Hader trade ideas

[SRB]

But people tend to just say 'that website is worthless' or whatever - instead of actually addressing the trade.

 

I would just ask people to address the trade that is proposed - even if someone used the trade values website.

 

Fair enough, though I think the only instance of someone doing that was when the website said that the only way we could land Gavin Lux and Dustin May is if we threw in Christian Yelich

[A Swing and A Drive]

My apologies to the Trade Simulator. I overreacted to the post where it said giving up Yelich Hader and Urias was still not equal value for Dodgers prospects.

 

I will do my best not to bad mouth or speak Ill of the Trade Simulator in the future.

[adambr2]

Which is why no one, including Baseball Trade Values, is claiming or even aspiring to be the perfect valuation tool.

 

Ok, but it's not a "perfect valuation tool" in the same way that HighHeat19 was not a "perfect inside source." Anyway nobody is stopping anyone else from posting them, but I also don't think that should stop the rest of his from expressing our opinion of trade proposals (or rather critiques of trade proposals) based on those numbers.

 

I think they can be interesting to look at, but less interesting when the implication is "that is not a realistic trade proposal, based on these values"

 

The HighHeat19 comparison is pretty unfair. There isn't a Ken Rosenthal of trade simulators, and the guy running the simulator isn't an Internet troll pulling the numbers out of thin air. There's reasoning and logic behind all of it, and it's your right to agree or disagree with any aspect of it.

 

Fair enough, though I think the only instance of someone doing that was when the website said that the only way we could land Gavin Lux and Dustin May is if we threw in Christian Yelich [laughing]

 

Well according to the site, Lux and May combined are worth about the same as Hiura+Woodruff which seems about right to me and which about the same as the other two. I wouldn't trade Yelich for Lux and May, but it's not a ridiculous proposal. It is just harder to measure the two values up against each other because they derive value from different things. Yelich is valuable because of his fantastic production. Lux and May are valuable because of their immense upside and having 4 times more control than Yelich.

[Warning Track Power]

Well according to the site, Lux and May combined are worth about the same as Hiura+Woodruff which seems about right to me and which about the same as the other two. I wouldn't trade Yelich for Lux and May, but it's not a ridiculous proposal. It is just harder to measure the two values up against each other because they derive value from different things. Yelich is valuable because of his fantastic production. Lux and May are valuable because of their immense upside and having 4 times more control than Yelich.

I have a hard time with a valuation site stating the value of Lux and May are so much more substantial than that of Hader and Urias.

 

Pre-2019 Rankings of prospects show the following:

Lux: #70 (MLB.com), Baseball America #40

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=lux---000gav

 

Urias: #23 (MLB.com), Baseball America #31

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=urias-000lui

 

May: #69 (MLB.com), Baseball America #82

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=may---000dus

 

Now add an all star MLB player, arguably the best reliever in baseball and with 4 years of control, and I would say that a Lux and May for Hader and Urias feels about right in terms of value.

[Eye Black]

Ok, but it's not a "perfect valuation tool" in the same way that HighHeat19 was not a "perfect inside source."

Well one is a website trying to reverse engineering thousands of past transactions to see if something can be gleaned from it, and the other is a guy whose hobbies included fishing and fabricating Brewers rumors to get attention. I think they’ve achieved different levels of imperfection.

 

 

Anyway nobody is stopping anyone else from posting them, but I also don't think that should stop the rest of his from expressing our opinion of trade proposals (or rather critiques of trade proposals) based on those numbers.

Agreed, and I haven’t seen much of that happening. Most of the trade proposals made directly on the Baseball Trade Values website are “disliked” and argued for a variety of reasons. This forum is no different, just asking people to lay off the “this is stupid” or “a waste of time” tone and stick to the reasons for disagreeing with a particular trade proposal.

[MrTPlush]

Using pre 2019 ranks is kinda silly. Someone like Lux dramatically increased his value.

[wibadgers23]

I have been going through the Yankees top prospects lists and just can't get excited about anybody except for maybe Dominguez who is only 16 years old. Frazier and Andujar would have been really nice targets prior to last year. I just don't see how the Yankees and Brewers can match up on a Hader trade. The Dodgers on the other hand...

[RockCoCougars]

I have been going through the Yankees top prospects lists and just can't get excited about anybody except for maybe Dominguez who is only 16 years old. Frazier and Andujar would have been really nice targets prior to last year. I just don't see how the Yankees and Brewers can match up on a Hader trade. The Dodgers on the other hand...

 

Agreed on the Yanks. Hard pass for me on any deal with Andujar as the centerpiece. Dodgers would have to be willing to move Urias as part of the deal for me to listen.

[brewers888]

The only way I can get behind a trade of Hader to the Yankees is if Dominguez is in the deal. If Andujar is the main guy coming back it will be a major failure. Hopefully the Dodgers pony up and include Lux.

[clancyphile]

For me, the Mets match up best, with the ability to get McNeil and Davis at a minimum.

 

To me, Citi Field's park factors suggest McNeil could fare much better in Miller Park. Did anyone really think Yelich would be a MVP-type player when that trade went down?

[82brewcrew82]

Why are we down on Andujar as a part of the return for Hader?

[A Swing and A Drive]

Jeff McNeill was recently (2017) unprotected in the Rule 5 draft and no team selected him. He is no future MVP.

 

He’s a future Daniel Murphy at best. Solid player but not worthy of headlining a Hader trade.

[SRB]

Using pre 2019 ranks is kinda silly. Someone like Lux dramatically increased his value.

 

In 339 PA at AAA last season, 21-22 year old Luis Urias hit .315/.398/.600/.998 with 19 HR and 7 SB, and held his own in the majors in a smaller sample size. He should have tried a little harder to avoid tanking his prospect value I guess

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Using pre 2019 ranks is kinda silly. Someone like Lux dramatically increased his value.

 

In 339 PA at AAA last season, 21-22 year old Luis Urias hit .315/.398/.600/.998 with 19 HR and 7 SB, and held his own in the majors in a smaller sample size. He should have tried a little harder to avoid tanking his prospect value I guess

 

Nah ... getting traded to the Brewers tanked his value enough

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I saw one Yankees / Hader proposal on Twitter that I'd be on board with...

 

Hader for...

 

SP- Deivi Garcia (key piece)

3B - Miguel Andujar

OF- Clint Frazier

1B- Mike Ford

 

The Yankees aren't trading Jasson Dominguez. If there's a deal to be had with them it's gotta start with Garcia.

[Eye Black]

Jeff McNeill was recently unprotected in the Rule 5 draft and no team selected him. He is no future MVP.

 

He’s a future Daniel Murphy at best. Solid player but not worthy of headlining a Hader trade.

Jeff McNeil and Max Muncy were Rule 5 eligible in 2017. In the two seasons since then McNeil has put up a 142 OPS+ with defensive positional flexibility.

 

Also, if you are holding past prospect pedigree against players, its worth acknowledging Hader was considered the third or fourth piece to a trade that brought in 4 prospects, and he had already been traded once before at that point as the throw-in piece on another deal.

 

Players evolve and improve, I wouldn’t hold their development path from their pre-MLB days against them years later..

[adambr2]

Using pre 2019 ranks is kinda silly. Someone like Lux dramatically increased his value.

 

In 339 PA at AAA last season, 21-22 year old Luis Urias hit .315/.398/.600/.998 with 19 HR and 7 SB, and held his own in the majors in a smaller sample size. He should have tried a little harder to avoid tanking his prospect value I guess

 

It's fair to question why Urias' had such an extreme drop. I think he went from the 50s or 60s to the 20s. I can understand the adjustment because of obviously different market perception, but not to that extreme if there isn't a production drop to support it.

 

Urias had a fantastic AAA season as you said and there was a lot of good even at the MLB level as a young player. He got on base 33 percent of the time in his first extended big league stint as a 22 year old and would have been about a 2.5 to 3 WAR player over a full season just even at what his MLB production was. There's the 6 years of control there and I think putting his value between 20-30 is underselling him.

[Cirilloing]

I saw one Yankees / Hader proposal on Twitter that I'd be on board with...

 

Hader for...

 

SP- Deivi Garcia (key piece)

3B - Miguel Andujar

OF- Clint Frazier

1B- Mike Ford

 

The Yankees aren't trading Jasson Dominguez. If there's a deal to be had with them it's gotta start with Garcia.

 

If Im Stearns and they tell me that a prospect is untouchable in a Hader trade i hang up the phone. Best reliever in the game. Pony up or gfy

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I saw one Yankees / Hader proposal on Twitter that I'd be on board with...

 

Hader for...

 

SP- Deivi Garcia (key piece)

3B - Miguel Andujar

OF- Clint Frazier

1B- Mike Ford

 

The Yankees aren't trading Jasson Dominguez. If there's a deal to be had with them it's gotta start with Garcia.

 

If Im Stearns and they tell me that a prospect is untouchable in a Hader trade i hang up the phone. Best reliever in the game. Pony up or gfy

 

You're missing a key aspect - Hader isn't untouchable. Untouchables net untouchables.

 

Can probably chalk you up as one who will be unhappy with the return for Hader.

[HarveysWBs]

I saw one Yankees / Hader proposal on Twitter that I'd be on board with...

 

Hader for...

 

SP- Deivi Garcia (key piece)

3B - Miguel Andujar

OF- Clint Frazier

1B- Mike Ford

 

The Yankees aren't trading Jasson Dominguez. If there's a deal to be had with them it's gotta start with Garcia.

 

If Im Stearns and they tell me that a prospect is untouchable in a Hader trade i hang up the phone. Best reliever in the game. Pony up or gfy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But yeah, I agree with this sentiment.

[PeaveyFury]

Jeff McNeill was recently unprotected in the Rule 5 draft and no team selected him. He is no future MVP.

 

He’s a future Daniel Murphy at best. Solid player but not worthy of headlining a Hader trade.

Jeff McNeil and Max Muncy were Rule 5 eligible in 2017. In the two seasons since then McNeil has put up a 142 OPS+ with defensive positional flexibility.

 

Also, if you are holding past prospect pedigree against players, its worth acknowledging Hader was considered the third or fourth piece to a trade that brought in 4 prospects, and he had already been traded once before at that point as the throw-in piece on another deal.

 

Players evolve and improve, I wouldn’t hold their development path from their pre-MLB days against them years later..

 

Agree completely with this post. Plenty of players were meh prospects that became legit MLB players.

[TURBO]

I saw one Yankees / Hader proposal on Twitter that I'd be on board with...

 

Hader for...

 

SP- Deivi Garcia (key piece)

3B - Miguel Andujar

OF- Clint Frazier

1B- Mike Ford

 

The Yankees aren't trading Jasson Dominguez. If there's a deal to be had with them it's gotta start with Garcia.

 

If Im Stearns and they tell me that a prospect is untouchable in a Hader trade i hang up the phone. Best reliever in the game. Pony up or gfy

 

yup, agreed.

[timpep]

I keep seeing "best reliever in the game" as a reason we can't trade Hader unless we get an extreme overpay... Based on fa contracts the best reliever in the game is worth less than a really good but not great starting pitcher and much much less valuable than a really good bat. I think a lot of us overvalue him.

[adambr2]

Jeff McNeill was recently unprotected in the Rule 5 draft and no team selected him. He is no future MVP.

 

He’s a future Daniel Murphy at best. Solid player but not worthy of headlining a Hader trade.

Jeff McNeil and Max Muncy were Rule 5 eligible in 2017. In the two seasons since then McNeil has put up a 142 OPS+ with defensive positional flexibility.

 

Also, if you are holding past prospect pedigree against players, its worth acknowledging Hader was considered the third or fourth piece to a trade that brought in 4 prospects, and he had already been traded once before at that point as the throw-in piece on another deal.

 

Players evolve and improve, I wouldn’t hold their development path from their pre-MLB days against them years later..

 

3rd.

 

Sorry, pet peeve of mine that people have rewritten history on the Gomez trade to say Houser was considered the best or second best piece when he was absolutely the 4th piece

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I keep seeing "best reliever in the game" as a reason we can't trade Hader unless we get an extreme overpay... Based on fa contracts the best reliever in the game is worth less than a really good but not great starting pitcher and much much less valuable than a really good bat. I think a lot of us overvalue him.

 

Appears so. People would dig into the package I posted above and change their tune real quick if it came to fruition. You don't have to get a team's best asset to win a trade either. Btw, given Dominguez's age, he's actually 1 spot behind Garcia (#1) on the Yankees top ten prospects list. I'd jump for joy if Dominguez was traded to Milwaukee but I don't need him to be in the package for it to make sense for the Brewers. Garcia would be a great centerpiece.