2020 Brewers rotation

[Ennder]

Woodruff Chacin Davies Anderson Burnes Peralta

Woodruff Anderson Houser Lauer Lindblom Peralta

 

I'm not sure how this group is more proven. I'd say the last 2 are as unproven. 1-2 is equally proven and 3-4 is far less proven.

 

To go a step further, MKE at this time in 2019 had Knebel and Jeffress who were pretty proven. Until both imploded for different reason. Having Suter back doesn't offset the lack of Jeffress and the unknowns around Knebel.

 

Lindblom and Lauer are way more proven than Burnes or Peralta were. Woodruff is obviously way more proven in 2020 than he was in 2019. In 2019 you had 3 pretty proven guys and 3 complete unknowns. In 2020 you have 4 pretty proven guys and two somewhat unknowns. Then the next couples names in the list are the same only they have doubled their experience going into to 2020 than what they had in 2019.

[TJseven7]

That's moving the ball sir.

 

Woodruff is more proven than Woodruff was last year but 2020 Woodruff is far less proven than Chacin was entering 2019.

Davies might have been less proven than Anderson but he's also proven to be a lot healthier than Anderson. Anderson has hit 100 ip 2 times since 2010.

Houser entering 2020 is about as proven as Woodruff was in 2019.

There no way that Lauer entering 2020 is more proven than Chase was entering 2019.

Lindblom over Burnes. Sure. However he's started 6 whole games in the MLB. Zero since 2014. KBO isn't MLB. I'm hopeful but nothing about him is proven. He was even given a split deal in case he can't stick as a starter.

Peralta vs Peralta is zero change.

 

That's not more proven. You can't omit Davies and Chase and compare Lindblom and Lauer the two least proven members of the 2019 staff.

 

This staff is volatile as all get out. That's fine if its deep but it's not deep. If you want to count Suter as the 7th fine but then the pen is Hader and the 4As.

 

I've liked the additions but always assumed more options were on the way through FA. The markets drying up and we are finding out more information on interesting names who are dealing with lingering injuries. It really seems like the off season has come awfully close to its conclusion. This pitching staff isn't deep enough to be this group of guys. I could see July call promotions and the trade deadline helping but this early season is going to be awfully murky if anything goes wrong.

 

Usually something goes wrong.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm good with Brett Anderson. What he's proven is to be a total of 6.4BWAR the 3 seasons he has made it to 30starts in a season. 2009, 2015, 2019. Woodruff is clearly proven. Lauer is clearly proven that he can be a SP. Houser/Peralta either or, one can fill starts the other in Bullpen. Lindblom is the complete unknown. What is known is he'll be able to take the ball every 5 days and give you 90-105pitches and should be able to a full season. What the results will be tbd. What you have though is 4 SPs and a platoon sorta to be your 5th that ought to give you a full season's worth of 175IP if pitching well enough to give you 30-33 starts. We didn't have that going in to 2019. There were going to be innings limits before reaching 30 starts.

 

FWIW on Lauer he has 7 starts vs. Colorado 4 at Coors where he should never see the field apparently.

Those 4starts: 11.0IP 30hit 26runs 23ER 18.82ERA 3HRs 10BBs 0IBB 8Ks 73batters faced 3.636Whip! 6.5k/9

The runs allowed in those 4 starts equal 18.2% of his career runs allowed in 7.7% of his career starts.

 

His career ERA would drop to 3.612 when he doesn't pitch at Coors. Instead of 4.4ERA as it is now.

He happens to be 5-0 vs the Dodgers in 7starts with a 2.11ERA. So maybe he has some Dodger kryptonite in him if/when we face them in the playoffs :D

You know, digging in to that has gotta make everyone feel better about Lauer. Brewers only play at Coors for a total of 3 games this season. Counsell should be able to easily schedule him around that 3 game set.

[Ennder]

Lauer has 52 starts over the past 2 years, that is definitely a proven major league starter. Lindblom is trickier but he has thrown 363 IP over the past 2 seasons. We may not get amazing stats out of him but you can be pretty sure he is going to pitch a full season. Not like any of the guys we had last year were sure things either. As far as filling up all of the innings we need to fill this rotation is definitely more proven than last years was for me at least. I was very uncomfortable starting last year with 3 completely unproven rookies in the rotation. I do not feel like that at all this year.

[JohnBriggs12]

Lauer's age and relative health over recent seasons is a plus, and his numbers are reasonably good, but he's a 5 inning pitcher as is Anderson and Houser. Suter can't pitch every day. Somebody else needs to emerge to cover innings 6-8 or Counsll's going to have to stretch them into 6 inning guys. They need someone other than Woodruff who can log 180 innings. I'm sure if they hang in the race into July, a starter will be on their wish list but the long term answer is for guys like Small to move through the levels fast. I think given his collegiate background and maturity that Small might make his debut sometime late in the season and that may be a good thing.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Lauer's age and relative health over recent seasons is a plus, and his numbers are reasonably good, but he's a 5 inning pitcher as is Anderson and Houser. Suter can't pitch every day. Somebody else needs to emerge to cover innings 6-8 or Counsll's going to have to stretch them into 6 inning guys. They need someone other than Woodruff who can log 180 innings. I'm sure if they hang in the race into July, a starter will be on their wish list but the long term answer is for guys like Small to move through the levels fast. I think given his collegiate background and maturity that Small might make his debut sometime late in the season and that may be a good thing.

 

I expect/hope that Small and Ashby both make sizable jumps this year. Both those guys have the stuff and make-up to get through the system quickly. They are going to need Zach Brown and Trey Supak to step up and prove that they can get upper level and big league hitters out as well. The lack of starting pitching depth signings so far would seem to indicate that the front office believes that a few of these guys are poised to take the next step.

[RollieTime]

I'm good with Brett Anderson. What he's proven is to be a total of 6.4BWAR the 3 seasons he has made it to 30starts in a season. 2009, 2015, 2019. Woodruff is clearly proven. Lauer is clearly proven that he can be a SP. Houser/Peralta either or, one can fill starts the other in Bullpen. Lindblom is the complete unknown. What is known is he'll be able to take the ball every 5 days and give you 90-105pitches and should be able to a full season. What the results will be tbd. What you have though is 4 SPs and a platoon sorta to be your 5th that ought to give you a full season's worth of 175IP if pitching well enough to give you 30-33 starts. We didn't have that going in to 2019. There were going to be innings limits before reaching 30 starts.

 

FWIW on Lauer he has 7 starts vs. Colorado 4 at Coors where he should never see the field apparently.

Those 4starts: 11.0IP 30hit 26runs 23ER 18.82ERA 3HRs 10BBs 0IBB 8Ks 73batters faced 3.636Whip! 6.5k/9

The runs allowed in those 4 starts equal 18.2% of his career runs allowed in 7.7% of his career starts.

 

His career ERA would drop to 3.612 when he doesn't pitch at Coors. Instead of 4.4ERA as it is now.

He happens to be 5-0 vs the Dodgers in 7starts with a 2.11ERA. So maybe he has some Dodger kryptonite in him if/when we face them in the playoffs :D

You know, digging in to that has gotta make everyone feel better about Lauer. Brewers only play at Coors for a total of 3 games this season. Counsell should be able to easily schedule him around that 3 game set.

 

Thanks for digging this up. I was pretty high on Lauer before, but I think this helps show just how effective he is and what he could possibly become in the future. And we have him for FIVE seasons! He could realistically make a jump in 2020 like Woodruff did in 2019 and be a very good option to pitch at or near the top of the rotation for a long time.

 

Woodruff

Anderson

Lauer

Lindblom

Houser/Peralta/Burnes/FA

 

This is a solid rotation that could probably finish in the 10-15 range in MLB with the variance mostly depending on how effective Lindblom is transitioning back into the MLB.

 

I see no reason that Woodruff, Anderson, and Lauer couldn’t all have ERA’s around 4 or under. If Houser and Lindblom pitch to a 4.5 ERA, we will win a lot of games. If one of Peralta or Burnes takes off, we will be sitting pretty.

 

I do still hope we add Taijuan Walker as the 5th starter and move Houser and Peralta to the pen with Burnes starting out in AAA. I feel that move alone would strengthen the rotation as well as the bullpen. While adding some much needed depth to the rotation in preparation for underperformance or injuries.

[KeithStone53151]

One thing about this year vs last year, we have a lot more darts to throw at the wall. Last year, when Chacin was meh and Peralta/Burnes were dumpster fires...we didn't have enough real depth to come up and pitch. We had to panic sign GG and fortunately he worked out. We have considerably more options this year...if Woodruff is 2019 Woodruff and half our dart throws meet the higher end of realistic expectations...we'll be just fine.

 

I do not see more darts in 2020 vs 2019. I think 2018 had by far the most darts of the trio and that's the level of darts I'm hoping they find a way to get back to having.

 

The opening rotation is likely to look something like Woodruff, Anderson, Lauer, Lindblom, Houser in some order. Beyond that, we have Peralta, Suter, Burnes, and Supak on the 40 man roster...and Brown/Rasmussen as 10th and 11th starting options if we have a big problem. The first 5 are all relatively safe bets to be mediocre or better(OK Anderson can at best be mediocre)...Burnes/Peralta have the massive upside to potentially steal a starting roll if either is awesome in ST while Suter is a pretty safe bet to be solid if he's needed to start.

 

I think the rotation is in a much better place than many seem to think. And responding to another poster, if 4 of the top 8 options end up failing or getting hurt in the first month or two...we'll be roughly where we were in 2019. Needing the offense to carry us big time. I wouldn't necessarily say the season is over by any stretch.

[Roderick]

Lauer's age and relative health over recent seasons is a plus, and his numbers are reasonably good, but he's a 5 inning pitcher as is Anderson and Houser. Suter can't pitch every day. Somebody else needs to emerge to cover innings 6-8 or Counsll's going to have to stretch them into 6 inning guys. They need someone other than Woodruff who can log 180 innings. I'm sure if they hang in the race into July, a starter will be on their wish list but the long term answer is for guys like Small to move through the levels fast. I think given his collegiate background and maturity that Small might make his debut sometime late in the season and that may be a good thing.

 

I expect/hope that Small and Ashby both make sizable jumps this year. Both those guys have the stuff and make-up to get through the system quickly. They are going to need Zach Brown and Trey Supak to step up and prove that they can get upper level and big league hitters out as well. The lack of starting pitching depth signings so far would seem to indicate that the front office believes that a few of these guys are poised to take the next step.

 

You are talking about two players that haven't even tasted AA yet and Brown who was evidently bad enough in 2019 that the Brewers didn't use a 40 man spot to protect him. Supak was shelled in 6 out of his 7 starts in AAA, so hard to say if he is a possibility. They may be on the list of potential guys, but if they are high on the list, it isn't good for the Brewers.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Lauer's age and relative health over recent seasons is a plus, and his numbers are reasonably good, but he's a 5 inning pitcher as is Anderson and Houser. Suter can't pitch every day. Somebody else needs to emerge to cover innings 6-8 or Counsll's going to have to stretch them into 6 inning guys. They need someone other than Woodruff who can log 180 innings. I'm sure if they hang in the race into July, a starter will be on their wish list but the long term answer is for guys like Small to move through the levels fast. I think given his collegiate background and maturity that Small might make his debut sometime late in the season and that may be a good thing.

 

I expect/hope that Small and Ashby both make sizable jumps this year. Both those guys have the stuff and make-up to get through the system quickly. They are going to need Zach Brown and Trey Supak to step up and prove that they can get upper level and big league hitters out as well. The lack of starting pitching depth signings so far would seem to indicate that the front office believes that a few of these guys are poised to take the next step.

 

You are talking about two players that haven't even tasted AA yet and Brown who was evidently bad enough in 2019 that the Brewers didn't use a 40 man spot to protect him. Supak was shelled in 6 out of his 7 starts in AAA, so hard to say if he is a possibility. They may be on the list of potential guys, but if they are high on the list, it isn't good for the Brewers.

 

The fact that the team hasn't acquired more depth in that area tells me that the team must be high on those guys. I do expect several veteran types signed in the coming month, though. They seemingly need more fallback options available to them.

[brewmann04]

They were also high on The big 3 and only one worked out as far as starter.

[brewcrewdue80]

Roderick in regards to Brown. A team selecting him would have placed him on the 26man. Brown's future value was as a SP. No team was about to insert him in to their Starting Rotation. That leaves a drop in to the bullpen where he has only 3 appearances not as a SP in last 2 seasons. Is a team going to hide him in their bullpen delaying a season of him as Starter. The answer was no. 2nd time through AAA he can grow and earn a promotion [if Needed] in to the rotation. Its an option for the rotation. He's not the opening day #5 or higher starter. Prospects suck from time to time for a year and learn from it get it together and are ML starters a following year. Id have lost a big wager on Grisham making it to Milwaukee's team last season. I didnt think he'd make it as a Brewer and nearly ever.

[monty57]

Ideally, I'd like to see Burnes and Peralta both stretched out in AAA, as I would like to see both of them get a fair shot at starting before making the permanent move to the pen. Burnes just needs to straighten things out in his head. I think he lost confidence after getting shelled (common among rookies), and he should have been sent to AAA earlier. He has at least as much upside as Woodruff if he can put it together. Peralta probably doesn't have as much upside, and his future may be in the pen if he can't get another average/above-average pitch, but I'd like to see him get the shot, as he's young and could be a solid rotation arm for us for years.

 

Unfortunately, I think Peralta (and maybe Burnes) is going to fall into the same situation Hader was in, where the team first says "we're shooting for the playoffs, so even though his future is as a starter, we need him in the pen to get us through the season," which then turns to "we still think he could be an effective starter, but he's too important to us in the pen," which leads to "look how good he is in the pen... he probably wouldn't have been a good starter anyhow."

 

Then a quick peek at trade values and contracts shows that a good starting pitcher is far more valuable than a good reliever, and we all complain about how we can never develop good starting pitching of our own, and it's too expensive to buy in free agency.

[TJseven7]

One thing about this year vs last year, we have a lot more darts to throw at the wall. Last year, when Chacin was meh and Peralta/Burnes were dumpster fires...we didn't have enough real depth to come up and pitch. We had to panic sign GG and fortunately he worked out. We have considerably more options this year...if Woodruff is 2019 Woodruff and half our dart throws meet the higher end of realistic expectations...we'll be just fine.

 

I do not see more darts in 2020 vs 2019. I think 2018 had by far the most darts of the trio and that's the level of darts I'm hoping they find a way to get back to having.

 

The opening rotation is likely to look something like Woodruff, Anderson, Lauer, Lindblom, Houser in some order. Beyond that, we have Peralta, Suter, Burnes, and Supak on the 40 man roster...and Brown/Rasmussen as 10th and 11th starting options if we have a big problem. The first 5 are all relatively safe bets to be mediocre or better(OK Anderson can at best be mediocre)...Burnes/Peralta have the massive upside to potentially steal a starting roll if either is awesome in ST while Suter is a pretty safe bet to be solid if he's needed to start.

 

I think the rotation is in a much better place than many seem to think. And responding to another poster, if 4 of the top 8 options end up failing or getting hurt in the first month or two...we'll be roughly where we were in 2019. Needing the offense to carry us big time. I wouldn't necessarily say the season is over by any stretch.

 

Woodruff

Anderson very injury prone

Lauer

Lindblom completely unknown at the MLB level

Houser likely better as an RP but we'll see, he did well when they threw him into the starters role out of necessity.

 

Peralta 1 of 3 key pieces in the pen

Suter 1 of 3 key pieces in the pen

Burnes was shelled

Supak was shelled at AAA

Brown was shelled at AAA

Rasmussen didn't top 50 pitches last year and threw 75 innings last year

 

You are 1 mistake/injury from having 2 guys in the pen. You are 2 mistakes/injuries from having a pen of Hader and the 4As.

 

Last year they started 3 kids and had Anderson in the pen. This year they are starting 2 unknowns and a big injury risk with have 2 "options" in the pen who they need in the pen because after Hader Peralta and Suter you are looking to CLAUDIO.

 

Throwing kids into the fire and seeing what happens is not what you do when you plan to contend for the playoffs. That same principle almost cost MKE their season last year. Gio Lyles saved it.

 

I hope Woodruff improves off last year. I hope Anderson stays healthy. I hope Lauer is the numbers outside of Colorado. I hope Lindblom is at the very least a 4.0 ERA work horse. I hope Houser takes the next step. They all pitch every single start. But that won't all happen. When it doesn't, we are horribly unprepared in 2020 because to fix it, you have to kill the pen just like last year. 2021 it should be more clear, late in 2020 there might be a bit of help on the way. 2020, this is too thin.

[djoctagone]

craig counsell says that corbin burnes and freddy peralta will be considered starting pitchers at spring camp for preservation of rotation depth.

[OldHeidelberg]

craig counsell says that corbin burnes and freddy peralta will be considered starting pitchers at spring camp for preservation of rotation depth.

 

That's good to hear, especially with Burnes who could really be a big boost to our chances if he gets back to being that guy we expected last season. Didn't he have a couple of good appearances late last year after they sent him to Arizona to correct some stuff?

[TJseven7]

Peralta is the most interesting currently. His winter league numbers are absurd and word has it that he's added a SL and his CB seems improved. 3 pitch Peralta (if the slider is even MLB average) could start.

 

Burnes needs to be seen as a starter. That doesn't mean he flips the switch and regains his form.

[clancyphile]

Ideally, I'd like to see Burnes and Peralta both stretched out in AAA, as I would like to see both of them get a fair shot at starting before making the permanent move to the pen. Burnes just needs to straighten things out in his head. I think he lost confidence after getting shelled (common among rookies), and he should have been sent to AAA earlier. He has at least as much upside as Woodruff if he can put it together. Peralta probably doesn't have as much upside, and his future may be in the pen if he can't get another average/above-average pitch, but I'd like to see him get the shot, as he's young and could be a solid rotation arm for us for years.

 

Unfortunately, I think Peralta (and maybe Burnes) is going to fall into the same situation Hader was in, where the team first says "we're shooting for the playoffs, so even though his future is as a starter, we need him in the pen to get us through the season," which then turns to "we still think he could be an effective starter, but he's too important to us in the pen," which leads to "look how good he is in the pen... he probably wouldn't have been a good starter anyhow."

 

Then a quick peek at trade values and contracts shows that a good starting pitcher is far more valuable than a good reliever, and we all complain about how we can never develop good starting pitching of our own, and it's too expensive to buy in free agency.

 

Didn't MassHass post something about Peralta havign worked on at least a change-up and another pitch (Iforget if it was splitter or slider) earlier this off-season?

 

Then someone made a Happy Gilmore reference involving putting...

[clancyphile]

Peralta is the most interesting currently. His winter league numbers are absurd and word has it that he's added a SL and his CB seems improved. 3 pitch Peralta (if the slider is even MLB average) could start.

 

Burnes needs to be seen as a starter. That doesn't mean he flips the switch and regains his form.

 

I remembered MassHass posting something about that...

[djoctagone]

no surprises here, but brent suter is not being considered for the 2020 starting rotation . . .

[brewcrewdue80]

no surprises here, but brent suter is not being considered for the 2020 starting rotation . . .

 

I am all for this, we have a LH RP not named Hader to call upon with confidence. How long has that been? Claudio certainly didn't bring any. And you know Suter can go multiple innings so he could bat often mid-game appearances. If Kneble returns and his a force, the bullpen is going to be such a strength.

[TJseven7]

Ok so...

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2020/2/13/21136741/brewers-spring-training-corbin-burnes-pitching-rotation-slider

 

Question 1.

Woodruff Anderson Lauer are assumed locks for the rotation. That leaves Lindblom Houser Peralta and Burnes who are all seen as starters. 7. Um, I can see Burnes starting off in AAA but who else is getting bumped? I expected a little clearer picture but the current stance of Houser and Peralta being seen as starters has me puzzled. Especially since they were quick to state Suter is a reliever.

 

Question 2.

Wasn't the ball a big issue for slider pitchers last year. I've read multiple reports that pitchers couldn't get a feel for their slider and that many slider dominant (hello Chacin) pitchers imploded last year. Is pushing Burnes to a more slider dominant mix a good idea? Do we have any knowledge of them fixing the ball after last years mess?

[Austin Tatious]

Peralta is the most interesting currently. His winter league numbers are absurd and word has it that he's added a SL and his CB seems improved. 3 pitch Peralta (if the slider is even MLB average) could start.

 

Burnes needs to be seen as a starter. That doesn't mean he flips the switch and regains his form.

 

I was going to post something similar. I think I saw a post from MaasHass (Jim) and may have heard him on Pauley’s podcast on Peralta as well.

 

Freddy is still young, has arm talent, is competitive and wants to be good. I’m not going to be surprised if he takes a big step forward this year and ends up the number 2 or 3 starter. He could follow Woodruff’s path forward. There’s a lot of upside here and I’m glad Stearns and company have held on to him. He may end up being the type of pitcher we could never get if we didn’t develop him ourselves.

[brewerfan82]

Question 1.

Woodruff Anderson Lauer are assumed locks for the rotation. That leaves Lindblom Houser Peralta and Burnes who are all seen as starters. 7. Um, I can see Burnes starting off in AAA but who else is getting bumped? I expected a little clearer picture but the current stance of Houser and Peralta being seen as starters has me puzzled. Especially since they were quick to state Suter is a reliever.

My impression is we've got a good ole' Spring Training competition for those starter spots. They'll all start off the spring getting stretched out as starters and the brass will decide as the games are played who remains in the rotation, who moves to the bullpen as guys that can go two innings at a time, and who stays stretched out in AAA.

 

To complicate things further, they technically don't need a 5th starter until April 14th. So it may be a competition among those 4 guys (and maybe even a long shot for Shelby Miller) for just that 4th spot initially. Should be fun to follow!

[benji]

Yes but they will also be looking for 1-2 more guys to pitch the 2 middle innings. This will compliment Suter. I could see Lindblom excelling in this role.

 

 

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