2020 Brewers rotation

[RollieTime]

As it sits today:

 

Woodruff

Anderson

Houser

Lauer

Lindblom

 

I think we will still be looking to bring in another arm to slot into the bullpen that has prior starting experience at the least. I do think we could be looking at our rotation heading into the season right here though. I would say Woodruff, Anderson, and Lauer are locks for the rotation.

 

Houser showed well as a reliever early in the year and showed some positive signs in short starts late in the year. I do think if anyone is removed from the rotation because of another rotation arm added to the roster, it’ll be Houser. Lindblom I think was brought in to be a starter and will be given a shot in the rotation before being moved to the bullpen if he is ineffective.

 

As it sits, those are the 5 as of now that are in the rotation with Houser being the first to be removed if another arm is added. He was great out of the pen last season and may be better suited there long term. But I think he will be given a chance early in the year to keep his spot, similar to Burnes and Peralta in 2019.

[SRB]

This is an extremely crude number, but just because I was curious I looked up the fWAR/32GS rate for our current SP options over the last three seasons (2017-2019). I would have used rWAR because it is more favorable to us but couldn't figure out how to split out RP/SP WAR

 

Woodruff - 3.6 fWAR

Lindblom - n/a

B. Anderson - 1.9 fWAR

Lauer - 1.8 fWAR

Houser - 2.0 fWAR

 

Peralta - 2.0 fWAR

Suter - 2.4 fWAR

Faria - 1.5 fWAR

 

If we assume that Lindblom will also be in the 2.0 fWAR range (if he pitched an entire season for this hypothetical), then purely based on past performance that would give our starting rotation a total fWAR slightly above 11.3 fWAR (32 GS x 5 + 2 GS unaccounted for).

 

11.4 fWAR for the starting rotation would have placed the Brewers at 12th in MLB last season, right ahead of the Braves. Meanwhile I think all of our current pitching options have a certain amount of upside, and our overall pitching staff is bolstered by having a bullpen that could be top-5 in MLB given the return of Knebel.

 

And that's not to mention that I remain a True Believer that the ace of the rotation by the end of 2020 is going to be Corbin Burnes.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

This is an extremely crude number, but just because I was curious I looked up the fWAR/32GS rate for our current SP options over the last three seasons (2017-2019). I would have used rWAR because it is more favorable to us but couldn't figure out how to split out RP/SP WAR

 

Woodruff - 3.6 fWAR

Lindblom - n/a

B. Anderson - 1.9 fWAR

Lauer - 1.8 fWAR

Houser - 2.0 fWAR

 

Peralta - 2.0 fWAR

Suter - 2.4 fWAR

Faria - 1.5 fWAR

 

If we assume that Lindblom will also be in the 2.0 fWAR range (if he pitched an entire season for this hypothetical), then purely based on past performance that would give our starting rotation a total fWAR slightly above 11.3 fWAR (32 GS x 5 + 2 GS unaccounted for).

 

11.4 fWAR for the starting rotation would have placed the Brewers at 12th in MLB last season, right ahead of the Braves. Meanwhile I think all of our current pitching options have a certain amount of upside, and our overall pitching staff is bolstered by having a bullpen that could be top-5 in MLB given the return of Knebel.

 

And that's not to mention that I remain a True Believer that the ace of the rotation by the end of 2020 is going to be Corbin Burnes.

 

Appreciate you diving into some of these numbers!

 

I’m with you on the Burnes bandwagon. Some of my friends think I’m nuts (maybe I am) but I still see All Star production coming from him.

[wntrtxn21]

This is an extremely crude number, but just because I was curious I looked up the fWAR/32GS rate for our current SP options over the last three seasons (2017-2019). I would have used rWAR because it is more favorable to us but couldn't figure out how to split out RP/SP WAR

 

Woodruff - 3.6 fWAR

Lindblom - n/a

B. Anderson - 1.9 fWAR

Lauer - 1.8 fWAR

Houser - 2.0 fWAR

 

Peralta - 2.0 fWAR

Suter - 2.4 fWAR

Faria - 1.5 fWAR

 

If we assume that Lindblom will also be in the 2.0 fWAR range (if he pitched an entire season for this hypothetical), then purely based on past performance that would give our starting rotation a total fWAR slightly above 11.3 fWAR (32 GS x 5 + 2 GS unaccounted for).

 

11.4 fWAR for the starting rotation would have placed the Brewers at 12th in MLB last season, right ahead of the Braves. Meanwhile I think all of our current pitching options have a certain amount of upside, and our overall pitching staff is bolstered by having a bullpen that could be top-5 in MLB given the return of Knebel.

 

And that's not to mention that I remain a True Believer that the ace of the rotation by the end of 2020 is going to be Corbin Burnes.

 

There is something severely wrong with fWAR if a staff of Lindblom-Houser-Lauer-Anderson-Woodruff would be anywhere near average for MLB, much less in the top 12. You have to know if Faria (6.75 FIP - 5 HRs in 18 IPs - 2.13 WHIP) is anything but a negative, fWAR is badly flawed.

[recte44]

I love it. We should be stacking lefties in our rotation and the moves of late show the Brewers are thinking that way also. Lauer via trade, Anderson as a free agent, Small and Kelly in the draft.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[RollieTime]

This is an extremely crude number, but just because I was curious I looked up the fWAR/32GS rate for our current SP options over the last three seasons (2017-2019). I would have used rWAR because it is more favorable to us but couldn't figure out how to split out RP/SP WAR

 

Woodruff - 3.6 fWAR

Lindblom - n/a

B. Anderson - 1.9 fWAR

Lauer - 1.8 fWAR

Houser - 2.0 fWAR

 

Peralta - 2.0 fWAR

Suter - 2.4 fWAR

Faria - 1.5 fWAR

 

If we assume that Lindblom will also be in the 2.0 fWAR range (if he pitched an entire season for this hypothetical), then purely based on past performance that would give our starting rotation a total fWAR slightly above 11.3 fWAR (32 GS x 5 + 2 GS unaccounted for).

 

11.4 fWAR for the starting rotation would have placed the Brewers at 12th in MLB last season, right ahead of the Braves. Meanwhile I think all of our current pitching options have a certain amount of upside, and our overall pitching staff is bolstered by having a bullpen that could be top-5 in MLB given the return of Knebel.

 

And that's not to mention that I remain a True Believer that the ace of the rotation by the end of 2020 is going to be Corbin Burnes.

 

Thanks for this! I do think our rotation would be fine with what we have, but hope we add a difference making arm (possibly through a trade) to put at the top of the rotation next to Woodruff. I do also hope that we move Houser to the pen. I really liked how he pitched coming out of the pen and think that he could have that Pomeranz like role where he pitches a couple innings at a time late in the game on games Hader can’t go.

 

If he remains in the rotation, it’s not a big deal as having a backend rotation arm for cheap is very valuable. I just don’t personally think we will see the best out of him in that role. Here’s hoping to Burnes lighting the world on fire in Spring Training, earning that rotation spot, and kicking Houser into the bullpen!

[SRB]

There is something severely wrong with fWAR if a staff of Lindblom-Houser-Lauer-Anderson-Woodruff would be anywhere near average for MLB, much less in the top 12. You have to know if Faria (6.75 FIP - 5 HRs in 18 IPs - 2.13 WHIP) is anything but a negative, fWAR is badly flawed.

 

Can you just admit that you know absolutely nothing about Lindblom, who has not even pitched in the States in several years?

 

Basically all of our options besides Woodruff have at a minimum been right around league average pitchers if you actually look at their numbers and have any familiarity with MLB.

 

Also, as a starting pitcher from 2017-2019, Faria has 135.0 IP, 4.27 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 4.63 FIP pitching in the AL East.

[phnxcrew]

This is an extremely crude number, but just because I was curious I looked up the fWAR/32GS rate for our current SP options over the last three seasons (2017-2019). I would have used rWAR because it is more favorable to us but couldn't figure out how to split out RP/SP WAR

 

Woodruff - 3.6 fWAR

Lindblom - n/a

B. Anderson - 1.9 fWAR

Lauer - 1.8 fWAR

Houser - 2.0 fWAR

 

Peralta - 2.0 fWAR

Suter - 2.4 fWAR

Faria - 1.5 fWAR

 

If we assume that Lindblom will also be in the 2.0 fWAR range (if he pitched an entire season for this hypothetical), then purely based on past performance that would give our starting rotation a total fWAR slightly above 11.3 fWAR (32 GS x 5 + 2 GS unaccounted for).

 

11.4 fWAR for the starting rotation would have placed the Brewers at 12th in MLB last season, right ahead of the Braves. Meanwhile I think all of our current pitching options have a certain amount of upside, and our overall pitching staff is bolstered by having a bullpen that could be top-5 in MLB given the return of Knebel.

 

And that's not to mention that I remain a True Believer that the ace of the rotation by the end of 2020 is going to be Corbin Burnes.

 

Appreciate you diving into some of these numbers!

 

I’m with you on the Burnes bandwagon. Some of my friends think I’m nuts (maybe I am) but I still see All Star production coming from him.

 

Agreed on Burnes. I would definitely putting Houser in the bullpen to strengthen it given his past success there and putting Burnes in the rotation for another try. We need good right handed relievers-especially not knowing where Knebel is with recovery. I'm sure Burnes, being the intense type has worked his butt off this offseason and is itching to show he isn't the meltdown we saw last year. Now more than ever we see we can't give up on guys like him...

[BrewBalls]

If the fans like it or not, Corbin Burnes is still the best chance of adding a TOR starter in 2020. We don’t have the payroll to sign one via free agency and lack the prospects necessary to trade for one mid season. He showed in 2018 that his stuff can be downright filthy and miss plenty of bats as long as he can get his head straight. Woodruff and Burnes would make a formidable two headed monster to go along with the remainder of our option. I would be happy signing one more starter for insurance. I like both Rich Hill and Aaron Sanchez (if our medical staff complies) since both would start the season on the IR which gives Burnes time to prove himself.

 

Best case, Burnes is dominant and Hill/Sanchez bumps Lauer/Houser to the pen or back to the minors. Worst case, Burnes struggles and we need to use a in house stopgap until Hill/Sanchez is ready.

[brewmann04]

I an hoping that either Burnes or Peralta can really step up and take a spot in the rotation as both have the potential to be top starters this team needs.

[TJseven7]

If the fans like it or not, Corbin Burnes is still the best chance of adding a TOR starter in 2020. We don’t have the payroll to sign one via free agency and lack the prospects necessary to trade for one mid season. He showed in 2018 that his stuff can be downright filthy and miss plenty of bats as long as he can get his head straight. Woodruff and Burnes would make a formidable two headed monster to go along with the remainder of our option. I would be happy signing one more starter for insurance. I like both Rich Hill and Aaron Sanchez (if our medical staff complies) since both would start the season on the IR which gives Burnes time to prove himself.

 

Best case, Burnes is dominant and Hill/Sanchez bumps Lauer/Houser to the pen or back to the minors. Worst case, Burnes struggles and we need to use a in house stopgap until Hill/Sanchez is ready.

 

I don't disagree. At the same time I don't want Burnes starting anywhere but AAA to start this year. I want to see him dominating at that level before I plug him back in the starting rotation. For a number of reasons. I think Lindblom Houser and Lauer all get first crack over him in 2020.

[BrewBalls]

If the fans like it or not, Corbin Burnes is still the best chance of adding a TOR starter in 2020. We don’t have the payroll to sign one via free agency and lack the prospects necessary to trade for one mid season. He showed in 2018 that his stuff can be downright filthy and miss plenty of bats as long as he can get his head straight. Woodruff and Burnes would make a formidable two headed monster to go along with the remainder of our option. I would be happy signing one more starter for insurance. I like both Rich Hill and Aaron Sanchez (if our medical staff complies) since both would start the season on the IR which gives Burnes time to prove himself.

 

Best case, Burnes is dominant and Hill/Sanchez bumps Lauer/Houser to the pen or back to the minors. Worst case, Burnes struggles and we need to use a in house stopgap until Hill/Sanchez is ready.

 

I don't disagree. At the same time I don't want Burnes starting anywhere but AAA to start this year. I want to see him dominating at that level before I plug him back in the starting rotation. For a number of reasons. I think Lindblom Houser and Lauer all get first crack over him in 2020.

I can get onboard with this philosophy. This means Stearns needs to add one more reliable starter to fill out the rotation preferably a proven veteran like Keuchel or Gonzalez. This way if Burnes doesn’t bounce back we aren’t caught scrabbling to begin the season like last year when the wheels fell off unexpectedly like they did.

[brewmann04]

I would feel much better if they added a guy like dallas to the rotation.

[dacrew101]

I’m not comfortable

[et bbal]

I would feel much better if they added a guy like dallas to the rotation.

 

I would argue that they did get someone like Dallas when they signed Brett Anderson. Both left handed, both are 31. Looking at last year, era is similar (Kuechel slightly lower), whip is similar (Anderson is slightly lower). For those who look at won loss record (I generally don't) Anderson had a 59% w/l record (13-9), Kuechel 50% (8-8). Are you saying you would like a second pitcher like Anderson. Not that I don't want Kuechel, but it isn't like he is an ace.

[BrewBalls]

I would feel much better if they added a guy like dallas to the rotation.

 

I would argue that they did get someone like Dallas when they signed Brett Anderson. Both left handed, both are 31. Looking at last year, era is similar (Kuechel slightly lower), whip is similar (Anderson is slightly lower). For those who look at won loss record (I generally don't) Anderson had a 59% w/l record (13-9), Kuechel 50% (8-8). Are you saying you would like a second pitcher like Anderson. Not that I don't want Kuechel, but it isn't like he is an ace.

I personally wouldn’t mind having a second ground-ball starting pitcher in the rotation. I believe limiting the long balls while playing in a hitter‘s park will help them win more games next season.

[Brewcrewin07]

I would feel much better if they added a guy like dallas to the rotation.

 

I would argue that they did get someone like Dallas when they signed Brett Anderson. Both left handed, both are 31. Looking at last year, era is similar (Kuechel slightly lower), whip is similar (Anderson is slightly lower). For those who look at won loss record (I generally don't) Anderson had a 59% w/l record (13-9), Kuechel 50% (8-8). Are you saying you would like a second pitcher like Anderson. Not that I don't want Kuechel, but it isn't like he is an ace.

I personally wouldn’t mind having a second ground-ball starting pitcher in the rotation. I believe limiting the long balls while playing in a hitter‘s park will help them win more games next season.

 

My ideal rotation would be at least 2-3 of them with very good to elite K rates, then the other two can be fillers/ground ball pitchers. I have no data to back this up, but it sure seems to me, the best rotations have at least two elite strikeout pitchers. There is nothing more important IMO then missing bats when it comes to pitchers.

 

Obviously that doesn't mean other types of Pitchers can't/won't be successful, plenty of them have been. But to me, you give yourself a greater chance of being successful the more high K rate pitchers you have.

[TJseven7]

Woodruff Anderson are in the rotation... 2

Lindblom Houser are in the rotation but are possibly best suited for the pen... 4

Lauer you would assume will start in the rotation but he has options... 5

Suter Peralta are emergency options in the rotation and are best suited for the pen... 7

Burnes is absolutely on the radar but should start in AAA. 8

 

I believe we still need 2 more. Nothing flashy but 2 more. A guy like Taijan Walker if he is willing to pitch out of the pen if he doesn't earn a starting rotation spot out of ST. Other options like Gio Hill would fit well. There is a ton of flexibility in this staff right now. They need 1 more guy who is absolutely in the rotation and 1 more guy who could earn a spot in the rotation.

 

It's not meant for the rotation but I also want Collin McHugh pretty bad. I see him as a RP/CL but he could be another guy next to Suter and Peralta.

[BrewBalls]

 

My ideal rotation would be at least 2-3 of them with very good to elite K rates, then the other two can be fillers/ground ball pitchers. I have no data to back this up, but it sure seems to me, the best rotations have at least two elite strikeout pitchers. There is nothing more important IMO then missing bats when it comes to pitchers.

 

Obviously that doesn't mean other types of Pitchers can't/won't be successful, plenty of them have been. But to me, you give yourself a greater chance of being successful the more high K rate pitchers you have.

Any GM would love this too because pitchers who has high K rates AND GB% are considered TOR or ace caliber pitchers.

 

My point was if I had to choose one area a starting pitcher was considered elite it would be weak contact/GB% over their ability to miss bats. Especially when playing at Miller Park.

[SRB]

Some footage here of Fastball Freddy throwing a slider and change up.

 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mining-the-news-12-16-19/

 

[long ball]

Woodruff Anderson are in the rotation... 2

Lindblom Houser are in the rotation but are possibly best suited for the pen... 4

Lauer you would assume will start in the rotation but he has options... 5

Suter Peralta are emergency options in the rotation and are best suited for the pen... 7

Burnes is absolutely on the radar but should start in AAA. 8

 

I believe we still need 2 more. Nothing flashy but 2 more. A guy like Taijan Walker if he is willing to pitch out of the pen if he doesn't earn a starting rotation spot out of ST. Other options like Gio Hill would fit well. There is a ton of flexibility in this staff right now. They need 1 more guy who is absolutely in the rotation and 1 more guy who could earn a spot in the rotation.

 

It's not meant for the rotation but I also want Collin McHugh pretty bad. I see him as a RP/CL but he could be another guy next to Suter and Peralta.

 

I had mentioned Colin McHugh as a potential free agent target in a thread a while back and I had actually forgotten about him. He had two IL stints with elbow issues last year. He ended the season on the IL and his throwing program was shut down in September with continued pain.

 

If he is healthy I still would love him as a pick up. He would probably slot into the bullpen like you suggested, but could provide some rotation depth as well. He did struggle as a starter last year, but was downright dominant as a reliever. 33.2 IP and a 2.67 era (3.42 fip).

 

If he's healthy, he could actually pretty much wrap up the Brewers offseason pitching acquisitions.

[clancyphile]

Some footage here of Fastball Freddy throwing a slider and change up.

 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mining-the-news-12-16-19/

 

 

Interesting...

 

Very interesting...

[TJseven7]

If he is healthy I still would love him as a pick up. He would probably slot into the bullpen like you suggested, but could provide some rotation depth as well. He did struggle as a starter last year, but was downright dominant as a reliever. 33.2 IP and a 2.67 era (3.42 fip).

 

It's not just last year. He's career 2.76 as a reliever. 114 IP 11 K/9

[wibadgers23]

So as of today, my starting rotation would be:

1. Woodruff

2. Peralta/Houser (I think these guys will battle it out in spring training and one or the other will go to the bullpen)

3. Lauer

4. Lindblom

5. Anderson

[KeithStone53151]

I'm not 100% sure that Lauer will be guaranteed a rotation spot either. I think Woodruff and Anderson are the only 2 guys locked in. Lindblom probably gets a rotation spot. The other 2 will more or less compete with Peralta, Burnes, Suter, etc for the final 2 spots. I would assume Lauer and Houser have the inside track on rotation spots, but the other guys will have a chance to earn those spots with a big spring. Especially Burnes.