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2020 Brewers rotation


adambr2

I’m honestly shocked that people don’t think Lauer is a lock for the rotation. He had 3 horrendous starts in Colorado last year where he pitched a total of 8 innings and gave up 17 earned runs.

 

You remove those starts and he pitched 141.2 innings of 3.62 ERA baseball. Also in 17 of those 27 starts, he gave up 2 ER or less. In only 2 of those starts, he gave up 5 ER. He keeps you in the game basically every time he takes the mound.

 

Just for reference, Woodruff gave up 2 ER or fewer in 11 of his 20 starts (not including his 2 2 inning appearances late in the year). He gave up 5 ER or more in only 1 start.

 

I think Woodruff, Lauer, and Anderson are 3 locks for the rotation with the other guys fighting it out for the other two. Houser should also probably be starting since he has multiple pitches even though I really like him out of the bullpen. He just needs to be given the opportunity to start until he proves that he can’t. We need to develop our own starters and forcing a guy that has a 4 pitch mix into the pen when he has been a fine back of the rotation arm to date probably isn’t the best long term idea.

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I’m honestly shocked that people don’t think Lauer is a lock for the rotation. He had 3 horrendous starts in Colorado last year where he pitched a total of 8 innings and gave up 17 earned runs.

 

You remove those starts and he pitched 141.2 innings of 3.62 ERA baseball. Also in 17 of those 27 starts, he gave up 2 ER or less. In only 2 of those starts, he gave up 5 ER. He keeps you in the game basically every time he takes the mound.

 

Just for reference, Woodruff gave up 2 ER or fewer in 11 of his 20 starts (not including his 2 2 inning appearances late in the year). He gave up 5 ER or more in only 1 start.

 

I think Woodruff, Lauer, and Anderson are 3 locks for the rotation with the other guys fighting it out for the other two. Houser should also probably be starting since he has multiple pitches even though I really like him out of the bullpen. He just needs to be given the opportunity to start until he proves that he can’t. We need to develop our own starters and forcing a guy that has a 4 pitch mix into the pen when he has been a fine back of the rotation arm to date probably isn’t the best long term idea.

 

I can understand Lauer moreso than Anderson. Lauer definitely has the upside. I look at a lock as basically spring doesn't matter, he has the job. It would take something seriously crazy(or injury) for Woodruff to not be the opening day starter. I think Anderson/Lauer/Houser/Lindblom have the inside track on the other 4 jobs, but literally any of those 4 could be replaced. If Anderson looks bad or mediocre in spring while the other 3 look good and Burnes/Peralta are ridiculous...he's in the bullpen in my opinion.

 

As for Lauer specifically, I'm in agreement with you on him. For me, he's probably the 2nd most locked in guy by a wide margin but he's not even close to the Woodruff tier of locked in. Pretty much everyone else would have to look great while he looks bad in spring for any chance of him not making the rotation, but it's possible in my opinion. I don't at all agree with you on Anderson though. For me, he's a junkballer. He's an expensive 6th/7th starter and an insurance policy that you hope you minimally need if at all. For varying reasons, I view Anderson/Houser/Lindblom as the most likely options to get bumped by Burnes/Peralta. Houser has options and would be the best pen arm of the 3, and Lindblom is so unknown how his stuff will play. Anderson is the most "known" quantity, but he also has by far the lowest ceiling and worst stuff.

 

The ideal best rotation in my opinion would be Woodruff/Lauer/Burnes/Peralta/Houser. They have the best stuff of the 7 and most upside, just need to prove and earn it.

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I’m honestly shocked that people don’t think Lauer is a lock for the rotation. He had 3 horrendous starts in Colorado last year where he pitched a total of 8 innings and gave up 17 earned runs.

 

You remove those starts and he pitched 141.2 innings of 3.62 ERA baseball. Also in 17 of those 27 starts, he gave up 2 ER or less. In only 2 of those starts, he gave up 5 ER. He keeps you in the game basically every time he takes the mound.

 

Just for reference, Woodruff gave up 2 ER or fewer in 11 of his 20 starts (not including his 2 2 inning appearances late in the year). He gave up 5 ER or more in only 1 start.

 

I think Woodruff, Lauer, and Anderson are 3 locks for the rotation with the other guys fighting it out for the other two. Houser should also probably be starting since he has multiple pitches even though I really like him out of the bullpen. He just needs to be given the opportunity to start until he proves that he can’t. We need to develop our own starters and forcing a guy that has a 4 pitch mix into the pen when he has been a fine back of the rotation arm to date probably isn’t the best long term idea.

 

I can understand Lauer moreso than Anderson. Lauer definitely has the upside. I look at a lock as basically spring doesn't matter, he has the job. It would take something seriously crazy(or injury) for Woodruff to not be the opening day starter. I think Anderson/Lauer/Houser/Lindblom have the inside track on the other 4 jobs, but literally any of those 4 could be replaced. If Anderson looks bad or mediocre in spring while the other 3 look good and Burnes/Peralta are ridiculous...he's in the bullpen in my opinion.

 

As for Lauer specifically, I'm in agreement with you on him. For me, he's probably the 2nd most locked in guy by a wide margin but he's not even close to the Woodruff tier of locked in. Pretty much everyone else would have to look great while he looks bad in spring for any chance of him not making the rotation, but it's possible in my opinion. I don't at all agree with you on Anderson though. For me, he's a junkballer. He's an expensive 6th/7th starter and an insurance policy that you hope you minimally need if at all. For varying reasons, I view Anderson/Houser/Lindblom as the most likely options to get bumped by Burnes/Peralta. Houser has options and would be the best pen arm of the 3, and Lindblom is so unknown how his stuff will play. Anderson is the most "known" quantity, but he also has by far the lowest ceiling and worst stuff.

 

The ideal best rotation in my opinion would be Woodruff/Lauer/Burnes/Peralta/Houser. They have the best stuff of the 7 and most upside, just need to prove and earn it.

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I’m honestly shocked that people don’t think Lauer is a lock for the rotation. He had 3 horrendous starts in Colorado last year where he pitched a total of 8 innings and gave up 17 earned runs.

 

You remove those starts and he pitched 141.2 innings of 3.62 ERA baseball. Also in 17 of those 27 starts, he gave up 2 ER or less. In only 2 of those starts, he gave up 5 ER. He keeps you in the game basically every time he takes the mound.

 

Just for reference, Woodruff gave up 2 ER or fewer in 11 of his 20 starts (not including his 2 2 inning appearances late in the year). He gave up 5 ER or more in only 1 start.

 

I think Woodruff, Lauer, and Anderson are 3 locks for the rotation with the other guys fighting it out for the other two. Houser should also probably be starting since he has multiple pitches even though I really like him out of the bullpen. He just needs to be given the opportunity to start until he proves that he can’t. We need to develop our own starters and forcing a guy that has a 4 pitch mix into the pen when he has been a fine back of the rotation arm to date probably isn’t the best long term idea.

 

Lauer also gave up 5 in 6IPs at S.F. - 4 in 5 IPs at Ariz - 5 in 4.2 at Chi - 4 in 2.1 at the Mets - and some other poorer outings. I think the biggest thing on Lauer is he pitched in one of the most friendly pitcher's parks in all of baseball and struggled a lot on the road. Still he's probably the Brewer's 3rd best option to start, so maybe you're right.

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I’m honestly shocked that people don’t think Lauer is a lock for the rotation. He had 3 horrendous starts in Colorado last year where he pitched a total of 8 innings and gave up 17 earned runs.

 

You remove those starts and he pitched 141.2 innings of 3.62 ERA baseball. Also in 17 of those 27 starts, he gave up 2 ER or less. In only 2 of those starts, he gave up 5 ER. He keeps you in the game basically every time he takes the mound.

 

Just for reference, Woodruff gave up 2 ER or fewer in 11 of his 20 starts (not including his 2 2 inning appearances late in the year). He gave up 5 ER or more in only 1 start.

 

I think Woodruff, Lauer, and Anderson are 3 locks for the rotation with the other guys fighting it out for the other two. Houser should also probably be starting since he has multiple pitches even though I really like him out of the bullpen. He just needs to be given the opportunity to start until he proves that he can’t. We need to develop our own starters and forcing a guy that has a 4 pitch mix into the pen when he has been a fine back of the rotation arm to date probably isn’t the best long term idea.

 

Lauer also gave up 5 in 6IPs at S.F. - 4 in 5 IPs at Ariz - 5 in 4.2 at Chi - 4 in 2.1 at the Mets - and some other poorer outings. I think the biggest thing on Lauer is he pitched in one of the most friendly pitcher's parks in all of baseball and struggled a lot on the road. Still he's probably the Brewer's 3rd best option to start, so maybe you're right.

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Maybe I'm wrong in general about this, but I feel like last year around this time the general sentiment was that the rotation was good enough with a mix of guys like Chacin, Anderson, Davies plus adding two of Peralta/Burnes/Woodruff, plus hopefully getting Nelson back before the trade deadline. Then Spring Training happened and many were geeked at the fact all three of the young pitchers won opening day rotation spots. Then April happened and we all wondered where it all went so horribly wrong. Then September happened and the Brewers wound up winning 89 games and a wild card berth to make the postseason a 2nd straight year despite having hardly any quality contributions from guys who were the perceived best starting pitchers in Spring Training 2019 down the stretch either due to injury (Woodruff) or poor performance (Chacin, Burnes, Peralta), or both (Nelson).

 

This offseason it seem like the Brewers have actually amassed a deeper group of starting pitching options, now have alot more confidence in Woodruff being a quality starter, and aren't requiring immediate rotation contributions from the likes of Peralta or Burnes if they don't show they're ready for that workload during Spring Training. I actually like their rotation outlook much more than where they were at last year at this time.

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Maybe I'm wrong in general about this, but I feel like last year around this time the general sentiment was that the rotation was good enough with a mix of guys like Chacin, Anderson, Davies plus adding two of Peralta/Burnes/Woodruff, plus hopefully getting Nelson back before the trade deadline. Then Spring Training happened and many were geeked at the fact all three of the young pitchers won opening day rotation spots. Then April happened and we all wondered where it all went so horribly wrong. Then September happened and the Brewers wound up winning 89 games and a wild card berth to make the postseason a 2nd straight year despite having hardly any quality contributions from guys who were the perceived best starting pitchers in Spring Training 2019 down the stretch either due to injury (Woodruff) or poor performance (Chacin, Burnes, Peralta), or both (Nelson).

 

This offseason it seem like the Brewers have actually amassed a deeper group of starting pitching options, now have alot more confidence in Woodruff being a quality starter, and aren't requiring immediate rotation contributions from the likes of Peralta or Burnes if they don't show they're ready for that workload during Spring Training. I actually like their rotation outlook much more than where they were at last year at this time.

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This offseason it seem like the Brewers have actually amassed a deeper group of starting pitching options, now have alot more confidence in Woodruff being a quality starter, and aren't requiring immediate rotation contributions from the likes of Peralta or Burnes if they don't show they're ready for that workload during Spring Training. I actually like their rotation outlook much more than where they were at last year at this time.

 

Completely agreed, all points. Woodruff vs Chacin opening day starter is such a game changer. 3 of the other 4 have a ceiling of 2018 Chacin and solid floors, and then Burnes/Peralta have Cy Young ceiling albeit with massive risk.

 

This outlook is so much better than 2019 at this point and it's really not close.

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This offseason it seem like the Brewers have actually amassed a deeper group of starting pitching options, now have alot more confidence in Woodruff being a quality starter, and aren't requiring immediate rotation contributions from the likes of Peralta or Burnes if they don't show they're ready for that workload during Spring Training. I actually like their rotation outlook much more than where they were at last year at this time.

 

Completely agreed, all points. Woodruff vs Chacin opening day starter is such a game changer. 3 of the other 4 have a ceiling of 2018 Chacin and solid floors, and then Burnes/Peralta have Cy Young ceiling albeit with massive risk.

 

This outlook is so much better than 2019 at this point and it's really not close.

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I’m honestly shocked that people don’t think Lauer is a lock for the rotation. He had 3 horrendous starts in Colorado last year where he pitched a total of 8 innings and gave up 17 earned runs.

 

You remove those starts and he pitched 141.2 innings of 3.62 ERA baseball. Also in 17 of those 27 starts, he gave up 2 ER or less. In only 2 of those starts, he gave up 5 ER. He keeps you in the game basically every time he takes the mound.

 

Just for reference, Woodruff gave up 2 ER or fewer in 11 of his 20 starts (not including his 2 2 inning appearances late in the year). He gave up 5 ER or more in only 1 start.

 

I think Woodruff, Lauer, and Anderson are 3 locks for the rotation with the other guys fighting it out for the other two. Houser should also probably be starting since he has multiple pitches even though I really like him out of the bullpen. He just needs to be given the opportunity to start until he proves that he can’t. We need to develop our own starters and forcing a guy that has a 4 pitch mix into the pen when he has been a fine back of the rotation arm to date probably isn’t the best long term idea.

 

Lauer also gave up 5 in 6IPs at S.F. - 4 in 5 IPs at Ariz - 5 in 4.2 at Chi - 4 in 2.1 at the Mets - and some other poorer outings. I think the biggest thing on Lauer is he pitched in one of the most friendly pitcher's parks in all of baseball and struggled a lot on the road. Still he's probably the Brewer's 3rd best option to start, so maybe you're right.

 

Those were the ones I included above. I took out his 3 horrendous Colorado starts. But I’ll agree that his road ERA of 4.5 (after removing his 3 terrible Colorado starts) is a little concerning. But he is only 24 years old. I do think he will take a step forward this year similar to Woodruff and become the 1B to Woodruff’s 1A. Just don’t make him start at Coors!

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I’m honestly shocked that people don’t think Lauer is a lock for the rotation. He had 3 horrendous starts in Colorado last year where he pitched a total of 8 innings and gave up 17 earned runs.

 

You remove those starts and he pitched 141.2 innings of 3.62 ERA baseball. Also in 17 of those 27 starts, he gave up 2 ER or less. In only 2 of those starts, he gave up 5 ER. He keeps you in the game basically every time he takes the mound.

 

Just for reference, Woodruff gave up 2 ER or fewer in 11 of his 20 starts (not including his 2 2 inning appearances late in the year). He gave up 5 ER or more in only 1 start.

 

I think Woodruff, Lauer, and Anderson are 3 locks for the rotation with the other guys fighting it out for the other two. Houser should also probably be starting since he has multiple pitches even though I really like him out of the bullpen. He just needs to be given the opportunity to start until he proves that he can’t. We need to develop our own starters and forcing a guy that has a 4 pitch mix into the pen when he has been a fine back of the rotation arm to date probably isn’t the best long term idea.

 

Lauer also gave up 5 in 6IPs at S.F. - 4 in 5 IPs at Ariz - 5 in 4.2 at Chi - 4 in 2.1 at the Mets - and some other poorer outings. I think the biggest thing on Lauer is he pitched in one of the most friendly pitcher's parks in all of baseball and struggled a lot on the road. Still he's probably the Brewer's 3rd best option to start, so maybe you're right.

 

Those were the ones I included above. I took out his 3 horrendous Colorado starts. But I’ll agree that his road ERA of 4.5 (after removing his 3 terrible Colorado starts) is a little concerning. But he is only 24 years old. I do think he will take a step forward this year similar to Woodruff and become the 1B to Woodruff’s 1A. Just don’t make him start at Coors!

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This offseason it seem like the Brewers have actually amassed a deeper group of starting pitching options, now have alot more confidence in Woodruff being a quality starter, and aren't requiring immediate rotation contributions from the likes of Peralta or Burnes if they don't show they're ready for that workload during Spring Training. I actually like their rotation outlook much more than where they were at last year at this time.

 

Completely agreed, all points. Woodruff vs Chacin opening day starter is such a game changer. 3 of the other 4 have a ceiling of 2018 Chacin and solid floors, and then Burnes/Peralta have Cy Young ceiling albeit with massive risk.

 

This outlook is so much better than 2019 at this point and it's really not close.

 

Chacin was coming off a 35 start 192 IP 3.5 ERA season.

Woodruff a 22 start 121.1 IP 3.62 ERA season.

 

Saying what you said is a lot of hindsight and projection. I don't think 3 guys have a chance to be a 3.5 ERA 192 IP 35 start guy. Including Woodruff.

 

You have 1 guy. Anderson Lindblom Lauer are hopefully a shade south of 4. They are not 3.5 guys. All you need from the last 4 are innings at 4 ERA. Avoid black holes.

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This offseason it seem like the Brewers have actually amassed a deeper group of starting pitching options, now have alot more confidence in Woodruff being a quality starter, and aren't requiring immediate rotation contributions from the likes of Peralta or Burnes if they don't show they're ready for that workload during Spring Training. I actually like their rotation outlook much more than where they were at last year at this time.

 

Completely agreed, all points. Woodruff vs Chacin opening day starter is such a game changer. 3 of the other 4 have a ceiling of 2018 Chacin and solid floors, and then Burnes/Peralta have Cy Young ceiling albeit with massive risk.

 

This outlook is so much better than 2019 at this point and it's really not close.

 

Chacin was coming off a 35 start 192 IP 3.5 ERA season.

Woodruff a 22 start 121.1 IP 3.62 ERA season.

 

Saying what you said is a lot of hindsight and projection. I don't think 3 guys have a chance to be a 3.5 ERA 192 IP 35 start guy. Including Woodruff.

 

You have 1 guy. Anderson Lindblom Lauer are hopefully a shade south of 4. They are not 3.5 guys. All you need from the last 4 are innings at 4 ERA. Avoid black holes.

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It was blatantly obvious as it was happening that chacin was having the year if his life. His stuff made it very clear he has no business succeeding to the degree he did. Woodruff meanwhile had the look of a sub 3 era but the results fell short, at least in part due to his injury.

 

As for the other 3, I said their ceiling was 2018 chacin. I tend to agree they are more likely in the low 4s. I also was referring to all but Anderson when I referred to 3 of 4. Anderson's ceiling is probably closer to 4. Houser and lauer have the stuff and lindblom...we don't know how his stuff is going to play against mlb hitters, that splitter might be the real deal.

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It was blatantly obvious as it was happening that chacin was having the year if his life. His stuff made it very clear he has no business succeeding to the degree he did. Woodruff meanwhile had the look of a sub 3 era but the results fell short, at least in part due to his injury.

 

As for the other 3, I said their ceiling was 2018 chacin. I tend to agree they are more likely in the low 4s. I also was referring to all but Anderson when I referred to 3 of 4. Anderson's ceiling is probably closer to 4. Houser and lauer have the stuff and lindblom...we don't know how his stuff is going to play against mlb hitters, that splitter might be the real deal.

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the 192 IP + postseason innings were a red flag to me on Chacin for 2019....looking back through his career, any year he got got close to 175IP+ was followed by a season where he was injured/ineffective. The exception was his 2017 with the Padres at 180IP followed by his really good 2018 with the Brewers. He was due for a clunker season and we sure saw that in 2019 when it was obvious his slider wasn't nearly as sharp as it needed to be following a heavy workload in 2018.

 

I also think this year's rotation and overall pitching staff is much more likely to have a few rotation spots manned by interchangeable pitchers...there seems to be alot of guys competing for starting roles that could also fit into multi-inning relief roles - wouldn't surprise me to see a good number of games managed like bullpen games, with two of these guys combining for innings 1-6 or 1-7 before turning things over to the late inning relievers. It wouldn't be strict piggybacking, but I can see CC having a quicker than usual hook for a good number of starters knowing he's got 5-6 options in the pen who can go multiple innings. I think at this point Woodruff is the one starter CC would consistently want in the game through innings 6-7, while the other arms would probably be capped at 5IP until they prove able to get through lineups 3 times.

 

It might take a little while to come together since Knebel is unlikely to be on the Opening Day roster, but with 13 pitchers the Brewers staff will likely be full of guys they'd be comfortable giving 3-4 inning stints to.

 

Late inning pen options:

Hader

Knebel

Suter

Black

Claudio

Phelps

Devin Williams

Wahl

 

Starters / long inning options

Woodruff

Anderson

Burnes

Lindblom

Houser

Peralta

Lauer

 

Stash one each of the late inning and starter/multi-inning options above in AAA and you have 13 pitchers on a MLB staff that gives you a ton of options on how to get 27 outs.

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the 192 IP + postseason innings were a red flag to me on Chacin for 2019....looking back through his career, any year he got got close to 175IP+ was followed by a season where he was injured/ineffective. The exception was his 2017 with the Padres at 180IP followed by his really good 2018 with the Brewers. He was due for a clunker season and we sure saw that in 2019 when it was obvious his slider wasn't nearly as sharp as it needed to be following a heavy workload in 2018.

 

I also think this year's rotation and overall pitching staff is much more likely to have a few rotation spots manned by interchangeable pitchers...there seems to be alot of guys competing for starting roles that could also fit into multi-inning relief roles - wouldn't surprise me to see a good number of games managed like bullpen games, with two of these guys combining for innings 1-6 or 1-7 before turning things over to the late inning relievers. It wouldn't be strict piggybacking, but I can see CC having a quicker than usual hook for a good number of starters knowing he's got 5-6 options in the pen who can go multiple innings. I think at this point Woodruff is the one starter CC would consistently want in the game through innings 6-7, while the other arms would probably be capped at 5IP until they prove able to get through lineups 3 times.

 

It might take a little while to come together since Knebel is unlikely to be on the Opening Day roster, but with 13 pitchers the Brewers staff will likely be full of guys they'd be comfortable giving 3-4 inning stints to.

 

Late inning pen options:

Hader

Knebel

Suter

Black

Claudio

Phelps

Devin Williams

Wahl

 

Starters / long inning options

Woodruff

Anderson

Burnes

Lindblom

Houser

Peralta

Lauer

 

Stash one each of the late inning and starter/multi-inning options above in AAA and you have 13 pitchers on a MLB staff that gives you a ton of options on how to get 27 outs.

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It was blatantly obvious as it was happening that chacin was having the year if his life. His stuff made it very clear he has no business succeeding to the degree he did. Woodruff meanwhile had the look of a sub 3 era but the results fell short, at least in part due to his injury.

 

As for the other 3, I said their ceiling was 2018 chacin. I tend to agree they are more likely in the low 4s. I also was referring to all but Anderson when I referred to 3 of 4. Anderson's ceiling is probably closer to 4. Houser and lauer have the stuff and lindblom...we don't know how his stuff is going to play against mlb hitters, that splitter might be the real deal.

 

I think you're being a little too dismissive of Chacin, who's a career 20 WAR pitcher and had five solid sub 4 ERA seasons before becoming a Brewer with three of those in Colorado. He's a finesse pitcher and when he's off it can be ugly as it was last year when he also battled nagging injuries. It wouldn't shock me in the least if he returns to form as a big league starter.

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It was blatantly obvious as it was happening that chacin was having the year if his life. His stuff made it very clear he has no business succeeding to the degree he did. Woodruff meanwhile had the look of a sub 3 era but the results fell short, at least in part due to his injury.

 

As for the other 3, I said their ceiling was 2018 chacin. I tend to agree they are more likely in the low 4s. I also was referring to all but Anderson when I referred to 3 of 4. Anderson's ceiling is probably closer to 4. Houser and lauer have the stuff and lindblom...we don't know how his stuff is going to play against mlb hitters, that splitter might be the real deal.

 

I think you're being a little too dismissive of Chacin, who's a career 20 WAR pitcher and had five solid sub 4 ERA seasons before becoming a Brewer with three of those in Colorado. He's a finesse pitcher and when he's off it can be ugly as it was last year when he also battled nagging injuries. It wouldn't shock me in the least if he returns to form as a big league starter.

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