Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020

[reillymcshane]

MLB Trade Rumors has released their arbitration estimates for 2020. They are usually pretty good about their estimates, but are not perfect. No matter, it's nice to see some numbers as the club puts together next year's club.

 

Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM

Hernan Perez – $3.0MM

Corey Knebel – $5.125MM

Alex Claudio – $2.2MM

Travis Shaw – $4.7MM

Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout

Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM

Zach Davies – $5.0MM

Junior Guerra – $3.5MM

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM

Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM

Ben Gamel – $1.6MM

Brent Suter – $900K

Tyler Austin – $1.2MM

 

Full list: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html

[MrTPlush]

Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM NO

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM NO

Hernan Perez – $3.0MM NO

Corey Knebel – $5.125MM YES

Alex Claudio – $2.2MM NO

Travis Shaw – $4.7MM NO OR TRADE IF POSSIBLE

Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout YES

Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM NO

Zach Davies – $5.0MM YES

Junior Guerra – $3.5MM YES

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM NO

Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM YES

Ben Gamel – $1.6MM YES

Brent Suter – $900K YES

Tyler Austin – $1.2MM NO

 

A lot of BP arms. Guys like Nelson/Claudio aren’t terrible options, but I’d rather dump them and put the money towards Pomeranz. Obviously any of the “NOs” I’d trade if possible, but Shaw seems like the only one that could garner some trade value (albeit very little). We may see ourselves offer to him and just release him if Moustakas comes back...essentially a low cost insurance god forbid we need to roll the dice on him.

[PeaveyFury]

Alex Claudio – $2.2MM NO

 

The only one I disagree with you on. They paid Boone Logan nearly that much to sit at home last year.

[nate82]

Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM: Yes but trade to the Angels and send $4m for Maitan and Yan

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM: offer no but try and sign to a MiLB contract

Hernan Perez – $3.0MM: No

Corey Knebel – $5.125MM: Yes

Alex Claudio – $2.2MM: Yes

Travis Shaw – $4.7MM: Yes

Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout: Yes

Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM: No

Zach Davies – $5.0MM: Yes

Junior Guerra – $3.5MM: NO

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM: GOD NO

Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM: Yes unfortunately

Ben Gamel – $1.6MM: Yes

Brent Suter – $900K: Yes

Tyler Austin – $1.2MM: offer no but try and sign to a MiLB contract

 

So about $23m in arbitration including the $4m being sent to the Angels. I don't see Moustakas coming back so Shaw will need to be offered arbitration as there really isn't another good option in free agency. If Moustakas is not coming back I would really want Austin back and depending on the SS FA market Spangenburg wouldn't be a bad option to bring back either.

[clancyphile]

Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM - EXERCISE OPTIONS FOR 2020 and 2021, TRY TO TRADE

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM - NON-TENDER, NRI

Hernan Perez – $3.0MM - TENDER

Corey Knebel – $5.125MM - TENDER

Alex Claudio – $2.2MM - TENDER, BUT TRY TO TRADE

Travis Shaw – $4.7MM - TENDER, BUT TRY TO TRADE

Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout - TENDER

Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM - TENDER

Zach Davies – $5.0MM - TENDER

Junior Guerra – $3.5MM - TENDER

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM - NON-TENDER

Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM - TENDER, BUT TRY TO TRADE

Ben Gamel – $1.6MM - TENDER, BUT TRY TO TRADE

Brent Suter – $900K - TENDER (Extend?)

Tyler Austin – $1.2MM - NON-TENDER

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM NO

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM NO

Hernan Perez – $3.0MM NO

Corey Knebel – $5.125MM YES

Alex Claudio – $2.2MM NO

Travis Shaw – $4.7MM NO OR TRADE IF POSSIBLE

Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout YES

Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM NO

Zach Davies – $5.0MM YES

Junior Guerra – $3.5MM YES

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM NO

Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM YES

Ben Gamel – $1.6MM YES

Brent Suter – $900K YES

Tyler Austin – $1.2MM NO

 

A lot of BP arms. Guys like Nelson/Claudio aren’t terrible options, but I’d rather dump them and put the money towards Pomeranz. Obviously any of the “NOs” I’d trade if possible, but Shaw seems like the only one that could garner some trade value (albeit very little). We may see ourselves offer to him and just release him if Moustakas comes back...essentially a low cost insurance god forbid we need to roll the dice on him.

 

I get it if that's what you want, but if the questions is what will the Brewers do, there is no way they non-tender all those guys in my opinion. Remmeber that arb salaries are not guaranteed. I think Jimmy gets tendered for sure, and Caludio is a no doubter. Perez is a maybe. Shaw is also a maybe, but perhaps trending toward no. I think Spangenberg is a pretty sure yes.

[MrTPlush]

Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM NO

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM NO

Hernan Perez – $3.0MM NO

Corey Knebel – $5.125MM YES

Alex Claudio – $2.2MM NO

Travis Shaw – $4.7MM NO OR TRADE IF POSSIBLE

Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout YES

Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM NO

Zach Davies – $5.0MM YES

Junior Guerra – $3.5MM YES

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM NO

Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM YES

Ben Gamel – $1.6MM YES

Brent Suter – $900K YES

Tyler Austin – $1.2MM NO

 

A lot of BP arms. Guys like Nelson/Claudio aren’t terrible options, but I’d rather dump them and put the money towards Pomeranz. Obviously any of the “NOs” I’d trade if possible, but Shaw seems like the only one that could garner some trade value (albeit very little). We may see ourselves offer to him and just release him if Moustakas comes back...essentially a low cost insurance god forbid we need to roll the dice on him.

 

I get it if that's what you want, but if the questions is what will the Brewers do, there is no way they non-tender all those guys in my opinion. Remmeber that arb salaries are not guaranteed. I think Jimmy gets tendered for sure, and Caludio is a no doubter. Perez is a maybe. Shaw is also a maybe, but perhaps trending toward no. I think Spangenberg is a pretty sure yes.

How many utility guys are you tendering? They have already bashed SS and how it needs to change. $3mil for Perez? Highly doubt that...why would we do that? Half those guys can just get invites or pick one of the 50 or so similar players sitting out there.

 

They may tender Claudio, wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t have a huge problem there. They may tender Nelson too.

 

Anderson is also a likely accept option and trade candidate. Forgot to mention that. I’d guess Shaw is the same if they get Moustakas back.

[DHonks]

I’d offer everyone except Austin, Spangenberg, and Perez. I would hope to trade Anderson and Davies

[folly412]

Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM NO

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM NO

Hernan Perez – $3.0MM NO

Corey Knebel – $5.125MM YES

Alex Claudio – $2.2MM NO

Travis Shaw – $4.7MM NO OR TRADE IF POSSIBLE

Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout YES

Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM NO

Zach Davies – $5.0MM YES

Junior Guerra – $3.5MM YES

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM NO

Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM YES

Ben Gamel – $1.6MM YES

Brent Suter – $900K YES

Tyler Austin – $1.2MM NO

 

Also agree with all of this other than Claudio. Could see the argument if the pen ends up having Suter, Hader, and Pomeranz already, but he's cheap enough to carry or be an easy trade.

 

Shaw is a challenging one to figure out. It's a killer if we throw that number out on a below replacement level player like 2019 Shaw, but it would be paying a third of the value that 2017-2018 Shaw brought. The expected price is pretty much a coin flip between those two outcomes.

 

We'll also see where the SS talk from Stearns leads. Arcia isn't expensive, which should make a trade doable if they decide to move on.

[reillymcshane]

I get it if that's what you want, but if the questions is what will the Brewers do, there is no way they non-tender all those guys in my opinion. Remmeber that arb salaries are not guaranteed. I think Jimmy gets tendered for sure, and Caludio is a no doubter. Perez is a maybe. Shaw is also a maybe, but perhaps trending toward no. I think Spangenberg is a pretty sure yes.

I believe the club can cut the player before final rosters are set, but they still owe 1/6 of the agreed upon salary (whether via arbitration or just agreeing on a figure).

 

Thus a guy like Shaw, even if we agree to a $4.7M salary, could be cut prior to the start of the year and the club would own him roughly $780,000. So offering arbitration still has a financial pitfall if you don't keep the player.

[CheezWizHed]

Jimmy will be interesting. $3.7M for his potential as a SP is interesting. But given some of the goings-on to keep him at AAA, the team might move on. But it will be interesting to see what the team does here as the behind the scenes info (health, attitudes, etc) will be critical. The money isn't that much for SP depth.

[DHonks]

Can’t players offered arbitration be released by a March deadline at only something like 1/6th salary?

[Roderick]

Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM Yes - option (should have some value over contract for trade if we don't want)

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM No. If a team doesn't agree to arby, they can negotiate with that same player the same as everyone else, right? If so, I would do that with Nelson.

Hernan Perez – $3.0MM NO

Corey Knebel – $5.125MM YES

Alex Claudio – $2.2MM Probably

Travis Shaw – $4.7MM I would hope they figure out 3B before you have to file arby (mid-January ish, right?), I would hate to have to arby Shaw because we haven't been able to sign/trade for a 3B.

Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout YES

Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM Probably, especially if he still has options.

Zach Davies – $5.0MM YES

Junior Guerra – $3.5MM Probably

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM NO

Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM YES

Ben Gamel – $1.6MM YES

Brent Suter – $900K YES

Tyler Austin – $1.2MM NO

[djoctagone]

no to hernan perez and no to tyler saladino.

 

absolute yes to cory spangenberg as the 26th man. versatile and fast. he is out of options, however.

[KeithStone53151]

For these contracts, be sure to keep in mind that even if a player doesn't fit...we can trade said player if they have surplus value. This is how I'm personally viewing Davies. I think he's done being a sub 4 era starter, and I don't find a ton of value in SP with a low-mid 4s ceiling. I think his contract is tradable to plenty of teams, I think we'll have enough SP options that we don't need to keep him. I'll also add Claudio at $2.2M is almost certain to be kept.

 

With Nelson, I wonder if we get him to agree to a deal with an option year before the arbitration deadline. So if he does bounce back to form, we get a cost controlled year of a potentially very valuable player.

[brooks_quichenick]

Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM Yes - but maybe look for a trade partner

Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM Yes

Hernan Perez – $3.0MM No

Corey Knebel – $5.125MM Yes

Alex Claudio – $2.2MM Yes

Travis Shaw – $4.7MM Yes

Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout Yes

Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM Yes

Zach Davies – $5.0MM Yes

Junior Guerra – $3.5MM Yes

Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM No

Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM Yes

Ben Gamel – $1.6MM Yes

Brent Suter – $900K Yes

Tyler Austin – $1.2MM No

[Jopal78]

For these contracts, be sure to keep in mind that even if a player doesn't fit...we can trade said player if they have surplus value. This is how I'm personally viewing Davies. I think he's done being a sub 4 era starter, and I don't find a ton of value in SP with a low-mid 4s ceiling. I think his contract is tradable to plenty of teams, I think we'll have enough SP options that we don't need to keep him. I'll also add Claudio at $2.2M is almost certain to be kept.

 

With Nelson, I wonder if we get him to agree to a deal with an option year before the arbitration deadline. So if he does bounce back to form, we get a cost controlled year of a potentially very valuable player.

 

I don't see any incentive on Nelson's part to agree to a club option. He's already 30 and inching closer to where free agents don't get multi-year guarantees. Second, he has missed nearly two years with injuries. With huge financial consequences, I'd assume he is going to want to bet on himself in hopes of cashing in on a strong 2020 season.

 

If the Brewers don't tender him, I'm almost certain he'd choose to go to a team where he has a clear shot to make the rotation (not necessarily the case with Milwaukee if he took a NRI).

 

Funny thing about Nelson, I was convinced he was finished as a Brewer, then there was that last appearance against Colorado wherein he looked dominant: mid-90s fastball, struck out four of the six hitters he faced. Its the ultimate small sample, but I'd almost be tempted to take a 3.7 million dollar gamble.

 

As for the rest, I assume they will pick up the options on Anderson and Pina.

 

I think they will tender contracts to: Knebel, Claudio, Shaw, Spangenberg, Davies, Guerra, Arcia, Gamel, Suter, and Austin.

 

Shaw was a disaster in '19, but his career OPS with Milwaukee is still .790, he plays solid defense at 3B and has 2 more years of team control, you give those type of players another shot before moving on.

 

Austin will platoon with Thames at 1B and play against LHP. Career marks of .253/.345/.539 against LHP.

 

I've always like Hernan Perez, but players with his skill set are readily available for less than 3 million per.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

For these contracts, be sure to keep in mind that even if a player doesn't fit...we can trade said player if they have surplus value. This is how I'm personally viewing Davies. I think he's done being a sub 4 era starter, and I don't find a ton of value in SP with a low-mid 4s ceiling. I think his contract is tradable to plenty of teams, I think we'll have enough SP options that we don't need to keep him. I'll also add Claudio at $2.2M is almost certain to be kept.

 

With Nelson, I wonder if we get him to agree to a deal with an option year before the arbitration deadline. So if he does bounce back to form, we get a cost controlled year of a potentially very valuable player.

 

Zach Davies is going into his age 27 season. Why in the world would you "think he's done being a sub 4 era starter" besides just not liking the guy? You need to expand on this idea a bit, because I'm just not seeing it. Davies is never going to be a Cy Young-type, but I see no reason why can can't continue to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. The amount of crap he takes around here, simply because he's not throwing his fastball in the upper 90s, is pretty astounding to me.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Moving on from Shaw right now would be kinda crazy imo. He fell so precipitously that you almost think it has to be a solvable issue.

[KeithStone53151]

For these contracts, be sure to keep in mind that even if a player doesn't fit...we can trade said player if they have surplus value. This is how I'm personally viewing Davies. I think he's done being a sub 4 era starter, and I don't find a ton of value in SP with a low-mid 4s ceiling. I think his contract is tradable to plenty of teams, I think we'll have enough SP options that we don't need to keep him. I'll also add Claudio at $2.2M is almost certain to be kept.

 

With Nelson, I wonder if we get him to agree to a deal with an option year before the arbitration deadline. So if he does bounce back to form, we get a cost controlled year of a potentially very valuable player.

 

I don't see any incentive on Nelson's part to agree to a club option. He's already 30 and inching closer to where free agents don't get multi-year guarantees. Second, he has missed nearly two years with injuries. With huge financial consequences, I'd assume he is going to want to bet on himself in hopes of cashing in on a strong 2020 season.

 

If the Brewers don't tender him, I'm almost certain he'd choose to go to a team where he has a clear shot to make the rotation (not necessarily the case with Milwaukee if he took a NRI).

 

Funny thing about Nelson, I was convinced he was finished as a Brewer, then there was that last appearance against Colorado wherein he looked dominant: mid-90s fastball, struck out four of the six hitters he faced. Its the ultimate small sample, but I'd almost be tempted to take a 3.7 million dollar gamble.

 

I'm not entirely certain he'd get a major league deal elsewhere after 2+ lost seasons. A club option is a big benefit to us taking the risk giving guaranteed money. He might get a chance with a team like the marlins or orioles, if he wants to try and play on a losing team that will probably be bad defensively behind him. Offering him $2.5m this year with a $7m option and $1m buyout for 2021 would be a pretty good offer. In fairness, Nelson's market is pretty tough to gauge in his situation...30 years old, 2 years from pitching effectively, but still showing promise. I do hope we find a way to keep him and love the idea of a contract with an option year.

[KeithStone53151]

For these contracts, be sure to keep in mind that even if a player doesn't fit...we can trade said player if they have surplus value. This is how I'm personally viewing Davies. I think he's done being a sub 4 era starter, and I don't find a ton of value in SP with a low-mid 4s ceiling. I think his contract is tradable to plenty of teams, I think we'll have enough SP options that we don't need to keep him. I'll also add Claudio at $2.2M is almost certain to be kept.

 

With Nelson, I wonder if we get him to agree to a deal with an option year before the arbitration deadline. So if he does bounce back to form, we get a cost controlled year of a potentially very valuable player.

 

Zach Davies is going into his age 27 season. Why in the world would you "think he's done being a sub 4 era starter" besides just not liking the guy? You need to expand on this idea a bit, because I'm just not seeing it. Davies is never going to be a Cy Young-type, but I see no reason why can can't continue to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. The amount of crap he takes around here, simply because he's not throwing his fastball in the upper 90s, is pretty astounding to me.

 

This year, Davies was basically a 2 pitch pitcher. For me, sinker/cutter and changeup are basically 2 pitches...sinker and cutter aren't different enough at the speed he throws to really fool anyone...plus he only threw the cutter 11%. Generally, 2 pitch starters are not successful. There are exceptions, those exceptions usually have 2 plus pitches...while Davies has a plus change/command with far below average everything else. Also, through the year...the spin rate on all of Davies pitches decreased pretty steadily. As it did, his results went with it. Which tells me he either wore down or was pitching through an injury. If you also factor in the arms we have available and the upside we have available, keeping someone like Davies seems just crazy to me. We have Woodruff, Suter, Houser that we can basically lock into the rotation along with a ton of options to compete for rotation spots. And I know people want to bring back Lyles if possible, which would be a 4th spot gone.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

For these contracts, be sure to keep in mind that even if a player doesn't fit...we can trade said player if they have surplus value. This is how I'm personally viewing Davies. I think he's done being a sub 4 era starter, and I don't find a ton of value in SP with a low-mid 4s ceiling. I think his contract is tradable to plenty of teams, I think we'll have enough SP options that we don't need to keep him. I'll also add Claudio at $2.2M is almost certain to be kept.

 

With Nelson, I wonder if we get him to agree to a deal with an option year before the arbitration deadline. So if he does bounce back to form, we get a cost controlled year of a potentially very valuable player.

 

Zach Davies is going into his age 27 season. Why in the world would you "think he's done being a sub 4 era starter" besides just not liking the guy? You need to expand on this idea a bit, because I'm just not seeing it. Davies is never going to be a Cy Young-type, but I see no reason why can can't continue to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. The amount of crap he takes around here, simply because he's not throwing his fastball in the upper 90s, is pretty astounding to me.

 

This year, Davies was basically a 2 pitch pitcher. For me, sinker/cutter and changeup are basically 2 pitches...sinker and cutter aren't different enough at the speed he throws to really fool anyone...plus he only threw the cutter 11%. Generally, 2 pitch starters are not successful. There are exceptions, those exceptions usually have 2 plus pitches...while Davies has a plus change/command with far below average everything else. Also, through the year...the spin rate on all of Davies pitches decreased pretty steadily. As it did, his results went with it. Which tells me he either wore down or was pitching through an injury. If you also factor in the arms we have available and the upside we have available, keeping someone like Davies seems just crazy to me. We have Woodruff, Suter, Houser that we can basically lock into the rotation along with a ton of options to compete for rotation spots. And I know people want to bring back Lyles if possible, which would be a 4th spot gone.

 

Thanks for the well-thought-out response. While I disagree, I appreciate you backing up your thoughts with numbers that support them. I suppose my only counter would be that, when healthy, Davies has proven to be a solid mid-3 ERA starting pitcher for a pretty large sample now. He had some bumps in the road this season, but more or less was good after he got over his mid-season lull which I would contend was caused by an injury he was trying to pitch through. I have a hard time seeing Suter as a lock for the rotation as well. He was so good in that multi-inning relief role this season that I think there is just as likely a chance that he's kept there as there is he being moved back into the rotation. As the Brewers proved this year, you can never have enough solid starting pitching options. They got very lucky with Lyles, but how often are you going to be able to pull a guy off the scrap heap and see him pitch like an ace? Sure, if another team makes a great offer on Davies, you have to consider it. But I personally don't see him going anywhere. I see him back as the #3-4 guy in next year's rotation.

[TURBO]

Suter locked into the rotation?

 

I question that statement.

 

I don't think he is going to have the same success we saw in 2019 as a starter. He seems like the kid of guy that would flourish in that 2 - 3 inning relief role, where no one sees him for a second or 3rd time through the order.

 

I'd leave him right where he finished the season rather than looking to add him to the rotation

[adambr2]

Suter isn't locked into a rotation spot. Stearns has really strongly implied that he'll do some of both next year. Basically a long man/swing man role.

[MrTPlush]

Moving on from Shaw right now would be kinda crazy imo. He fell so precipitously that you almost think it has to be a solvable issue.

 

He may turn it around, but if they resign Moustakas there really isn't anywhere to play him. We really going to spend over $5mil for him to ride the bench? I guess we could...but I just don't see how that is to the benefit of us or Shaw. I just think there are better ways to spend money. When you have a lot of talent sometimes you just have to let someone go even if you know they may do well for someone else.

 

I am not really opposed to bringing him back, but I would hope it wouldn't effect other plans/moves.