Hader trade ideas

[Brewcrewin07]

I have no problem with taking the best return, but I totally disagree with the notion that we won't be competing in 2020 without Hader. We wouldn't be making that kind of move if we really believed that.

 

There are just too many unknown variables to say that. Maybe Knebel returns to form after surgery and replaces Hader's production. Maybe Burnes becomes a bullpen ace. Maybe Wahl becomes a stud in the pen. Maybe we sign or trade for a couple relievers yet.

There are far too many other factors at play to say that trading a reliever automatically takes you out of contention. In 2017, we just missed the playoffs after a great season, a lot in part because of the performance of our ace, Jimmy Nelson. In 2018 we lost him and got even better because we made up the production elsewhere.

 

That's a lot of maybe's to have to count on though. If even one goes bad, it could be disastrous. That's the thing, when you have stars, you have to "go for it". The window is so small, you have to take advantage of it while it's available. Why so many applaud the Brewers approach(though it's worked to this point), of signing guys and hoping the have a bounce back etc, is mind boggling to me. It's going to work some of the time, but it's definitely not a sustainable strategy. Look no further than Jhoulys Chacin. The Brewers got one really good year out of him, and in year two..he reverted back to being...well Jhoulys Chacin.

 

Look at the "gamble" Stearns took in going with the three young arms in the rotation last year...yeah that didn't work so well, did it?? Hader is a known quantity, at least to this point he has been, why the rush to trade a guy and HOPE to make up the production elsewhere??

[adambr2]

I have no problem with taking the best return, but I totally disagree with the notion that we won't be competing in 2020 without Hader. We wouldn't be making that kind of move if we really believed that.

 

There are just too many unknown variables to say that. Maybe Knebel returns to form after surgery and replaces Hader's production. Maybe Burnes becomes a bullpen ace. Maybe Wahl becomes a stud in the pen. Maybe we sign or trade for a couple relievers yet.

There are far too many other factors at play to say that trading a reliever automatically takes you out of contention. In 2017, we just missed the playoffs after a great season, a lot in part because of the performance of our ace, Jimmy Nelson. In 2018 we lost him and got even better because we made up the production elsewhere.

 

That's a lot of maybe's to have to count on though. If even one goes bad, it could be disastrous. That's the thing, when you have stars, you have to "go for it". The window is so small, you have to take advantage of it while it's available. Why so many applaud the Brewers approach(though it's worked to this point), of signing guys and hoping the have a bounce back etc, is mind boggling to me. It's going to work some of the time, but it's definitely not a sustainable strategy. Look no further than Jhoulys Chacin. The Brewers got one really good year out of him, and in year two..he reverted back to being...well Jhoulys Chacin.

 

Look at the "gamble" Stearns took in going with the three young arms in the rotation last year...yeah that didn't work so well, did it?? Hader is a known quantity, at least to this point he has been, why the rush to trade a guy and HOPE to make up the production elsewhere??

 

They might not. They might keep him. I would be fine with that too. No reason we can't revisit this at this time next year, it's unlikely his value will have changed much.

 

I'm not in the camp of " trade him because his value might never be higher". It's got to be the right offer.

[Montezuma]

I am thinking their is a MLB team in the wings talking to the Brewers...

[paul253]

If you have any potential matches with organizations and what they have to offer, please let us know

 

I proposed earlier but I think most people missed but Hader straight up for Mackenzie Gore of SD. SD seems to be a win now mode and they have a top farm system, maybe the top farm system so losing a guy like Gore wouldn’t kill them.

 

If they absolutely refuse to move Gore then maybe Luis Patino + (Ryan Weathers?)

 

Both Gore and Patino would likely start in Biloxi but could easily be in Milwaukee by the end of the year.

[clancyphile]

I have no problem with taking the best return, but I totally disagree with the notion that we won't be competing in 2020 without Hader. We wouldn't be making that kind of move if we really believed that.

 

There are just too many unknown variables to say that. Maybe Knebel returns to form after surgery and replaces Hader's production. Maybe Burnes becomes a bullpen ace. Maybe Wahl becomes a stud in the pen. Maybe we sign or trade for a couple relievers yet.

 

There are far too many other factors at play to say that trading a reliever automatically takes you out of contention. In 2017, we just missed the playoffs after a great season, a lot in part because of the performance of our ace, Jimmy Nelson. In 2018 we lost him and got even better because we made up the production elsewhere.

 

Exactly. Rasmussen is just as capable of filling the multi-inning relief role as Hader. So is Suter. There are Clayton Andrews and Quintin Torres-Costa, coming off an impressive AFL. Don't forget Freddy Peralta, either.

 

If Knebel comes back, that gives the Crew a back end of Knebel, Suter, Rasmussen, Peralta. Then add others like Wahl, Black, Yardley, maybe Burnes and Brown get back on track...

 

Then we still have a superb pen, but also have the return from Hader.

[sveumrules]

Exactly. Rasmussen is just as capable of filling the multi-inning relief role as Hader. So is Suter. There are Clayton Andrews and Quintin Torres-Costa, coming off an impressive AFL. Don't forget Freddy Peralta, either.

 

Over the last three years Hader ranks 2nd in fWAR (5.9), 1st in rWAR (7.2), 2nd in WPA (7.26), 7th in ERA- (57), 9th in FIP- (63) & 1st in K% (44.6).

 

None of Rasmussen, Andrews, QTC or any other reliever in all of baseball, really, are likely to come anywhere close to replicating his production.

 

Suter's 18 relief innings last year were amazing & integral to our success, but if he pitches all of 2020 out of the bullpen, the odds of him putting up 75+ innings with ERA-/FIP- marks around 60 & WAR/WPA marks of 2.5 (AKA an average Hader season), are extremely low.

 

Would be beyond cool if it happened, but I certainly would bet the under.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Exactly. Rasmussen is just as capable of filling the multi-inning relief role as Hader. So is Suter. There are Clayton Andrews and Quintin Torres-Costa, coming off an impressive AFL. Don't forget Freddy Peralta, either.

 

Over the last three years Hader ranks 2nd in fWAR (5.9), 1st in rWAR (7.2), 2nd in WPA (7.26), 7th in ERA- (57), 9th in FIP- (63) & 1st in K% (44.6).

 

None of Rasmussen, Andrews, QTC or any other reliever in all of baseball, really, are likely to come anywhere close to replicating his production.

 

Suter's 18 relief innings last year were amazing & integral to our success, but if he pitches all of 2020 out of the bullpen, the odds of him putting up 75+ innings with ERA-/FIP- marks around 60 & WAR/WPA marks of 2.5 (AKA an average Hader season), are extremely low.

 

Would be beyond cool if it happened, but I certainly would bet the under.

 

Yeah, picking up WAR elsewhere, such as the lineup, in the event Hader is moved seems much more plausible than expecting the existing pieces of a potential pen to pick up his slack. Doesn't mean they can't put together an effective relief squad, they'll just have to go about it a bit differently.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Distributing Hader's "WAR" to other places in the lineup sounds nice but it is not possible during an actual MLB gameplay.

 

The psychological effect that Hader's presence in the back of our bullpen has on opposing teams and managers cannot be replaced.

 

Opposing teams literally get demoralized if they are trailing the Milwaukee Brewers past the 7th Inning of any given game.

 

The hitters in the 6th and 7th are thinking "we need to make something happen now or else we are gonna lose this game."

 

If we simply transfer Hader's "WAR" via trade to a shiny new thirdbaseman, it will not make the Milwaukee Brewers as good of a team, and not nearly as intiminating.

 

Jeff McNeil does not strike the fear into any opponent's hearts, unless of course, maybe if clancyphile is their manager.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Eagerly awaiting the statistic that accurately measures "intimidation".

 

And furthermore, I'd love to measure the offset of lost intimidation versus say a more well rounded lineup that scores more runs.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Lol

 

If stats measured everything important about evaluating baseball players than MLB teams would certainly be able to hit on all their draft picks.

 

 

This probably explains why I didn't get drafted despite my outstanding "WAR" in high school.

[82brewcrew82]

Distributing Hader's "WAR" to other places in the lineup sounds nice but it is not possible during an actual MLB gameplay.

 

The psychological effect that Hader's presence in the back of our bullpen has on opposing teams and managers cannot be replaced.

 

Opposing teams literally get demoralized if they are trailing the Milwaukee Brewers past the 7th Inning of any given game.

 

The hitters in the 6th and 7th are thinking "we need to make something happen now or else we are gonna lose this game."

 

If we simply transfer Hader's "WAR" via trade to a shiny new thirdbaseman, it will not make the Milwaukee Brewers as good of a team, and not nearly as intiminating.

 

Jeff McNeil does not strike the fear into any opponent's hearts, unless of course, maybe if clancyphile is their manager.

I don't think any of this is true and if you do, I believe you have severely overestimated your ability to interpret the mindset of a professional athlete. I mean, do the opposing players forget to be intimidated when Hader blows games? The guy is a good pitcher but so are lots of other guys and I doubt most hitters are intimidated by any of them or they wouldn't be where they are. A rising tide raises all ships and improving the team is improving the team. The rest of that is simply opinion.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Lol

 

If stats measured everything important about evaluating baseball players than MLB teams would certainly be able to hit on all their draft picks.

 

That would only work if clancy's belief that stats at any level and age translate to the same success rate at higher levels and the major leagues.

 

It wasn't me trying to argue for a mythical factor called intimidation. That was you. But if we want to lend it any basis in reality, then we'd have to ponder how a more formidable lineup could intimidate opposing pitchers.

 

There are many ways to achieve a desired result. Trading Hader won't automatically make the Brewers better, just like it's not guaranteed to make them worse. Their objective should be to come out of any Hader trade with a team that on the whole is better.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Josh Hader has been a huge key to the Milwaukee Brewers making the playoffs in 2018 and 2019.

 

Without him, we don't make the playoffs in either season, IMO.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Josh Hader has been a huge key to the Milwaukee Brewers making the playoffs in 2018 and 2019.

 

Without him, we don't make the playoffs in either season, IMO.

 

That's great and I agree but says nothing about 2020. His absence from the Brewers roster would not be due to retirement or death, God forbid. His absence on the 2020 roster should mean reinforcements elsewhere on the roster. If not, then he shouldn't be moved. A Hader trade should bring win now pieces to bolster weaknesses, not prospects.

[JosephC]

Distributing Hader's "WAR" to other places in the lineup sounds nice but it is not possible during an actual MLB gameplay.

 

The psychological effect that Hader's presence in the back of our bullpen has on opposing teams and managers cannot be replaced.

 

Opposing teams literally get demoralized if they are trailing the Milwaukee Brewers past the 7th Inning of any given game.

 

The hitters in the 6th and 7th are thinking "we need to make something happen now or else we are gonna lose this game."

 

If we simply transfer Hader's "WAR" via trade to a shiny new thirdbaseman, it will not make the Milwaukee Brewers as good of a team, and not nearly as intiminating.

 

Jeff McNeil does not strike the fear into any opponent's hearts, unless of course, maybe if clancyphile is their manager.

I don't think any of this is true and if you do, I believe you have severely overestimated your ability to interpret the mindset of a professional athlete. I mean, do the opposing players forget to be intimidated when Hader blows games? The guy is a good pitcher but so are lots of other guys and I doubt most hitters are intimidated by any of them or they wouldn't be where they are. A rising tide raises all ships and improving the team is improving the team. The rest of that is simply opinion.

 

Last year there were 31 MLB pitchers that had 14 saves or more. I would have just gone with 30 MLB pitchers, 1 for each team, but there was a 3 way tie for 29th which pushed the number of pitchers included to 31.

 

Those 31 players saved 789 games and blew 147 save opportunities. So they were successful 84.3% of the time.

 

Josh Hader saved 37 games and blew 7 save opportunities. So he was successful 84.1% of the time.

 

Out of the 31 players with 14 or more saves, Hader finished 17th in save percentage.

 

Why would an opposing hitter be intimidated? Because Hader might strike them out? I don't think the modern day MLB hitter worries all that much about that. Just because Hader is in a game late, it does not mean the game is over and evidenced by the numbers above.

[Roderick]

 

Over the last three years Hader ranks 2nd in fWAR (5.9), 1st in rWAR (7.2), 2nd in WPA (7.26), 7th in ERA- (57), 9th in FIP- (63) & 1st in K% (44.6).

 

None of Rasmussen, Andrews, QTC or any other reliever in all of baseball, really, are likely to come anywhere close to replicating his production.

 

The thing is, Hader 2020 may not replicate that production either. There was something last year where there was some level of him getting figured out or him tiring or a tell on his pitch.

 

If we get a good package, I am all for trading him.

[clancyphile]

Exactly. Rasmussen is just as capable of filling the multi-inning relief role as Hader. So is Suter. There are Clayton Andrews and Quintin Torres-Costa, coming off an impressive AFL. Don't forget Freddy Peralta, either.

 

Over the last three years Hader ranks 2nd in fWAR (5.9), 1st in rWAR (7.2), 2nd in WPA (7.26), 7th in ERA- (57), 9th in FIP- (63) & 1st in K% (44.6).

 

None of Rasmussen, Andrews, QTC or any other reliever in all of baseball, really, are likely to come anywhere close to replicating his production.

 

Suter's 18 relief innings last year were amazing & integral to our success, but if he pitches all of 2020 out of the bullpen, the odds of him putting up 75+ innings with ERA-/FIP- marks around 60 & WAR/WPA marks of 2.5 (AKA an average Hader season), are extremely low.

 

Would be beyond cool if it happened, but I certainly would bet the under.

 

Yeah, picking up WAR elsewhere, such as the lineup, in the event Hader is moved seems much more plausible than expecting the existing pieces of a potential pen to pick up his slack. Doesn't mean they can't put together an effective relief squad, they'll just have to go about it a bit differently.

 

Full year of Rasmussen and Suter in the pen could probably get close to it.

 

Then take the Lutz-for-Seager-Sheffield-Dunn deal

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18485/

 

rotation stands at Woodruff, Lindholt, Lauer, Dunn, Houser

bullpen would be Knebel, Hader, Suter, Rasmussen, Sheffield, Peralta, Black, and Wahl.

 

Now move Hader to the Mets for McNeil, Lowrie, and Baty.

 

ss: Urias

2b: Hiura

rf: Yelich

1b: McNeil

lf: Braun

c: Narvaez

cf: Cain

3b: Seager

pitcher

bench: Pina, Lowrie, Rodriguez, Mathias, Gamel

rotation: Woodruff, Lindholt, Lauer, Dunn, Houser

bullpen: Knebel, Suter, Rasmussen, Sheffield, Peralta, Black, Wahl, Yardley

 

I give up Hader's 2.5 WAR, but McNeil makes up a fair bit of that. Dunn makes up for some of it. Rasmussen has posted an 11.6 K/9 in the minors. Over his career, Hader had a 10.1. If Rasmussen pitches the whole year in relief, I think he makes up most of the WAR the Crew gives up for Hader.

[adambr2]

Distributing Hader's "WAR" to other places in the lineup sounds nice but it is not possible during an actual MLB gameplay.

 

The psychological effect that Hader's presence in the back of our bullpen has on opposing teams and managers cannot be replaced.

 

Opposing teams literally get demoralized if they are trailing the Milwaukee Brewers past the 7th Inning of any given game.

 

The hitters in the 6th and 7th are thinking "we need to make something happen now or else we are gonna lose this game."

 

If we simply transfer Hader's "WAR" via trade to a shiny new thirdbaseman, it will not make the Milwaukee Brewers as good of a team, and not nearly as intiminating.

 

Jeff McNeil does not strike the fear into any opponent's hearts, unless of course, maybe if clancyphile is their manager.

 

Intimidation factor, really?

 

Love Hader, but I wish the 15 guys who homered off him in 2019 had been a little more intimidated. Or the Washington Nationals, for that matter.

[Vollbc74]

Posted this on the Trade Simulator (yeah i know...) and got some good feedback. What do you guys think?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18516/

 

Astros: Miguel Andujar & Domingo German

 

Brewers: Carlos Correa, Deivi Garcia, & J.A. Happ

 

Yankees: Josh Hader

[TJseven7]

 

Over the last three years Hader ranks 2nd in fWAR (5.9), 1st in rWAR (7.2), 2nd in WPA (7.26), 7th in ERA- (57), 9th in FIP- (63) & 1st in K% (44.6).

 

None of Rasmussen, Andrews, QTC or any other reliever in all of baseball, really, are likely to come anywhere close to replicating his production.

 

The thing is, Hader 2020 may not replicate that production either. There was something last year where there was some level of him getting figured out or him tiring or a tell on his pitch.

 

If we get a good package, I am all for trading him.

 

I love this narrative that's been created within MKE. He had 2 spells of roughly 5 games where he gave up a few HRs.

 

He was a 2.6 ERA in 75 innings. Garrett Cole was a 2.5. Maybe the leagues figuring him out too.

 

"Full year of Rasmussen and Suter in the pen could probably get close to it."

 

Cuz it's just that easy right?

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Good trick lumping clancy's projections in with everyone keeping a level head about how it might not be the end of the world if Hader is traded.

 

And comparing the numbers of a three times through SP to a one time through RP is awfully disingenuous as well.

[Warning Track Power]

Posted this on the Trade Simulator (yeah i know...) and got some good feedback. What do you guys think?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18516/

 

Astros: Miguel Andujar & Domingo German

 

Brewers: Carlos Correa, Deivi Garcia, & J.A. Happ

 

Yankees: Josh Hader

I would do this trade. Long term SP TOR potential in Garcia. Immediate impact for MLB team in Yelich window with Correa. Happ is a rotational piece. Think it fits all the needs both long and short term.

[TJseven7]

Good trick lumping clancy's projections in with everyone keeping a level head about how it might not be the end of the world if Hader is traded.

 

And comparing the numbers of a three times through SP to a one time through RP is awfully disingenuous as well.

 

No this is people with a "level head" saying "I'd trade Hader for the moon." That's not a discussion. I'd sell a kidney for a million dollars. Let's discuss.

 

You simply do not remove that from this team and sustain our level of success without a miracle. It's no different than trading Yelich. The last thing you want to do is trade your best players. They are insanely hard to replace.

 

I see a lot of people proposing yahoo FF trades where MKE gets 3 lesser non important pieces for 1 star. Or people saying they'd sell their kidney for a million dollars.

 

That's not reality.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I don't know the last time I saw so much hyperbole in one post. Well done.

[mattyo]

Posted this on the Trade Simulator (yeah i know...) and got some good feedback. What do you guys think?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18516/

 

Astros: Miguel Andujar & Domingo German

 

Brewers: Carlos Correa, Deivi Garcia, & J.A. Happ

 

Yankees: Josh Hader

 

Think this is pretty reasonable. We could certainly do worse..