner’s contract (which they wanted to do earlier in the offseason I know), giving us our big bat behind Yelich, we bring in a highly regarded young outfielder from a team that is already crowded in the outfield, a great young catcher on the cusp of the MLB who is also blocked by a top prospect, and a third base/first base guy who is ready to contribute at the big league level.

 

This is a way that the Dodgers can keep their top 2 prospects while moving ones that are already blocked by all-star talents already on their roster. I do hold out hope for someone like Lux in a return, but a package like this would probably be enough for me to pull the trigger. Thoughts?

[reillymcshane]

Here’s a little bit of a different trade with the Dodgers:

 

Dodgers Receive:

LHP Josh Hader

 

Brewers Receive:

3B Justin Turner

OF Alex Verdugo

C Keibert Ruiz

3B/1B Edwin Rios

 

The Brewers fill their void at third base by bringing in Turner and putting him behind Yelich in the order.

 

Verdugo comes over with 5 (or 6?) years of control and is Braun’s replacement in the outfield for years to come.

 

C Keibert Ruiz comes over and is hopefully the catcher of the future for Milwaukee.

 

Edwin Rios is arguably MLB ready and could possibly be the first baseman for us this season.

 

I think this is a creative way of the Dodgers getting out of Turner’s contract (which they wanted to do earlier in the offseason I know), giving us our big bat behind Yelich, we bring in a highly regarded young outfielder from a team that is already crowded in the outfield, a great young catcher on the cusp of the MLB who is also blocked by a top prospect, and a third base/first base guy who is ready to contribute at the big league level.

 

This is a way that the Dodgers can keep their top 2 prospects while moving ones that are already blocked by all-star talents already on their roster. I do hold out hope for someone like Lux in a return, but a package like this would probably be enough for me to pull the trigger. Thoughts?

 

I would do this, but I doubt the Dodgers would. It's a big overpay on their part (I think). Now, I understand that to get Hader they are going to have to overpay. But I think it's just too much. It would certainly be a nice haul for the Brewers.

 

The Brewers could consider taking back Joe Kelly - who is a mediocre reliever at this point. But he's owed $30M over the next three seasons. I wouldn't want to pay all of that - but it's a starting point if we need to take more cash off the Dodgers hands.

[TJseven7]

 

I love this narrative that's been created within MKE. He had 2 spells of roughly 5 games where he gave up a few HRs.

 

He was a 2.6 ERA in 75 innings. Garrett Cole was a 2.5. Maybe the leagues figuring him out too.

 

"Full year of Rasmussen and Suter in the pen could probably get close to it."

 

Cuz it's just that easy right?

 

It's not just the pure numbers, it's the entire profile that has me worried. It's one pitch from a goofy, gangly delivery from a funny angle. He throws hard, but not completely overpowering by any means. If his slider becomes just a hair snappier with a little better control or he uses his changup more effectively then I'll completely change my tune but right now I have a difficult time seeing Hader maintain his dominance.

 

If he is traded to the AL he is FAR more likely to continue dominating as well, since they've barely seen him over there. If I were a contending team in the A.L I'd offer the Brewers a big package to get him and I'd be happy to have him. He just seems like a perfect trade candidate for everybody involved.

 

I get the concern over his 1 pitch profile and his wild nature. Thing is the guy had a spell where people started to say that the league figured him out. Then he mowed people down for another a much longer stretch. He got wild again around the playoffs. His extension to the plate, release point, and velocity makes for one amazingly destructive pitch. Any gained control, especially on the slider would make his incredible results that much more dominating. If the slider gains more movement same story. He's already dominant and he has a few ways he can improve. I'd bank on that over people figuring him out. When he's on with his FB location alone he makes the best of the best look stupid.

 

You have to understand what he is and let him go 1 when he's off and let him ride when he's on. Don't make him a closer and protect him from his off days and he'll be that much better. It's not the opponents figuring him out, we all see when he's on and when he's off. He gets tagged in sprees when he is off. 1 batter in we know where he is on any given day.

 

The only way I'd consider dealing him is if MKE got back a player of his equal caliber plus pieces. You don't trade a stud for pieces. You don't trade a stud pitcher for 1bs 3bs and LFs. Those are the easy cheap spots to fill. Even if he's 5 war and you get 4 pieces who add up to 7 WAR you still lose out because you don't have 1 piece that pulls 5 by himself.

 

It's just a bad idea. It's even worse if he shows any improvement.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

OR the team could be projecting regression as more likely than improvement and combining that with a rising salary and declining years of control, think this is the most opportune time to trade him. The number of credible reports that the Brewers are fielding offers for him is a decent clue. It doesn't mean they're going to give him away for peanuts though. It doesn't even mean they trade him at all if their price isn't met. Though I bet their price is lower than many here want it to be. As valuable and irreplaceable as people want to claim Hader to be, he put up the same WAR as Zach Davies last year (2.9). In 2018 when he was at his most dominant, his WAR was 2.1. Not really sure where you're pulling this 5 WAR from. Unless you're combining two years in which case the return would have to be given the same consideration over two seasons.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

OR the team could be projecting regression as more likely than improvement and combining that with a rising salary and declining years of control, think this is the most opportune time to trade him. The number of credible reports that the Brewers are fielding offers for him is a decent clue. It doesn't mean they're going to give him away for peanuts though. It doesn't even mean they trade him at all if their price isn't met. Though I bet their price is lower than many here want it to be. As valuable and irreplaceable as people want to claim Hader to be, he put up the same WAR as Zach Davies last year (2.9). In 2018 when he was at his most dominant, his WAR was 2.1. Not really sure where you're pulling this 5 WAR from. Unless you're combining two years in which case the return would have to be given the same consideration over two seasons.

 

Hasn't it been kind of understood that WAR is a pretty terrible, or at least inefficient way to judge reliever value? I know there are teams out there who don't value relief pitchers very highly. In this particular case, though, all it's going to take is finding one who does.

[JohnBriggs12]

The last thing you want to do is trade your best players.

 

Milwaukee has to recycle it’s talent to compete. They can’t sign top free agents and it’s looking like they won’t even sign middle of the road free agent starting pitchers. Remember a few years ago when the Brewers were desperately trying to win and held onto the best players for awhile, guys like Lucroy and Gomez? Did eventually trading them kill this team? No, it got them to where they are today. Had they hung onto those guys they would have continued their slow descent to mediocrity.

 

Trading Hader is not going to kill us and it’s not even remotely similar to trading Yelich.

 

Hader's controllable through 2023. He's not comparable to Gomez or Lucroy's situation. I'd hold on to him for 2 more years and they can still get a haul.

[BuckyBrewer61]

The last thing you want to do is trade your best players.

 

Milwaukee has to recycle it’s talent to compete. They can’t sign top free agents and it’s looking like they won’t even sign middle of the road free agent starting pitchers. Remember a few years ago when the Brewers were desperately trying to win and held onto the best players for awhile, guys like Lucroy and Gomez? Did eventually trading them kill this team? No, it got them to where they are today. Had they hung onto those guys they would have continued their slow descent to mediocrity.

 

Trading Hader is not going to kill us and it’s not even remotely similar to trading Yelich.

 

Hader's controllable through 2023. He's not comparable to Gomez or Lucroy's situation. I'd hold on to him for 2 more years and they can still get a haul.

 

You assume he’ll still warrant a “haul” in two years. I’d guess he’ll still be good then, but maybe not. And he certainly will have less value given less years of control. But we’ve seen repeatedly the Brewers failing to sell high on their assets over the years - Aramis Ramirez, Casey McGehee, even Lucroy and Gomez as mentioned were traded after their value peaked.

 

People see a potential Hader trade as a sign of a rebuild, I believe management sees it as a reload. Maximize value at its peak and restock on controllable assets before you lose the chance. And if you don’t get great value offered in return, then they’ll happily keep him. It’s a win-win.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

OR the team could be projecting regression as more likely than improvement and combining that with a rising salary and declining years of control, think this is the most opportune time to trade him. The number of credible reports that the Brewers are fielding offers for him is a decent clue. It doesn't mean they're going to give him away for peanuts though. It doesn't even mean they trade him at all if their price isn't met. Though I bet their price is lower than many here want it to be. As valuable and irreplaceable as people want to claim Hader to be, he put up the same WAR as Zach Davies last year (2.9). In 2018 when he was at his most dominant, his WAR was 2.1. Not really sure where you're pulling this 5 WAR from. Unless you're combining two years in which case the return would have to be given the same consideration over two seasons.

 

Hasn't it been kind of understood that WAR is a pretty terrible, or at least inefficient way to judge reliever value? I know there are teams out there who don't value relief pitchers very highly. In this particular case, though, all it's going to take is finding one who does.

 

It has to be tied primarily to innings pitched. And there is some truth to that. How valuable would a Hader be on the Orioles? It would be awesome to have him lock down 2 innings every 2-3 games. But what good is it if the team gives up 25 runs in the other 16-25 innings?

 

You also have to factor that if Hader is traded, he can be somewhat replaced. His innings don't automatically go to a stiff. And when you're topping out at 80 innings, the difference between Hader and his replacement isn't nearly what people dream it to be. That's not to say there's no dropoff but it's more negligible than people realize and can be made up by improvement elsewhere on the roster.

 

Think back to the dark ages of Brewers baseball. They always seemed to unearth a strong bullpen. But how far did that get them? Hader would have to be suitably replaced, and nothing is easy on a budget. But bullpen help is easier to find than an .800 ops bat or an innings eating, 3 times through starting pitcher. The way the Brewers tweak deliveries, change repertoires, and turn failed starters into lock down relievers, they probably feel confident they can find a suitable replacement for his innings if he's moved. It would still be a risk, but weighed against the possible return and the potential declining value of Hader, they may have calculated now is the opportune time to come out ahead by moving him.

[clancyphile]

Hader's controllable through 2023. He's not comparable to Gomez or Lucroy's situation. I'd hold on to him for 2 more years and they can still get a haul.

 

You assume he’ll still warrant a “haul” in two years. I’d guess he’ll still be good then, but maybe not. And he certainly will have less value given less years of control. But we’ve seen repeatedly the Brewers failing to sell high on their assets over the years - Aramis Ramirez, Casey McGehee, even Lucroy and Gomez as mentioned were traded after their value peaked.

 

People see a potential Hader trade as a sign of a rebuild, I believe management sees it as a reload. Maximize value at its peak and restock on controllable assets before you lose the chance. And if you don’t get great value offered in return, then they’ll happily keep him. It’s a win-win.

 

In a way, both of you are right. This is a win-win.

 

There is no pressing need to sell Hader. That said, it doesn't hurt to try and figure out what we'd want for him.

 

Somewhat proven, controllable talent who could benefit from Miller Park - like Jeff McNeil? Young starting pitchers with TOR talent? Prospects to reload the farm system? The right sort of package would help the Brewers a lot. We can be assured that Stearns will not pull the trigger without someone backing up the dump truck.

[Devinep]

Posted this on the Trade Simulator (yeah i know...) and got some good feedback. What do you guys think?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18516/

 

Astros: Miguel Andujar & Domingo German

 

Brewers: Carlos Correa, Deivi Garcia, & J.A. Happ

 

Yankees: Josh Hader

 

That actually looks pretty close for all teams.

[brewerfan82]

Hader's controllable through 2023. He's not comparable to Gomez or Lucroy's situation. I'd hold on to him for 2 more years and they can still get a haul.

 

You assume he’ll still warrant a “haul” in two years. I’d guess he’ll still be good then, but maybe not. And he certainly will have less value given less years of control. But we’ve seen repeatedly the Brewers failing to sell high on their assets over the years - Aramis Ramirez, Casey McGehee, even Lucroy and Gomez as mentioned were traded after their value peaked.

Not to mention if Hader continues pitching like this, he may be making close to $30M over his final two years of arbitration. His trade value could drop very quickly. Now that said, I could see the argument for holding onto him until the trade deadline at least. If he's pitching lights out the first half of the season again, that's when it seems like playoff contenders really go nutty for relievers and you might get something bonkers in return. Of course, if the Brewers are playing well, it would be tough to let him go at that point for the non-MLB ready players you're likely to get at that point as well.

[clancyphile]

Not to mention if Hader continues pitching like this, he may be making close to $30M over his final two years of arbitration. His trade value could drop very quickly. Now that said, I could see the argument for holding onto him until the trade deadline at least. If he's pitching lights out the first half of the season again, that's when it seems like playoff contenders really go nutty for relievers and you might get something bonkers in return. Of course, if the Brewers are playing well, it would be tough to let him go at that point for the non-MLB ready players you're likely to get at that point as well.

 

I think the Brewers should be listening to offers - they don't HAVE to trade Hader now - I think they can get other teams to back up the dump truck through the 2021 season's trading deadline. That is a LONG time. Hader doesn't turn 27 until around Opening Day 2021.

 

Now, I would be looking to buy out Hader's arby years, and maybe get some options for the first year or two of free agency. Try to limit the loss of trade value. Maybe 5 years, $45 million guaranteed ($5 million bonus, $7 million/year for five years, team option year 6 of $9 million or a $5 million buyout, team option year 7 of $10 million or a $2.5 million buyout).

[billymac]

I would hold out for Luis Severino or Gleyber Torres if dealing with the Yankees. Does Hader and Urias for Torres even start a discussion?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I would hold out for Luis Severino or Gleyber Torres if dealing with the Yankees. Does Hader and Urias for Torres even start a discussion?

 

I love Hader, and think his value is huge. But no.

[mattyo]

I would hold out for Luis Severino or Gleyber Torres if dealing with the Yankees. Does Hader and Urias for Torres even start a discussion?

 

The Yankees aren't giving up value for Hader to improve their MLB team if in return they have to give up a main piece of that MLB team. Thus the moaning in here about lack of a match with the Yankees. They are not a good trade partner for us.

[PeaveyFury]

Brewers/Yankees 'continue to talk' per Heyman:

 

 

He says the Yanks 'have the players' to do a deal, but I personally am less sure....

[clancyphile]

Brewers/Yankees 'continue to talk' per Heyman:

 

 

He says the Yanks 'have the players' to do a deal, but I personally am less sure....

 

I don't see it with the Yankees.

 

The Mets, OTOH, have players I like.

[mattyo]

Dear god, Yankees fans are absolutely insufferable. Do not read the replies to that tweet.

[RollieTime]

Brewers/Yankees 'continue to talk' per Heyman:

 

 

He says the Yanks 'have the players' to do a deal, but I personally am less sure....

 

I don’t see how the Yankees could get it done either. They would need to include both Deivi Garcia and Jasson Dominguez just for the start of the package. But they don’t really have much else that would really interest me off of their MLB roster that’s realistic in a trade like this.

 

It would be fantastic if they could somehow get Gleyber Torres though. I wouldn’t totally rule it out if they could pull off a massive trade like that. There would be more pieces involved on both sides to work that out though. Yankees would definitely include Happ to help bring the price down. There would be more to the trade, but something like that.

 

I really don’t see us lining up on a trade unless someone like Torres, Judge, or Severino (if he is fully healthy) is part of the return.

 

I just don’t see Hader being moved unless an All-Star caliber player is coming back in the deal that helps in 2020, not multiple years down the road. You’re stepping up if you want the most dominant reliever in the game for 4 years for so cheap who arguably had one of the most dominant 2+ year stretches for a reliever the game has seen. It won’t be for a bunch of scraps.

[PeaveyFury]

Brewers/Yankees 'continue to talk' per Heyman:

 

 

He says the Yanks 'have the players' to do a deal, but I personally am less sure....

 

I don't see it with the Yankees.

 

The Mets, OTOH, have players I like.

 

Honestly clancy, I agree completely. I think the Mets and Brewers match up very well, even if it's just a smaller, non-Hader deal.

[umpref]

Say we sign garcia. Hader, Cain to Mets for Thor, Nimmo, Smith. Make hard push to sign Donaldson. If you can’t sign Donaldson expand trade to Lowrie

[RollieTime]

Say we sign garcia. Hader, Cain to Mets for Thor, Nimmo, Smith. Make hard push to sign Donaldson. If you can’t sign Donaldson expand trade to Lowrie

 

Why do people want to go all in on a 2 year run with Thor instead of getting a haul of young talent and having a lengthy window instead of selling off after 1 and 1/2 or 2 years? I would rather get a headliner like McNeil that you’ll have for 5 years and build a lengthy window instead of putting all our eggs in one basket on a 2 year run and that’s it.

 

McNeil

Cain/Urias

Yelich

Hiura

Narvaez

Garcia

Braun

Urias/Cain

P

 

And to think we would have our 1-5 locked up for at least 3 years. Plus McNeil, Hiura, Urias, Woodruff, and Lauer controlled beyond that. Gives plenty of time for other moves and draft picks to make their way up and be long time contributors as well.

 

I know building a lengthy competitive window isn’t something we are used to, but why destroy our chance of having that when it’s the first time we can actually build a true long time window of being competitive?

 

If you want an ace, work on getting Severino then for 4 years. But Thor as the headliner for 2 years? No thank you. At least if we aren’t doing anything 2 years from now, Yelich and Severino can be moved and we wouldn’t even need to rebuild. If you get Thor and ride it out for 2 years, you only have 1 year of going for it with Yelich or trading him off and only netting the return from him and that’s it.

 

Severino would make way more sense in my opinion.