2020 Brewers rotation

[JohnBriggs12]

Peralta has had his moments starting. He's got the most upside outside of Woodruff.. It's a good sign that they're happy with Knebel's progress too

[clancyphile]

MLB.com's bold prediction is that Corbin Burnes clicks:

https://www.mlb.com/news/bold-spring-training-predictions-for-each-mlb-team

[Lathund]

Wasn't the ball a big issue for slider pitchers last year. I've read multiple reports that pitchers couldn't get a feel for their slider and that many slider dominant (hello Chacin) pitchers imploded last year. Is pushing Burnes to a more slider dominant mix a good idea? Do we have any knowledge of them fixing the ball after last years mess?

 

Yeah there was a lot of that, both with regards to issues with grip, and with it breaking differently. I don't know whether it applied more to hard slider, or affected those throwing slurves or more cutter-like sliders ("slutter" sounds wrong, however descriptive it may be...), but however prevalent it was it wasn't universal, some sliders were as good as ever. I haven't heard anything about whether the ball will be different again, I don't believe MLB have said anything about it. Whatever issues Burnes had, the slider wasn't one of them. So in his case, it might make sense to double down on it. Will just be interesting to see what pitch(es) will be used to work off it, mostly how to handle lefties. One way to illustrate the differences between facing lefties in righties is this; vs RHB Burnes had a 51 K to 3 BB (Probably fueled by that 58% swing-and-miss rate on that slider). Against LHB it was 19 K to 17 BB.

 

Whatever the approach ends up being, I think Burnes is just too good of a pitcher to not bounce back and have at least a solid year. I even expect him to be among our best pitchers in 2020.

[TJseven7]

Wasn't the ball a big issue for slider pitchers last year. I've read multiple reports that pitchers couldn't get a feel for their slider and that many slider dominant (hello Chacin) pitchers imploded last year. Is pushing Burnes to a more slider dominant mix a good idea? Do we have any knowledge of them fixing the ball after last years mess?

 

Yeah there was a lot of that, both with regards to issues with grip, and with it breaking differently. I don't know whether it applied more to hard slider, or affected those throwing slurves or more cutter-like sliders ("slutter" sounds wrong, however descriptive it may be...), but however prevalent it was it wasn't universal, some sliders were as good as ever. I haven't heard anything about whether the ball will be different again, I don't believe MLB have said anything about it. Whatever issues Burnes had, the slider wasn't one of them. So in his case, it might make sense to double down on it. Will just be interesting to see what pitch(es) will be used to work off it, mostly how to handle lefties. One way to illustrate the differences between facing lefties in righties is this; vs RHB Burnes had a 51 K to 3 BB (Probably fueled by that 58% swing-and-miss rate on that slider). Against LHB it was 19 K to 17 BB.

 

Whatever the approach ends up being, I think Burnes is just too good of a pitcher to not bounce back and have at least a solid year. I even expect him to be among our best pitchers in 2020.

 

Unfortunately the SL was the only good pitch he had last year. He threw it 30% of the time. 60% SL ratio is uncommon. Even Chacin was at 45-50%.

[CheezWizHed]

Johnson was a huge proponent on high FB and Burnes thrived on it. It seems like he got away from that last year (he mentioned low FB troubles in that article posted above). High spin rate FB tend to "hang" or rise so I can imagine throwing it low puts it in a bad spot.

 

Whatever it is, he is my bounce-back candidate this year.

 

Also, regarding having 7-8 SPs competing. Nearly every year one guy is injured or hit hard in ST. Not to mention AAA depth or the long man in the pen. Happens every year and depth is never a problem. Most years we wish we had more.

[Ennder]

My bounce back guy is Peralta, I think there is still a chance he is a true #1 at some point.

[DHonks]

Peralta has had his moments starting. He's got the most upside outside of Woodruff.. It's a good sign that they're happy with Knebel's progress too

 

What makes him the next best after Woodruff? Burned has 4-5 pitches, Peralta currently one. Both throw hard. Both have something to prove.

[brewmann04]

I think Freddie has the most upside

[TJseven7]

Peralta has had his moments starting. He's got the most upside outside of Woodruff.. It's a good sign that they're happy with Knebel's progress too

 

What makes him the next best after Woodruff? Burned has 4-5 pitches, Peralta currently one. Both throw hard. Both have something to prove.

 

Well if you count all of Burnes offerings then Peralta actually has 3 right now.

[sveumrules]

Burnes & Peralta combined for about negative 3 WAR in 2019 by runs allowed.

 

If they are each able to turn in just average performances in 2020 that is a 7 win improvement right there.

 

They also both have upside beyond being merely average. Obviously hope springs eternal this time of year, but if they're able to pitch closer to their 2018 levels over a full season we could be looking at an even larger improvement.

[TJseven7]

Burnes & Peralta combined for about negative 3 WAR in 2019 by runs allowed.

 

If they are each able to turn in just average performances in 2020 that is a 7 win improvement right there.

 

They also both have upside beyond being merely average. Obviously hope springs eternal this time of year, but if they're able to pitch closer to their 2018 levels over a full season we could be looking at an even larger improvement.

 

They are going to have to be pretty good to accomplish 4 war in the innings they pitched. I think math failed you there.

[brewcrewdue80]

Burnes & Peralta combined for about negative 3 WAR in 2019 by runs allowed.

 

If they are each able to turn in just average performances in 2020 that is a 7 win improvement right there.

 

They also both have upside beyond being merely average. Obviously hope springs eternal this time of year, but if they're able to pitch closer to their 2018 levels over a full season we could be looking at an even larger improvement.

 

They are going to have to be pretty good to accomplish 4 war in the innings they pitched. I think math failed you there.

 

No I think he's got it about right. If these two are pitching better, they'll pitch more innings. More Innings would also eliminate Chacin's -0.7BWAR value of last season 88.2IP 5.79ERA. Jordan Lyles was worth 1.8BWAR (2.45ERA) in his 11 starts of 58.2 IP. Gio was worth 1.7BWAR (3.5ERA) 17starts in 87.1IP. If that is the case a 3.5ERA in 87IP seems reasonable to make up their value with Chacin's negative value in combined IP to be a 7win improvement. Combined that would cover 223IP of -3.9BWAR.

 

Zach Davies was worth 2.5BWAR with 3.55ERA in 159.2IP Adding to Gio's value of 87.1IP of 3.5ERA That is 4.2BWAR over a combined 247 IP. +7wins is probably a good comp for 223IP out of those two in 223IP. Just reach 3.53ERA.

 

It be one heckuva spin on the Rotation if we got Davies' value from Lauer. Woodruff's same value in more IP from him. Replacing Peralta/Burnes/Chacin with avg Peralta/Burnes in that IP comparison. That's got about 113starts covered for the rotation in my mind about 66% of the total IP for +7wins out of the rotation. Leaves 34% or 49Starts to value Houser/Lyles/Gio combined SP value of starts in '19 to maintain what 2019's rotation produced to attain a +7win value out of a Burnes/Peralta turnaround.

[BrewBalls]

I would like to see them add Walker to push which will likely push Houser to the pen where I think he is better suited.

 

What is your reasoning that Houser is better suited for a pen role vs a rotation role?

Based on his career splits splits he tends to be more dominant as a reliever and struggles when facing the line up a third time and when he throws over 51 pitches

 

SP = 80.2 IP, 4.57 ERA, 1.351 WHIP, 116 tOPS+

RP = 46.1 IP, 1.94 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, 69 tOPS+

 

1st PA in G, as SP .252/.350/.360 and a tOPS+ = 102

2nd PA in G, as SP .244/.288/.427 tOPS+ = 100

3rd PA in G, as SP .364/.391/.727 tOPS+ = 208

 

1st PA in G, as RP .203/.292/.297 tOPS+ = 68

2nd PA in G, as RP .222/.300/.333 tOPS+ = 79

 

Pitch Count

51-75 = .255/.300/.479

75-100 = .351/.368/.622

 

FYI i realize this is a small sample size to go off off but clearly he gets exposed the longer he stays in the game and due to the new rule changes for batters faced i would like to have a few pitchers in the bullpen who are capable of going multiple innings.

[Ennder]

Its a tiny sample size and it is a super tainted one as he was being stretched out during this sample so of course he isn't going to look as good as he gets tired from going further into games than he was used to. Those numbers don't mean anything at all. Houser has a complete arsenal and it has worked the 2nd time through at every level, there is no reason to not give him a chance to be a starter. This isn't Josh Hader who had 1.5 pitches so you knew that it was going to be a rough path to being a starter. Houser is a complete pitcher, you give him the chance to start until he actually gives you a decent sample that suggests he can't do it. Not 9 innings spread out over multiple stretches where he is being moved between the bullpen and the rotation.

[TJseven7]

Its a tiny sample size and it is a super tainted one as he was being stretched out during this sample so of course he isn't going to look as good as he gets tired from going further into games than he was used to. Those numbers don't mean anything at all. Houser has a complete arsenal and it has worked the 2nd time through at every level, there is no reason to not give him a chance to be a starter. This isn't Josh Hader who had 1.5 pitches so you knew that it was going to be a rough path to being a starter. Houser is a complete pitcher, you give him the chance to start until he actually gives you a decent sample that suggests he can't do it. Not 9 innings spread out over multiple stretches where he is being moved between the bullpen and the rotation.

 

His minor league starters numbers were exactly where his MLB starter numbers were last year at almost every single level.

 

He had 1 year where he was a great SP in the minors. To say that evidence means nothing at all is overstating it. Yes the sample size is small but something that clear cut should not be whimsically throw out. There's plenty of evidence that him being a 4.0 or below SP is outside his reach.

[TJseven7]

They are going to have to be pretty good to accomplish 4 war in the innings they pitched. I think math failed you there.

 

No I think he's got it about right. If these two are pitching better, they'll pitch more innings. More Innings would also eliminate Chacin's -0.7BWAR value of last season 88.2IP 5.79ERA. Jordan Lyles was worth 1.8BWAR (2.45ERA) in his 11 starts of 58.2 IP. Gio was worth 1.7BWAR (3.5ERA) 17starts in 87.1IP. If that is the case a 3.5ERA in 87IP seems reasonable to make up their value with Chacin's negative value in combined IP to be a 7win improvement. Combined that would cover 223IP of -3.9BWAR.

 

Zach Davies was worth 2.5BWAR with 3.55ERA in 159.2IP Adding to Gio's value of 87.1IP of 3.5ERA That is 4.2BWAR over a combined 247 IP. +7wins is probably a good comp for 223IP out of those two in 223IP. Just reach 3.53ERA.

 

It be one heckuva spin on the Rotation if we got Davies' value from Lauer. Woodruff's same value in more IP from him. Replacing Peralta/Burnes/Chacin with avg Peralta/Burnes in that IP comparison. That's got about 113starts covered for the rotation in my mind about 66% of the total IP for +7wins out of the rotation. Leaves 34% or 49Starts to value Houser/Lyles/Gio combined SP value of starts in '19 to maintain what 2019's rotation produced to attain a +7win value out of a Burnes/Peralta turnaround.

 

Right and gaining the 3.9 negative WAR back by replacing their innings and Chacins with quality innings is a great way to remove 4 negative war.

 

Gaining 3 additional positive WAR improvement over the starters that pitched last year is the part that's going to be difficult. You can't just go... ok this guy pitched these innings and they could do that too. To have a 7 war IMPROVEMENT you have to negate the 3 (Chacin Burnes Peralta) negative and then expound upon the WAR that other quality options were able to achieve. 88.2 on Chacin, 35.2 of Peralta, 17.2 of Burnes is only 143 innings. You had a couple bad starts from Nelson, but then your next weakest link was Houser as a starter. Pulling 3 positive WAR above and beyond Houser and Chase is going to be a big task.

[brewcrewdue80]

They are going to have to be pretty good to accomplish 4 war in the innings they pitched. I think math failed you there.

 

No I think he's got it about right. If these two are pitching better, they'll pitch more innings. More Innings would also eliminate Chacin's -0.7BWAR value of last season 88.2IP 5.79ERA. Jordan Lyles was worth 1.8BWAR (2.45ERA) in his 11 starts of 58.2 IP. Gio was worth 1.7BWAR (3.5ERA) 17starts in 87.1IP. If that is the case a 3.5ERA in 87IP seems reasonable to make up their value with Chacin's negative value in combined IP to be a 7win improvement. Combined that would cover 223IP of -3.9BWAR.

 

Zach Davies was worth 2.5BWAR with 3.55ERA in 159.2IP Adding to Gio's value of 87.1IP of 3.5ERA That is 4.2BWAR over a combined 247 IP. +7wins is probably a good comp for 223IP out of those two in 223IP. Just reach 3.53ERA.

 

It be one heckuva spin on the Rotation if we got Davies' value from Lauer. Woodruff's same value in more IP from him. Replacing Peralta/Burnes/Chacin with avg Peralta/Burnes in that IP comparison. That's got about 113starts covered for the rotation in my mind about 66% of the total IP for +7wins out of the rotation. Leaves 34% or 49Starts to value Houser/Lyles/Gio combined SP value of starts in '19 to maintain what 2019's rotation produced to attain a +7win value out of a Burnes/Peralta turnaround.

 

Right and gaining the 3.9 negative WAR back by replacing their innings and Chacins with quality innings is a great way to remove 4 negative war.

 

Gaining 3 additional positive WAR improvement over the starters that pitched last year is the part that's going to be difficult. You can't just go... ok this guy pitched these innings and they could do that too. To have a 7 war IMPROVEMENT you have to negate the 3 (Chacin Burnes Peralta) negative and then expound upon the WAR that other quality options were able to achieve. 88.2 on Chacin, 35.2 of Peralta, 17.2 of Burnes is only 143 innings. You had a couple bad starts from Nelson, but then your next weakest link was Houser as a starter. Pulling 3 positive WAR above and beyond Houser and Chase is going to be a big task.

 

Yeah I didnt put Peralta or Burnes Starts IP only in my equation. Their total value included the IP from the bullpen. Simply being these 2 have a value impact amongst themselves and total IP. I realized I forgot 1pitcher in comparing a value they could positively add for the team being Chase Anderson with a slightly higher than 4ERA but still worth over 1WAR.

I think a lock is Woodruff giving 3WAR value. Lauer giving 2.5WAR value. Combined will be more. Lindblom is an unknown til we see him start in ST. Houser i think at worst is Chase Anderson level with improvement on his own level. The argument in rotation being 7Wins better is replacing all the neg IP by the trio of Peralta-Burnes-Chacin with Avg type SP stuff. Which is about 2-2.5WAR it seems. It's not a preposterous thing to say. Like winning the lottery would have better odds than this idea on Burnes or Peralts this season happening. My added IP was found in Gio stats and IP as Id say that was reasonable for being avg. He had value in that stint. Its just value that Peralta-Burnes would take from as they eclipsed the IP total of the Neg-trio last season.

[TJseven7]

Yeah I didnt put Peralta or Burnes Starts IP only in my equation. Their total value included the IP from the bullpen. Simply being these 2 have a value impact amongst themselves and total IP. I realized I forgot 1pitcher in comparing a value they could positively add for the team being Chase Anderson with a slightly higher than 4ERA but still worth over 1WAR.

I think a lock is Woodruff giving 3WAR value. Lauer giving 2.5WAR value. Combined will be more. Lindblom is an unknown til we see him start in ST. Houser i think at worst is Chase Anderson level with improvement on his own level. The argument in rotation being 7Wins better is replacing all the neg IP by the trio of Peralta-Burnes-Chacin with Avg type SP stuff. Which is about 2-2.5WAR it seems. It's not a preposterous thing to say. Like winning the lottery would have better odds than this idea on Burnes or Peralts this season happening. My added IP was found in Gio stats and IP as Id say that was reasonable for being avg. He had value in that stint. Its just value that Peralta-Burnes would take from as they eclipsed the IP total of the Neg-trio last season.

 

Problem with 7 is:

160 starts (omit Pom and Barnes)

784.2 IP

That's like 4.9 IP per start first off. Yuck. If that alone isn't a reason to have Houser Suter Peralta and Hader picking up 2IP at a time I don't know what is.

 

160x5 is 800. So assume 180-160-160-160-140.

 

There's a big gain on the -4 bottom. I give you that.

1st starter (Lyles 11 Davies 22) 171.2 IP in 33 starts. ERA 3.18

2nd starter (Davies 9 Woodruff 22) 168 IP in 31 starts. ERA 3.60

 

It's going to be really hard to not lose WAR there. You also had 17 Gio starts at 3.8 ERA and 27 for Chase at 4.2. That covers all of 3 and pushes into 4.

 

There are 4 WAR of low hanging fruit there to be taken back with a stable starting rotation. I don't know who we expect to put up a 3.2 and how many of these guys we expect to put up sub 4.0s. I could see 5 wins better but 7 is pushing it really hard.

[Lathund]

The Athletic had a piece on some of the new Brewers; Lauer, Smoak and Phelps; https://theathletic.com/1613139/2020/02/17/can-some-of-the-brewers-new-acquisitions-bounce-back-and-be-productive/

 

It talks a bit about how Smoak in 2019 compared to 2018 walked more, struck out less, had a higher exit velocity and hard hit % and still had significantly worse results, and aboutn Phelps and recovery and adjustment after Tommy John Surgery etc. But thought I'd quote some of the stuff about Lauer and his changeup:

 

Lauer started to work at the Brewers’ complex last month after Milwaukee acquired him as part of a four-player trade with the Padres on Nov. 27. During an early bullpen session, he threw a changeup. Before throwing another, information regarding the changeup’s spin and axis were shared with him.

 

“I’ve been working on a changeup for like 10 years,” Lauer said. “All it took was two bullpens here and all of a sudden, it’s something I would consider as possibly a legit weapon for me.”

[....]

“Instead of getting to the inside part of the ball, get to the outside part of the ball and spin it across,” Lauer said he was told. “Instead of trying to get inside of it, try to keep one section on top and spin like a top almost, and it will have the break that you want.

 

“It came out so much more natural and I think it was immediate. The break came. The spin came. It was a lot more consistent, and way easier for me to throw. It all just happened so naturally.”

 

Lauer is cautiously optimistic about the pitch. He knows enough not to oversell it. Not this early, anyway. He is excited about the way it feels, but he hasn’t faced any batters yet. So far in spring training, though, he has thrown the pitch in every bullpen session, trying to refine its placement.

 

So perhaps we'll see a different pitch arsenal from him going forward.

[KeithStone53151]

I think the only rotation lock is woodruff. Everyone else has to compete to win a job. I tend to think Anderson or Houser will be first man out if Burnes or Peralta force their way into the rotation. Nice to see people realizing the rotation upside

[wntrtxn21]

I think the only rotation lock is woodruff. Everyone else has to compete to win a job. I tend to think Anderson or Houser will be first man out if Burnes or Peralta force their way into the rotation. Nice to see people realizing the rotation upside

 

IMO Woodruff and Anderson are locks. Lindblom pitched in the Korean Lg. which is the equivalent of AA baseball. I think he is the most iffy of the bunch. Houser and Lauer also have to prove they are good enough to start. Peralta is the most intriguing of all. He could be the "find" of the year, or back in the pen. Burnes has the most to prove and probably is headed back to AAA to begin the year.

[wntrtxn21]

I think the only rotation lock is woodruff. Everyone else has to compete to win a job. I tend to think Anderson or Houser will be first man out if Burnes or Peralta force their way into the rotation. Nice to see people realizing the rotation upside

 

IMO Woodruff and Anderson are locks. Lindblom pitched in the Korean Lg. which is the equivalent of AA baseball. I think he is the most iffy of the bunch. Houser and Lauer also have to prove they are good enough to start. Peralta is the most intriguing of all. He could be the "find" of the year, or back in the pen. Burnes has the most to prove and probably is headed back to AAA to begin the year.

[BrewBalls]

I think both Peralta and Burnes might end the season in the rotation with the latter considered a TOR compliment to Woodruff. It appears the pitching lab has helped Corbin redefine his approach.

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2020/2/13/21136741/brewers-spring-training-corbin-burnes-pitching-rotation-slider

 

“ Much of the blame was his approach, which focused on a high-spin fastball that should be much better than it actually is. Despite possessing one of the better sliders in the game, Burnes continued to rely on his fastball — and throwing it low in the zone, which is an especially bad place to throw a high-spin fastball, due to how far it can travel. He even seemed defensive at times last season, trying to say he needed to throw the fastball before he could use his much better slider.

 

It appears that’s going to change this year.

 

On top of rumors in the winter that Burnes has been reworking his mechanics, it sounds like he’s been shown the light by the Brewers’ analytics department and the much-hyped “pitching lab.” Talking to reporters today, he says he’s almost completely scrapped his fastball-first approach from last season, and plans to instead base everything around his knockout slider this year.“

 

Considering Burnes had the highest ceiling of out trio of young hurlers I’m optimistic he can get back to his 2018 form. If come September our rotation is Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Anderson and one of Lindblom/Lauer/Houser we should be in contention to win the NL Central and make a deep playoff run.

[BrewBalls]

I think both Peralta and Burnes might end the season in the rotation with the latter considered a TOR compliment to Woodruff. It appears the pitching lab has helped Corbin redefine his approach.

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2020/2/13/21136741/brewers-spring-training-corbin-burnes-pitching-rotation-slider

 

“ Much of the blame was his approach, which focused on a high-spin fastball that should be much better than it actually is. Despite possessing one of the better sliders in the game, Burnes continued to rely on his fastball — and throwing it low in the zone, which is an especially bad place to throw a high-spin fastball, due to how far it can travel. He even seemed defensive at times last season, trying to say he needed to throw the fastball before he could use his much better slider.

 

It appears that’s going to change this year.

 

On top of rumors in the winter that Burnes has been reworking his mechanics, it sounds like he’s been shown the light by the Brewers’ analytics department and the much-hyped “pitching lab.” Talking to reporters today, he says he’s almost completely scrapped his fastball-first approach from last season, and plans to instead base everything around his knockout slider this year.“

 

Considering Burnes had the highest ceiling of out trio of young hurlers I’m optimistic he can get back to his 2018 form. If come September our rotation is Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Anderson and one of Lindblom/Lauer/Houser we should be in contention to win the NL Central and make a deep playoff run.

[RollieTime]

I’m honestly shocked that people don’t think Lauer is a lock for the rotation. He had 3 horrendous starts in Colorado last year where he pitched a total of 8 innings and gave up 17 earned runs.

 

You remove those starts and he pitched 141.2 innings of 3.62 ERA baseball. Also in 17 of those 27 starts, he gave up 2 ER or less. In only 2 of those starts, he gave up 5 ER. He keeps you in the game basically every time he takes the mound.

 

Just for reference, Woodruff gave up 2 ER or fewer in 11 of his 20 starts (not including his 2 2 inning appearances late in the year). He gave up 5 ER or more in only 1 start.

 

I think Woodruff, Lauer, and Anderson are 3 locks for the rotation with the other guys fighting it out for the other two. Houser should also probably be starting since he has multiple pitches even though I really like him out of the bullpen. He just needs to be given the opportunity to start until he proves that he can’t. We need to develop our own starters and forcing a guy that has a 4 pitch mix into the pen when he has been a fine back of the rotation arm to date probably isn’t the best long term idea.