Hader trade ideas

[mattyo]

Just for fun I played with the trade simulator to see what a fair trade for Seager/Lux/May would be:

 

Brewers Get: 204.10

Lux

May

Seager

 

Dodgers Get : 197.60

 

Hader

Urias

Yelich

 

So I guess not too bad, we just have to sweeten the pot with that extra player.

 

I did say it was too much. But also, this is more an example of how useless the trade simulator is than anything.

[SRB]

Doesn't help that they arbitrarily took about $50 million off Urias's "value" even though as a prospect he should be ranked near or above May

[brewcrewdue80]

Reason one: The major-league lineup is pretty thin on quality hitters there’s Yelich, Braun (if healthy) Navarez and a bunch of question marks. Will Hiura be able to cut down on the Ks, will Arcia finally play up to his talent level. Will Urias hit with enough power to be an everyday player.

 

Not to go too far off topic, but this has to be addressed. It is pure insanity to view Hiura's bat as a question mark and not include him in any quality hitters group.

 

I agreed with most of the rest of your post, but Hiura's bat is elite and that isn't debatable.

 

He struck out as many times as Arcia in 200 fewer at bats. He’s awesome when he hits it, but it’s a legit question. The GM doesn’t keep players around who strike out 160+ times

 

Exit Velocity is the case here. Hiura is at 91.4 Arcia a career best 87.5 last season. 87.5 is MLB average. At least it was on this site.

 

Andujar doesn't have the history I'd take him in a Hader trade. Nor does Frazier have the history. These are sub .800OPS bats history and Frazier certainly doesn't move the needle for an OF even if he would exceed .800.

Someone mentioned Stearns is asking for a team's #1 prospect at minimum in the deal. Yanks don't have that player. This is Stearns essentially telling the Dodgers to start with Lux.

The Mets with JD Davis and Dominic Smith would fill the need and maybe tip the trade in value the Mets add Mark Vientos who looks the part of future 3b stud/maybe 1b. Yeah we wouldn't have pitching until we signed a guy like Kuechel.

[NievesNoNO]

Seager, Lux, and May??

 

I like to dream, but that is even too much for me. That isn't a "bit too much", that is just plain unreasonable. I think people are dreaming to just want Lux for Hader straight up...I bet the Dodgers would say no to that let alone that 3 player fleecing.

 

I am not a big fan of the trade value site generally speaking, but Hader isn't even worth one of those guys let alone all three according to it (I think the site overhypes all of their prospect values). Regardless it has:

 

Brewers Get : 204.10 (Seager, Lux, and May)

Dodgers Get: 71.59 (Hader and Urias)

 

I tend to agree here. I'd be willing to build from Lux or May if they're really intent on trading Hader. I mean Lux is kind of their version of Hiura; name the relievers that you'd be willing to trade Hiura for.

 

I'd try for something like Lux+Beaty+. I also wouldn't include Urias in a deal.

[wntrtxn21]

If the Yankees offered us Dominguez and we took that, it would sting a bit given that he's only 16. But he's also got a chance to be the next Wander Franco type prospect.

 

I'd be happy with that.

 

And wait 4-6 years? He has a much, much better chance of never making it to the big leagues than of being the next Franco. Pass.

[paul253]

What about Hader to SD for Mackenzie Gore?

[wntrtxn21]

Just for fun I played with the trade simulator to see what a fair trade for Seager/Lux/May would be:

 

Brewers Get: 204.10

Lux

May

Seager

 

Dodgers Get : 197.60

 

Hader

Urias

Yelich

 

So I guess not too bad, we just have to sweeten the pot with that extra player.

 

Those numbers show you how ridiculous the simulator can be. It treats prospects like they were continous MLB all-stars.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't really get the negativity with the Yankees as a trade partner. Andujar is fine player and I also don't get the negativity to their system. Jasson Dominguez specifically could be a monster, like better than anyone currently on this team someday minus Yelich. Seems they have plenty of pieces.

 

Hmm who was it the Brewers had? Gilbert Lara. Considered one of the best in 2015. He's now 21 and only reached High A ball.(god I loved him as a 16yr old signing)

Best RP in Baseball and in some respects history for a 16yr old who may be a monster.

The Yankees are a terrible trade partner because what they have to offer are all Mid Floor players and nothing higher in ceiling potential. We're talking highest ceiling for a RP reached in Hader. If he's going to head to a LA or NY team, that's providing immense cost savings for the 300+mil contract hand out teams. If Hader were a FA now with these stats, He's being paid 20mil a year by one of them for 5years.

[MrTPlush]

I don't really get the negativity with the Yankees as a trade partner. Andujar is fine player and I also don't get the negativity to their system. Jasson Dominguez specifically could be a monster, like better than anyone currently on this team someday minus Yelich. Seems they have plenty of pieces.

 

Hmm who was it the Brewers had? Gilbert Lara.

 

Lara can't hold the jock strap of Dominguez.

[MrTPlush]

Those numbers show you how ridiculous the simulator can be. It treats prospects like they were continous MLB all-stars.

 

Haha agreed, but it also shows how lopsided that trade is. Seager is still controlled at pretty cheap arby costs for two years, Lux is a HUGE prospect, and May...well, I don't know a ton about May. I think May was a pretty decent pitching prospect though.

 

I think people are really trying to ignore the cost of Hader. Hader will be a expensive reliever after this year...pushing $10mil in 2021 and by 2023...who knows maybe in excess of $15mil. And if he doesn't stay elite he may not even last with the Dodgers 4 years. You can always hope for a major overpay, but I won't sit here expecting it.

 

I am not really a Seager fan, but he is probably a realistic centerpiece, plus a few other intriguing prospects. Maybe May could be the centerpiece if they are willing to part with him. Lux? Wishful thinking, incredibly unlikely, but not impossible I suppose.

 

I would bet on him staying in all honesty. I would expect Stearns to either have someone back up a dump truck or keep him. Fair market value would be depressing to a lot of people here.

[Jopal78]

Andujar, Frazier, JA Happ and cash for Hader.

 

None of those players is overwhelming but it would allow the Brewers to field a lineup mostly of players with high ceilings and under the age of 26 and all controlled for multiple seasons. Happ would be veteran depth for the rotation.

 

C: Navarez 27

1B/3B Andujar 25

2B Hiura 23

SS Arcia 25

3B Andujar/Urias 23

LF Braun/Frazier 36/25

CF Cain/Frazier 34/25

RF Yelich 28

UTL Gamel 27

 

SP Woodruff 27

SP Houser 27

SP Happ 37

SP Lauer 24

SP Peralta/Burnes,Lindblom 23/25/32

[sveumrules]

Just for fun I played with the trade simulator to see what a fair trade for Seager/Lux/May would be:

 

Brewers Get: 204.10

Lux

May

Seager

 

Dodgers Get : 197.60

 

Hader

Urias

Yelich

 

So I guess not too bad, we just have to sweeten the pot with that extra player.

 

Those numbers show you how ridiculous the simulator can be. It treats prospects like they were continous MLB all-stars.

 

It actually attempts to establish a median value between the astronomically high surplus value provided by top prospects who live up to the hype versus the near zero value provided by some top prospects who inevitably flame out.

 

FanGraphs research indicates a 60/65 FV position player prospect, guys like Adell or Lux, typically produce around 55-62 million in surplus value over their period of team control...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

 

If anything the publicly available valuations might actually undersell how much value teams place on true top prospects given how infrequently they are traded.

[mattyo]

Andujar, Frazier, JA Happ and cash for Hader.

 

None of those players is overwhelming but it would allow the Brewers to field a lineup mostly of players with high ceilings and under the age of 26 and all controlled for multiple seasons. Happ would be veteran depth for the rotation.

 

C: Navarez 27

1B/3B Andujar 25

2B Hiura 23

SS Arcia 25

3B Andujar/Urias 23

LF Braun/Frazier 36/25

CF Cain/Frazier 34/25

RF Yelich 28

UTL Gamel 27

 

SP Woodruff 27

SP Houser 27

SP Happ 37

SP Lauer 24

SP Peralta/Burnes,Lindblom 23/25/32

 

 

Why not just liquidate the franchise while you're at it.

[DrugBust]

If the Yankees offered us Dominguez and we took that, it would sting a bit given that he's only 16. But he's also got a chance to be the next Wander Franco type prospect.

 

I'd be happy with that.

 

And wait 4-6 years? He has a much, much better chance of never making it to the big leagues than of being the next Franco. Pass.

 

If you're under the impression like I am that the Brewers window has closed and what they need most is a huge boost to their farm system, starting with a guy who grades out as the next phenom in a couple years is pretty great start.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Just for fun I played with the trade simulator to see what a fair trade for Seager/Lux/May would be:

 

Brewers Get: 204.10

Lux

May

Seager

 

Dodgers Get : 197.60

 

Hader

Urias

Yelich

 

So I guess not too bad, we just have to sweeten the pot with that extra player.

 

This "trade simulator" is a complete waste of time, IMO.

[adambr2]

The reasoning behind the drop for Urias has been explained numerous times. It wasn't arbitrary.

 

We don't have a perfect tool for dollar evaluation of MLB assets and frankly such a tool would be impossible.

 

If you think the trade evaluator is a complete waste of time no one is forcing you to use it.

[SRB]

We don't have a perfect tool for dollar evaluation of MLB assets and frankly such a tool would be impossible.

 

Correct.

[Eye Black]

This "trade simulator" is a complete waste of time, IMO.

It’s becoming tiresome having people continually complain about it, IMO. Maybe just don’t use it or pay attention to it then?

 

I appreciate what they are in their infancy towards attempting. It isn’t ever going to be a perfect science, so there will always be plenty of room for debate. Even trade values that matchup perfectly will never work out 99% of the time for a variety of reason that were mentioned earlier in the thread.

 

Still, their site gives a much better starting point towards gauging value for literally 1,000 of players than we had previously. If you know player values better then them, or think the whole thing is a waste of your time, simply move on.

 

 

We don't have a perfect tool for dollar evaluation of MLB assets and frankly such a tool would be impossible.

Correct.

Which is why no one, including Baseball Trade Values, is claiming or even aspiring to be the perfect valuation tool.

[baumer16]

I have no idea who this guy is or what his credibility is but @MLBMarathon posted on Twitter that Hader Yankees talks have intensified substantially over the last hour and they’re working towards a deal.

[Warning Track Power]

I really don't see anything "realistically" I want from the Yankees for Hader.

[Bulldogboy]

Saw that talks are ongoing. To me Dodgers are a much better fit than the Yankees. I love Lux and any deal including him I'm excited about. Add him to Hiura and Urias and you have got something to work with moving forward.

[MrTPlush]

I have no idea who this guy is or what his credibility is but @MLBMarathon posted on Twitter that Hader Yankees talks have intensified substantially over the last hour and they’re working towards a deal.

 

Guy knows nothing, he just regurgitates other people’s rumors. I don’t know the original rumor, but that’s all he is doing...reposting it.

 

Sounds like Ken Rosenthal squashed it just now on MLB Network though.

[mattyo]

The good news is we have Stearns at the helm. If we trade Hader to the Yankees I think we can rest assured we will be getting quite a bit of value.

 

That being said, I'd much rather trade with the Dodgers or even Mets if they're up for it, as I see their chips being much more helpful for our current window and the future.

[SRB]

Which is why no one, including Baseball Trade Values, is claiming or even aspiring to be the perfect valuation tool.

 

Ok, but it's not a "perfect valuation tool" in the same way that HighHeat19 was not a "perfect inside source." Anyway nobody is stopping anyone else from posting them, but I also don't think that should stop the rest of his from expressing our opinion of trade proposals (or rather critiques of trade proposals) based on those numbers.

 

I think they can be interesting to look at, but less interesting when the implication is "that is not a realistic trade proposal, based on these values"

[reillymcshane]

Which is why no one, including Baseball Trade Values, is claiming or even aspiring to be the perfect valuation tool.

 

Ok, but it's not a "perfect valuation tool" in the same way that HighHeat19 was not a "perfect inside source." Anyway nobody is stopping anyone else from posting them, but I also don't think that should stop the rest of his from expressing our opinion of trade proposals (or rather critiques of trade proposals) based on those numbers.

But people tend to just say 'that website is worthless' or whatever - instead of actually addressing the trade.

 

I would just ask people to address the trade that is proposed - even if someone used the trade values website.