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Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020

reillymcshane

By reillymcshane,
in Milwaukee Brewers Talk

rickh150 Carolina Mudcats

rickh150

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My guess is that the Brewers look to sign Hader to a 2 or 3 year deal to save a little arbitration projection cost, ala what they did with Fielder in years before FA. This would still give the team a year or two to either trade him or play with a long term deal before FA. I don't think they want to battle Hader each offseason in arbitration... not the most healthy relationship between team and player.
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DHonks Carolina Mudcats

DHonks

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My guess is that the Brewers look to sign Hader to a 2 or 3 year deal to save a little arbitration projection cost, ala what they did with Fielder in years before FA. This would still give the team a year or two to either trade him or play with a long term deal before FA. I don't think they want to battle Hader each offseason in arbitration... not the most healthy relationship between team and player.

 

They can try, it that would seem foolish. In arbitration he’ll get $4-5 million in 2020, 6-8 million in 2021, 12-15 million in 2022. Are we offering 3 years $22milion? That would be low end

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MrTPlush Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

MrTPlush

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My guess is that the Brewers look to sign Hader to a 2 or 3 year deal to save a little arbitration projection cost, ala what they did with Fielder in years before FA. This would still give the team a year or two to either trade him or play with a long term deal before FA. I don't think they want to battle Hader each offseason in arbitration... not the most healthy relationship between team and player.

 

They can try, it that would seem foolish. In arbitration he’ll get $4-5 million in 2020, 6-8 million in 2021, 12-15 million in 2022. Are we offering 3 years $22milion? That would be low end

 

He gets four years of arbitration.

 

Jeremy Jeffress sucking rocks cost the Brewers a whole lot of future money. Forcing Hader into the full time closer role was a gift to him in arbitration. Last I checked the arbitration process for relievers still goes crazy for saves. Betances got $3mil his first time through arbitration because he didn't have much saves in his career. Well...we just gave Hader nearly 40 saves last year.

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BrewForLife Prep Ball

BrewForLife

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I am not sure where this offseason will end up...some very tough choices will have to be made.

 

Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM Try and trade him for a Nick Gordon type player so that Arcia can walk/be packaged for a young starter like another Faria.

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM Totally depends on which Jimmy shows up and how his offseason tape looks

Hernan Perez – $3.0MM I would not do it...I would keep Spang and TAustin for 3mil

Corey Knebel – $5.125MM Oh yes

Alex Claudio – $2.2MM Easy yes considering he got better and threw in over half the games. Trades takes a toll on players and he should be better from the beginning...not too long ago he was a closer in TEX.

Travis Shaw – $4.7MM Stearns already hinted that a hedged bet is in play here.

Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout Yes unless they package him and bring up Freitas/JNott.

Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM Yes, very flexible and showed some spunk at the end off last year...sadly, out of options.

Zach Davies – $5.0MM Great question, but if Chase is traded, Jimmy doesn't have it, Wheeler et al sign elsewhere, then who are you going to start next to Woody?

Junior Guerra – $3.5MM I like him a lot, but I was happier when he had options.

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM We are going to need a lot of these types of players to fill that San Antonio roster because the Brewers are not ready to show AAA prospects yet.

Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM I cannot see it unless capital is spent in the rotation, catcher, 3B, etc and he has to stay because there are no more moves to make.

Ben Gamel – $1.6MM I like him a lot, but I was happier when he had options.

Brent Suter – $900K Oh yes.

Tyler Austin – $1.2MM IMO, I feel a lot of you missed this one. Re-read his MLB prospect scouting report. This is found money to Stearns and the Brewers who have Leonard and Gatewood at 1B. He stays and he makes the team to see if he is the future 1B after Thames leaves. There is no one else ready to come in and we cannot overpay for free agents at every position. Maybe Braun finally transitions to make more room for Grisham, but I am thinking that he can settle in and .850 OPS a year or two from now.

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wntrtxn21 Draft Eligible

wntrtxn21

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I am not sure where this offseason will end up...some very tough choices will have to be made.

 

Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM Try and trade him for a Nick Gordon type player so that Arcia can walk/be packaged for a young starter like another Faria.

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM Totally depends on which Jimmy shows up and how his offseason tape looks

Hernan Perez – $3.0MM I would not do it...I would keep Spang and TAustin for 3mil

Corey Knebel – $5.125MM Oh yes

Alex Claudio – $2.2MM Easy yes considering he got better and threw in over half the games. Trades takes a toll on players and he should be better from the beginning...not too long ago he was a closer in TEX.

Travis Shaw – $4.7MM Stearns already hinted that a hedged bet is in play here.

Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout Yes unless they package him and bring up Freitas/JNott.

Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM Yes, very flexible and showed some spunk at the end off last year...sadly, out of options.

Zach Davies – $5.0MM Great question, but if Chase is traded, Jimmy doesn't have it, Wheeler et al sign elsewhere, then who are you going to start next to Woody?

Junior Guerra – $3.5MM I like him a lot, but I was happier when he had options.

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM We are going to need a lot of these types of players to fill that San Antonio roster because the Brewers are not ready to show AAA prospects yet.

Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM I cannot see it unless capital is spent in the rotation, catcher, 3B, etc and he has to stay because there are no more moves to make.

Ben Gamel – $1.6MM I like him a lot, but I was happier when he had options.

Brent Suter – $900K Oh yes.

Tyler Austin – $1.2MM IMO, I feel a lot of you missed this one. Re-read his MLB prospect scouting report. This is found money to Stearns and the Brewers who have Leonard and Gatewood at 1B. He stays and he makes the team to see if he is the future 1B after Thames leaves. There is no one else ready to come in and we cannot overpay for free agents at every position. Maybe Braun finally transitions to make more room for Grisham, but I am thinking that he can settle in and .850 OPS a year or two from now.

 

I think Nelson is already making $3.7M so his arby number may be higher. I'm not sure Claudio is a fit with the new 3 batter rule. I think Pina stays no matter what. Freitas is not an option for anything buy AAA again. CC didn't trust him to catch even one inning when Pina got hurt. Nottingham may be the backup catcher if Stearns can't re-sign Grandal. I really agree on Anderson. I think he's going to be too pricey for a 4 inning pitcher. If they trade him the return, like you said, won't be much. I still don't see Austin as anything even after re-reading the rookie scouting report. Obviously the report was wrong. Austin's last 3 years: .225/.283 (small sample) - .236/.294 - .188/.296....I would rather see Stearns sign a vet at $1.5-2M range who can play 1B and pinch hit.

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Roderick First Round Pick

Roderick

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Perez was outrighted and declared free agency.

 

He'll probably end up signing a minor lg. deal or a low cost MLB deal. I wouldn't be surprised if Stearns offered him $1M to stay. Not a big loss if he goes.

 

I wouldn't mind that. But with one more bench player on the roster, the value of a super utility guy is lessened.

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djoctagone Carolina Mudcats

djoctagone

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MLB Trade Rumors has released their arbitration estimates for 2020. They are usually pretty good about their estimates, but are not perfect. No matter, it's nice to see some numbers as the club puts together next year's club.

 

Brent Suter – $900K

 

Full list: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html

suter is headed to arbitration.

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adambr2 All-Star

adambr2

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Yeah, it's $3.4M for '20 and '21.

 

I'm trying to understand the motive here from the Brewers' perspective. They basically give Suter his $1.25M ask without a hearing then essentially almost double it for 2021? Wouldn't it have been likely cheaper just to go to arbitration twice?

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clancyphile Carolina Mudcats

clancyphile

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Yeah, it's $3.4M for '20 and '21.

 

I'm trying to understand the motive here from the Brewers' perspective. They basically give Suter his $1.25M ask without a hearing then essentially almost double it for 2021? Wouldn't it have been likely cheaper just to go to arbitration twice?

 

Suter has started and relieved.

 

Either way, this deal is a bargain.

 

Looking over his career splits (https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=suterbr01&year=Career&t=p) as a reliever, we see a 1.29 ERA, 0.966 WHIP, 4.10 K/BB is quite good. As dominating as Josh Hader in his own way. Team him with Drew Rasmussen, Clayton Andrews, and QTC... and I have four multi-inning capable relievers for about 60% of Hader's salary. Nasty Boys 2020.

 

As a starter? Over his career, 34 starts, 4.28 ERA. And I get him for $3.4 million over two years?

 

This is why I wish Roegner hadn't been released, and why I am excited about pitchers like Zavolas and Sunitsch. They don't have overpowering stuff, but they'll be solid 3.50-4.50 starters. And the Crew has a bunch of those types in AAA/AA this year.

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KeithStone53151 Carolina Mudcats

KeithStone53151

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Correction was issued on Suter's deal, it is 2 years, $2.5M. That makes a lot more sense on my question of why the Brewers would be motivated to do it.

 

I tend to agree that $3.4M wouldn't make sense, too high. But at the same time $2.5M seems a bit too low. If Suter lost, he'd probably get like $1.4-$1.6 in 2021 if he threw 120 innings of 3.75-4.5 ERA ball. If he won and hit those stats, he'd get $2-2.2 probably. So most likely scenarios are $2.2-2.4 if he lost and $3.2-3.5 if he won in arbitration. I suppose there is always the possibility he's pure trash this year and would get cut...so the 2 year guarantee is probably appealing for him. I guess if you factor all the scenarios, it's probably overall about right or maybe a bit on the team friendly side.

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