Hader trade ideas

[Gonzo75]

With the World Series over and the shortcomings in the Astros bullpen made abundantly clear do they make a play for a bullpen ace? What kind of package do you think the Brewers could expect for Hader?

[Fear The Chorizo]

not enough to want to deal the repeat NL reliever of the year from a team that will always need to lean more heavily on its bullpen than big market squads capable of buying starting pitching. The Brewers have him under team control through his age 29 season in 2023.

 

Hader's best value to the Brewers continues to be pitching for the Brewers provided they want to remain contending teams during the time Yelich is in Milwaukee. They would be nuts to trade either unless it's part of a full firesale mode, which IMO is pointless given the status of other clubs in their division - the Cubs are a bit of a mess and in flux, the Cards are in decent shape but have holes that won't allow them to dominate the division, the Reds still aren't a competitive roster and the Pirates are in perpetual rebuild mode. 2020 should be another season where the Brewers go for it, and trading Hader is the opposite of that approach.

[sveumrules]

With the World Series over and the shortcomings in the Astros bullpen made abundantly clear do they make a play for a bullpen ace? What kind of package do you think the Brewers could expect for Hader?

 

The Astros had the 4th best bullpen in MLB by runs allowed based WAR over the course of 555 innings during the 162 game regular season, that is far more telling than their results over the last 22 innings / 7 games.

 

I mean Verlander went 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA in the World Series, were his shortcomings made abundantly clear?

[IntentionalHBP]

I’m not sure where to ask this but Rosenthal posted an article and one of the main points is Brewers potentially trading Hader. Does anyone have an Athletic subscription? What does it say?

[Brewcrewin07]

I’m not sure where to ask this but Rosenthal posted an article and one of the main points is Brewers potentially trading Hader. Does anyone have an Athletic subscription? What does it say?

 

I don't have a subscription but here is the lead in...

 

 

In their never-ending quest for payroll efficiency, low-revenue teams often entertain ideas that, on the surface, appear to make little sense.

 

Trading Josh Hader would be precisely that type of counterintuitive move for the Brewers, yet the left-handed reliever is indeed available, according to major-league sources.

 

“We listen on a wide variety of players throughout the offseason. A lot of players get discussed,” Brewers general manager David Stearns said, while adhering to his policy of refusing to comment on specific players in trade conversations.

 

Why would the Brewers even consider moving Hader, who has won the Trevor Hoffman Award as the best reliever in the National League in each of the past two seasons and is still only 25?

 

Follow the money. And Hader’s trade value, too.

 

Hader, who had enough service time as a two-year player to qualify for an extra round of salary arbitration, is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to...

[MVP2110]

I’m not sure where to ask this but Rosenthal posted an article and one of the main points is Brewers potentially trading Hader. Does anyone have an Athletic subscription? What does it say?

 

Basically stats the Brewers are open to dealing Hader, that it would be disastrous if Hader fell off. Specifically watch out for the Mets

[Brewcrewin07]

I’m not sure where to ask this but Rosenthal posted an article and one of the main points is Brewers potentially trading Hader. Does anyone have an Athletic subscription? What does it say?

 

Basically stats the Brewers are open to dealing Hader, that it would be disastrous if Hader fell off. Specifically watch out for the Mets

 

Sure, for DeGrom

[reillymcshane]

I’m not sure where to ask this but Rosenthal posted an article and one of the main points is Brewers potentially trading Hader. Does anyone have an Athletic subscription? What does it say?

The article doesn't really offer anything new.

 

As noted, it says that the Brewers are willing to listen on just about any player on the roster - including Hader. And Rosenthal quotes 'major league sources' that say Hader is available. The price would be huge, and most any contending team (at least with money available) would love to have Hader.

 

Rosenthal speculates that the Mets would be interested - but he doesn't have any specific evidence for this (and says so) - other than Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen used to represent Hader (and Van Wagenen has acquired several of his former clients).

 

He notes that Hader has been used heavily the last two years, and that he will get expensive very quickly. Those two factors may make the Brewers willing to listen if teams comes calling.

 

Again, none of this is new stuff. Just Rosenthal chatting up the possibilities, which his fine.

[reillymcshane]

I have changed the title of this thread from 'Hader to Astros' to 'Hader trade ideas' so it can be a general catch all for Hader conversations.

[long ball]

I'm vehemently against trading Hader.

 

Having said that, if the Brewers are willing do end up trading Hader it better be for a pre-arb position player who has already shown some success in the big leagues (not interested in a first baseman or second baseman though).

[Brewcrewin07]

I'm vehemently against trading Hader.

 

Having said that, if the Brewers are willing do end up trading Hader it better be for a pre-arb position player who has already shown some success in the big leagues (not interested in a first baseman or second baseman though).

 

I'm vehemently against it as well, unless the haul is MASSIVE and i mean MASSIVE with major league ready players and IF and only if the Brewers use the extra money for some MAJOR free agents.

[reillymcshane]

Here's my Hader to the Mets trade:

 

Mets get: Hader

Brewers get: Jeff McNeil, 1B Dominic Smith, LHP David Peterson

 

McNeil goes to 3B (5 years of control remaining)

Smith goes to 1B (5 years of control remaining)

Peterson is a former 1st round pick from Oregon who has had middling success thus far - reaching AA last year. But he has some good peripherals, and could be a middle of the rotation type starter. Won't help in 2020, but could down the road.

 

Yes, you open a massive hole in the bullpen, but you potentially fill two position slots - for very cheap.

 

Just an idea.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I wonder if the Brewers would be able to acquire J.D. Davis and Dom Smith for Hader? Would be two young, talented pre-arby hitters to fill their holes at 3B and 1B.

[trwi7]

I’m not sure where to ask this but Rosenthal posted an article and one of the main points is Brewers potentially trading Hader. Does anyone have an Athletic subscription? What does it say?

The article doesn't really offer anything new.

 

As noted, it says that the Brewers are willing to listen on just about any player on the roster - including Hader. And Rosenthal quotes 'major league sources' that say Hader is available. The price would be huge, and most any contending team (at least with money available) would love to have Hader.

 

Rosenthal speculates that the Mets would be interested - but he doesn't have any specific evidence for this (and says so) - other than Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen used to represent Hader (and Van Wagenen has acquired several of his former clients).

 

He notes that Hader has been used heavily the last two years, and that he will get expensive very quickly. Those two factors may make the Brewers willing to listen if teams comes calling.

 

Again, none of this is new stuff. Just Rosenthal chatting up the possibilities, which his fine.

 

The other interesting note is that while his projected arbitration salary is $4.6 million the CBA allows his agents to argue that he is a player of "special accomplishment" enabling them to compare him to any reliever, not just those in his service class.

[Bulldogboy]

I like this deal for the most part. Smith has been up and down but McNeil is a hitting machine. Reminds me of Jeff Cirillo. Add McNeil to Urias and Hiura and hopefully you have a pretty good hitting infield. Grab a catcher and a starter and we should be better.

[clancyphile]

Here's one idea with the Mets:

 

BREWERS GET

IF/OF Jeff McNeil ($44.7)

C Patrick Mazeika ($0.8)

3B Mark Vientos ($13.2)

 

METS GET:

LHP Josh Hader ($48.3)

OF Tristan Lutz ($7.8)

 

Sign Castellanos as a free agent, and now, you have a lineup of:

ss: Urias

2b: Hiura

rf: Yelich

1b: Castellanos

3b: McNeil

lf: Braun

c: Pina

cf: Cain

[SRB]

Yikes, no way am I centering a Hader trade on McNeil. You have to remember that the objective projected WAR "value" of an elite RP like Hader is going to be far below his market value in MLB.

 

The only matchup I can see working would be with the Dodgers, who need bullpen help and have near-MLB talent that could help us win in 2020.

 

Maybe something centered around:

 

C Will Smith or C Keibert Ruiz

RHP Dustin May

[Montezuma]

I have been saying for the past 3 months the Brewers will be foolish NOT to trade Hader. It is more than the potential money we would pay in arbitration, it is the perfect time to reap huge rewards/prospects/fill openings at 1st and 3rd

[adambr2]

I have been saying for the past 3 months the Brewers will be foolish NOT to trade Hader. It is more than the potential money we would pay in arbitration, it is the perfect time to reap huge rewards/prospects/fill openings at 1st and 3rd

 

As with anything else, we just have to keep our options open and if the right deal falls into our lap, by all means take it. But they shouldn't be afraid to say no to trading him if their price tag isn't met.

[Lathund]

Here's my Hader to the Mets trade:

 

Mets get: Hader

Brewers get: Jeff McNeil, 1B Dominic Smith, LHP David Peterson

 

McNeil goes to 3B (5 years of control remaining)

Smith goes to 1B (5 years of control remaining)

Peterson is a former 1st round pick from Oregon who has had middling success thus far - reaching AA last year. But he has some good peripherals, and could be a middle of the rotation type starter. Won't help in 2020, but could down the road.

 

Yes, you open a massive hole in the bullpen, but you potentially fill two position slots - for very cheap.

 

Just an idea.

 

I'd do that in a heartbeat. Solves two of the biggest holes on the current roster for minimum salary. Frees up $4-5m to spend on pitching (or a catcher) to go with the $40-50m already there. Whatever Peterson ends up doing is just icing on the cake.

 

But I also think that's an unrealistically good trade, one that not even the Mets would make. The ideal trade partner, as needs match up, would probably be the Dodgers. The issue there is that they've not shown any kind of willingness to trade any young player they believe in. But let's imagine they're flexible on that for the sake or argument. With Urias here Gavin Lux is probably not an option anymore. But they have pitchers May or Gonsolin (Wouldn't be the headliner, but a useful addition to a better prospect), catchers like Will Smith (Probably untouchable though) and Keibert Ruiz. Makes a lot of sense on paper.

 

Generally I'm very much in favor of checking out the market for Hader. With a high asking price of course. Hader is one of the best relievers in the game, but relievers are volatile and they impact at most 5% of innings pitched (Even if those innings tend to be high-leverage ones). That's not to say they're not important, but it should still be the last area you focus on. If you can use a reliever, even a really good one, to fill two immediate needs elsewhere, you do it.

 

However I think it'll be a struggle to find a partner that matches up. Dodgers were discussed above. Astros kind of fit the same mould. But beyond that? Would the Mets really do that kind of deal again? Yankees seem to be collecting every reliever they can and they have the ammunition, but at some point even they will say enough is enough. Anyone else seems like a real long shot. Braves? Padres? If the White Sox really are serious this year?

 

I think ultimately no team meets the asking price, and Hader remains a Brewer.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I have been saying for the past 3 months the Brewers will be foolish NOT to trade Hader. It is more than the potential money we would pay in arbitration, it is the perfect time to reap huge rewards/prospects/fill openings at 1st and 3rd

 

As with anything else, we just have to keep our options open and if the right deal falls into our lap, by all means take it. But they shouldn't be afraid to say no to trading him if their price tag isn't met.

 

This is it right here. The Brewers by no means are obligated to deal Hader. They hold all the cards here. You put a huge price tag on him, and if another team doesn’t meet that price, oh well, you go into 2020 with the best reliever in the game back in your pen. The Brewers SHOULD be in a no-lose situation here.

[Eye Black]

Here's my Hader to the Mets trade:

 

Mets get: Hader

Brewers get: Jeff McNeil, 1B Dominic Smith, LHP David Peterson

 

McNeil goes to 3B (5 years of control remaining)

Smith goes to 1B (5 years of control remaining)

Peterson is a former 1st round pick from Oregon who has had middling success thus far - reaching AA last year. But he has some good peripherals, and could be a middle of the rotation type starter. Won't help in 2020, but could down the road.

 

Yes, you open a massive hole in the bullpen, but you potentially fill two position slots - for very cheap.

 

Just an idea.

 

I'd do that in a heartbeat. Solves two of the biggest holes on the current roster for minimum salary. Frees up $4-5m to spend on pitching (or a catcher) to go with the $40-50m already there. Whatever Peterson ends up doing is just icing on the cake.

 

But I also think that's an unrealistically good trade, one that not even the Mets would make. The ideal trade partner, as needs match up, would probably be the Dodgers. The issue there is that they've not shown any kind of willingness to trade any young player they believe in. But let's imagine they're flexible on that for the sake or argument. With Urias here Gavin Lux is probably not an option anymore. But they have pitchers May or Gonsolin (Wouldn't be the headliner, but a useful addition to a better prospect), catchers like Will Smith (Probably untouchable though) and Keibert Ruiz. Makes a lot of sense on paper.

 

Generally I'm very much in favor of checking out the market for Hader. With a high asking price of course. Hader is one of the best relievers in the game, but relievers are volatile and they impact at most 5% of innings pitched (Even if those innings tend to be high-leverage ones). That's not to say they're not important, but it should still be the last area you focus on. If you can use a reliever, even a really good one, to fill two immediate needs elsewhere, you do it.

 

However I think it'll be a struggle to find a partner that matches up. Dodgers were discussed above. Astros kind of fit the same mould. But beyond that? Would the Mets really do that kind of deal again? Yankees seem to be collecting every reliever they can and they have the ammunition, but at some point even they will say enough is enough. Anyone else seems like a real long shot. Braves? Padres? If the White Sox really are serious this year?

 

I think ultimately no team meets the asking price, and Hader remains a Brewer.

I would also be thrilled if the Brewers were able to get that package from the Mets. In my opinion, it would be the perfect pairing of position players (McNeil and Smith) which would allow the Brewers to allocate their freed up financial resources towards pitching. It also seems too good to be true as I think the Mets view McNeil as one of the cornerstones of their lineup for the foreseeable future. Somewhat related, I do wonder if part of the Mets plan in acquiring Marcus Stroman last season is to actively take offers on Syndergaard this offseason.

 

I agree that finding a suitable trade partner for Hader is going to be challenging. If the Brewers weren’t in the middle of a win cycle there are additional teams not mentioned that could put together an enticing package of players 1-2 years away from the majors. The Twins are the primary example that comes to mind (i.e. Kirilloff, Graterol, Larnach, Lewis). Based on the fact a trade of Hader likely requires that the Brewers receive impact major league talent in return I can’t think of any teams not mentioned above that I would include as viable trade candidates. The Dodgers still seems to be the best fit, but they also haven’t shown a willingness to trade away key young pieces previously. I don’t think they would consider moving Lux at this point, but there is a slightly better (albeit maybe still small) chance they would move Seager in a Hader swap. The Yankees were mentioned above and it seems like they are willing to move Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier this offseason, but even if Andujar were paired with a MLB ready pitcher like Jonathan Loiasiga I don’t think those are the types of players that would improve the Brewers roster enough in the near term to justify moving Hader.

 

I guess one unexplored option is a three team trade could be an option in a situation like this where the Brewers don’t matchup with many teams one-on-one for trade possibilities.

[JosephC]

You have to remember that the objective projected WAR "value" of an elite RP like Hader is going to be far below his market value in MLB.

 

 

That was true in 2016, not sure if it's been true since that time.

[brewerfan82]

Steve Phillips also speculated a possible Andujar/Frazier return for Hader on MLB Radio this morning. Similar to the McNeil/Smith Mets deal, it would solve the corner infield holes on the team (by moving Braun to 1st in the Yankees deal). Either deal would probably include supplemental pieces going one way or another, but the base pieces seem like fairly plausible starting points according the MLB Trade Simulator site:

 

 

 

Here are the contract situations of the players involved:

 

RP Hader (4 yrs, age 26-29 seasons) - 2020 Salary (proj.): $4.6M (Arb eligible '20-'24)

 

1B Smith (5 yrs, age 25-29 seasons) - 2020 Salary: Pre-arb (Arb eligible '22-'24)

2B McNeil (5 yrs, age 28-32 seasons) - 2020 Salary: Pre-arb (Arb eligible '22-'24)

 

OF Frazier (4 yrs, age 25-28 seasons) - 2020 Salary: Pre-arb (Arb eligible '21-'23)

3B Andujar (4 yrs, age 25-28 seasons) - 2020 Salary: Pre-arb (Arb eligible '21-'23)

 

As noted above, either scenario fills out our 1B/3B roster holes with pre-arb players, which along with saving an additional ~$4M on Hader this season (and even more the following 3 seasons), this leaves ~$40-45M left to concentrate on pitching this offseason. I doubt the Brewers jump into the Cole/Strasburg sweepstakes, but this may allow them to take a serious run at a couple pitchers in the next couple tiers of starting pitchers (Wheeler - MLBTR pred. 5 yrs/$100M, Bumgarner 4/$72M, Ryu 3/$54M, Keuchel 3/$39M, Hamels 2/30M, Pineda 2/$22M, Miley 2/$16M) as well as a couple relief pitchers to offset the loss of Hader (Betances 1/$7M, Hudson 2/$12M, Stammen 2/$10M, Cishek 2/$10M, Harris 2/$18M, Martin 2/$14M).

 

I'd also note, while Hader is unbelievably dominant, he's averaged facing just under 300 batters the past two seasons. Compare that to the average starting position player who has approximately 600 plate appearances each year and you end up trading a player that affects 300 at bats per year for a couple players that affect 1200 at bats per year.

 

I don't want to trade him away for nothing, but I'm not opposed to trading extremely high on a relief pitcher if it allows us to fill out the offense and reconstruct the pitching staff for the next 4-5 years.

[SRB]

You have to remember that the objective projected WAR "value" of an elite RP like Hader is going to be far below his market value in MLB.

 

 

That was true in 2016, not sure if it's been true since that time.

 

Well Drew Pomeranz just got a $32 million commitment off of one month of pitching sort of like Hader.

 

I think it's definitely still true, and in fact justified. Elite relievers are much more valuable than sabermetrics reflect. I'd say that $40 million figure being cited in this thread is way off, Hader is worth DOUBLE that on the trade market in a season with few elite RP options.