Trade Proposal: Ryan Braun & Josh Hader to Dodgers for Gavin Lux

[3and2Fastball]

We get 5-6 years of Lux and take significant money off our books to invest elsewhere in the offseason. You have to give to get, and losing Hader would hurt, but to have Lux as an offensive upgrade at Shortstop would be tremendous...

 

Thoughts?

[MrTPlush]

Ryan Braun isn’t going anywhere. At this point he would likely block any trade to any team. With two kids unless we bring him back he likely retires after the year...just a guess. We are competing here, I don’t think the Dodgers are that appealing to him. In FA he probably won’t be appealing to either LA team.

 

Now if we just proceed into fantasyland (it’s boring this time of year, I will play along now)...no, I would not do it. Hader is worth more than Lux. Also in my opinion Braun is not significant money anymore because it isn’t long term. We have nothing tied to him after this year (outside of the deferred money). Hader may be expensive in the coming years, but he is welllll worth it.

[OldHeidelberg]

Just checked the trade value website and they still have Braun as -16.5 million value even though he has just 21 million left on his contract and just put up nearly 2 WAR this season. But yeah he isn't going anywhere and next year will be his last unless the NL starts using the DH. He still seems to enjoy playing but I don't see him dragging out the end of his career as a DH on bad AL teams hoping to flip him at the deadline. Not sure about the Lux trade, it's covered plenty in the other thread. Hader seems a lot more tradeable all of the sudden with his arby status and painful blown saves to end the year but he is still one of our top 2-3 players. We might regret it but I still hold onto him.

[adambr2]

Dodgers wouldn't do it and Braun probably wouldn't do it so that's about as far as that would go.

[MrTPlush]

Dodgers wouldn't do it and Braun probably wouldn't do it so that's about as far as that would go.

 

You probably forgot the Brewers wouldn’t do it.

[adambr2]

Dodgers wouldn't do it and Braun probably wouldn't do it so that's about as far as that would go.

 

You probably forgot the Brewers wouldn’t do it.

 

I can't say that at all. We have a big hole at SS and Lux is the 2nd best prospect in baseball and would fill that SS hole for the next 6 years.

 

Good as Hader is and valuable, Stearns has shown creativity and full willingness in the past to deal relievers, not to mention the major salary freed to fill other holes. You are literally saving probably 26M and have flexibility to bring back Pomeranz, possibly sign another reliever, maybe bring back one of Grandal or Moose, or something else. Loads of options.

 

Most important thing here is getting Lux cost controlled for the next 6 years at a premium position.

 

I can't say for sure that they'd take it, neither or us can, but given the value if the Dodgers put it out there right now I'd estimate it at a 90% chance of happening.

[adambr2]

Ya. no way the Brewers turn this down IMO. Stearns is not going to choose public sentiment over that much surplus value.

 

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[MrTPlush]

That value site, while useful, is not perfect and has many things that don’t make sense. That Braun value is a joke. It also seems to be valuing Lux as like the #1 prospect in the game. I like him a ton, but not sure he really is a future mega star...especially when most feel he is destined for 2B.

 

While many teams may feel he is one of the best young guys coming into the game, many probably feel less bullish.

[adambr2]

That value site, while useful, is not perfect and has many things that don’t make sense. That Braun value is a joke. It also seems to be valuing Lux as like the #1 prospect in the game. I like him a ton, but not sure he really is a future mega star...especially when most feel he is destined for 2B.

 

While many teams may feel he is one of the best young guys coming into the game, many probably feel less bullish.

 

I don't agree with the Braun value either, but if he's a FA no one is giving him 1/16 with a 4M buyout for 2020. Maybe. Dude had some nice moments but was still a 1.8 WAR player for 2019. I guess you could call him even value, but even then you still come out way ahead. But if you don't like Lux you don't like Lux and obviously that would change your perspective of this trade a lot.

[sveumrules]

That value site, while useful, is not perfect and has many things that don’t make sense. That Braun value is a joke. It also seems to be valuing Lux as like the #1 prospect in the game. I like him a ton, but not sure he really is a future mega star...especially when most feel he is destined for 2B.

 

While many teams may feel he is one of the best young guys coming into the game, many probably feel less bullish.

 

Braun is owed 20 million in salary/buyout for 2020. What would he get as a free agent 1/5, maybe 1/8?

 

The value seems right in line with reality to me, especially if they are assigning a further negative dollar value for the NTC, which I'd imagine they take into account.

 

Even if Lux is only a 2B, he is a younger Hiura with better defense. How much is that worth? The Dodgers know more about him than any other team, so they are likely the most bullish on him, just like they were with Urias, Pederson, Seager, Bellinger & Buehler before him as highly ranked prospects whose pre-Arby years were too valuable to the Tax Capped Dodgers for them to find a suitable trade package in return.

[MrTPlush]

Such a trade depends on three highly variable things:

 

1) Your belief in the sustainability of Hader.

 

2) Lux future

 

3) Brewers win now urgency.

 

The variance in answers you would get on this would be incredible. Some will point out Lux is a prospect, some will say bullpen arms never last, and some will say the Brewers are a small market and will never consistently repeat.

 

The main problem I would find is Lux may take years to be great (Moncada for example didn’t mash right away). The Brewers best opportunity to win may be the next few years where Hader may be an obvious better choice.

 

Of course if you think Lux will start mashing with an incredible .850 OPS sometime soon...obviously that changes things. At the same time Lux is not a MLB quality SS at this point. Pairing him and Hiura up the middle could be comically bad.

 

I think we could find better targets if we wanted to trade Hader. At least in the fantasyland we are in regarding this thread. Lux really isn’t a great fit when we already have a 2B. Trying to put him at SS just isn’t a great idea, our pitchers would likely agree.

[wallus]

No reason for the Dodgers to take on Braun. They are waaaay too smart of an organization for that.

[pacopete4]

At least we keep the streak alive with topics trying to trade Braun.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

No reason for the Dodgers to take on Braun. They are waaaay too smart of an organization for that.

 

People keep talking about how smart the Dodgers are as an organization, yet they have exactly 0 championships to show for that intellect. A great farm system, stacked lineup and great rotation will only get you so far, apparently. That bullpen has been a pretty glaring need for awhile, but despite all the money and resources at their disposal, they have done an underwhelming job of addressing it. I expect the Dodgers to go on the hunt to remake that bullpen this offseason ... and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Hader is a target. Not only would acquiring him strengthen their pen immensely, it would theoretically weaken a rival's.

 

I personally would love to see what a personnel guy like Stearns could do with that type of payroll and overall resources.

[Jopal78]

There isn't really a need to trade Braun anyways. Over the course of his career if he has been healthy enough to accumulate 500 at bats, he has usually delivered an OPS of at least .850-ish. So, there is definitely still some juice left in his bat if they can keep him healthy with days off and late inning defensive replacements.

[wallus]

 

People keep talking about how smart the Dodgers are as an organization, yet they have exactly 0 championships to show for that intellect.

 

There are other smart teams as well. I would be thrilled if we had the success the Dodgers have had recently. They are also incredibly setup for years as well.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

People keep talking about how smart the Dodgers are as an organization, yet they have exactly 0 championships to show for that intellect.

 

There are other smart teams as well. I would be thrilled if we had the success the Dodgers have had recently. They are also incredibly setup for years as well.

 

They have no doubt developed a lot of good players. But having the financial resources available to resign a lot of those players, and go out and buy pretty much whatever else they want, gives them a very legitimate competitive advantage. I'm sorry, but it's tough for me to be too awfully impressed by a team playing in an enormous market, with an enormous payroll, and a ton of money to throw at player development. The impressive part is that they haven't royally messed it up like so many other large market teams have.

[MrTPlush]

 

People keep talking about how smart the Dodgers are as an organization, yet they have exactly 0 championships to show for that intellect.

 

There are other smart teams as well. I would be thrilled if we had the success the Dodgers have had recently. They are also incredibly setup for years as well.

 

Gotta be honest number of championships means nothing when it comes to how a franchise is ran. The postseason is a total fluke. It’s really hard to see how anyone could run the Dodgers better. I think the fact they go into every season with a strong farm and are the favorites to win the NL every year is more reflective of how they are ran.

 

People always seem to think someone who runs a small market well could take a large market and make it the greatest thing to ever walk the earth. Honestly I don’t think that is the case. If it was that easy the Dodgers would come take Stearns for a small sliver of their overall payroll. I think it takes a completely different mindset and set of skills to run a large market.

[wallus]

 

I'm sorry, but it's tough for me to be too awfully impressed by a team playing in an enormous market, with an enormous payroll, and a ton of money to throw at player development. The impressive part is that they haven't royally messed it up like so many other large market teams have.

 

If all it took was money, then the Cubs, Red Sox, Giants and Angels would have made the playoffs this last season. Yes, it is easier with money but money didn't make all those other teams pass on Lux did it? I'd like to point out that I don't even like the Dodgers as a team but I can appreciate their organization.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

I'm sorry, but it's tough for me to be too awfully impressed by a team playing in an enormous market, with an enormous payroll, and a ton of money to throw at player development. The impressive part is that they haven't royally messed it up like so many other large market teams have.

 

If all it took was money, then the Cubs, Red Sox, Giants and Angels would have made the playoffs this last season. Yes, it is easier with money but money didn't make all those other teams pass on Lux did it? I'd like to point out that I don't even like the Dodgers as a team but I can appreciate their organization.

 

Yes ... like I said, it is impressive that they haven't royally messed it up like so many other large market teams have.

[KeithStone53151]

I think many are underestimating Lux a bit here. This guy is only 20, even if he moves to 2b...think Robbie Cano. It honestly wouldn't shock me if the Brewers traded Hader to the Dodgers. The Dodgers tried so hard to get Vazquez but couldn't swing it(and now he's 1000000% off the table). Hader is a very logical target for them, and they certainly have the prospects to get him. Hader to the Dodgers probably involves Lux+ coming here despite Lux probably having more value at this point...but highly unlikely said trade includes Braun. He's here to stay. Lux would play SS if he came here and we'd have Arcia as a trade chip to bring back something else.

[TURBO]

Arcia a trade chip?

[KeithStone53151]

Arcia a trade chip?

 

He still has value for his youth/pedigree/defense. Not massive value, but we could get something for him.

[RollieTime]

I think many are underestimating Lux a bit here. This guy is only 20, even if he moves to 2b...think Robbie Cano. It honestly wouldn't shock me if the Brewers traded Hader to the Dodgers. The Dodgers tried so hard to get Vazquez but couldn't swing it(and now he's 1000000% off the table). Hader is a very logical target for them, and they certainly have the prospects to get him. Hader to the Dodgers probably involves Lux+ coming here despite Lux probably having more value at this point...but highly unlikely said trade includes Braun. He's here to stay. Lux would play SS if he came here and we'd have Arcia as a trade chip to bring back something else.

 

I agree. Look at the Chapman trade. I would love to see the surplus value of that trade. Top flight relievers are extremely valuable. One controlled for 4 seasons being traded is unheard of. If Stearns doesn’t get what he likes, move on. He holds all the power in negotiations. I would target Lux, C Will Smith, and RHP Josiah Gray. Brewers could send a sweetener like Freddy Peralta back in this move and I would be fine with it. You get your shortstop and catcher for 6 years while adding a good looking young starting pitcher prospect.

[Madhawk23]

This is actually a very interesting trade idea (without Braun included of course). When I first saw the title, I thought "Oh boy, one of these crazy/unrealistic" trade suggestions. But, I could see this working for both teams. Yes, losing a guy like Hader would hurt - but as other's have said, you have to give something to get something. The Dodgers appear to have a depth in their organization at the SS position, so Lux might be a guy that would be expendable? And, you have to figure that LAD is going to be a bit more desperate this offseason to fill their holes. This is a team that needs a championship next year, after failing to win the ultimate prize 7 years in a row. And, they really need some late inning bullpen help with Kenley Jansen falling off the past year or so.

 

If 3 months of Chapman nets the Yankees Torres (Cubs were also in a desperate mode to win a championship), then I'd have to think Hader is worth Lux +, right? How about Lux and Ruiz for Hader? Is that simply too much to expect in a return for Hader? Personally, I think 4 years of Hader should be worth a lot right now. I know he had some bumps in the road this year, but he's still as elite of a late inning reliever as you'll find - and relatively cheap for another 4 years. That should be worth a lot in my opinion.

 

We've got Knebel and Wahl hopefully coming back next year, and perhaps this would also allow us to make a stronger push at bringing Pomeranz back. If Freddy can develop a bit more consistency, and Burnes can re-find himself, you've got other good late pen options there.