Rluz's 2006 Stat-Based Player Predictions

[rluzinski]

Instead of clogging up the WOAH SOLVDD thread with my stat junk, I'll just start a new thread...

 

PITCHERS

 

Metric Toolbox:

 

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching tries cut out the effects of defense and luck from a pitcher?s ERA. Equation is:

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/FIP_equation.gif

 

xFIP: Similar to FIP except HR is normalized using the pitcher?s FB rate and adjusted for home park.

 

BABIP: Batting Average of Balls in Play; The number of batted balls that safely falls in for a hit (not including home runs). Much of the variance in a pitcher?s BABIP is a result of the defense behind him and luck.

 

LOB% : Percentage of batters a pitcher leaves on base.

 

ExLOB% : Expected LOB%, based on xFIP. The exact equation is:

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/exLOB_equation.gif

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Derrick Turnbow

Prediction: ERA of 3.25 in 2006

 [b]2005 Stats:[/b] ERA: 1.74 FIP: 3.18 xFIP: 3.40 BABIP: .259 LOB%: 88.1% ExLOB%: 74.8%

Notes: Turnbow's BABIP was a little low (compared to team BABIP of about .300) but his nice slider might be the reason why. His LOB% from 2005 is unsustainable, however. He Would have had about a 3.0 ERA with his expected LOB%.

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Dave Bush

Prediction: Will be a solid #4/#5 pitcher

 

Bush has a slightly below average K rate but, like Sheets, has a very low walk rate. Out of the 344 active pitchers with at least 200 innings pitched, Bush has the 16th lowest walk rate, at 2.08 BB/9. For comparison, Sheets is ranked 9th at 2.0 BB/9.

 [b]2005 Stats:[/b] ERA: 4.49 FIP: 4.79 xFIP: 4.71

Notes: Last year?s FIP has an NL equivalent of about 4.40. Has a 4.15 ERA in 2 seasons in the American league (NL equivalent of 3.75). Only 26, so has a lot of time to improve.

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Chris Capuano

Prediction: ERA of 4.25 in 2006

 [b]2005 Stats:[/b] ERA: 3.99 FIP: 4.65 xFIP: 4.69 LOB%: 77.3% exLOB%: 70.5%

Notes:Capuano improved his HR rate from 2004 (to league average) but his K/BB was actually worse. Furthermore his 18-12 record last year was primarily a result of great run support and good luck.

 

Capuano had the 8th highest LOB% among qualified pitchers but did have his pickoffs to help raise that number. Adjusting for his pickoffs, Capuano's LOB% becomes 72.9%. That's still 2.5% above league average, which translates into about 6 extra earned runs and an ERA of 4.23. That's about where I see him for 2006, along with a .500 win/loss record.

 

In Capuano's defense, he trailed off towards the end of the year, and a heavy workload may have been the culrit. While his K rate increased (scroll down a bit), so did his walk and HR rate (primarily because he was giving up more fly balls). 219 innings may have simply been 40 innings too many him last year. With a healthy Sheets, Capuano may see his innings reduced, which might allow his numbers stay strong through September.

 

EDIT: Updated information based on comments. Thanks.

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HITTERS

 

Metric Toolbox:

 

prOPS: Predicted OPS tries to cut through the luck of a batter?s OPS; Uses 6 main factors:

 

K/PA, BB/PA, HBP/PA, HR/AB, GB/FB, LD%

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Bill Hall

Prediction: .800 OPS

 

2005 Stats

OPS: .837

prOPS : .753

 

Notes: As I?ve pointed out before, Hall had the 4th highest prOPS over performance in 05? and the 13th highest since 02?. Most if the difference was from the 60 point difference between his SLG and prSLG

 

Why be optimistic about Hall at all?

 

Hall?s approach looked much improved in 2005. He seemed more patient and selective at the plate. This seems to be supported by his pitches/PA numbers:

 [b]Year Pitches/PA[/b] 2004: 3.80 2005: 4.16

3.8 pitches/PA is above average; 4.16 is crazy patient. He also reduced his strikeouts while increasing his walk rate slightly. Furthermore, at only 26 years and with last year being the first time Hall has had any consistent playing time in majors, it would be unfair to not have some optimism for Hall

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Geoff Jenkins

Prediction: Will continue to be valuable defensively

 

? ?Fielding Bible? by John Dewan has Geoff Jenkins ranked as the best RFer in the NL last year, in terms of recoding more outs than expected.

 

? Dave Pinto of Baseballmusings.com created a defensive metric called PMR. Jenkins saved 6 runs over average last year, according to it.

 

? One of the highest hold% in last 3 years.

 

? Has thrown out 5 runners at home in the last 3 years. Again, he was one of the best in the league at doing so.

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J.J Hardy

Prediction: Will have a break out year

 

OPS: .711

prOPS: .748

 

Second Half: Normally its statistical folly to ignore bad parts of a player?s season, but Hardy is a different matter. After being benched for 4 games in late May, Hardy completely changed his approach at the plate. He decided to be more aggressive, like he was in the minors. The change was dramatic:

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/hardy_splits.gif

 

Before May 24th, he had an excellent contact rate and walk rate, but his power was non-existent. After changing his approach, his contact and walk rate lowered but his power numbers increased dramatically. These changes can be further illustrated by tracking his BIP types as the year progressed (complements of fangraphs.com)

 

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7391/569/400/balltypelegend.0.jpg

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7391/569/400/hardyballtypes.jpg

 

The increase in power was no fluke. More flyballs and more line drives equal more power. While Hardy had to concede less contact with his more aggressive approach, he more than made up for it in just about every other area. If Hardy can continue in 2006 where he left off in 2005, he's going to have a phenomenal year.

[Ennder]

I think you need to be really careful when you look at Capuano. Look at his last 6 starts compared to the rest of his year and I think he gives a bit of a false indicator because they overworked him late.

[RobertR]

Given Capuano's pick off move, I suspect he's always going to have a LOB% above what is to be expected. It will probably come down some, but that's definitely an X-factor in his favor.

 

Robert

[rluzinski]

I think you need to be really careful when you look at Capuano. Look at his last 6 starts compared to the rest of his year and I think he gives a bit of a false indicator because they overworked him late.

 

That's probably a fair point, but how much did it effect his overall numbers? Towards the end of the season, his K rate actually improved, while his walk rate turned horrible. He also gave up a lot of HRs his last few stats, mainly because he was giving up a higher percentage of fly balls.

 

Given Capuano's pick off move, I suspect he's always going to have a LOB% above what is to be expected. It will probably come down some, but that's definitely an X-factor in his favor.

 

Hard to argue with that either. It's easy enough to calculate his LOB%, negating pickoffs, to see if it's reasonable then.

 

EDIT: I updated my asessment of him, based on your comments. Appreciate it.

[Chio151]

Great info, thanks.

 

I've been trying to convince friends that Hardy will be solid this year, but most people still cling to those first half numbers.

 

Also, really excited to watch Bush pitch. I enjoy pitchers with low walk rate numbers.

 

I do think many fans are going to be disappointed if Turnbow and Cappy fall back to earth this season.

[Brian the Automator]

[ I've been trying to convince friends that Hardy will be solid this year, but most people still cling to those first half numbers. ]

 

Hey, tell your friends to throw down some money on their assumptions. Either you'll walk away richer, or you'll have just won your argument.

[reillymcshane]

Thanks, Russ.

[RightFieldCoder]

Quote:

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John Dewan has the Brewers having given up the most singles in front of the RF in 05', yet has Geoff Jenkins ranked as the best RFer in the NL last year. Perhaps Jenkins playing deep saves a lot of extra base hits?

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I know he plays deep, but can you find out how he was ranked before he injured himself? He couldn't run at the end of the year, and this probably padded the amount of singles given up. It might have just made him bad to worse, but it also might have made him average to bad.

[rluzinski]

I know he plays deep, but can you find out how he was ranked before he injured himself?

 

I haven't bought the book, unfortunetely. Someone here must have, however. Jenkins has ALWAYS played deep, however, so I wasn't suprised by that stat. Would be interesting to see it broken down by time of year, though.

[colbyjack]

This really screams front page material. Nice research Russ. I don't necessarily agree with some of your conclusions, but if everyone agreed with every single projection this discussion would be pretty lame http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

 

And of course it would make for a very interesting follow-up story at the end of the year, as I'm sure you will learn a thing or two from the players you didn't peg.

 

I'm curious, on Woah Solvdd you said you didn't think Hall would match his '05 numbers, but yet you seem to be somewhat hopeful of what he can do based on your comments above. Since you have brought up his age, a big part of me believes that last year wasn't him reaching his potential, but just starting to.

[rluzinski]

This really screams front page material.

 

Brian is more than welcome to convert it into an article http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I don't necessarily agree with some of your conclusions, but if everyone agreed with every single projection this discussion would be pretty lame

 

Well, I'm not sure if I am married to them either. I just looked at the stats and let them steer me wherever they did. I'm just learning.

 

I'm curious, on Woah Solvdd you said you didn't think Hall would match his '05 numbers, but yet you seem to be somewhat hopeful of what he can do based on your comments above.

 

Again, I was trying to stay objective. While I think prOPS is on to something, there were obvious signs that Hall deserved to improve in 2005 and deserves to improve in 2006. An .800 OPS (my prediction) is pretty darn good dor a guy who can play the middle infield.

[gregmag]

Russ, that's just an outstanding post. Very informative. Because I was sniping with you about Hall a few days ago, I want to say that your assessment of him here is about as even-keel as I could possibly imagine for such a hard player to predict.

 

One thing I wasn't clear about . . . if Bush performed over the past two years at a 3.75 NL ERA level, and he's young enough that we should expect improvement -- both premises that sound right to me -- then doesn't that make him more than a solid 4/5? Maybe you just meant that would in fact be his role this year, but the factors you identified make him sound like his ceiling is solid #3, maybe even a little better than that.

 

Greg.

[rluzinski]

I want to say that your assessment of him here is about as even-keel as I could possibly imagine for such a hard player to predict

 

When Hall jumped out to a quick start last year, a started researching his numbers and noticed that he had ramped up his patience at the plate. While that doesn't automatically spell success, the fact he had changed anything about his appraoch made me less confident in simply extrapolating his limited MLB numbers to make a prediction.

 

In addition, any player that get's regular playing time will do better than one that get's sporadic playing time. That's not just supposition, it's something that was studied in "The Book". They showed that pulling lefties for a pinch hitter isn't always a great idea since the righty vs. lefty advantage can be erased by the "pinch hitter effect." Pinch hitters simply don't hit as well when they only get 1 AB in a game. Anyway, Hall benefited from actually having a decent amount of ABs. To ignore that would be unfair.

 

then doesn't that make him more than a solid 4/5

 

All my predictions were for the upcoming season only. I would hope that Bush's career ceiling is higher than a typical #4.

 

My prediction for Bush would have been higher, except he only has 234 MLB innings pitched and I don't dare yet try and make MLB predictions on minor league data. I didn't want to go to overboard on a prediction based on limited IP and a metric that certainly misses some variables (FIP). FIP is an excellent metric, but it has it's limitions.

 

Considering that a month ago, some were still arguing that Helling should get the 5th spot in the rotation, I felt that suggesting Bush may actually be better than Ohka this year was sufficiently "bold".

[gregmag]

Oh, yeah -- for this season, I think your Bush projection is quite sound. Thanks for the responses.

 

Greg.

[rluzinski]

Throw this in the stats forum if it's run it's course?

[Southwest Brewer]

Quote:

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On Turnbow - His LOB% from 2005 is unsustainable, however. He Would have had about a 3.0 ERA with his expected LOB%.

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Seems like he's doing better than last year. No?

[rluzinski]

Seems like he's doing better than last year. No?

 

More of the same, really:

 

LINK

 

4.42 FIP and a 70+% LOB. He needs to stop walking so many people but he's certainly showed a knack to "bear down" and get people out when he needs to. I just think he'll get bitten if he keeps it up, however.

[DevilDog1775]

Seems like it has caught up to Turnbow in the past 2 games.... may prove to be a very good prediction

[JoeHova]

Quote:

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I haven't bought the book, unfortunetely. Someone here must have, however. Jenkins has ALWAYS played deep, however, so I wasn't suprised by that stat. Would be interesting to see it broken down by time of year, though.

---

 

 

I have it, and the book doesn't say that the Brewers gave up the most singles in front of RF last season. It actually has them doing better than league average. The average team gave up 109 hits in front of the RF last year (home and road). The Brewers gave up 100.

 

Dewan does have Geoff as the best RF in the NL, although the 4th best overall. He ranks toward the bottom in arm rating, despite leading RFs in baserunner kills. People took a lot of extra bases on him.

 

I'll post more in depth on what the book says about the Brewers later, right now I have to fill out some forms.

[rluzinski]

I have it, and the book doesn't say that the Brewers gave up the most singles in front of RF last season.

 

Yeh, I messed up. What the book says is that the Brewers HIT the most singles in front of teh RF last year, I believe.

 

When you get around to posting those fielding numbers, it would be great to make it it's own thread and as in deapth as possible, please. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[endaround]

Hardball times had Jenkins as the best arm in baseball.

[rluzinski]

Hardball times had Jenkins as the best arm in baseball.

 

A link to that article is actually in the first post of this thread.