Trade Proposal: Ryan Braun & Josh Hader to Dodgers for Gavin Lux

[sveumrules]

Everyone knows the Cubs drastically overpaid by giving up Torres for Chapman.

 

Was it foolish? I don't know, they won the World Series. Maybe without that trade they win more, though. Who knows?

 

What I think I know is that the Dodgers won't drastically overpay for any single player because their front office likely believes doing so to be foolish.

 

Why repeat mistakes made by inferior teams that, while successful in the short term, likely had a negative long term impact?

[Madhawk23]

Everyone knows the Cubs drastically overpaid by giving up Torres for Chapman.

 

Was it foolish? I don't know, they won the World Series. Maybe without that trade they win more, though. Who knows?

 

What I think I know is that the Dodgers won't drastically overpay for any single player because their front office likely believes doing so to be foolish.

 

Why repeat mistakes made by inferior teams that, while successful in the short term, likely had a negative long term impact?

 

Point well taken. The current Dodgers front office has not been willing to give up their top prospects to this point, but I do wonder at what stage in their process do they start to show a bit more desperation? Clearly, what they have been doing thus far has clearly worked in getting them into the postseason each year, but they have not been able to get over the hump for a championship. You'd have to figure that some frustration has to be starting to settle in there now, wouldn't you?

 

Also, by trading away someone like Lux and Ruiz - they are at least trading from positions of depth - SS and C.

 

With that said - I agree, that a deal like this is probably a huge longshot. But, I do think that it at least makes some sense from both sides - so maybe it's not as crazy as we might think?

[KeithStone53151]

Everyone knows the Cubs drastically overpaid by giving up Torres for Chapman.

 

Was it foolish? I don't know, they won the World Series. Maybe without that trade they win more, though. Who knows?

 

What I think I know is that the Dodgers won't drastically overpay for any single player because their front office likely believes doing so to be foolish.

 

Why repeat mistakes made by inferior teams that, while successful in the short term, likely had a negative long term impact?

 

One argument for the Dodgers opening up their farm system...they are simply better than all but maybe 2 or 3 other teams at developing hitters. It seems every deadline they trade away a top prospect and have 2-3 more studs develop out of nowhere just like Lux. If they are confident they can keep developing star hitters, makes sense to trade some of these hitters for established talent they've been less successful at developing.

 

I'll add that as much as I think said trade would be Lux+, I don't think it would be as crazy as Lux + Smith. We'd have to send something else back to get both guys, something significant. I don't know what to be honest and don't want to speculate on that. More likely would be getting Lux and maybe a lesser relief arm, or a 50/55 prospect with some upside.

 

To your specific note above that I've bolded, it's crazy for the Dodgers in their situation to not win a WS. There's plenty of space between what the Cubs did with Chapman, and marginally overpaying for a specific area of need.

[Madhawk23]

Well, if the Dodgers are so good at developing hitters, why don't we send them Hader and Ray for Lux and Ruiz? They can then work their magic on Corey Ray.

 

Personally, If I'm Stearns - I'm going to need Lux and either Will Smith or Keibert Ruiz in return for 4 years of Josh Hader - one of the best late inning arms in all of baseball. If the Dodgers don't want to do that, then you say "good luck" and watch their pen blow another opportunity next year to win a title.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Personally, If I'm Stearns - I'm going to need Lux and either Will Smith or Keibert Ruiz in return for 4 years of Josh Hader - one of the best late inning arms in all of baseball. If the Dodgers don't want to do that, then you say "good luck" and watch their pen blow another opportunity next year to win a title.

 

Yep, exactly. The Brewers hold all the leverage if the Dodgers are truly interested in Hader. They by all means don't need to deal him. In fact, it can be argued that the Brewers trading Hader for Lux would significantly hinder the Brewers' chance to compete for a title in 2020. As the Dodgers have proven, quality relief help is very difficult to find. And Hader is about as high of quality as you are going to get. If the Dodgers don't want to meet the high asking price, they can pound sand and continue to trot off-day starters out there to get beat at the end of games.

[Madhawk23]

Also - while I know this isn't an apples to apples comparison, what would the surplus value have been for the package that we gave up for Yelich a couple of winters ago? Brinson, Diaz, Harrison and Yamamoto had to have had good surplus value at that time, right? We're talking about three guys who were all Top 100 prospects, and Yelich wasn't nearly the player that he is right now with us. Yet, we had to give up a lot to get multiple years of a guy in Yelich, that was a proven guy (albeit not the MVP he is right now).

 

I think Stearns would be run out of town by the fanbase if he traded one of the faces of the franchise in Hader in a 1 for 1 deal for a prospect. No way that happens.

[KeithStone53151]

Also - while I know this isn't an apples to apples comparison, what would the surplus value have been for the package that we gave up for Yelich a couple of winters ago? Brinson, Diaz, Harrison and Yamamoto had to have had good surplus value at that time, right? We're talking about three guys who were all Top 100 prospects, and Yelich wasn't nearly the player that he is right now with us. Yet, we had to give up a lot to get multiple years of a guy in Yelich, that was a proven guy (albeit not the MVP he is right now).

 

I think Stearns would be run out of town by the fanbase if he traded one of the faces of the franchise in Hader in a 1 for 1 deal for a prospect. No way that happens.

 

The Yelich trade and potential Hader trade are different for so many reasons. For starters, Lux probably has just as high a ceiling as Brinson with a much much higher floor...because he doesn't have nearly as much swing and miss in his game. Lux is more like Hiura, where is would be weird if he wasn't at minimum a solid 1st division regular with MVP potential. Also pre-MVP Yelich still had more value than Hader. Yelich still had upside and was an everyday player while Hader is inevitably going to provide less value out of the pen.

 

I'll also add, as much as I'm a huge Hader fan...I am a bit concerned that people are figuring out how to deal with his filthy belt high fastball. In a few key spots, guys put really good swings on the pitch and hit key HR. And any misses low in the zone get bombed as well. Information gets around quickly in this league, and the hitters are too good to let a one trick pony continue to devastate them. I think we're quickly reaching a point where Hader needs to add something to get hitters out. Find somewhere else effective to locate his FB, more sliders, develop the changeup...something. He has so much arm talent, it's certainly feasible. Hopefully he goes into the offseason knowing that...spending an offseason training with Jimmy Nelson would do him wonders. That turned into a bit of a tangent, but primary point is it might not be a terrible time to sell high on him.

[3and2Fastball]

Is Hader really one of the "faces of the franchise"?!?

 

The franchise is fueled mostly by casual fans ( and thank God for them because without the beer drinkin' tailgatin' casual fans there wouldn't be a franchise in Milwaukee ). I heard & read a ton of casual fans complaining about Hader lately, saying he's overrated & choked in the wildcard game etc etc... I think they'll get over a trade of Hader... And the casual fans will pretty much be there anyways as long as the team doesn't suck...

 

Anyways, I included Braun in the trade proposal not because I would want to get rid of him, but because he has value. And the Dodgers are the only team not on Braun's no trade list, right? I think it'll take more than just Hader to get Lux (I know, I know, Brewerfan.net traditionally overrates every single Brewer ever)... Moving Braun gets a lot of money off the books. Feel free though to keep Braun and add someone else...

[adambr2]

Also - while I know this isn't an apples to apples comparison, what would the surplus value have been for the package that we gave up for Yelich a couple of winters ago? Brinson, Diaz, Harrison and Yamamoto had to have had good surplus value at that time, right? We're talking about three guys who were all Top 100 prospects, and Yelich wasn't nearly the player that he is right now with us. Yet, we had to give up a lot to get multiple years of a guy in Yelich, that was a proven guy (albeit not the MVP he is right now).

 

I think Stearns would be run out of town by the fanbase if he traded one of the faces of the franchise in Hader in a 1 for 1 deal for a prospect. No way that happens.

 

Stearns would not be run out of town. The casual fans would probably be really upset, others would understand, life would go on, we'd still be really good and probably add other bullpen pieces.

 

No one is going to stop going to games because a reliever was traded.

[sveumrules]

Also - while I know this isn't an apples to apples comparison, what would the surplus value have been for the package that we gave up for Yelich a couple of winters ago?

 

Brinson (60 FV, 55 million), Harrison (55 FV, 46 million), Diaz (50 FV, 28 million) & Yamamoto (40 FV, 1 million) combined for a median projected surplus value of about 130 million.

 

Yelich had five years left so a reasonable projection would have been around 20 WAR pre-breakout, about 140-150 million if you assume the price of a win was around 7-7.5 million a couple years ago.

 

The big difference is even the most optimistic projection for Hader would only be about 10 WAR over the next four years.

[reillymcshane]

While I doubt the Dodgers give up Lux, I will throw out a few thoughts on this proposal.

 

1. Adding Braun is not enticing to LA. They have Pederson, Bellinger, Verdugo, Chris Taylor, A.J. Pollack -- just foolish for them to add a defensive challenged LF who makes so much money to an already crowded situation.

 

2. Why would the Dodgers trade Lux? His value is really, really high right now. If the Dodgers think Lux will be good - but not great - then they could potentially deal him for the right player.

 

3. The value of Hader is really high, so the Brewers may consider dealing Josh now - rather than waiting. And while Hader won't be expensive - his price tag will rise each year going forward.

 

4. The Dodgers would get Hader for four years, which I'm sure they would appreciate. Jansen is under contract for two more years - and is starting to show some cracks (3.71 ERA last year).

 

5. The Dodgers bullpen was good last year - but not great. Their postseason performance can't have made them feel any better about the pen either. Getting a dominating arm like Hader would be a perfect solution for them.

 

Again, I don't see the Dodgers dealing Lux. Teams are usually very reluctant to give up such highly touted prospects. Lux will probably slot in at 2B for the Dodgers, which would make for a formidable infield. The Dodgers can then spend money on some arms (which is a risky solution - but not a bad idea if you have the cash).

 

I also think the Crew would be really reluctant to deal Hader. His season ending performance aside, he's just such a unique weapon.

 

However, it's not that far-fetched of an idea. With their deep farm system and roster, the Dodgers could live without Lux. Getting a guy like Hader is almost impossible (Chapman could opt out of his contract, but that's a big if - and he'd cost a ton as a FA), and if Lux is the price, it might make everyone seriously consider it.

 

And with the Dodgers postseason failures the past few years, they might decide a 'go for it' move like Hader for Lux would be worth it.

[rickh150]

Lux would play SS for us? Just curious where he could play...

[3and2Fastball]

Lux would play SS for us? Just curious where he could play...

 

Yes, Shortstop...

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Also - while I know this isn't an apples to apples comparison, what would the surplus value have been for the package that we gave up for Yelich a couple of winters ago? Brinson, Diaz, Harrison and Yamamoto had to have had good surplus value at that time, right? We're talking about three guys who were all Top 100 prospects, and Yelich wasn't nearly the player that he is right now with us. Yet, we had to give up a lot to get multiple years of a guy in Yelich, that was a proven guy (albeit not the MVP he is right now).

 

I think Stearns would be run out of town by the fanbase if he traded one of the faces of the franchise in Hader in a 1 for 1 deal for a prospect. No way that happens.

 

Ah, the old "I don't like it so I'm going to project my opinion on the entire fanbase" argument. It would take about 5 minutes for even the most casual fans to learn that Lux is one the game's top prospects and be OK with the trade. Then 5 minutes later upon learning he's from Wisconsin, they'd be saying "Hader who".

[JosephC]

Hader being a Super 2 probably knocks down his surplus value by somewhere between 10-15 million.

 

I'd put the surplus value estimates as follows:

Josh Hader = 52.4 million

Ryan Braun = -6.5 million

Gavin Lux = 73.3 million

[Madhawk23]

Also - while I know this isn't an apples to apples comparison, what would the surplus value have been for the package that we gave up for Yelich a couple of winters ago? Brinson, Diaz, Harrison and Yamamoto had to have had good surplus value at that time, right? We're talking about three guys who were all Top 100 prospects, and Yelich wasn't nearly the player that he is right now with us. Yet, we had to give up a lot to get multiple years of a guy in Yelich, that was a proven guy (albeit not the MVP he is right now).

 

I think Stearns would be run out of town by the fanbase if he traded one of the faces of the franchise in Hader in a 1 for 1 deal for a prospect. No way that happens.

 

Ah, the old "I don't like it so I'm going to project my opinion on the entire fanbase" argument. It would take about 5 minutes for even the most casual fans to learn that Lux is one the game's top prospects and be OK with the trade. Then 5 minutes later upon learning he's from Wisconsin, they'd be saying "Hader who".

 

Ummm….is there anyone here that would like a Hader for Lux - straight up 1-for-1 type trade? I realize there is a lot of upside with Lux, but we've also seen plenty of big time prospects come up to the big leagues and just not pan out for whatever reason. Hader is now a 2-time all-star and one of the filthiest late inning relievers in all of baseball. Some of the K numbers he's put up these past couple of seasons are literally historic. So, while I'd love the idea of getting Lux - I can't imagine anyone being thrilled with just getting one prospect in return for a proven talent like Hader.

[HiAndTight]

 

People keep talking about how smart the Dodgers are as an organization, yet they have exactly 0 championships to show for that intellect.

 

There are other smart teams as well. I would be thrilled if we had the success the Dodgers have had recently. They are also incredibly setup for years as well.

 

Gotta be honest number of championships means nothing when it comes to how a franchise is ran. The postseason is a total fluke. It’s really hard to see how anyone could run the Dodgers better. I think the fact they go into every season with a strong farm and are the favorites to win the NL every year is more reflective of how they are ran.

 

People always seem to think someone who runs a small market well could take a large market and make it the greatest thing to ever walk the earth. Honestly I don’t think that is the case. If it was that easy the Dodgers would come take Stearns for a small sliver of their overall payroll. I think it takes a completely different mindset and set of skills to run a large market.

 

This is pretty much exactly what the Dodgers did. They went out and got the best small market GM out there. He's the guy that's been in charge of how well run you believe the Dodgers have been.

[HiAndTight]

 

Ummm….is there anyone here that would like a Hader for Lux - straight up 1-for-1 type trade? I realize there is a lot of upside with Lux, but we've also seen plenty of big time prospects come up to the big leagues and just not pan out for whatever reason. Hader is now a 2-time all-star and one of the filthiest late inning relievers in all of baseball. Some of the K numbers he's put up these past couple of seasons are literally historic. So, while I'd love the idea of getting Lux - I can't imagine anyone being thrilled with just getting one prospect in return for a proven talent like Hader.

 

 

I'd rather get one elite prospect the Brewers love than getting 4 or 5 that they don't. I didn't see Lux playing SS so I don't know. He can certainly hit though. Would people go run out of town to bring Stearns back if he had traded Hader for Fernando Tatis Jr this past off-season? I think they'd have been fine with that.

[sveumrules]

Ummm….is there anyone here that would like a Hader for Lux - straight up 1-for-1 type trade?

 

I would, because Lux is likely to provide more surplus value over the next six years than Hader will over the next four.

 

3,600 plate appearances + 7,500 innings in the field give a player much more opportunity to add value than do 300 of even the highest leverage relief innings.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Ummm….is there anyone here that would like a Hader for Lux - straight up 1-for-1 type trade? I realize there is a lot of upside with Lux, but we've also seen plenty of big time prospects come up to the big leagues and just not pan out for whatever reason. Hader is now a 2-time all-star and one of the filthiest late inning relievers in all of baseball. Some of the K numbers he's put up these past couple of seasons are literally historic. So, while I'd love the idea of getting Lux - I can't imagine anyone being thrilled with just getting one prospect in return for a proven talent like Hader.

 

 

I'd rather get one elite prospect the Brewers love than getting 4 or 5 that they don't. I didn't see Lux playing SS so I don't know. He can certainly hit though. Would people go run out of town to bring Stearns back if he had traded Hader for Fernando Tatis Jr this past off-season? I think they'd have been fine with that.

 

Tatis > Lux. Proving it even to a small degree at the MLB level goes such a long way. Brinson is a great example, was a monster at AAA...but the statistical dropoff from AAA to MLB is seriously incredible for him. Also, every team is going to value players differently...so despite Joseph's numbers, it's certainly possible the Dodgers put a higher value on Hader than Lux and would be willing to make the swap. 1 for 1 is really close, I think I would say no. I would want another piece or two.

[tmwiese55]

I'd certainly try for another piece in the negotiation. I think you can make enough of an argument to make a strong case for at least some kind of sweetener. But, if push came to shove I cave and do it straight up. Everyday SS is just so much more valuable than a RP imo.

 

For the Tatis comparison. The poster meant if it was done prior to 2019, at which point Tatis hadn't played at all yet in MLB. So it's actually a good comp. I'd have ranked Tatis higher and more of a lock than Lux, but you'd also have been giving up one more year of control on Hader. Also, I wouldn't put much stock in Lux's stats in 20 games since he came up as a 21 year old. He should be in that near lock to be a good high quality player. Will he blow up to say Bregman/Correa type? who knows, but seems barring injury his flop % is very very low at this point.

[wntrtxn21]

Ummm….is there anyone here that would like a Hader for Lux - straight up 1-for-1 type trade?

 

I would, because Lux is likely to provide more surplus value over the next six years than Hader will over the next four.

 

3,600 plate appearances + 7,500 innings in the field give a player much more opportunity to add value than do 300 of even the highest leverage relief innings.

 

Lux is just as likely to provide LESS "surplus value" because he is not much of a SS, and he still is an unproven prospect. His value to the Brewers would be as a SS, and as many have already said, his best position is 2B where the Brewers have Hiura. Plus he has yet to see the big leagues and could equally be a Brinson type bust.

[TURBO]

Lux played in the big leagues this season...

 

75 at bats, hit .240 with 2 HRs...

 

OBP

.305

 

SLG

.400

 

OPS

.705

 

OPS+

85

[sveumrules]

Lux played in the big leagues this season...

 

75 at bats, hit .240 with 2 HRs...

 

OBP

.305

 

SLG

.400

 

OPS

.705

 

OPS+

85

 

Mike Trout played in the big leagues in 2011, had 123 at bats hit .220 with 5 HRs...

 

OBP

.281

 

SLG

.390

 

OPS

.672

 

OPS+

89

 

A sample as small as 75 plate appearances is completely meaningless when you have years of scouting reports & elite minor league performance already established.

 

Lux wRC+ | A+: 147 AA: 147 AAA: 188

 

Hiura wRC+ | A+: 156 AA: 116 AAA: 155

 

Trout wRC+ | A+: 117 AA: 156 AAA: 179

 

Gavin also has superior BB/K rates, is a better defender & younger compared to Keston.

[TURBO]

Lux played in the big leagues this season...

 

75 at bats, hit .240 with 2 HRs...

 

OBP

.305

 

SLG

.400

 

OPS

.705

 

OPS+

85

 

Mike Trout played in the big leagues in 2011, had 123 at bats hit .220 with 5 HRs...

 

OBP

.281

 

SLG

.390

 

OPS

.672

 

OPS+

89

 

A sample as small as 75 plate appearances is completely meaningless when you have years of scouting reports & elite minor league performance already established.

 

Lux wRC+ | A+: 147 AA: 147 AAA: 188

 

Hiura wRC+ | A+: 156 AA: 116 AAA: 155

 

Trout wRC+ | A+: 117 AA: 156 AAA: 179

 

Gavin also has superior BB/K rates, is a better defender & younger compared to Keston.

 

 

Right, I was just pointing out to the poster above my last post that Lux has indeed played in MLB, albeit a small sample size. He stated that Lux has never played in MLB, I was saying that yes, in fact he has.