Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings

[sveumrules]

While I'd love to have a bunch of top rated prospects all throughout the minor leagues, these things tend to run in cycles, especially for small market teams who might not be able to match the resources of some of richer teams.

 

Before 2016 John Sickels had the Crew with the 5th best farm system in all of MLB. Our top four prospects on the list were Orlando Arcia, Jorge Lopez, Brett Phillips & Jacob Nottingham before you got to Hader in 5th. (Zach Davies & Adrian Houser were #14/#15).

 

Before 2017 Sickels had the Crew with the 7th best farm system, still pretty good. Hader was #2 this time, with Brinson (#1), Corey Ray (#3), Isan Diaz (#4), Mauricio Dubon (#5) & Luis Ortiz (#6) all ahead of Brandon Woodruff (#7) & Freddy Peralta (C+ grade, not ranked).

 

Over the last three years the Brewers have won 271 games (8th in MLB, more than model small markets Oakland/Tampa Bay, more than the hated Cardinals, more than the perpetually prospect laden Braves). Stearns & company have held on to all the right guys so far while pretty much everyone they have traded away has underwhelmed. I'll take that track record of success over BA's or any other public prospectors.

[clancyphile]

While I'd love to have a bunch of top rated prospects all throughout the minor leagues, these things tend to run in cycles, especially for small market teams who might not be able to match the resources of some of richer teams.

 

Before 2016 John Sickels had the Crew with the 5th best farm system in all of MLB. Our top four prospects on the list were Orlando Arcia, Jorge Lopez, Brett Phillips & Jacob Nottingham before you got to Hader in 5th. (Zach Davies & Adrian Houser were #14/#15).

 

Before 2017 Sickels had the Crew with the 7th best farm system, still pretty good. Hader was #2 this time, with Brinson (#1), Corey Ray (#3), Isan Diaz (#4), Mauricio Dubon (#5) & Luis Ortiz (#6) all ahead of Brandon Woodruff (#7) & Freddy Peralta (C+ grade, not ranked).

 

Over the last three years the Brewers have won 271 games (8th in MLB, more than model small markets Oakland/Tampa Bay, more than the hated Cardinals, more than the perpetually prospect laden Braves). Stearns & company have held on to all the right guys so far while pretty much everyone they have traded away has underwhelmed. I'll take that track record of success over BA's or any other public prospectors.

 

For the 2016 list, Arcia was a starter for most of 2017, 2018, and 2019 - glove-first, with some hot streaks at the plate. Lopez and Phillips turned into Moustakas, who did very well in 2018 and 2019 for the Crew. Nottingham may or may not make it.

 

For 2017, Brinson and Diaz turned into Yelich. Dubon turned into Black and Pomranze - and the latter helped stabilize the Crew's pen in 2019. Ray's still got a good shot. Ortiz helped get Schoop - whose grand slam won a key game in the Brewers' playoff push in 2018.

 

Let me look at the numbers, and make a judgement as to who will do well. You'll find some good players along the way.

[MadThinker88]

I've been getting the Prospect Digest Handbook for the past few years.

I really like the work done by Joseph Werner & I would recommend the book to anyone interested. The book typically goes top 15 or 20 per organization. The website give the top 10 names & reports per organization for free.

 

That said, the book also provides a ranking of the farm systems. He sees the NL Central like this:

Pitts: 5

St. Louis: 14

Cinci: 18

ChiCubs: 28

Milwaukee: 29

 

My copy of the Prospect Digest Handbook arrived today.

Here are the names for the Brewers (1 thru 20).. Again the top 10 names & detailed reports were provided free on the website.

 

# Name Pos

1 Brice Turang 2b/SS

2 Drew Rasmussen RHP

3 Bowden Francis RHP

4 Ethan Small LHP

5 Aaron Ashby LHP

6 Carlos Rodriguez OF

7 Tristen Lutz OF

8 Mario Feliciano C

9 Antoine Kelly LHP

10 Reese Olson RHP

11 Devin Williams RHP

12 Clayton Andrews LHP/CF

13 Dylan File RHP

14 Alec Bettinger RHP

15 Zack Brown RHP

16 Eduardo Garcia SS

17 Trey Supak RHP

18 Braden Webb RHP

19 Cooper Hummel LF/ RF

20 Max Lazar RHP

 

As an added bonus, the book projects the top 25 breakout players this season. Drew Rasmussen was #3 on that list

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs list is out...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-35-prospects-milwaukee-brewers/

 

System Overview...

 

The Brewers have contended for the last two years, which means they’ve traded prospects and other assets for big leaguers, weakening the system pretty significantly. They’ve also pretty meaningfully reconfigured the structure of their scouting during that time (they have just two people listed as pro scouts on this year’s org roster) and this, combined with it having been a while since they last traded for a bunch of prospects, makes it tough to nail down the org’s tendencies on the pro side.

 

On the amateur side, pitch data clearly seems important. Last year I mentioned that this org appears to desire mechanical uniqueness moreso than other clubs, which I still think is true. The Brewers also have more junior college and Venezuelan prospects than the average org.

[MadThinker88]

FanGraphs list is out...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-35-prospects-milwaukee-brewers/

 

System Overview...

 

The Brewers have contended for the last two years, which means they’ve traded prospects and other assets for big leaguers, weakening the system pretty significantly. They’ve also pretty meaningfully reconfigured the structure of their scouting during that time (they have just two people listed as pro scouts on this year’s org roster) and this, combined with it having been a while since they last traded for a bunch of prospects, makes it tough to nail down the org’s tendencies on the pro side.

 

On the amateur side, pitch data clearly seems important. Last year I mentioned that this org appears to desire mechanical uniqueness moreso than other clubs, which I still think is true. The Brewers also have more junior college and Venezuelan prospects than the average org.

 

Disappointinly Fangraphs has joined a chorus of other sources ranking the Brewers as the worst farm system in baseball.

Only 3 more orgs still need to be published (LA Angels, Oakland, ChiCubs) and according to Fangraphs each has more total value in 3 (or 5) prospects than the Brewers have in 35 prospects.

 

It really would be nice for some of these Brewer prospects to prove the various evaluators wrong..

 

EDIT: With a FV of 40 (assuming no value change from the trade to CLE) Andres Melendez would have fallen somewhere between #11 & #28 on the Brewer list..

[CheeseheadInQC]

Interesting take on Lazar in the Fangraphs one, and gives hope beyond the radar gun readings. They also seem more bullish than most on a couple of other pitchers (Castaneda and Robinson).

 

Also, with the prospect digest handbook, I guess there is someone higher on Francis than I am.

[Eye Black]

The post-draft Baseball America Top 100 MLB Prospects list update was released today.

 

Garrett Mitchell was the only Brewers prospect to make it, he was listed at #80.

[Eye Black]

Baseball America released their updated Top 30 Brewers prospect list today (article includes commentary on each of the top 10 players):

 

Milwaukee Brewers 2020 Midseason Top 30 Prospects Update

 

1. Garrett Mitchell, OF

2. Brice Turang, SS

3. Ethan Small, LHP

4. Freddy Zamora, SS

5. Aaron Ashby, LHP

6. Drew Rasmussen, RHP

7. Mario Feliciano, C

8. Antoine Kelly, LHP

9. Tristen Lutz, OF

10. Eduardo Garcia, SS

11. Corey Ray, OF

12. Zack Brown, RHP

13. Hedbert Perez, OF

14. Carlos Rodriguez, OF

15. Trey Supak, RHP

16. Luis Medina, OF

17. Devin Williams, RHP

18. Payton Henry, C

19. Nick Kahle, C

20. Jesus Parra, 3B/2B

21. Jeferson Quero, C

22. Zavier Warren, C

23. Alec Bettinger, RHP

24. Dylan File, RHP

25. Joe Gray, OF

26. Thomas Dillard, OF/1B

27. Hayden Cantrelle, SS

28. Jheremy Vargas, SS

29. Nick Bennett, LHP

30. Clayton Andrews, LHP