Free Agent Starting Pitchers (not named Gerrit Cole)

[Eye Black]

We have a thread dedicated to Gerrit Cole who is obviously an unlikely option for the Brewers. Below are some other starting pitchers that are likely free agents (a couple have team or player options):

 

Hyun-Jin Ryu

 

Zack Wheeler

 

Jake Odorizzi

 

Madison Bumgarner

 

Michael Pineda

 

Kyle Gibson

 

Adam Wainwright

 

Cole Hamels

 

Martín Pérez

 

Tanner Roark

 

Iván Nova

 

Wade Miley

 

Brett Anderson

 

Jordan Lyles

 

Dallas Keuchel

 

Alex Wood

[Dadbauer]

From that list I really like Wheeler and wouldn't mind a return from either Lyles, Miley, or Fiers. Add Gio to the list too.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I've always liked Gibson. I think it would be in their best interest to stay in on Ryu too. He seems like the type that might fly under the radar and end of signing a below market deal, despite being really, really good.

 

Otherwise I'm all in on Lyles, or perhaps Nova on a cheap deal.

[long ball]

Collin McHugh from the Astros is an interesting name to keep an eye on. He had elbow issues down the stretch this year, but if he's healthy he sorta fits the Brewers mold. More of a swing man type. Experience in the pen and rotation. Been overall good for a few years now.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7531&position=P

[MadThinker88]

Collin McHugh from the Astros is an interesting name to keep an eye on. He had elbow issues down the stretch this year, but if he's healthy he sorta fits the Brewers mold. More of a swing man type. Experience in the pen and rotation. Been overall good for a few years now.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7531&position=P

 

I understand the interest (assuming he is healthy).

That said, considering the Astros are likely losing GCole via free agency, why would they let a healthy McHugh get away when they need starting pitching?

Are you suggesting the Brewers should outbid the Astros to draw him away??

[MadThinker88]

Cleveland is exercising its 2020 option on Corey Kluber.

Announced via MLBTR today.

[Madhawk23]

Isn't Fiers signed through 2020 with the A's? Unless if I'm missing something, I don't think he's a free agent this winter.

[Eye Black]

Isn't Fiers signed through 2020 with the A's? Unless if I'm missing something, I don't think he's a free agent this winter.

Looks like you are correct. That's strange, the site I was using as a reference had him as a FA. I have removed him from the list.

[long ball]

Collin McHugh from the Astros is an interesting name to keep an eye on. He had elbow issues down the stretch this year, but if he's healthy he sorta fits the Brewers mold. More of a swing man type. Experience in the pen and rotation. Been overall good for a few years now.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7531&position=P

 

I understand the interest (assuming he is healthy).

That said, considering the Astros are likely losing GCole via free agency, why would they let a healthy McHugh get away when they need starting pitching?

Are you suggesting the Brewers should outbid the Astros to draw him away??

 

He's just a name I'd be interested in. I think the Astros have 3 pretty sure bets in their rotation for 2020: JV, Greinke, and McCullers. Then they also have a ton of guys who could end up getting starts for them like Josh James, Forrest Whitley, Cionel Perez, Corbin Martin, etc. They probably want one more veteran type arm to complement the young guys and the studs though.

[Eye Black]

Here is the more complete starting pitching list from MLB.com including which players carry team or player options.

 

I forgot that Stephen Strasburg can opt out of the remaining 4 years (and $100 million) on his contract.

[clancyphile]

Hmmm... Bumgarner or Keuchel on a one-year "prove it" deal could be interesting.

[Outlander]

Stearns has obviously shown interest in Wheeler in the past so will be interesting to see if the Brewers make an offer.

[wntrtxn21]

I've always liked Gibson. I think it would be in their best interest to stay in on Ryu too. He seems like the type that might fly under the radar and end of signing a below market deal, despite being really, really good.

 

Otherwise I'm all in on Lyles, or perhaps Nova on a cheap deal.

 

I'd love to get Lyles back on a decent contract. I don't know if Ryu is going to be too expensive. Nova, even on a cheap deal, is a big no. 4.98 FIP, gave up 225 hits to 187 IPs, 1.455 WHIP. The White Sox kept him because they had nobody else and they knew they were going nowhere anyways.

[clancyphile]

What about looking for pitchers from NPB or KBO? Might there be some nuggets who could be "bargains" along the lines of Eric Thames?

[HiAndTight]

Here is the more complete starting pitching list from MLB.com including which players carry team or player options.

 

I forgot that Stephen Strasburg can opt out of the remaining 4 years (and $100 million) on his contract.

 

 

I'd like to see them at least make an offer on Cole. I would love Strasburg, but I just don't trust him. I'd guess he'd opt out...but I'd also guess the Nats just work something out with him where they just add another year at 25 million and bring him right back.

 

 

The fact that he does have 3 pitches that can be dominant in addition to his fastball would be reason to hope that he'd age well, ala Greinke, but I want to see the Brewers either try to go and try to get the best pitcher, the workhorse ace or I'd like to see them make some low risk signings.

 

Maybe Odorrizi if he could be had for 4/50 or Hamels if you can get him for 2 years at 28 million or so. I don't know what the pitching market is going to look like though. It seems like teams have pulled way back since the Price/Greinke/Scherzer deals.

[HiAndTight]

What about looking for pitchers from NPB or KBO? Might there be some nuggets who could be "bargains" along the lines of Eric Thames?

 

 

There might. But at this point every other team in baseball is following those leagues...so anyone you'd be bringing over would likely be a real under the radar type guy who you probably wouldn't feel comfortable counting on.

 

Funny how a year chances. Last year we were looking at having 3 young fireballers in the rotation. Now most people believe Perlata is a long reliever(who can handle higher leverage outings) and have no feel for what Burnes could provide.

 

This is why I'm trying to get one somewhat reliable starter and then one or two bounce back type candidates(who've actually produced at the big league level).

[phnxcrew]

I think Lyles will be coming back and could definitely see a Ryu, Wheeler, Ordorizzi, Miley type of move. At some point you have to pair some one with Woodruff to cover six innings once and awhile. I would prefer to not have 85% of the season covered by average starters AND average/ below average relievers. I think Stearns might be on the same page with that desire.

[Eye Black]

Last week MLB Trade Rumors published an article predicting the potential Qualifying Offers for pitchers, Forecasting The Qualifying Offer Market: Pitchers.

 

Here is what they concluded among the starting pitchers likeliness to receive a Qualifying Offer...

 

Easy Calls:

 

Gerrit Cole, RHP, Astros

 

Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants

 

Zack Wheeler, RHP, Mets

 

 

Borderline:

 

Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Twins

 

Cole Hamels, LHP, Cubs

 

 

Opt-Out Possibilities:

 

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals

 

Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs

[JohnBriggs12]

Cole Hamels is supposedly interested in staying in the NL Central even if the Cubs don't re-sign him. He's got very good career numbers vs. St. Louis, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. He was arguably the Cubs best starter in the first half prior to his missing time with an oblique.

[nate82]

I wouldn't mind a Hamels signing. Not the best option but far from the worst. If it is only a one or two year deal it would be perfect.

 

If we can sign Hamels and Wheeler/Odorizzi along with Lyles that gives the Brewers a starting rotation of Woodruff, Davies, Wheeler, Hamels and Lyles. That is a good starting rotation with some depth in Burnes and Hauser as your 6th and 7th options.

 

You could even trade Davies to the Twins for Nick Gordon to help at SS.

[Eye Black]

Add Julio Teherán to the free agent starting pitcher list now that Atlanta declined his $12 million option.

[JosephC]

I've always been hot and cold on Teheran. Definitely never lived up to the prospect hype but when it comes down to the one thing that matters most...run prevention...he's been pretty solid. And the thing that is #2 on the matters most list...durability...he's been pretty solid there too.

 

His K/BB ratio is always pretty mediocre which is the main reason the FIP and xFIP tend to look mediocre. However, he just has an overwhelming history of his ERA (again, the actual run prevention number) outperforming his FIP. His ERA has been better 7 consecutive seasons, hard to say there is anything fluky when it happens seven years in a row. Over those seven seasons...3.64 ERA...4.22 FIP...191 innings pitched. Over the last three year the FIP is a pretty ugly 4.82 which will drive the market way down, but the ERA is a far better 4.09.

 

The only number that prevents me from really liking Teheran in a Brewer's uniform is the ground ball percentage. He's sat at around 39% over the last three seasons. I just plugged a minimum of 120 innings pitched into Fangraphs database, and it returned 104 results. Teheran's GB% ranked 80 out of 104, so he's in the bottom 25%. If it wasn't for that, I'd really be attracted to him as a potential bargain signing. I just think many teams will project him to be around a 5'ish FIP player over the next couple of years which will really drive the price-tag down. And as already discussed, there is a solid 7 year history that strongly suggest that his run prevention will outperform the peripherals.

[Eye Black]

Fangraphs included an interesting addition to the Starting Pitching names in their 2020 Top 50 Free Agents article...

 

 

41. Kwang Hyun Kim, SP, Age 32

 

Contract Estimate

[pre]Type Years AAV Total

Kiley McDaniel 2.00 $7.0 M $14.0 M

Median Crowdsource 2.00 $5.0 M $10.0 M

Avg Crowdsource 2.55 $6.2 M $15.8 M[/pre]

 

Player Notes

Kim has been at the center of an awful lot of winning dating back to his amateur career. MVP of a high school national championship team and a gold medal and MVP winner at the 2006 World Juniors, he won gold medals in the 2008 Olympics, 2014 Asian Games, and 2015 Premier12 tournament, plus four KBO titles (‘07, ‘08, ‘10, ‘18) and a KBO MVP (‘08) with SK Wyverns, the KBO club with which Kim is under contract for one more season. The Wyverns finished 88-55 this year, and Kim is a cornerstone of their rotation.

 

If he comes stateside, it won’t be the first time Kim has been posted. The Padres won his negotiating rights for $2 million back in 2014 but could not reach an agreement after a physical. Kim had Tommy John a few years later and missed all of 2017. His walk rates, which were terrifying throughout his early and mid-20s, got much better in the latter half of that decade of life, especially after he returned from surgery.

 

Many pitchers return from TJ with a new physique thanks to their time away from throwing, during which they’re focused on the rest of their body. That’s not the case here, as Kim’s athleticism is seeping away, his arm slot has lowered a bit, and he’s less balanced over his blocking leg than he used to be. Stuff wise, Kim has a nasty, tilt-a-whirl slider he deploys as his primary swing and miss weapon; the rest of his repertoire (a low-90s fastball, low-70s curveball, and upper-70s changeup) is average or below. It’s a fifth starter/swingman look, barring some kind of velo explosion out of a bullpen. The question then becomes: is what teams are willing to pay for that sort of profile enticing enough for SK, a competitive team, to ship away such a vital part of their rotation?

[brewmann04]

I am pretty sure DS is going to add a quality starter this offseason someone who going to go more than 4 or 5 Innings.

[3and2Fastball]

I think the Brewers will go after Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, & Jake Odorizzi. No idea if they'll manage to sign one of them