Live and die with Josh Hader:

[Fear The Chorizo]

My memory of the 8th is fuzzy, but if we're going to talk about how unlucky Hader was, he was pretty damn lucky to have that opening sequence, because he was absolutely all over the place last night, even on the Ks, and the first guy (I think, again, fuzzy) swung at a ball 4 that wasn't even close.

 

I keep seeing people bring up the HBP, not here, but other places...but assuming that hitter is retired if that's called back is a pretty big leap by how that inning/his control were going.

 

I dunno. My stance on Hader before the game even started was to yank him if he let anyone on. Let someone else blow the game if you have to. The course of events with him out there was just way too predictable, especially with how god awful his location was - it should have made that decision easy.

 

Hader threw fastballs out of the zone all year and got batters to swing. It's not now 'lucky' that the same batters were getting beat with those pitches. Hader was absolutely unlucky in the HBP call and the broken bat single by Zimmerman. He stayed away from Rendon on the 3-2 pitch, which was fine. Counsell wasn't going to lift Hader for Claudio or anyone else at that point against a lefty, so calling that bad management is just Monday morning quarterbacking. Just a bad play by Grisham and unlucky spots from Hader.

 

More or less agree, aside from saying he was staying away from Rendon - that wasn't by design, that was because he wasn't able to command his pitches. He had some unlucky breaks, but he also put himself in a bad spot by not having command. Lots of people talk about him being most effective up in the zone, and he gives up dongs when he's throwing low strikes. He definitely wasn't low in the zone last night. Not making excuses for him, but there were a few 50/50 high pitches that were called balls that the ump was calling strikes on occasion earlier in the game that Hader put behind in counts and aided hitters to taking more pitches instead of swinging. The ump overall was inconsistent high in the zone - although some of the pitches he called strikes for Suter were ridiculously high. If Hader was missing by a couple inches consistently and was hitting his spots he probably gets a few of those strike calls and the Brewers win the game - the fact he was all over the place negates that possibility and the ump doesn't give him the benefit of the doubt on any marginal pitches.

[MrTPlush]

You're kinda doing the same thing. Getting a guy to swing at Ball 4 that's way out isn't lucky, but him misfiring yet again and hitting a guy in the wrist is unlucky. IMO people are making way too much of that call, I genuinely think it was probably simultaneously, at least nothing on the video was conclusive enough to expect a reversal. And even IF you get it called back, there is no telling what happens with his next pitch.

 

He was terrible last night. Maybe lucky with a pitch and unlucky with another, but he was awful.

 

It was not way out. Maybe....an inch.

 

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/brewers-vs-nationals/2019/10/01/599336?#,game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=play-by-play,game=599336

 

Turner swung on a way out pitch to strikeout, but it was not a full count.

[geargroy]

Live or die, Hader was the guy and I felt that Counsell should've hooked him after the Zimmerman bloop but he didn't have Lyles warming up at that time. Do or done, Counsell needs to have the bullpen active I would.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

That is one thing that mystifies me about last night. It's one game, with a day off if you win, you carried 10 pitchers for it and you have pretty limited activity most of the night. I don't know. I'm just pissed off.

 

I'm sure there were many games this season where I thought whatever pitcher was going to blow it and he didn't, but I woke up feeling that Hader would blow the game if left in the 8/9th. I just did not want him there all day and to see it all play out in literally the exact nightmare scenario I envisioned, and to see Counsell sit on his hands as it did...just blah. And I'm a huge Counsell fan.

[adambr2]

Hader really has to learn to throw a more consistent slider. I don't think comparing him to Turnbow or Axford is fair, but Andrew Miller went from elite to mediocre reliever fairly quickly the last couple years.

 

For starters, Hader needs to not be locked into a closing role in 2020, it is just not a good role fit for him.

[RobDeer 45]

This is just my opinion, but I think Hader was scared to give up the HR ball last night. This lead him to throwing more off speed pitches, which he didn't do for strikes. This led to mainly full counts, and too many pitches. If he comes out, throws gas, and strikes guys out, he's got a good chance to pitch both innings. By not mowing down the bottom of the lineup, we were in a terrible spot. His confidence was off, and we were basically stuck with him, and whatever outcome came. I have to think that if he gets out of that jam, we have to go to a different pitcher in the 9th. It was worst case scenario.

 

I think CC does a tremendous job managing his staff. The playoffs last year, and all year this year, he's done a great job of piecing things together. It's not like he's had a traditional staff. He's gotten way more than we had hoped for out of these guys. We needed one more pitcher last night. One more experienced late inning reliever. We came up an inning short on guys. Like I said, if Hader comes out, and throws strikes, and gets out of that first inning, I like his chances in the 9th. That didn't happen, but hard to say he should have been pulled. Had to let him try and get out of it I think.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

When Hader came out shaky I started to really look at his body language and if he was nervous he's one cool customer because he looked totally fine, if not relaxed. It looked like he was smiling before it all got really bad.

[Zad Fnark]

After last night's loss, I was reluctant to come back here, fearing the wailing wouldn't end. I'm glad all the level heads are out today.

 

As mentioned, what hurts is no Knebel or good Jeffress as a backup. Josh is better in the "in emergency break glass" role in innings 6-8 to secure the tough outs. I'm hoping he can develop a good curve ball or changeup over the offseason.

 

I was rooting for Lyles to be out next, but it's hard to second guess that, as who knows what the results would have been. 5 innings from Pom would have worked.

[PeaveyFury]

He looked like he was on drugs last night.

 

What does that even mean?

[MrTPlush]

I'm glad all the level heads are out today.

 

They are either off the bandwagon until the 2020 season draws closer or they are currently banned.

[MrTPlush]

He looked like he was on drugs last night.

 

What does that even mean?

 

Obviously you didn't see him in his postgame interview

 

 

 

[KeithStone53151]

It's real easy to be a monday morning QB, but I'll add my thought to the mix on bullpen usage. I was hesitant to send Woodruff out for a 4th, I could have understand for 1 batter as it was a RH hitter and see what happens...but have a lefty ready. Woodruff looked sharp in the 4th so obviously let him finish. I would have pulled Suter for a RH reliever during his inning at some point. After Suter's inning, I would have gone to Lyles for 1-3 innings depending how he looked with the plan to let Pomeranz pitch 1 and Hader pitch 1. As played, considering Pomeranz looked so devastating, I think you have to let him keep pitching. He was a starter and pitched at least 1 stint of 3 innings for us. Could have left him in with Hader needing to only pitch 1. With how Hader has looked lately, I didn't think counting on him for multiple innings was wise. As played, I think Hader needed to be pulled with Rendon coming up. Go to a RH reliever like Jackson/Peralta/Guerra...I would lean towards Peralta. Then have Lyles come out in the 9th. I think his only truly BAD move was leaving Hader out too long. The others I referenced were moreso doing stuff a bit differently than I would have...but not bad by any stretch.

[billymac]

Counsell manages pitching great, just didn't last night, which really makes it suck that much more.

 

Maybe for the regular season

 

Two post seasons in a row he showed his inability to manage a bullpen that killed us. Jeffress clearly didn't have it for us last year and he was too stubborn to look elsewhere. This year Hader was not the shutdown two inning guy he was last year. I'd love to see his 8th inning stats because I swear nearly everytime he came in the 8th, there was trouble. Knew it was coming last night.

 

Postseason managing is not the same as regular season managing. Counsell is a better regular season manager than a postseason manager.

[Ennder]

There is absolutely nothing wrong with how Counsell managed the bullpen last night. There was no way you can expect more than 4 from Woodruff. Hader has come out shaky a few times in the past and almost always got it together and was fine after a few batters. If we were talking like Knebel I get it, when he starts bad he doesn't tend to get over it, Hader doesn't have that issue.

 

Trying to use Lyles with runners on is really putting him out of his comfort zone, the righties in the bullpen were a bad matchup for Soto and we had already used Pomeranz. There was not a better option than hoping your guy makes a few good pitches.

 

Jeffress' usage wasn't nearly as bad as people want to make it out last year in the playoffs either.

[brooks_quichenick]

Counsell manages pitching great, just didn't last night, which really makes it suck that much more.

This year Hader was not the shutdown two inning guy he was last year. I'd love to see his 8th inning stats because I swear nearly everytime he came in the 8th, there was trouble. Knew it was coming last night.

 

Hader's 8th inning stats compared to his 9th inning stats are very similar except an increase in BB/HR and therefore an increase in ERA. BA/OBP/SLG still very good.

 

In 48.1 IP in the 9th inning, Hader has a 1.86 ERA with 7 HR allowed and 90 K's to 10 BB. Batters are hitting .152/.203/.327 against him in the 9th.

 

In 21.2 IP in the 8th inning, Hader has a 4.15 ERA with 6 HR allowed and 41 K's to 7 BB. Batters are hitting .167/.253/.423 against him in the 8th.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Jeffress' usage wasn't nearly as bad as people want to make it out last year in the playoffs either.

 

 

With ya until this. Everyone except Craig Counsell knew JJ was toast.

[tmwiese55]

This is hindsight 20/20 talk. He essentially played last night just like he played all of September, which got us to this point. Hader was off and combined with a couple bad breaks and that was it. Sure, in hindsight maybe can find something. Such as perhaps using a Guerra in between Suter/Pom that way you can pinch hit rather than letting Pom hit. That could've pushed everyone back an inning. But, if Guerra gets beat up folks here are screaming how dumb it was not to just stick to Pom/Hader. Or, leave Pomeranz out for the 8th. But if he puts 2 on and then Hader comes in and doesn't get out people are screaming how you should've just had Hader out to start the inning. That's the risk of a heavy bullpen formula we use, some days a reliever is off, and the more guys you go to the odds of that guy pitching go up.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

This is hindsight 20/20 talk. He essentially played last night just like he played all of September, which got us to this point. Hader was off and combined with a couple bad breaks and that was it. Sure, in hindsight maybe can find something. Such as perhaps using a Guerra in between Suter/Pom that way you can pinch hit rather than letting Pom hit. That could've pushed everyone back an inning. But, if Guerra gets beat up folks here are screaming how dumb it was not to just stick to Pom/Hader. Or, leave Pomeranz out for the 8th. But if he puts 2 on and then Hader comes in and doesn't get out people are screaming how you should've just had Hader out to start the inning. That's the risk of a heavy bullpen formula we use, some days a reliever is off, and the more guys you go to the odds of that guy pitching go up.

 

Ain't hindsight from me. And sure if it had worked I wouldn't have a reason to be talking about this, but I was pretty adamant about not wanting Hader anywhere near the 9th inning. The division blowage in Colorado was the last warning sign. I mean I think it was actually you that said you didn't hate my idea of bringing Hader out first. Maybe he'd suck then too, but, there is less pressure in the 5th, there is more time to get the runs back, and you have more options if he clearly doesn't have it going. Give the 8th/9th to Pom who had shown more control and better secondary stuff.

 

You're absolutely right about Guerra or anybody else going in there and blowing it, but literally the exact reason I didn't want Hader closing that game out came true.

 

But if someone else had blown the game late like that I would be feeling more like "Well what can you do, they all stink," rather than "Hader blew it and I saw it coming."

[tmwiese55]

How much of that is just our ingrained pessimism as Brewers fans though? I mean, you're acting like Hader has been bad lately or something. For this Sept run he had a 1.88 ERA and 10 Saves and one blown save in that Col game. He only gave runs two times out of about 15 appearances. That Col game, and a fluke oppo HR to that scrawny guy from STL over two weeks ago. That's it. In the majoriy of games he never even got a guy on base against him. You're basically advocating for demoting and not trusting him because he gave one HR in Colorado.

 

For you last sentence, I think everyone else is more comfortable going down swinging with our best guy rather than a Guerra/Peralta/Cloudio

[MrTPlush]

The division blowage in Colorado was the last warning sign.."

 

What were the warning signs before? The single homer he gave up between August 13th and September 28th? The 2 earned runs he gave up the month prior to that one pitch? The 12/13 scoreless outings prior to the Colorado game?

 

We were suppose to treat Josh Hader like AAA fodder that never saw a high leverage situation solely based on one pitch?

[Fear The Chorizo]

This is hindsight 20/20 talk. He essentially played last night just like he played all of September, which got us to this point. Hader was off and combined with a couple bad breaks and that was it. Sure, in hindsight maybe can find something. Such as perhaps using a Guerra in between Suter/Pom that way you can pinch hit rather than letting Pom hit. That could've pushed everyone back an inning. But, if Guerra gets beat up folks here are screaming how dumb it was not to just stick to Pom/Hader. Or, leave Pomeranz out for the 8th. But if he puts 2 on and then Hader comes in and doesn't get out people are screaming how you should've just had Hader out to start the inning. That's the risk of a heavy bullpen formula we use, some days a reliever is off, and the more guys you go to the odds of that guy pitching go up.

 

Ain't hindsight from me. And sure if it had worked I wouldn't have a reason to be talking about this, but I was pretty adamant about not wanting Hader anywhere near the 9th inning. The division blowage in Colorado was the last warning sign. I mean I think it was actually you that said you didn't hate my idea of bringing Hader out first. Maybe he'd suck then too, but, there is less pressure in the 5th, there is more time to get the runs back, and you have more options if he clearly doesn't have it going. Give the 8th/9th to Pom who had shown more control and better secondary stuff.

 

You're absolutely right about Guerra or anybody else going in there and blowing it, but literally the exact reason I didn't want Hader closing that game out came true.

 

But if someone else had blown the game late like that I would be feeling more like "Well what can you do, they all stink," rather than "Hader blew it and I saw it coming."

 

So your take is CC should have brought Hader out in the 5th so he could likely blow the game earlier because he was toast in your eyes, then proceed to lay out other closer options as also being awful with the exception of Pom (who did give them 6 outs with the lead). I guess you wanted to hold onto Pom to use him for innings 7 and 8 assuming he'd be pitching from behind since the rest of the pen is a disaster, Hader included? Not sure anyone is able to follow at this point...

 

Hard to fault CC for going with what got the Brewers to the postseason from a bullpen standpoint - sucks that it didn't work out but taking any other approach to what he tried to do would've been even more reason to question it. Hader has been this team's closer, good and bad, for all of 2019 - to switch it up in a winner take all wild card game because he gave up a 2 out solo shot at Coors Field to tie a game in game 161 after being dominant in September (27K, 3 BB, 2HR, 0.7WHIP) is just beyond kneejerk. The only thought I had to change how the pen was managed last night was that they may have tried using other relief options to get through the 6th before going to Pomeranz - then you could pinch hit his spot in the 7th, use him for innings 7-8 with Hader coming in at the first sign of trouble or given the 9th.

[bjkrautk]

I'm not a pitching mechanics guru, but something about Hader was off in the 8th. He threw his first few sliders 1-2 feet outside the zone and high, as well as a few of his fastballs in that territory. I assumed he was too amped up / over-throwing. He was regularly getting behind hitters. As Ken Rosenthal tweeted earlier today, it's only the 3rd time in his career he threw more balls than strikes. (

)

 

In Colorado, his high fastball just got tagged on Saturday night. Last night wasn't that.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

This is hindsight 20/20 talk. He essentially played last night just like he played all of September, which got us to this point. Hader was off and combined with a couple bad breaks and that was it. Sure, in hindsight maybe can find something. Such as perhaps using a Guerra in between Suter/Pom that way you can pinch hit rather than letting Pom hit. That could've pushed everyone back an inning. But, if Guerra gets beat up folks here are screaming how dumb it was not to just stick to Pom/Hader. Or, leave Pomeranz out for the 8th. But if he puts 2 on and then Hader comes in and doesn't get out people are screaming how you should've just had Hader out to start the inning. That's the risk of a heavy bullpen formula we use, some days a reliever is off, and the more guys you go to the odds of that guy pitching go up.

 

Ain't hindsight from me. And sure if it had worked I wouldn't have a reason to be talking about this, but I was pretty adamant about not wanting Hader anywhere near the 9th inning. The division blowage in Colorado was the last warning sign. I mean I think it was actually you that said you didn't hate my idea of bringing Hader out first. Maybe he'd suck then too, but, there is less pressure in the 5th, there is more time to get the runs back, and you have more options if he clearly doesn't have it going. Give the 8th/9th to Pom who had shown more control and better secondary stuff.

 

You're absolutely right about Guerra or anybody else going in there and blowing it, but literally the exact reason I didn't want Hader closing that game out came true.

 

But if someone else had blown the game late like that I would be feeling more like "Well what can you do, they all stink," rather than "Hader blew it and I saw it coming."

 

So your take is CC should have brought Hader out in the 5th so he could likely blow the game earlier because he was toast in your eyes, then proceed to lay out other closer options as also being awful with the exception of Pom (who did give them 6 outs with the lead). I guess you wanted to hold onto Pom to use him for innings 7 and 8 assuming he'd be pitching from behind since the rest of the pen is a disaster, Hader included? Not sure anyone is able to follow at this point...

 

Hard to fault CC for going with what got the Brewers to the postseason from a bullpen standpoint - sucks that it didn't work out but taking any other approach to what he tried to do would've been even more reason to question it. Hader has been this team's closer, good and bad, for all of 2019 - to switch it up in a winner take all wild card game because he gave up a 2 out solo shot at Coors Field to tie a game in game 161 after being dominant in September (27K, 3 BB, 2HR, 0.7WHIP) is just beyond kneejerk. The only thought I had to change how the pen was managed last night was that they may have tried using other relief options to get through the 6th before going to Pomeranz - then you could pinch hit his spot in the 7th, use him for innings 7-8 with Hader coming in at the first sign of trouble or given the 9th.

 

No, but continue to dismiss me and talk down to me because I guess that's how people cope with Hader blowing the season around here. My take was to bring Hader in, as I said before the game, as the first guy out, and find him pine as soon as a runner was on because the game was too important for his bad version to show up.

 

You act like it's such an insane idea when they literally did that in the NLCS. It was a good plan, unfortunately they scored one run and JJ was terrible.

 

Again, please stop acting like the Colorado game was the first time Hader looked ugly as a closer this year. There are 14 other home runs the guy gave up in less than 80 innings. A guy with that propensity for home runs is really not who I want pitching against the meat of a very good lineup in a 1-2 run game.

 

At the very least take him out of the game when it's obvious it's not his night, which was very obvious last night. Instead we let it ride like it was May 15th.

 

Quit it with the "hard to follow crap" and the insinuations that I have to be crazy or stupid. I've been totally consistent in how I would've used Hader. The first guy out, HOPING he takes the 5th and 6th - then any combination of matchups until you can get the ball to Pomeranz. If he looks bad, you have to go longer relief, but there were ways to win that game last night even with bad Hader showing up.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't even know where you pulled that "rest of the pen is a disaster" thing from. I never said anything even close to that.

 

If you're referring to this "You're absolutely right about Guerra or anybody else going in there and blowing it, but literally the exact reason I didn't want Hader closing that game out came true." Then your comprehension needs work. I wasn't saying Guerra would blow it, I was conceding that if he or anyone else did people would be screaming that Player X should have been left in.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

How much of that is just our ingrained pessimism as Brewers fans though?

 

Fair, a lot of it.