2020 Brewers rotation

[KeithStone53151]

I think you're being a little too dismissive of Chacin, who's a career 20 WAR pitcher and had five solid sub 4 ERA seasons before becoming a Brewer with three of those in Colorado. He's a finesse pitcher and when he's off it can be ugly as it was last year when he also battled nagging injuries. It wouldn't shock me in the least if he returns to form as a big league starter.

 

His stuff was much better for most of those sub 4 era seasons. His first season with the Brewers and 2nd half the prior season were the classic "reinvent himself as a pitcher" seasons where he threw half sliders half fastballs. For starters, that catches up with your arm. Also, Chacin needs extended stretches of basically spotting those pitches exactly where he wants to have success as he's a 2 pitch starter and only the slider is plus. In 2019, he could spot the slider consistently but not the fastball. We saw the results. On top of that, even when he was on in 2018...I was still generally surprised he posted a 3.5 ERA considering his metrics. K rate, BB rate, BABIP, contact stats. Looking at those for 2018 don't paint the picture of a 3.5 ERA guy.

 

You look at Woodruff stuff and those same metrics for 2019 Woodruff, it's clear who the better pitcher is and it's not close.

[KeithStone53151]

I think you're being a little too dismissive of Chacin, who's a career 20 WAR pitcher and had five solid sub 4 ERA seasons before becoming a Brewer with three of those in Colorado. He's a finesse pitcher and when he's off it can be ugly as it was last year when he also battled nagging injuries. It wouldn't shock me in the least if he returns to form as a big league starter.

 

His stuff was much better for most of those sub 4 era seasons. His first season with the Brewers and 2nd half the prior season were the classic "reinvent himself as a pitcher" seasons where he threw half sliders half fastballs. For starters, that catches up with your arm. Also, Chacin needs extended stretches of basically spotting those pitches exactly where he wants to have success as he's a 2 pitch starter and only the slider is plus. In 2019, he could spot the slider consistently but not the fastball. We saw the results. On top of that, even when he was on in 2018...I was still generally surprised he posted a 3.5 ERA considering his metrics. K rate, BB rate, BABIP, contact stats. Looking at those for 2018 don't paint the picture of a 3.5 ERA guy.

 

You look at Woodruff stuff and those same metrics for 2019 Woodruff, it's clear who the better pitcher is and it's not close.

[TJseven7]

I think you're being a little too dismissive of Chacin, who's a career 20 WAR pitcher and had five solid sub 4 ERA seasons before becoming a Brewer with three of those in Colorado. He's a finesse pitcher and when he's off it can be ugly as it was last year when he also battled nagging injuries. It wouldn't shock me in the least if he returns to form as a big league starter.

 

His stuff was much better for most of those sub 4 era seasons. His first season with the Brewers and 2nd half the prior season were the classic "reinvent himself as a pitcher" seasons where he threw half sliders half fastballs. For starters, that catches up with your arm. Also, Chacin needs extended stretches of basically spotting those pitches exactly where he wants to have success as he's a 2 pitch starter and only the slider is plus. In 2019, he could spot the slider consistently but not the fastball. We saw the results. On top of that, even when he was on in 2018...I was still generally surprised he posted a 3.5 ERA considering his metrics. K rate, BB rate, BABIP, contact stats. Looking at those for 2018 don't paint the picture of a 3.5 ERA guy.

 

You look at Woodruff stuff and those same metrics for 2019 Woodruff, it's clear who the better pitcher is and it's not close.

 

That's a lot of thinking to explain to create a story about why a guy with one of the most dominant sliders in baseball fell on his face with a new ball that destroyed a lot of slider pitchers.

[TJseven7]

I think you're being a little too dismissive of Chacin, who's a career 20 WAR pitcher and had five solid sub 4 ERA seasons before becoming a Brewer with three of those in Colorado. He's a finesse pitcher and when he's off it can be ugly as it was last year when he also battled nagging injuries. It wouldn't shock me in the least if he returns to form as a big league starter.

 

His stuff was much better for most of those sub 4 era seasons. His first season with the Brewers and 2nd half the prior season were the classic "reinvent himself as a pitcher" seasons where he threw half sliders half fastballs. For starters, that catches up with your arm. Also, Chacin needs extended stretches of basically spotting those pitches exactly where he wants to have success as he's a 2 pitch starter and only the slider is plus. In 2019, he could spot the slider consistently but not the fastball. We saw the results. On top of that, even when he was on in 2018...I was still generally surprised he posted a 3.5 ERA considering his metrics. K rate, BB rate, BABIP, contact stats. Looking at those for 2018 don't paint the picture of a 3.5 ERA guy.

 

You look at Woodruff stuff and those same metrics for 2019 Woodruff, it's clear who the better pitcher is and it's not close.

 

That's a lot of thinking to explain to create a story about why a guy with one of the most dominant sliders in baseball fell on his face with a new ball that destroyed a lot of slider pitchers.

[sveumrules]

In 2017 Junior Guerra, Zach Davies, Wily Peralta, Chase Anderson & Jimmy Nelson constituted our opening day rotation. Guerra got hurt opening day & was replaced by Tommy Milone & eventually Matt Garza. Ultimately an outlier season from Anderson, Nelson's breakout (which finally came after 436 mediocre MLB IP) & Davies doing Davies things carried the rotation to a top 10 finish in both runs allowed & FIP based WAR while the team exceeded expectations by winning 86 games & just missing the postseason.

 

In 2018 our opening day rotation was Anderson, Jhouyls, Suter & Davies with Guerra & Miley waiting in the wings injured. The Chacin & Miley signings hadn't inspired much confidence, most thought Chase would regress & Guerra should already be in the bullpen. Ultimately it was an underwhelming group coming in 19th by FIP based WAR & 15th by runs allowed based WAR. Yet, the team exceeded expectations winning the division & made it within a game of the World Series.

 

In 2019 we finally had the long awaited Brewer fan dream. Not one, not two, but three count em three starting pitching prospects, of varying degrees of bona fide-ness, all in the opening day rotation. Many thought it was a risky strategy for a team hoping to contend & it was. Two of the three flopped (plus Chacin) & the rotation, now under the tutelage of Chris Hook, came in about the same as the year before 20th fWAR/15th rWAR. On a team level the projections were once again beat, even if fan expectations were not necessarily exceeded, as the Brewers made the postseason & nearly knocked out the eventual WS champs.

 

So three years, three uninspiring opening day rotations with varying question marks that have ultimately turned in mediocre results (13th rWAR/17th fWAR, 2017-19) yet on a team level we have won the 8th most games in MLB over that span, same as the Cubs & more than the Rays, A's, Cardinals, Braves, etc.

 

What I guess I'm saying is the 2020 rotation has plenty of question marks. I would guess they will not finish the season as a top 10 group. I also do not believe this will deter the Brewers from delivering another summer of entertaining, competitive baseball.

[djoctagone]

craig counsell has hinted that the rotation will be brett anderson, adrian houser, josh lindblom and brandon woodruff as locks.

 

eric lauer and freddy peralta battle it out for the final spot, with corbin burnes next in line. non-roster invitee shelby miller in line after that.

[TURBO]

craig counsell has hinted that the rotation will be brett anderson, adrian houser, josh lindblom and brandon woodruff as locks.

 

eric lauer and freddy peralta battle it out for the final spot, with corbin burnes next in line. non-roster invitee shelby miller in line after that.

 

Hopefully, that is not set in stone. Once these guys get going, I'm hoping that CC is able to pick the best 5, not the predetermined 5...

[TJseven7]

Houser locked in over Lauer is a fascinating thought for someone to have. Lauer has been a better starter every single step of the way and his FB cutter curve is all trending in the right direction.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Houser locked in over Lauer is a fascinating thought for someone to have. Lauer has been a better starter every single step of the way and his FB cutter curve is all trending in the right direction.

 

It's actually not that fascinating. Houser pretty clearly has more on his fastball, which probably gives him a higher upside. In any case, regardless of what you personally think, the Brewers are, by all indications, considering Houser a surefire member of the rotation, while Lauer is a bubble guy.

[long ball]

I think the biggest take away from that Counsell quote is Peralta and Burnes will both be stretched out as starters. What 5 pitchers start the year in the rotation isn't of particular importance, IMO. Last year only Davies and Woodruff were mainstays in the rotation from start to finish while guys like Houser and Anderson got opportunities later on and held down a rotation spot after coming out of spring in different roles.

[brewcrewdue80]

Man how is it that Lauer is battling for 5th? You traded a SP for a possible SP? Makes me wonder where Lauer is in terms of control clock? So Urias really was the high get in that trade?

 

Lauer has 1.160 service time. He'll be a Super 2 unless he was in the minors about 50? Days. That would be rough and obvious if they left him down there that long and obvious to a 2.120 service finish on season getting out of Arb yr 1 next offseason.

[pacopete4]

Houser locked in over Lauer is a fascinating thought for someone to have. Lauer has been a better starter every single step of the way and his FB cutter curve is all trending in the right direction.

 

I’m dead set on Houser not being a starter so obviously I agree here. Also a very weird trade made if he’s not given a chance to be in your rotation.

[brewmann04]

Let the 5 best get the rotation spot.

[Bulldogboy]

I really love what we have seen from Peralta in the pen. I guess it's a nice fall back option. I hope that Lauer wins a job also. If Shelby Miller is option seven or eight this rotation is in serious trouble.

[brewerfan82]

I really love what we have seen from Peralta in the pen. I guess it's a nice fall back option. I hope that Lauer wins a job also. If Shelby Miller is option seven or eight this rotation is in serious trouble.

 

2019 Options 8+ (based on games started):

 

I think you may be over-emphasizing the demise of the rotation based on who may be the 8th option. It wouldn't take much for him to outproduce the guys we had filling those starts last year, not to mention Stearns has been pretty adept at grabbing a guy or two in season if needbe, which would push Miller even further down the line if he hasn't shown he's having a bounce back season.

[TJseven7]

Houser locked in over Lauer is a fascinating thought for someone to have. Lauer has been a better starter every single step of the way and his FB cutter curve is all trending in the right direction.

 

I’m dead set on Houser not being a starter so obviously I agree here. Also a very weird trade made if he’s not given a chance to be in your rotation.

 

That's the other reason it's fascinating despite other's stating its not. You traded Davies for Anderson and a guy who has pitched 52 starts in the MLB who you don't see as a starter? Your going to go with a guy who has performed worse than him every step of the way because he has a nice duo of FBs?

 

18 starts. 4.57. 4.5 innings per start

vs

52 starts. 4.43. 5 innings per start. 5.11 last year. And younger by 2 years.

 

I'd rather have Davies than Lauer and Anderson if you're going to make Lauer a reliever. Why trade a good cheap pitcher for a guy who you don't see as a starter and a OF prospect who flew up the rankings for a middle infielder who is loosing his prospect luster?

[sveumrules]

Houser locked in over Lauer is a fascinating thought for someone to have. Lauer has been a better starter every single step of the way and his FB cutter curve is all trending in the right direction.

 

I’m dead set on Houser not being a starter so obviously I agree here. Also a very weird trade made if he’s not given a chance to be in your rotation.

 

It sounds like Lauer is being given a chance, just not a guarantee.

 

I would expect him to end up in the rotation over Peralta/Burnes at this point because we gave up value to acquire him, he was better last year & his stuff theoretically doesn't play up in the bullpen as much as Corbin/Freddy.

 

There's also over a month until opening day, the rotation will likely be fungible throughout the season & I'd imagine everyone will end up getting a chance at some point.

 

Houser entered last year a clear step behind Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta in the pecking order & ended up out producing two out of those three guys. I don't think pecking order in February will ultimately mean much.

 

Outside of Brett Anderson, where a healthy serviceable season is really his peak at this point, & Linblom who is kind of a wild card coming back over from Korea, the other five guys still have plenty of upside & growth potential. I'm excited to see how it all plays out.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

In the whole scheme of the season, who really cares if Houser is in the rotation over Lauer in April? odds are they will both make a lot of starts for the Brewers this year, barring injury.

[MVP2110]

Yep I kind of look at it as Woodruff, Anderson, Houser, Lindblom, Lauer, Peralta, & probably Burnes will each start quite a few games this season

[TJseven7]

In the whole scheme of the season, who really cares if Houser is in the rotation over Lauer in April? odds are they will both make a lot of starts for the Brewers this year, barring injury.

 

Who really cares if Peralta and Burnes were in the rotation in April last season?

The team who lost the central by 2 games.

 

 

Chase Anderson didn't start a game until April 20th

By then MKE had seen

4 starts by Burnes a 10.7 ERA and 5 earned in 3.1 ip vs the Cardinals. A 6-3 loss. Also lost to the Cubs 14-8 allowing 7 runs in 5 ip.

4 starts by Peralta a 7.13 ERA and 4 earned in 3 ip vs the Cardinals. A 9-5 loss. Also lost to the Angels 11-8 allowing 7 runs in 3.1 ip.

 

No biggie. It's 162 games. You can punt early in the season. Those games won't matter at seasons end, you have time to make it up.

 

Wait, we lost 2 to the Cardinals in April in terrible pitcher outings. They won by 2 games? Doesn't that mean 1 of those going to MKE would have forced a tie?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

In the whole scheme of the season, who really cares if Houser is in the rotation over Lauer in April? odds are they will both make a lot of starts for the Brewers this year, barring injury.

 

Who really cares if Peralta and Burnes were in the rotation in April last season?

The team who lost the central by 2 games.

 

 

Chase Anderson didn't start a game until April 20th

By then MKE had seen

4 starts by Burnes a 10.7 ERA and 5 earned in 3.1 ip vs the Cardinals. A 6-3 loss. Also lost to the Cubs 14-8 allowing 7 runs in 5 ip.

4 starts by Peralta a 7.13 ERA and 4 earned in 3 ip vs the Cardinals. A 9-5 loss. Also lost to the Angels 11-8 allowing 7 runs in 3.1 ip.

 

No biggie. It's 162 games. You can punt early in the season. Those games won't matter at seasons end, you have time to make it up.

 

Wait, we lost 2 to the Cardinals in April in terrible pitcher outings. They won by 2 games? Doesn't that mean 1 of those going to MKE would have forced a tie?

 

Wow, you make it sound like Houser is a dumpster fire, while Lauer is going to be a Cy Young candidate. All I'm saying is that there's a very strong possibility that both will be making a lot of starts for the Brewers. If your pick isn't the one chosen for the start of the season, it certainly isn't the end of the world. The Brewers obviously see Houser as one of their five best starters right now. That's why he'll be in the rotation. Comparing a 27-year-old who already has 18 big league starts and 130 innings on his resume to a couple rookies last season in Burnes and Peralta doesn't really work either.

 

Lauer is a 23-year-old with a ton of control remaining. I'm high on him too, but the fact of the matter is he isn't going anywhere for a long time, so he has time to develop. Also, of the four pieces of that trade, it is probably likely that Lauer was piece #4 value-wise.

[sveumrules]

ZIPS: Houser 4.09 ERA | Lauer 4.65 ERA

 

Marcel: Houser 4.04 ERA | Lauer 4.41 ERA

 

Steamer: Houser 4.23 ERA | Lauer 4.65 ERA

 

The Bat: Houser 4.30 ERA | Lauer 4.68 ERA

 

ATC: Houser 4.08 ERA | Lauer 4.63 ERA

 

Every publicly available projection system I could find has Houser a notch above Lauer, so I'm not surprised it appears as though the Brewers do.

 

Not that it really matters since projections are wrong all the time & both will likely be counted on to throw important innings for a hopefully contending club all summer long.

[monty57]

The only thing Brett Anderson is a lock for is the Injured List.

 

The only thing A Swing and A Drive is a lock for is whining about Brett Anderson.

 

Add me to the list whining about Brett Anderson. This is the one move that had me really scratching my head this offseason.

 

My guess on what Stearns liked when he signed him is that 2019 was the first time he started throwing a cutter. He threw is 13.8% of the time, and it graded out as a positive pitch for him. He threw less sliders, which graded out as a negative pitch the last couple of seasons, and he had a decent season.

 

I think Stearns sees him as another Miley-type project. Increase his cutter usage and see if he can break out.

[sveumrules]

Add me to the list whining about Brett Anderson. This is the one move that had me really scratching my head this offseason.

 

My guess on what Stearns liked when he signed him is that 2019 was the first time he started throwing a cutter. He threw is 13.8% of the time, and it graded out as a positive pitch for him. He threw less sliders, which graded out as a negative pitch the last couple of seasons, and he had a decent season.

 

I think Stearns sees him as another Miley-type project. Increase his cutter usage and see if he can break out.

 

Last year Anderson posted 2.0 FIP based WAR (72nd in MLB, exactly the same as Miley interestingly) & 3.6 runs allowed based WAR (31st in MLB, tied with Darvish).

 

Given his health history I wouldn't expect him to repeat those totals in 2020, but for five million on a one year deal you're only paying for about a win in expected production, a bar Brett has cleared in 7 of his 11 MLB seasons.

[KeithStone53151]

craig counsell has hinted that the rotation will be brett anderson, adrian houser, josh lindblom and brandon woodruff as locks.

 

eric lauer and freddy peralta battle it out for the final spot, with corbin burnes next in line. non-roster invitee shelby miller in line after that.

 

This seems like an insanely closed-minded approach to the rotation. To lock those 4 guys in so early when you have such potential in guys behind him, I just don't understand it from any perspective. You at minimum should want Burnes/Peralta/Suter/Miller to THINK they have a shot at cracking the rotation. Even if in your head, you have 4 spots locked up, it seems crazy to tip your hand like that.

 

I will not understand guaranteeing Brett freaking Anderson a rotation spot when you have multiple young and elite arm talents behind him vying for a spot. He's simply not good enough to be handed a rotation spot, he should have to earn it. You can pretty much take it to the bank that Anderson will be pulled from the rotation by May 15th with a 6+ ERA.