Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings

[ARobsBrewCrew]

Jeferson Quero at 17.... huh that's new

[TJseven7]

Lots of DSL kids shooting up the ranks, without doing much.

 

Hello File in the top 30. Dangerously placed at 24. (see Peralta Woodruff) This pipeline release basically locks one of File Bettinger or Lazar into the top 6 prospect in our farm by July.

[ARobsBrewCrew]

Honestly, I used to wait for mlb pipelines lists to come out each year but I’m finally beginning to realize how little their “expert” opinions make of a difference. Every single list that comes out is just a shot in the dark and a best guess based on the prospect’s pedigree. I personally did not have Jeferson Quero in my Brewers Top 100 Prospects list and I don’t think that was a mistake. While it would be a safe bet to put every single catcher in the system on my list, purely based on the importance of the position, why, in theory, would Quero be ranked higher than guys like Max McDowell ever was simply because we don’t know what they are capable of yet. Maybe I sound like an idiot, I mean I’m obviously not arguing against guys like Hedbert or Medina, but Jeferson Quero? Cmon mlb pipeline.

[clancyphile]

Lots of DSL kids shooting up the ranks, without doing much.

 

Hello File in the top 30. Dangerously placed at 24. (see Peralta Woodruff) This pipeline release basically locks one of File Bettinger or Lazar into the top 6 prospect in our farm by July.

 

It's a long way from the DSL to MLB... and it can take a while for the players to really develop.

 

I think File and Lazar are the two pitchers most likely to emerge as TOR arms. The former has four good pitches and control - and reminds me a little of Greg Maddux in that regard. Maddux didn't blow people away, but he managed to induce weak contact and avoid the gopher ball.

 

Lazar is something else. He has the control, and he already gets results. So, what happens if the fastball goes up a few ticks?

 

This is not to say Ethan Small or Aaron Ashby are scrubs, but File and Lazar have some real results.

[TJseven7]

Honestly, I used to wait for mlb pipelines lists to come out each year but I’m finally beginning to realize how little their “expert” opinions make of a difference. Every single list that comes out is just a shot in the dark and a best guess based on the prospect’s pedigree. I personally did not have Jeferson Quero in my Brewers Top 100 Prospects list and I don’t think that was a mistake. While it would be a safe bet to put every single catcher in the system on my list, purely based on the importance of the position, why, in theory, would Quero be ranked higher than guys like Max McDowell ever was simply because we don’t know what they are capable of yet. Maybe I sound like an idiot, I mean I’m obviously not arguing against guys like Hedbert or Medina, but Jeferson Quero? Cmon mlb pipeline.

 

Well, they tend to get excited about guys who have those size speed numbers in the DSL.

Um, 5'10 165 run grade 40?

Well, they tend to get excited about J2s who get paid a 7 figure deal.

Um, 200K bonus?

Well, they tend to get excited about guys who put up some big results from the jump.

Um, he hasn't played?

 

He might play C but this sure is out of LF.

[ARobsBrewCrew]

Honestly, I used to wait for mlb pipelines lists to come out each year but I’m finally beginning to realize how little their “expert” opinions make of a difference. Every single list that comes out is just a shot in the dark and a best guess based on the prospect’s pedigree. I personally did not have Jeferson Quero in my Brewers Top 100 Prospects list and I don’t think that was a mistake. While it would be a safe bet to put every single catcher in the system on my list, purely based on the importance of the position, why, in theory, would Quero be ranked higher than guys like Max McDowell ever was simply because we don’t know what they are capable of yet. Maybe I sound like an idiot, I mean I’m obviously not arguing against guys like Hedbert or Medina, but Jeferson Quero? Cmon mlb pipeline.

 

Well, they tend to get excited about guys who have those size speed numbers in the DSL.

Um, 5'10 165 run grade 40?

Well, they tend to get excited about J2s who get paid a 7 figure deal.

Um, 200K bonus?

Well, they tend to get excited about guys who put up some big results from the jump.

Um, he hasn't played?

 

He might play C but this sure is out of LF.

 

Jeferson Quero prove us wrong!

[TJseven7]

Jeferson Quero prove us wrong!

 

It's not right or wrong. It's that this is an insanely aggressive optimistic placement in the rankings. He could be great, he could be nothing, I don't know, I'm sure they don't either.

 

You can't really criticize a guess but it's a really risky guess.

[Jenkins5]

I really can’t say much on if a DSL kid is worth being ranked so high. My whole opinion on them is small blurbs, size data, small sample sizes, and occasional videos. All these sites have more access to scouts and ability to find out a little more on these kids. So they must of heard something worth being excited for. Could just be pulling names out of a hat. Who knows. Maybe we have a Soto or maybe we have an Arizona flame out.

 

Overall we need to hit on some of these DSL kids and hope some picks start to blossom. Turang, Lutz, Feliciano, Ashby, and Small need to have big years. They are all going to be in AA or Carolina (Turang & Small to start) which is usually the year prospects are made (unless high pick with a over valued name).

[CheeseheadInQC]

Quero shouldn't be a huge shock. He has kind of separated himself as the No. 3 July 2 signing of the Brewers last year, as least as far as lists such as this go. He made Baseball America's list as well. He also was one of four July 2 signings to be brought over for minor league camp in Arizona this spring (well five, but I am guessing one was because he was from Curacao).

 

Is the hype warranted? Who knows. It would make more sense if the list was more consistently upside based. Having him there and then Taylor at 21 when the writeup caps his ceiling as a fourth outfielder seems weird.

 

The biggest surprise for me (other maybe than Kahle being as high as he is, although that's not entirely shocking either) was that Abreu stayed in the top 30. Although given that I've got him even higher it was a surprise I am completely OK with.

[clancyphile]

Quero shouldn't be a huge shock. He has kind of separated himself as the No. 3 July 2 signing of the Brewers last year, as least as far as lists such as this go. He made Baseball America's list as well. He also was one of four July 2 signings to be brought over for minor league camp in Arizona this spring (well five, but I am guessing one was because he was from Curacao).

 

Is the hype warranted? Who knows. It would make more sense if the list was more consistently upside based. Having him there and then Taylor at 21 when the writeup caps his ceiling as a fourth outfielder seems weird.

 

The biggest surprise for me (other maybe than Kahle being as high as he is, although that's not entirely shocking either) was that Abreu stayed in the top 30. Although given that I've got him even higher it was a surprise I am completely OK with.

 

Some players are prospects with a high ceiling. The DSL signees, for instance.

 

Others, like Taylor, are prospects because they have either a high floor or have closer proximity to the majors.

 

In my ballot, I voted Drew Rasmussen #1 because I felt he could be an impact multi-inning reliever with the Brewers bullpen this year. He reached AA last year.

[TJseven7]

Some players are prospects with a high ceiling. The DSL signees, for instance.

 

Others, like Taylor, are prospects because they have either a high floor or have closer proximity to the majors.

 

In my ballot, I voted Drew Rasmussen #1 because I felt he could be an impact multi-inning reliever with the Brewers bullpen this year. He reached AA last year.

 

High floor guys are worthless or end up in AAAA. For instance, Arcia last year was a high floor guy by farm standards.

 

The word is they are going to give Rasmussen a SP gig again this year. No idea why.

[Outlander]

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2020/brewers/

 

Pipeline posted their top 30. Biggest surprise to me is Feliciano coming in at number 3.

Keith Law has him at number 2. It is a pay site but his top 5 is Turang/Feliciano/Brown/Smal/Ashby. Kind of surprised he still has Brown at 3 but he still only thinks of him as a back end starter. There are other guys like Ray/Taylor/Erceg that are higher ranked by Law than others but he still doesn't think much of them so kind of indicative of the farm as a whole.

 

Unlike Pipeline that has Perez/Medina/Quero in their top 20, Law has none in his top 20.

[clancyphile]

Some players are prospects with a high ceiling. The DSL signees, for instance.

 

Others, like Taylor, are prospects because they have either a high floor or have closer proximity to the majors.

 

In my ballot, I voted Drew Rasmussen #1 because I felt he could be an impact multi-inning reliever with the Brewers bullpen this year. He reached AA last year.

 

High floor guys are worthless or end up in AAAA. For instance, Arcia last year was a high floor guy by farm standards.

 

The word is they are going to give Rasmussen a SP gig again this year. No idea why.

 

If they come from the farm, you're paying them the minimum. Beats having to get them at twice the price in free agency.

[TJseven7]

If they come from the farm, you're paying them the minimum. Beats having to get them at twice the price in free agency.

 

Mathius Rodriguez Aguilar Guerra types are also on the chopping block of other teams, they are cheap as well. High floor is a complete waste of time and the cost savings aspect of it is overblown because there are other high floor guys who get cut in the numbers game.

[Smichaelis9]

Jeferson Quero prove us wrong!

 

It's not right or wrong. It's that this is an insanely aggressive optimistic placement in the rankings. He could be great, he could be nothing, I don't know, I'm sure they don't either.

 

You can't really criticize a guess but it's a really risky guess.

Haven’t submitted my list for the sites top 25 yet but he has been slotted at 19 while I've thrown it together a bit. The Baseball America write up was really, really nice. The little video they posted showed a very solid build, swing and throwing arm too. I don’t think this is too crazy honestly. Not to mention Tom Flanagan specifically mentioned him as a guy they had really liked post-signing, on (I believe) Matt Pauley's show later last year.

 

Edit: woke up this morning and suddenly remembered that it was Lane Grindles show lol

[SoCalBrewfan]

If you make a top 30 list for a weak system like the Brewers, you're going to get to names that are marginal. How many guys are rated as 40 overall on the Brewers' top 30 at MLB? Those are guys who are not expected to make an impact at the major league level on their current trajectory, or guys whose error bars are so huge that nobody is really sure what to expect. Sure, some of them will rise above that expectation and have a bit of a career. A very small number of 40s across the league will prove the scouts wrong and make an All Star team or something. I'll root for all of these guys, of course, and have my favorites, but who is 24 vs 30 vs unranked is really not a big deal in the scheme of things.

[MadThinker88]

I was looking for something else on the MLB website & located the following regarding the farm systems & found the results interesting:

 

Youth movements

The average age of the players on each team's Top 30 list could be an indicator of which farm systems will be next to ascend into the Top 10. Here's a list of the teams with the youngest average age on their Top 30 lists, which suggests that both New York teams, as well as the Padres, could have very good systems for a very long time, the Pirates, Rangers and Indians could rise to the top of the Top 10 list and that we should all keep an eye on the Red Sox and Blue Jays.

 

1) Angels, 6/15/1999

2) Yankees, 12/29/1998

3) Rangers, 12/23/1998

4) Mets, 10/24/1998

5) Pirates, 8/14/1998

6) Padres, 8/7/1998

7) Brewers, 8/7/1998

8) Indians, 8/2/1998

9) Red Sox, 7/25/1998

10) Blue Jays, 6/23/1998

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-top-30-prospects-lists-breakdown

[Mass Haas]

ProspectDigest.com

[MadThinker88]

I've been getting the Prospect Digest Handbook for the past few years.

I really like the work done by Joseph Werner & I would recommend the book to anyone interested. The book typically goes top 15 or 20 per organization. The website give the top 10 names & reports per organization for free.

 

That said, the book also provides a ranking of the farm systems. He sees the NL Central like this:

Pitts: 5

St. Louis: 14

Cinci: 18

ChiCubs: 28

Milwaukee: 29

[MadThinker88]

Fangraphs has continued to post it various prospect listing for each organization. Milwaukee has not had its list published yet but Cleveland had its list posted today.

 

Normally there is not a tie in for the Brewers but that changed this time around since the Indians & Brewers made a deal in Nov 2019.

Mark Mathias was acquired by MKE. Andres Melendez was sent to CLE & Andres made the Tribe list - at #38 (Future Value grade 40 on 20-80 scale).

It might be interesting to see where Andres would have slotted for MKE (once Fangraphs release its MKE list)..

 

Here is the free report on Andres:

 

38. Andres Melendez, C

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (MIL)

Age 19.0 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40

 

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw

25/50 45/50 20/35 45/40 45/55 55/55

 

Melendez was acquired during the offseason from Milwaukee for second baseman Mark Mathias. He is a very twitchy, athletic catcher with great defensive mobility. He also has advanced feel for contact and his relatively mature strength lets him hit for gap power. He’s not very projectable so it’s unlikely much power will be part of his profile at peak, but Melendez has a pretty realistic backup catcher outcome, and he has a puncher’s chance to be a low-end regular if he makes a ton of contact, which appears to be in play.

[sveumrules]

Fangraphs has continued to post it various prospect listing for each organization. Milwaukee has not had its list published yet but Cleveland had its list posted today.

 

Normally there is not a tie in for the Brewers but that changed this time around since the Indians & Brewers made a deal in Nov 2019.

Mark Mathias was acquired by MKE. Andres Melendez was sent to CLE & Andres made the Tribe list - at #38 (Future Value grade 40 on 20-80 scale).

It might be interesting to see where Andres would have slotted for MKE (once Fangraphs release its MKE list)...

 

I would guess FG will have Feliciano at 45 with Nottingham & Henry as 40s when they publish their Brewers list.

 

I'd probably rank Melendez behind Jacob & Payton just based on proximity.

[MadThinker88]

I would guess FG will have Feliciano at 45 with Nottingham & Henry as 40s when they publish their Brewers list.

I'd probably rank Melendez behind Jacob & Payton just based on proximity.

 

We wont know where an outsider would ranking inside a particular FV range, but we will see who is also in the that range (along with those in ranges above & below)..

 

I will be curious if/ where Mark Mathias appears on the MKE list..

TBH I was pleasantly surprised to see Andres on the CLE listing as he had not appeared on any other CLE listing this off-season...

[sveumrules]

I would guess FG will have Feliciano at 45 with Nottingham & Henry as 40s when they publish their Brewers list.

I'd probably rank Melendez behind Jacob & Payton just based on proximity.

 

We wont know where an outsider would ranking inside a particular FV range, but we will see who is also in the that range (along with those in ranges above & below)..

 

I will be curious if/ where Mark Mathias appears on the MKE list..

TBH I was pleasantly surprised to see Andres on the CLE listing as he had not appeared on any other CLE listing this off-season...

 

Mathias didn't make FG's Cleveland list prior to 2019 & I don't think he really did anything to change his perceived value during the course of the season so I wouldn't expect to see him on the Brewers list when it is eventually released.

 

FG had a pretty good breakdown of the trade when it went down that gives some possible insight for each team's motivations...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/on-40-man-decision-day-and-the-prospects-who-moved/

[Mass Haas]

FanTraxHQ: Milwaukee Brewers 2020 Top-25 Prospects

 

It's a pretty representative list, with emphasis on the super-young international signees.

[MadThinker88]

Finally got my copy of the BA Prospect Handbook this weekend.

Something BA started last year & continued with this Handbook was a ranking of the top players by position. I went thru this thread and didn't see any reference to it so I have decided to highlight items here.

 

C: Top 10 players listed; No Brewers on the list; No players on list from division rival

1B: Top 10 players listed; No Brewers on the list; 1 Pirates prospect (#10)

2B: Top 10 players listed; No Brewers on the list; 1 Cubs prospect (#8)

3B: Top 10 players listed; No Brewers on the list; 3 divisional prospects listed (Cards #2, Pirates #4, Reds #6)

SS: Top 20 players listed; B Turang is #17, no other Brewers the list; 2 divisional prospects listed (Cubs #9, Pirates #10)

 

CF: Top 20 players listed; No Brewers on the list; 1 Cards prospect (#19)

Corner OF: Top 10 players listed; No Brewers on the list; 1 Cards prospect (#3)

 

RHP: Top 40 players listed; No Brewers on the list; 3 divisional prospects listed (Pirates #12, Reds #20, Cards #32)

LHP: Top 15 players listed; No Brewers on the list; 2 divisional prospects listed (Cubs #8, Reds #12)

 

Its a sobering viewpoint from an outside prospective, especially compared to other teams in the division. This not only has an impact for the Brewer future but also determining trade assets if the Brewers need to add a piece (or 3) as it contends for a post-season berth..