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What is your 2019-2020 offseason plan for the Brewers?


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Now after non-tender deadline:

Trades:

-get Omar Narvaez from SEA for Freddy Peralta

 

Free agent signings:

-Eric Thames- 1/5.5

-Brock holt- 2/8 - some starts at 3B, LF, and defensive sub at 2B

-Howie Kendrick - 2/14 - 1B, 3B

-Dallas Keuchel - 3/39

-wade Miley - 2/12

-Francisco Cervelli - 1/1.5

-jordan Lyles - 1/5

-Steve cichek- 2/8

 

Lineup:

1B-Thames

2B-Hiura

RF-Yelich

3B-Kendrick

LF-Braun

C-Narvaez

CF-Cain

SS-Urias

 

Bench

C-Pina- start vs LHP and sub on D for Narvaez

OF-Gamel

2B/3B/LF-holt

INF-Arcia

C/1B-Cervelli-allows Narvaez to PH+Pina to sub in D

 

Rotation:

Woodruff, Keuchel, Miley, houser, Lauer

 

Bullpen:

Knebel, Hader, Guerra (resign), cichek, Faria, black, Lyles, Suter

 

* this still leaves $ for mid season moves, minor league deals, and leaves no major holes

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Off Season Moves - VERSION 1

 

- Trade Josh Hader to the Mets for Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith a prospect or two.

- Sign Stephan Strasburg - 6 years/$180M

- Sign Jason Castro 2-years/$12M

- Sign Avisaíl García - 2-years/$14M

- Sign Jordan Lyles - 2-years/$10M

- Sign Josh Lindblom (from Korea) - 2 years/$8M

- Don't tender Shaw, Nelson, Saladino. Saves over $10M.

This would be the perfect offseason, IMO. I would be ecstatic if these were ultimately all the moves made when the dust settles.

 

I'm kind of hesitant with Strasburg - just seems like a guy who might burn out in his early 30's. He'll be 31 next year already. Might be someone else, but I agree with the principle of going big on a SP.

 

Not real big on Garcia either, especially for that price for a backup OF (assuming with those deals Smith 1B, Braun LF, Yelich RF). Assuming Gamel as the 4th OF, for a 5th OF/PH I'd go for Matt Joyce for a one-year, $2M deal. Over the last two seasons Joyce has had roughly a 20% K rate and 15% BB rate.

 

Also look at Derek Dietrich as a soft platoon for Braun/Hiura against tough RHP and to rest Braun, also for 1/$2M. Dietrich had a pretty good year despite a BABIP that was .120(!) below his career average, and has a nice differential between his OBP and BA. Need some LH bats to replace Moose/Grandal/Thames/Shaw. Dietrich is your backup 2B/1B, Arcia is your backup SS/3B.

 

Fills two bench spots for $3M less than Garcia. Use the remaining $3M to bring in a LHRP - need to replace Hader/Pom/Claudio. Same with Lindblom - need to allocate that towards LHRP. Who that is, I have no idea.

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I'm kind of hesitant with Strasburg - just seems like a guy who might burn out in his early 30's. He'll be 31 next year already. Might be someone else, but I agree with the principle of going big on a SP.

 

I really like Strasburg as a player, but really scared of him as well due to his health. He had TJ surgery something 10 years ago. It's something that can recur after such a long time. It would be a huge risk to sign him to six years. But I also understand the reward.

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Now after non-tender deadline:

Trades:

-get Omar Narvaez from SEA for Freddy Peralta

 

Free agent signings:

-Eric Thames- 1/5.5

-Brock holt- 2/8 - some starts at 3B, LF, and defensive sub at 2B

-Howie Kendrick - 2/14 - 1B, 3B

-Dallas Keuchel - 3/39

-wade Miley - 2/12

-Francisco Cervelli - 1/1.5

-jordan Lyles - 1/5

-Steve cichek- 2/8

 

Lineup:

1B-Thames

2B-Hiura

RF-Yelich

3B-Kendrick

LF-Braun

C-Narvaez

CF-Cain

SS-Urias

 

Bench

C-Pina- start vs LHP and sub on D for Narvaez

OF-Gamel

2B/3B/LF-holt

INF-Arcia

C/1B-Cervelli-allows Narvaez to PH+Pina to sub in D

 

Rotation:

Woodruff, Keuchel, Miley, houser, Lauer

 

Bullpen:

Knebel, Hader, Guerra (resign), cichek, Faria, black, Lyles, Suter

 

* this still leaves $ for mid season moves, minor league deals, and leaves no major holes

 

I wonder if they’d be willing to pay a bit more to get Ryu instead of Keuchel as a small upgrade

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All the recent reports make clear that the Brewers are exploring all of their trade options and are monitoring both hitters and pitchers on the free-agent market. They’re also perhaps looking to cut payroll but also spend big. Fans need to realize that Stearns and the Brewers' front office keep their plans incredibly close to the vest ... so this talk of cutting payroll or whatever other crap that Nightengale is spewing literally has no merit whatsoever.
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All the recent reports make clear that the Brewers are exploring all of their trade options and are monitoring both hitters and pitchers on the free-agent market. They’re also perhaps looking to cut payroll but also spend big. Fans need to realize that Stearns and the Brewers' front office keep their plans incredibly close to the vest ... so this talk of cutting payroll or whatever other crap that Nightengale is spewing literally has no merit whatsoever.

 

I noticed the thread was closed already before I could chime in, but this is kind of where I am. Stearns and the Brewers always keep things close to the vest. And with “rival executives” telling him they “undoubtedly” would have a lower payroll, I didn’t know Stearns and Mark A go around telling the other GM’s what their payroll cap is. “We plan on spending $110 million this year and no more!”. Yeah, that makes no sense. Them slashing payroll is to replace their marginal and negative value guys with higher upside, higher floor guys, and possibly make a push for a big name TOR pitcher or all-star caliber bat to pair with Yelich and Hiura. They had so much dead weight from marginal talent last year that they need some fresh blood brought in.

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Alright, so there is a good chance I may get some hate from some people here....but the offense I dont think is as bad as people think.

 

Cf: Cain (Cain was hurt last year and tried to play threw it. Also had a high hard hit % so he had a lot of bad luck. Wont be suprised if he hits 280 with a 350 obp)

 

SS: Luis Urius (He wont bat 2 right away. But had very minimal at bats, and was already better than arcia. He lives up to his hype he's a 300 hitter. But this year I can see hi hitting 270 with also a 350 obp if he's playing everyday.

 

RF: Yeli (He's okay I guess. But if we bat him 3, and 2 guys have a 350 obp he's going to have lot of runners on to do his thing.

 

2b Kdaddy (he's going to be up for a full year....who knows what he'll do. Would anyone be suprised if he already hit 30 hrs and hit 300? he's great insurance behind yeli)

 

Lf Braun (had a very underated year last year)

 

3b: Mcneil, Kendrick, Frazier, Asdrubal Cabrera, Didi maybe?

 

1b: Cron, thames, dom smith, Moreland, Smoak

 

C Pina (can hit 230-240 which I'll take from an 8 hitter, but he provides great defense)

Jason castro: 1 year 4 mil

That's going to be a very solid platoon with good defense

 

The only holes we have are 1st and 3rd on offense. But there are lots of cheap, but productive options that I would take for 6 and 7 hitters.

 

But what if the mets do offer Mcneil and dom smith for a package around Hader?

 

My point being the offense isn't terrible and I'm sure they'll add some talent there that we'll be productive. That being said we have money to spend on pitching.

 

What if we do out and Sign a Keuchel for 15 mil?

 

Also, Make a trade for Robbie Ray. I don't think he'll command turang

 

Woody

Keuchel

Ray

houser

Laur

 

Obviously this is all best case scenario imo...but I beleive the payroll would be below the 122 we had at the start of last year so we'll see.

 

Stearns is going to be creative to fill our needs, so even if we do want to cut payroll im donfident we'll find production and be competitive next year.

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Just sort of looking at the landscape now.

 

Have to figure I probably would have been outbid by the White Sox for Grandal, and would have not come close to matching the offer for Moustakas. So I am out both of those players.

 

Would have gone ahead and done the Anderson and Davies/Grisham deals, so I am out those player but have added Urias, Lauer and Spanberger.

 

Would have kept Thames and offered arbitration to Guerra and Claudio so I still have those three players. Shaw and Nelson are gone in my plan. With the bullpen guaranteed to never drop below 8 pitchers now, I still think there is a role for Claudio. If I had known that the A's were going to not offer arbitration to Ryan Buchter, I would have dumped Claudio and went after Buchter instead.

 

Would have not done the Narvaez trade. I don't like terrible defensive catchers so good luck to the Brewers organization trying to fix that. I have my doubts. Will probably love his bat...but...just not a guy I would have targeted.

 

So my roster would currently look like:

SP = Brandon Woodruff, Adrian Houser, Eric Lauer

RP = Josh Hader, Corey Knebel, Junior Guerra, Alex Claudio, Brent Suter, Ray Black

C = Manny Pina

IF = Eric Thames, Keston Hiura, Luis Urias, Orlando Arcia

OF = Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Ben Gamel

And obviously there are a bunch more candidates for a few of these spots, I'm just naming the locks for the 25 man roster (assuming Knebel is healthy). I'd like to have Freddy Peralta start in AAA to work on his secondary pitches so that's why he is not listed, but I have a feeling he'll wind up on the opening day roster out of pure necessity.

 

So now that we are in December, here are the offers I'd throw out today:

 

RHSP - Kevin Gausman - 1 year, 6.5 million (would be willing to do 2 years if necessary)

RHRP - Blake Treinen - 1 year, 6 million

C - Jason Castro - 2 years, 10 million

RHSP - Taijuan Walker - 1 year, 2 million with incentives that could take the $ way up, maybe even include a generous vesting option

3B/2B - Jung Ho Kang - split contract offer

 

And I'd still be interested in Dallas Keuchel, not sure where the market would be with him, and multiple relievers. And probably would be circling back on Travis Shaw. It looks like it would be him or make a minor trade to try and plug the gap. Also need another infielder and would like to grab another outfielder to compete with Taylor for the last OF spot. If Attanasio green lights a 120 million opening day payroll, then I would still have approximately 25 million to play with even if completing all of the offers above. So I still have enough money to add one big pitcher (not Bumgarner) if the right opportunity is there.

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To this point I couldn't be happier with the off season. That's not blue. I think we murdered the Padres and we got Narvaez on the cheap. I wasn't thrilled with the Anderson return and in hindsight the pitching market has been a little steeper than people expected.

 

I won't go values on all of them, but I want:

Collin McHugh at/under 6 AAV 2 years. 2.67 ERA out of the pen last year. 2.76 career reliever. I see him as a 2 IP option and the in case of Knebel emergency closer. It's time for him to embrace his future in the MLB. That's a big time pen piece.

Cishek 6/1. SU. Look at his stats sway back and forth every other year. Pattern says 2020 is a good year. My hope is that MKE will lock down a traditional 8 9 combo with Cishek and Knebel and everyone else in the pen will be a 2 IP guy besides Claudio if he sticks.

Taijuan Walker 2-3 mil incentive laden for 6. So much upside.

Rich Hill I'd assume around 5-6 mil 1 year. Yes, he'll spend time on the IL. Plenty of it. 36 37 38 39 he has put up 20 25 24 13 starts. His ERA has been a flat 3. Secret ERA weapon. If MKE opened the season healthy at pitcher and all options looked good I'd be tempted to tell him to stub his toe and we'll see you in June. I want him healthy in the playoffs.

Gio Gonzalez I'd assume 4 mil since he got 3 last year. Has pitched fantastic for MKE.

This means one of Walker Hill Gio Lindblom will start in the pen or IL.

Woodruff Hill Gio Houser Lindblom

Claudio optioned Lauer optioned to stay stretched out Burnes getting sorted out.

Black Walker Peralta Suter McHugh Hader Cishek Knebel

 

I want to believe in Houser the starter but I'm not there yet. Out of the pen, I'm sold. I want Lauer and Walker just in case and also due to Gio and Hill being very likely to miss some starts.

 

Offense

Thames back on a 1 year deal under 5 mil.

Wilmer Flores around 4-5 mil aav 2 years. I'm on board with this idea. 2B is going to be a huge boost over what MKE has seen. They can survive a moderate bat at 3b. The lineup is solid and I'd prefer another low K guy. He's only 28 and last year's numbers in AZ are eyebrow raising. Late bloomer?

Brock Holt 4/2. Versatility. OBP.

A RH 1B power bat *ideas welcome*

OR if MKE wants to spend a little and play Braun at 1b

Avisail Garcia 7/2. Allows MKE to opt out of Braun after 2020 and put Yelich back at GG LF. Garcia isn't a great RF, but Yelich really isn't special there either. *ducks*

 

High side 44 million added to the current roster. Only McHugh Flores Holt and Garcia on 2 year deal. None on 3. Tons of starter options, low financial risk.

 

Narvaez Pina

Thames (60 games from Braun) (Holt can play 1b due to injury)

Hiura (Holt spot starts)

Urias Arcia

Flores Holt

Yelich Cain Braun Garcia (120 starts in RF) Gamel (subs Cain, coming around on the idea of trading Gamel and keeping Broxton afterall)

 

RHP Cain Yelich Hiura Thames Garcia/Braun Narvaez Flores Urias

LHP Cain Yelich Hiura Braun Garcia Flores Pina Urias

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As of 12/12/2019, this is what I want.

 

Current payroll at $76M (sportac)

 

Trade with Mets for Lowrie ($9M) & Smith. Send them a low level (non-pitching) prospect. Lets go with Larry Ernesto.

 

Sign Wilmer Flores to 2 yr / $6M (insurance in case Lowrie is hurt or washes out)

 

Sign Dallas Keuchel to 3 yr / $40M

 

Sign Wade Miley to 2 yr / $16M

 

Roster:

C: Navarez / Pina

1B: D. Smith / Flores

2B: Huria / Urias

SS: Urias / Arcia

3B: J. Lowrie / Flores

LF: Braun / Gamel

CF: Cain / T. Taylor

RF: Yelich / Gamel

 

Bench: Pina, Flores, Arcia, Gamel, Taylor

 

SP:

Woodruff

Keuchel

Miley

Houser

J. Lindblaum / Lauer

 

RP:

Hader

Claudio

Suter

Lauer / Lindblaum

Black

Faria

T. Williams

D. Guerra

 

IR: Knebel

AAA Pitching Reinforcements: Burnes, Peralta, Feyereisen, D. Williams, Wahl

 

New Payroll: ~$110M

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As of 12/12/2019, this is what I want.

 

Current payroll at $76M (sportac)

 

Trade with Mets for Lowrie ($9M) & Smith. Send them a low level (non-pitching) prospect. Lets go with Larry Ernesto.

 

Sign Wilmer Flores to 2 yr / $6M (insurance in case Lowrie is hurt or washes out)

 

Sign Dallas Keuchel to 3 yr / $40M

 

Sign Wade Miley to 2 yr / $16M

 

Roster:

C: Navarez / Pina

1B: D. Smith / Flores

2B: Huria / Urias

SS: Urias / Arcia

3B: J. Lowrie / Flores

LF: Braun / Gamel

CF: Cain / T. Taylor

RF: Yelich / Gamel

 

Bench: Pina, Flores, Arcia, Gamel, Taylor

 

SP:

Woodruff

Keuchel

Miley

Houser

J. Lindblaum / Lauer

 

RP:

Hader

Claudio

Suter

Lauer / Lindblaum

Black

Faria

T. Williams

D. Guerra

 

IR: Knebel

AAA Pitching Reinforcements: Burnes, Peralta, Feyereisen, D. Williams, Wahl

 

New Payroll: ~$110M

 

I could see it happening. Unfortunately, I also cannot see us competing for the playoffs with this roster. We struggled on offense last year, can you imagine the struggles with this lineup?

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As of 12/12/2019, this is what I want.

 

Current payroll at $76M (sportac)

 

Trade with Mets for Lowrie ($9M) & Smith. Send them a low level (non-pitching) prospect. Lets go with Larry Ernesto.

 

Sign Wilmer Flores to 2 yr / $6M (insurance in case Lowrie is hurt or washes out)

 

Sign Dallas Keuchel to 3 yr / $40M

 

Sign Wade Miley to 2 yr / $16M

 

Roster:

C: Navarez / Pina

1B: D. Smith / Flores

2B: Huria / Urias

SS: Urias / Arcia

3B: J. Lowrie / Flores

LF: Braun / Gamel

CF: Cain / T. Taylor

RF: Yelich / Gamel

 

Bench: Pina, Flores, Arcia, Gamel, Taylor

 

SP:

Woodruff

Keuchel

Miley

Houser

J. Lindblaum / Lauer

 

RP:

Hader

Claudio

Suter

Lauer / Lindblaum

Black

Faria

T. Williams

D. Guerra

 

IR: Knebel

AAA Pitching Reinforcements: Burnes, Peralta, Feyereisen, D. Williams, Wahl

 

New Payroll: ~$110M

 

I could see it happening. Unfortunately, I also cannot see us competing for the playoffs with this roster. We struggled on offense last year, can you imagine the struggles with this lineup?

 

This type of lineup and you are banking on a few IFs to go right. For offense, you probably have the following base assumptions:

 

-Yelich and Hiura to rake like they they should.

-Braun and Naverez to perform like last year.

 

Then you need probably at least 2 of these 6 IFs to go right:

-D. Smith to live up to his pedigree and shine.

-Urias to live up to his pedigree and shine.

-Lowrie to rebound and hit like he did in 2017 or 2018.

-Cain to rebound and hit like he did in 2017 or 2018.

-Flores to grow on what he did last year and become a solid hitter.

-Arcia to follow the teachings of Jobu and becomes a solid hitter.

 

If you get the main four batters to perform followed by 2 of those IFs, you have 6 solid hitters in your lineup. Three or 4 IFs and you have a stacked lineup. Fix any glaring hole mid-season and thats a decent lineup to work with.

 

If Yelich, Hiura or both stumble, we are probably doomed no matter what. If either Braun or Naverez under perform, you need more of the "IFs" to go right. If we don't get any "IFs", then you try to piece meal a competent roster and lean heavily on the pitching. If the pitching fails, you have a decent group of "next up candidates" to try. If the next up candidates fail as well, then we are doomed no matter what.

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Here is an updated list for anybody interested. If I am missing anyone, let me know!

 

Position Players

 

Braun $17 million

Cain $16 million

Yelich $12.5 million

Hiura $500K

Arcia $2.2 million

Urias $500K

Pina $1.8 million

Gamel $1.4 million

Narvaez (Arb. $2.9 million)

 

Total $54.8

 

Rotation

 

Woodruff $500K

Houser $500K

Lauer $500K

Lindblom $3 million

 

Total $4.5 million

 

Bullpen

 

Hader $5 million

Knebel (Arb. $5.2 million)

Claudio $1.8 million

Suter $1 million

Peralta $500K

Feyereisen $500K

Wahl $500K

 

Total $14.5 million

 

Other Options (not included on payroll list)

 

D. Guerra $500K

D. Williams $500K

Faria $500K

Burnes $500K

 

Buyouts/Deferred Payments

 

Thames $1 million

Moustakas $3 million

Grandal $2.25 million

Garza $2 million

 

Total $8.25 million

 

$54.8 + $4.5 + $14.5 + $8.25 = $82.05 Million Current Payroll

 

Roughly $46 million below last year’s payroll

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Sign Nick Castellanos

 

Trade for Dominic Smith and Jed Lowrie

 

Trade for Kyle Seager

 

 

Lineup

 

1) Lorenzo Cain ®

2) Christian Yelich (L)

3) Nick Castellanos ®

4) Kyle Seager (L)

5) Keston Hiura ®

6) Dominic Smith (L)

7) Omar Narvaez (L)

8) Luis Urias ®

 

Bench

 

Manny Pina ®

Ryan Braun ®

Orlando Arcia ®

Ben Gamel (L)

Jed Lowrie (S)

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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Sign Nick Castellanos

 

Trade for Dominic Smith and Jed Lowrie

 

Trade for Kyle Seager

 

 

Lineup

 

1) Lorenzo Cain ®

2) Christian Yelich (L)

3) Nick Castellanos ®

4) Kyle Seager (L)

5) Keston Hiura ®

6) Dominic Smith (L)

7) Omar Narvaez (L)

8) Luis Urias ®

 

Bench

 

Manny Pina ®

Ryan Braun ®

Orlando Arcia ®

Ben Gamel (L)

Jed Lowrie (S)

 

Braun on the bench...HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

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Braun on the bench...HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

He would still start plenty, but he also likely won't even be on the team in a year from now.

 

He would play 1B versus lefties and start in place of Castellanos occasionally as well. Would also use him daily as a pinch hitter and late inning replacement.

 

Lineups vs. RHP

 

1) Lorenzo Cain ® / Ben Gamel (L)

2) Christian Yelich (L)

3) Nick Castellanos ® / Ryan Braun ®

4) Kyle Seager (L)

5) Keston Hiura ® / Jed Lowrie (S)

6) Dominic Smith (L)

7) Omar Narvaez (L)

8) Luis Urias ® / Orlando Arcia ®

 

 

Lineup vs. LHP

 

1) Lorenzo Cain ®

2) Christian Yelich (L)

3) Nick Castellanos ®

4) Keston Hiura ®

5) Ryan Braun ®

6) Jed Lowrie (S) / Kyle Seager (L)

7) Manny Pina ®

8) Luis Urias ® / Orlando Arcia ®

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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Between Cain and Braun, they'll both need time off but they will still both be regular starters even against RHP's. We do this too often. Even if he's not on the team next year, he's still one of your better betters in the lineup.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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Sign Nick Castellanos

 

Trade for Dominic Smith and Jed Lowrie

 

Trade for Kyle Seager

 

 

Lineup

 

1) Lorenzo Cain ®

2) Christian Yelich (L)

3) Nick Castellanos ®

4) Kyle Seager (L)

5) Keston Hiura ®

6) Dominic Smith (L)

7) Omar Narvaez (L)

8) Luis Urias ®

 

Bench

 

Manny Pina ®

Ryan Braun ®

Orlando Arcia ®

Ben Gamel (L)

Jed Lowrie (S)

 

I don't know if we have the money to make all three of those moves, but that is World Series caliber lineup/roster, wow. (Either Smith shows up and hits, or Braun just becomes the regular 1B)

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