Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020

[TURBO]

My fear is that we let Moose walk, rolling the dice on Shaw, and that he is 2019 Travis Shaw.

 

I'm not sure I can watch another season of that version...

[MrTPlush]

My fear is that we let Moose walk, rolling the dice on Shaw, and that he is 2019 Travis Shaw.

 

I'm not sure I can watch another season of that version...

 

They would probably cut bait after a month and Hernan Perez would be the 3B.

 

[sarcasm]So that's good right?[/sarcasm]

[JohnBriggs12]

Moving on from Shaw right now would be kinda crazy imo. He fell so precipitously that you almost think it has to be a solvable issue.

 

Not crazy if they find a way to keep Moustakas. If it were easily solvable, why did he still look as lost at the end of the season? Look I don't think Shaw has much value if he becomes a FA. No contending team would take him. Even rebuilding clubs would structure a heavily incentive laden deal with a low base.

[JohnBriggs12]

Moving on from Shaw right now would be kinda crazy imo. He fell so precipitously that you almost think it has to be a solvable issue.

 

Not crazy if they find a way to keep Moustakas. If it were easily solvable, why did he still look as lost at the end of the season? Look I don't think Shaw has much value if he becomes a FA. No contending team would take him. Even rebuilding clubs would structure a heavily incentive laden deal with a low base.

 

I don't think investing under $4 million in Nelson is a bad idea. His last couple appearances, his stuff was nasty and he might play very well as a late inning reliever if that's his focus from day one.

[MrTPlush]

One thing to keep in mind with our tight payroll...Nelson and Shaw's amounts aren't high by themselves, but when you start signing a few risky guys to take a shot on suddenly you have almost $8mil in those two alone. Throw in Guerra and even Knebel...pushing like $15mil in roll the dice type players. Knebel very well may not be that good next year. Id rather cut bait on Nelson/Shaw if that means Pomeranz comes back (and wouldn't if we spend so much on these arby guys).

[brooks_quichenick]

McCalvy says Hader is Arbitration Eligible as a Super Two

 

[djoctagone]

gotta add josh hader to the mix as super two.

[wildcat83]

Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM NO

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM NO

Hernan Perez – $3.0MM NO

Corey Knebel – $5.125MM YES

Alex Claudio – $2.2MM NO

Travis Shaw – $4.7MM NO OR TRADE IF POSSIBLE

Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout YES

Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM NO

Zach Davies – $5.0MM YES

Junior Guerra – $3.5MM YES

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM NO

Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM YES

Ben Gamel – $1.6MM YES

Brent Suter – $900K YES

Tyler Austin – $1.2MM NO

 

A lot of BP arms. Guys like Nelson/Claudio aren’t terrible options, but I’d rather dump them and put the money towards Pomeranz. Obviously any of the “NOs” I’d trade if possible, but Shaw seems like the only one that could garner some trade value (albeit very little). We may see ourselves offer to him and just release him if Moustakas comes back...essentially a low cost insurance god forbid we need to roll the dice on him.

 

 

Thought it was odd that you’d take Guerra at the same price over Nelson. I would actually lean the other way. To me Nelson has a chance at a higher ceiling. It’s a gamble for sure, but he had some good flashes down the stretch. Guerra to me is what he is. Decent option if he’s your 6/7th reliever. Brewers as a small market I guess I’m more willing to take a chance on higher upside.

[Roderick]

Moving on from Shaw right now would be kinda crazy imo. He fell so precipitously that you almost think it has to be a solvable issue.

 

Yeah, but McGehee and to some extent (over two years) Bill Hall had huge dropoffs that happened even younger than Shaw. I do not trust Shaw to come back to 2017-8 form. My best case is thinking in the area of .725OPS. So I am almost ready to say no tender regardless if Moose goes elsewhere.

[long ball]

McCalvy says Hader is Arbitration Eligible as a Super Two

 

 

It will be interesting to see what his salary projection is. In the 2 minutes I spent looking on sportac I couldn't find a good comp.

 

I'm sure the Brewers were planning for this to be a possibility, but $600k is a pretty big difference from $5mm or whatever he will get in arbitration.

[Jopal78]

Jonathon Papelbon got 6.25 million first first time through arbitration, and Trevor Rosenthal got 5.6 million his first time. I'd figure Hader probably aims for around 6 and the team offers 5 million

[Outlander]

Holy cow that cutoff is low this year, guess it was bound to happen if everybody waits to bring up prospects.

[KeithStone53151]

Jonathon Papelbon got 6.25 million first first time through arbitration, and Trevor Rosenthal got 5.6 million his first time. I'd figure Hader probably aims for around 6 and the team offers 5 million

 

Those are good numbers to look at, but those are also a few years old. He'd be completely justified aiming higher. His ratios are off the charts for a reliever. Based on these numbers, I'd be surprised if Hader got less than 6 this year.

[adambr2]

Oof, that's great news for Hader, not great news for the Brewers. That news alone adds probably 5M to our payroll.

[SeaBass]

I know every season is different when it comes to the Super 2 cut off, but looking at Hader's debut being June 10, 2017 and comparing to Hiura's debut this season, it's not looking good for the Brewers avoiding Hiura's Super 2 status.

 

Hiura debuted May 14, spent 21 days with the Brewers going back down on June 3rd, spending 25 days in the minors until returning on June 28th. Removing the gap and just going by games played it would be as if Hiura had debuted on June 7th. Yikes. Really have to hope Hader's debut season was an outlier.

[JosephC]

I know every season is different when it comes to the Super 2 cut off, but looking at Hader's debut being June 10, 2017 and comparing to Hiura's debut this season, it's not looking good for the Brewers avoiding Hiura's Super 2 status.

 

 

You should have said that it's not looking good for Brewer fans, especially those with tickets for games during the first couple weeks of 2020. Because if Stearns thinks Hiura will be Super 2 eligible, then Keston is probably beginning the season in AAA. He has options left, there would be nothing preventing the Brewers from doing this.

 

EDIT - I counted Hiura's day of service time and came up with 114. Considering how unusually low 115 is, I think it would be a pretty safe assumption that Hiura will not be Super 2 eligible when the time comes.

[Outlander]

The Brewers wouldn't get away with demoting Hiura to start the year. Plus, he has to be down a couple of weeks just to impact 1 day of service time. Being down 2 weeks does nothing.

[LouisEly]

MLB Trade Rumors has released their arbitration estimates for 2020. They are usually pretty good about their estimates, but are not perfect. No matter, it's nice to see some numbers as the club puts together next year's club.

 

Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM - No, use that salary to sign Lyles and Gio

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM - Yes, worth the risk

Hernan Perez – $3.0MM - No

Corey Knebel – $5.125MM - Yes, but I doubt he gets that much because he missed the entire year

Alex Claudio – $2.2MM - Yes

Travis Shaw – $4.7MM - Worth the risk, cut in spring training if still looks bad

Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout - Yes, easiest decision yet

Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM - Yes, replaces Perez at half the cost

Zach Davies – $5.0MM - Yes, tied with Pina for easiest decision

Junior Guerra – $3.5MM - Probably; faded in September but great in August and July

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM - Unsure; doubt he was as bad as he was, not a big investment

Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM - Yes

Ben Gamel – $1.6MM - Yes

Brent Suter – $900K - Tops Pina and Davies for easiest decision

Tyler Austin – $1.2MM - No

 

Full list: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html

[Baldkin]

I know every season is different when it comes to the Super 2 cut off, but looking at Hader's debut being June 10, 2017 and comparing to Hiura's debut this season, it's not looking good for the Brewers avoiding Hiura's Super 2 status.

 

 

You should have said that it's not looking good for Brewer fans, especially those with tickets for games during the first couple weeks of 2020. Because if Stearns thinks Hiura will be Super 2 eligible, then Keston is probably beginning the season in AAA. He has options left, there would be nothing preventing the Brewers from doing this.

 

EDIT - I counted Hiura's day of service time and came up with 114. Considering how unusually low 115 is, I think it would be a pretty safe assumption that Hiura will not be Super 2 eligible when the time comes.

 

Except, as more teams manipulate the system to keep good players in the minors longer that date is going to continue to get lower and lower.

[MrTPlush]

Thought it was odd that you’d take Guerra at the same price over Nelson. I would actually lean the other way. To me Nelson has a chance at a higher ceiling. It’s a gamble for sure, but he had some good flashes down the stretch. Guerra to me is what he is. Decent option if he’s your 6/7th reliever. Brewers as a small market I guess I’m more willing to take a chance on higher upside.

 

All about balancing upside and production. I don't think we can afford to spend so much on gambles on a tight payroll. They are pretty interchangeable I suppose.

 

Nelson

Knebel

Claudio

Shaw

Arcia

Guerra

 

All of these guys have small figures, but add them up and suddenly you find yourself talking about $20mil+.

 

While, yes, these guys can get arbitration and be cut for a small chunk that would still effect how you approach the winter with all that money potentially tied up. However, cases like that are pretty rare...so if we offer to a bunch of iffy guys you can probably write them onto the 2020 roster.

[Pugger]

Alex Claudio – $2.2MM NO

 

The only one I disagree with you on. They paid Boone Logan nearly that much to sit at home last year.

 

I'm with you about Claudio too.

[Pugger]

I’d offer everyone except Austin, Spangenberg, and Perez. I would hope to trade Anderson and Davies

 

I understand about Anderson but why Davies?

[DHonks]

I’d offer everyone except Austin, Spangenberg, and Perez. I would hope to trade Anderson and Davies

 

I understand about Anderson but why Davies?

 

His velocity was dramatically down this year. His off-speed offerings aren’t special. Pretty soon his pay will be higher than his performance. If a team wants to overpay for either, I’d do it. Gaining prospects while clearing payroll is my goal.

[Pugger]

When can we begin to sign/renew players?

[MrTPlush]

When can we begin to sign/renew players?

 

You could sign them to an agreed contract any time you feel. Though doing so while the postseason is still going on is pretty frowned upon.

 

If we are just tendering a contract (thus going to arbitration if a dollar amount can’t be agreed on) you have to wait for the end of the season and do so before the start of the next season. This year I believe that day is December 2nd.