2020 Brewers rotation

[KeithStone53151]

Don't know where else to include this, Faria cleared waivers and will remain with the Brewers. I'm happy to see that, I think he has a real shot to be a good pen arm for us.

[BrewBalls]

I would like to see them add Walker to push which will likely push Houser to the pen where I think he is better suited.

[KeithStone53151]

I would like to see them add Walker to push which will likely push Houser to the pen where I think he is better suited.

 

What is your reasoning that Houser is better suited for a pen role vs a rotation role?

[Roderick]

I think the way it will work is the team will break camp with their crew with 2 RPs in mind to shuttle. Well with a 26man, maybe just 1 in mind for shuttling. .....

 

The new 26 man roster will not effect what the Brewers plan to do with the bullpen, as they ran 13 pitchers basically all last year.

 

However, the new 15 days being down will affect shuttling. So I think less planned shuttling will be the hope out of camp. But, really the roster and how many pitchers actually have options to be sent down will dictate more than anything.

[tmwiese55]

I think the way it will work is the team will break camp with their crew with 2 RPs in mind to shuttle. Well with a 26man, maybe just 1 in mind for shuttling. .....

 

The new 26 man roster will not effect what the Brewers plan to do with the bullpen, as they ran 13 pitchers basically all last year.

 

However, the new 15 days being down will affect shuttling. So I think less planned shuttling will be the hope out of camp. But, really the roster and how many pitchers actually have options to be sent down will dictate more than anything.

 

Also the new September rules will definitely affect them though. It's like the rule was put in specifically to hurt MKE.

[JohnBriggs12]

Brett Anderson has been around since 2009, and after a very promising start to his career, since 2013, he's had two serviceable years, in 2015 and 2019. He hasn't logged more than 100 innings in back to back years since 2009-10. He's a huge question mark.

 

Linblom dominated in a league where Eric Thames was Christian Yelich and one of the best hitters in the league the last 3 seasons was somebody named Jamie Romak. I'm sure we all remember Romak's illustrious 36 AB major league career. Lindblom's done nothing of note in the big leagues and it wasn't like he didn't get chances before.

 

Lauer was 5th starter on a last place team. He has not missed starts, but he's been a 5 inning pitcher at best. I'd take Suter over him in my rotation but unfortunately they let most of the bullpen depth go. There's hope of additional upside for Lauer, but it remains hope.

 

Houser will be 27 on opening day and has all of 18 major league starts and reached 5 innings once in his last 6 starts. Anyone else remember Taylor Jungmann who was great for half a season in 2015 and nothing after that.

 

On paper beyond Woodruff, who's close to a true ace, this simply is not the rotation of a contender unless nearly everything falls right. If Woodruff goes down, look out.

[RollieTime]

Even though I don’t expect them to do so, the Brewers don’t need a number 5 starter until the 4th time through the rotation, which would be April 14th against the Phillies. The off days allow the Brewers to only need a 4 man rotation the first 3 weeks or so of the season. Just something to keep in mind as they could actually have 9 bullpen arms and 4 rotation arms to start the season with the 5th starter possibly making a start in AAA before coming up or just being used out of the pen early on.

 

On a totally unrelated note, 14 of our first 22 games are against the Mets and Phillies.

[sveumrules]

On paper beyond Woodruff, who's close to a true ace, this simply is not the rotation of a contender unless nearly everything falls right. If Woodruff goes down, look out.

 

People said the same thing last year, then Chacin, Peralta & Burnes all bombed.

 

Those three plus Jimmy Nelson combined for 34 starts, 154 IP, 119 ER, 6.95 ERA & -4.88 Win Probability Added in the rotation.

 

We still made the playoffs & almost knocked out the eventual WS champs.

 

The only thing I'm willing to proclaim with any degree of certainty at this point is it's too early for any proclamations.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Viable free agent starting pitchers who are still available, and have even a hint of upside, include:

 

Drew Smyly

Taijuan Walker

Danny Salazar

Chad Bettis

J.C. Ramirez

Erasmo Ramirez

Aaron Sanchez

 

There are also a few former starters who have seen an uptick in success after moving to the pen. These include Trevor Cahill, Andrew Cashner and Collin McHugh.

 

Considering the lack of starting pitching depth currently on the MLB roster and in the upper minors, I would expect the Brewers to be in on several of these guys. Provided their health checks out, I'd love to see Salazar, J.C. Ramirez and Aaron Sanchez on minor league deals. I'm not sold on Walker, though. Would also love to see Cashner and McHugh to help round out the pen.

[TJseven7]

I would like to see them add Walker to push which will likely push Houser to the pen where I think he is better suited.

 

What is your reasoning that Houser is better suited for a pen role vs a rotation role?

 

The results have pointed to that all along. He was a 4.57 ERA guy as a starter. A 1.47 guy as a RP. His Minor stats in extended starts haven't been overly impressive either. I hope he improves as a starter but I thought his addition to the pen last year helped MKE a great deal and then the pitching staff struggled a bit when he was removed from the pen and put into the rotation.

 

I think ideally he'd pitch in the pen.

[Lathund]

In April and even May of 2019 people were making the same arguments for how Brandon Woodruff was clearly a reliever, based on his splits up to that point. Maybe Houser is better suited as a reliever, maybe he isn't, but 80 IP as a starter and 40 as a reliever isn't enough to say really. He struggled in those first few starts when he was moved between the rotation and pen and even AAA, but was fine when moved to the rotation full time, even if the starts were kept short. Looking at the splits you can see that as a starter he has a much better K/BB ratio, but also a 70 point higher BABIP. I think it's safe to say he's better than a 4.57 ERA as a starter going forward, and worse than a 1.47 ERA in the 'pen; samples are just too small to take ERA as gospel. With a 5 pitch repertoire, he should be given the chance to see if he can stick as a starter. Or at the very least the Brewers 5-inning starter type.

[brewcrewdue80]

Viable free agent starting pitchers who are still available, and have even a hint of upside, include:

 

Drew Smyly

Taijuan Walker

Danny Salazar

Chad Bettis

J.C. Ramirez

Erasmo Ramirez

Aaron Sanchez

 

There are also a few former starters who have seen an uptick in success after moving to the pen. These include Trevor Cahill, Andrew Cashner and Collin McHugh.

 

Considering the lack of starting pitching depth currently on the MLB roster and in the upper minors, I would expect the Brewers to be in on several of these guys. Provided their health checks out, I'd love to see Salazar, J.C. Ramirez and Aaron Sanchez on minor league deals. I'm not sold on Walker, though. Would also love to see Cashner and McHugh to help round out the pen.

 

Smyly was signed by the Giants 1yr 4mil with up to 2.75mil incentives.

 

On the Houser SP vs RP. It's shown above the ERA goes from #4/5 SP avg to a Shutdown RP. I'm still okay on going with Houser to start the season or at least he's not a problem as a SP when injuries or performances wane. Think I mentioned the Houser to Peralta #5 with the other as RP. Peralta's splits from SP/RP aren't as wide but he gives up less HR as a RP. He's 23 still to start the season. Woodruff's debut was at 24.5 yrs old essentially. I believe Houser has shutdown RP down for his future in the bullpen. It's where he goes as a SP. Zach Davies is off a 2.5BWar season of 159.2IP at 3.55 ERA(higher Fip) Josh Hader the beast of the RP provided 2.6BWar with his season. So I think there is your barometer. Can Houser or Peralta be a 2.5WAR or better SP or will you be better off getting close to 2WAR from then in the bullpen? Nationals out of their Rotation got 3.3BWar from their #4 starter a 35yr old Anibel Sanchez of which was more than his previous 4 seasons combined in value. (Our Brett Anderson in 2020?)

 

I dunno I am on the Taijuan Walker signing train. I think that would provide a lot of insurance for some period of the 2020 season. Peralta and Houser aren't exactly full season IP certainties. Peralta 141 in 2018. Houser 132.2IP last season. So you gotta plan some kind of timeshare to limit the IP ceilings both would hit. One months worth of stints as RP ought to clear most of that up.

Walker has to be looking for a good 1yr prove it deal with a good 2yr option to not be signed at this point. But I'll leave that for Rumors and just say the rotation is workable for me with that maybe 1 last #3-5 fillin for at least half a season's of games.

[JosephC]

Viable free agent starting pitchers who are still available, and have even a hint of upside, include:

 

Drew Smyly

Taijuan Walker

Danny Salazar

Chad Bettis

J.C. Ramirez

Erasmo Ramirez

Aaron Sanchez

 

There are also a few former starters who have seen an uptick in success after moving to the pen. These include Trevor Cahill, Andrew Cashner and Collin McHugh.

 

Considering the lack of starting pitching depth currently on the MLB roster and in the upper minors, I would expect the Brewers to be in on several of these guys. Provided their health checks out, I'd love to see Salazar, J.C. Ramirez and Aaron Sanchez on minor league deals. I'm not sold on Walker, though. Would also love to see Cashner and McHugh to help round out the pen.

 

Aaron Sanchez will, at best, probably miss the first four/five months of next season...but more than likely will probably miss all of 2020.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/astros-aaron-sanchez-could-miss-all-of-2020/

[Ennder]

ERA is a completely worthless stat in those small sample sizes, the ERA difference means nothing at all about Houser. I don't have the time to look at the splits but at least try to look at something that has some sort of meaning in a small sample, ERA is just about the worst thing you could use.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Viable free agent starting pitchers who are still available, and have even a hint of upside, include:

 

Drew Smyly

Taijuan Walker

Danny Salazar

Chad Bettis

J.C. Ramirez

Erasmo Ramirez

Aaron Sanchez

 

There are also a few former starters who have seen an uptick in success after moving to the pen. These include Trevor Cahill, Andrew Cashner and Collin McHugh.

 

Considering the lack of starting pitching depth currently on the MLB roster and in the upper minors, I would expect the Brewers to be in on several of these guys. Provided their health checks out, I'd love to see Salazar, J.C. Ramirez and Aaron Sanchez on minor league deals. I'm not sold on Walker, though. Would also love to see Cashner and McHugh to help round out the pen.

 

Aaron Sanchez will, at best, probably miss the first four/five months of next season...but more than likely will probably miss all of 2020.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/astros-aaron-sanchez-could-miss-all-of-2020/

 

I see that ... his comeback from that shoulder issue seems to be getting pushed back further and further. At this point, he'd be a speculative add for 2021, and anything you get in 2020 is gravy. He's probably got the best arm and upside of anyone on that list, though. I view Walker as a flamed out uber-prospect who has one ok season to his name.

[brewcrewdue80]

ERA is a completely worthless stat in those small sample sizes, the ERA difference means nothing at all about Houser. I don't have the time to look at the splits but at least try to look at something that has some sort of meaning in a small sample, ERA is just about the worst thing you could use.

 

I'd use fip but BRef doesnt show in the split. Less hits per 9, HR per 9, Whip, slightly higher k per 9. Its pretty obvious he does better as a RP, ERA or not.

Im sorry you have the time to make the same RP argument you always do on variance or "small sample" but you need to do some of the stat leg work to back up your comments some of these times. Youre vanilla with a set in stone attitude on RP/ERA and small samples. There are virtually dozens in the last decade who were terrible or averagish SP and lights out RP for multiple seasons consecutively. Non impact vs huge impact to their teams.

[sveumrules]

Just about every pitcher would be better as a reliever. It's just easier to go through an order once at max effort than a couple two tree times with increasing familiarity to the batters & fatigue as you go along.

 

What the question really boils down to is, given our other options is Houser more valuable to the 2020 Brewers as say 150 IP of 100 ERA+ (league average starter) or 75 IP of 150 ERA+ (top end reliever)?

 

Obviously it's not that simple & there are myriad factors at play, but FanGraphs had a pretty interesting article going over the various SP/RP scenarios using Carlos Martinez as an example that seems pretty applicable to Houser's potential usage situation(s)...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/carlos-martinez-epitomizes-contextual-value-and-other-business-school-buzzwords/

[TJseven7]

Well since MKE only has 6 options to start

Woodruff Anderson Lauer Lindblom Houser and Peralta (if the CB SL winter league stuff carries forward)

 

In that circumstance Houser has to start. If he's a 4.5 guy, then that's not ideal but that's the lack of depth MKE is dealing with in the pitching department. I'm hopeful the farm can contribute guys to make that less of an issue in 2021-2023 and beyond but right now it doesn't seem there is a real choice.

 

This is why I've pushed the idea of adding more SP options, or at the very least, making a number of additions to the pen. Both starters and pen get real thin if a starter or two don't work out, or get hurt. You pull Houser Peralta into the rotation and the pen is basically Suter Hader and stuff.

 

At this point, I'm hopeful MKE makes a trade for a starter. Nothing ACE level but a controlled 100 ERA+ guy would make for a lot more breathing room. I don't fault the Anderson for Anderson swap. I don't fault the Davies for Lauer swap. That was a move to trade and replace cheaper or to add control. Those are fine. However, Anderson and Lindblom is only a nice start to the pitching additions. Having another Chase or Davies would help a great deal. Team simply needs more depth to get through 2020 until (hopefully) more reinforcements come out of the farm.

 

A lot of guys have been very preoccupied about the piecey part additions to the offense. I think the pitching staff is the area that is most troubling. Not because they haven't done well, but because they haven't added more bodies.

[KeithStone53151]

I would like to see them add Walker to push which will likely push Houser to the pen where I think he is better suited.

 

What is your reasoning that Houser is better suited for a pen role vs a rotation role?

 

The results have pointed to that all along. He was a 4.57 ERA guy as a starter. A 1.47 guy as a RP. His Minor stats in extended starts haven't been overly impressive either. I hope he improves as a starter but I thought his addition to the pen last year helped MKE a great deal and then the pitching staff struggled a bit when he was removed from the pen and put into the rotation.

 

I think ideally he'd pitch in the pen.

 

The numbers are generally suspect as they are small sample. I would argue he's slightly better than a 4.57 ERA guy as a starter, and considerably worse than a 1.47 guy as a reliever. Also, 9 out of 10 starters would fare better in relief...so you can't specifically look at that either. I also would add he came into the season as a reliever and got stretched out during the season to start. He would probably fare better if he was preparing to start from day 1 of ST.

 

And I'll play you're game, in an ideal world...Burnes and Peralta do what they should have done last year, and a fairly effective Houser gets pushed to the bullpen because those guys are simply better.

 

One thing about this year vs last year, we have a lot more darts to throw at the wall. Last year, when Chacin was meh and Peralta/Burnes were dumpster fires...we didn't have enough real depth to come up and pitch. We had to panic sign GG and fortunately he worked out. We have considerably more options this year...if Woodruff is 2019 Woodruff and half our dart throws meet the higher end of realistic expectations...we'll be just fine.

[TURBO]

if Woodruff is 2019 Woodruff and half our dart throws meet the higher end of realistic expectations...we'll be just fine.

 

If not, we are screwed... Unless a couple of big moves are still coming, however, I don't see that happening.

[Ennder]

I'd use fip but BRef doesnt show in the split. Less hits per 9, HR per 9, Whip, slightly higher k per 9. Its pretty obvious he does better as a RP, ERA or not.

Im sorry you have the time to make the same RP argument you always do on variance or "small sample" but you need to do some of the stat leg work to back up your comments some of these times. Youre vanilla with a set in stone attitude on RP/ERA and small samples. There are virtually dozens in the last decade who were terrible or averagish SP and lights out RP for multiple seasons consecutively. Non impact vs huge impact to their teams.

 

Search when does ERA become meaningful on the internet and you'll find tons of studies. It takes roughly 500 IP for ERA to actually mean something, it never reaches it in a single year much less a 40 IP sample. It also never truly becomes meaningful because after 500 IP you aren't the same pitcher you used to be. It is not a stat that tells how good a pitcher is.

 

To give you a super easy example of using 40 IP. You take two pitchers who both are exactly as skilled as each other, each throws 39 1/3 innings with 15 ER. They both load the bases with 2 outs and are removed from the game. Pitcher A's RP gives up a grand slam HR, pitcher B's RP strikes the guy out.

 

For the season Pitcher A has an ERA of 4.05 ERA, pitcher B has a 3.38. Without either of them actually doing anything at all differently one of them ends the season with an ERA 0.66 higher than the other. You may say that is an extreme case but stranded runners like this makes a huge difference for pitchers every year as does BABIP, variance in personal LOB, when they happen to give up HR, quality of opponent faced etc.

 

Looking at Houser more closely what you see is once he breaks 50 pitches he starts to give up a ton of HR's and that seems to be the biggest issue. I don't know if that is something fixable, just a small sample, a problem with his pitch mix etc. The samples are probably too small to judge that from stats, it is more of a scouting thing. It probably comes down to whether or not he can develop a 3rd pitch that is a positive. Right now he is fastball/sinker and everything else was negative in value. Those samples are really small to try to judge with as well.

[TJseven7]

One thing about this year vs last year, we have a lot more darts to throw at the wall. Last year, when Chacin was meh and Peralta/Burnes were dumpster fires...we didn't have enough real depth to come up and pitch. We had to panic sign GG and fortunately he worked out. We have considerably more options this year...if Woodruff is 2019 Woodruff and half our dart throws meet the higher end of realistic expectations...we'll be just fine.

 

I do not see more darts in 2020 vs 2019. I think 2018 had by far the most darts of the trio and that's the level of darts I'm hoping they find a way to get back to having.

[Ennder]

I am a lot more confident in the guys going into 2020 than I was in 2019. 2019 was completely unproven guys who were always going to be on pretty strict innings limits. Maybe there isn't as much upside but I feel more confident in the floors. I would still love to see one more starter signed.

[TJseven7]

Davies Chacin Woodruff Anderson Burnes Peralta

Woodruff Anderson Houser Lindblom Lauer Peralta

 

I'm not sure how this group is more proven.

 

To go a step further, MKE at this time in 2019 had Knebel and Jeffress who were pretty proven. Until both imploded for different reason. Having Suter back doesn't offset the lack of Jeffress and the unknowns around Knebel.

[brewmann04]

pitching and 3rd base is what i consider my major issues heading into 2020