2020 Brewers rotation

[brewmann04]

actually people here do realize that CC went with got them to this point in the first place with Josh going 2 innings

[brewmann04]

They are going to have some of the starters go longer than 4-5 innings because CC wont have that extend Roster come Next Sept.

 

they did regularly before September.

 

The short term memory here is amazing. I haven't spent a ton of time, but let me guess...everyone is saying that Hader sucks right? He had one critical bad outing which completely negates his 2.62 ERA and 0.806 WHIP.

 

 

It is funny that the Brewers big September push started when the rosters did expand and CC had more arms to play with.

[bjkrautk]

actually people here do realize that CC went with got them to this point in the first place with Josh going 2 innings

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/32760/josh-hader

 

Hader pitched 2 (or more) innings in 14 of his 61 appearances this year. 10 of the 14 came before the all-star break, and Josh only pitched two full innings twice after the trade deadline. It mostly worked, as Hader had 2 wins, 9 saves and a hold against 2 blown saves.

 

I can understand Counsell's rationale for having Hader pitch multiple innings in the Wild Card game, but it wasn't the formula for most of their wins.

[Jopal78]

David Stearns knows he has to develop starting pitching from within to have any chance of competing year in/year out. Thus I'd speculate the 2020 rotation lines up like this:

 

Woodruff

Davies

Houser

Anderson

with Nelson, Burnes, Peralta, Faria, Suter competing for the 5 spot.

 

A different realistic option would include resigning Lyles, trading or even declining the option on Anderson:

 

Woodruff

Lyles

Davies

Houser

Nelson, Burnes Peralta, Faria, Suter

 

A third possibility would be signing a secondary market starting pitcher to a short term free agent contract:

 

Woodruff

Hamels/Kyle Gibson/Roark/Miley/etc

Davies

Houser

Anderson

 

with Nelson, Suter in the pen, Burnes and Peralta starting in the minors and Faria (0 options remaining) out of the organization.

 

The Brewers certainly aren't going to throw a multi-year 25mil+/per annum contract to a starting pitcher. Odorizzi is likely to cash in on a career year as the 2nd place trophy for the teams who miss out on Cole (and Strasburg, assuming he opts out).

[LouisEly]

Woodruff

Davies

Houser

Lyles

Gonzalez/Nelson

 

Using FIP as the measuring stick, the odd man out is Anderson. His salary gets allocated toward Lyles/Gonzalez. Gonzalez actually pitched better in innings 4-6 than 1-3, and the 2nd/3rd time facing a batter than the 1st; his struggles were in the 1st/2nd inning.

 

As for Houser, digging behind the numbers a bit:

 

1st half: 19 G, 5 starts, 42.2 IP, 2.4 K/BB, .796 OPS-A, .346 BABIP, 1.453 WHIP

2nd half: 16 G, 13 starts, 68.2 IP, 3.89 K/BB, .656 OPS-A, .279 BABIP, 1.107 WHIP

 

The numbers suggest that he was better in the 2nd half primarily as a starter - and better when he had a defined role as a starter - than he was primarily as a reliever in the 1st half (and bouncing back and forth between the pen and starting). Only 5 IP as a reliever in the 2nd half (with 2 ER, 1 HR given up), so the vast majority of the 2nd half numbers above were as a starter.

 

Given that Houser is pre-arby, I think they have to roll with him so that they can invest their resources in bringing back Moose/Grandal and/or upgrading SS.

[CheezWizHed]

Woodruff of course

 

Davies - consistently decent.

Houser - earned it

Lyles - earned it (assuming he will resign at a decent $$)

 

Gonzo - why not?? Sign him for depth and use him in the BP. He seems to like it here too.

Anderson - like Gonzo, depth/BP

 

Burnes - world-beater pre-2019; 2019: excellent-AAA/Dumpster fire-MLB. A lot of people will be digging into what happened, but he will be in consideration for 2020.

Nelson - one more chance.

 

One very good starter, 3 decent options, two BP/depth options and two boom/busts picks. That isn't horrible depth. If Burnes/Nelson bounce back to former glory, Woodruff, Nelson, Burnes, Lyles, and Houser is a really nice rotation.

 

But I wouldn't bank on that happening either. Certainly an option to pick up one or two others for upgrades.

[MrTPlush]

I really doubt they would keep Gonzalez and Nelson. That’s a lot of money for two long relievers in the pen. I could see one, but both seems like a lot of money on a tight budget.

 

I’d be surprised to see Gio back without an assured spot in the rotation.

[pacopete4]

I’d rather go with Burnes or Peralta over Nelson.

[Ennder]

When you are looking at the rotation options and going like 12 names deep there is absolutely no way that Burnes isn't on the list. It makes no sense at all to come to that conclusion. It won't surprise me if Burnes is never a useful major league pitcher but it also won't surprise me if he pitches a solid 15 games starting mid season next year. Pitching is so volatile year to year.

[clancyphile]

The fact is, assuming every free agent is retained and no signings take place, here is how the rotation looks:

 

Definitely In

Woodruff

Davies

 

Likely to be In

Gio

Houser

Lyles

 

On the Bubble

Suter

Anderson

Peralta

 

Outside Looking In

Nelson

Burnes

Faria

Supak

 

Minor League Wild Cards

Brown

Roegner

Bettinger

File

Francis

Zavolas

Ashby

[Ennder]

actually people here do realize that CC went with got them to this point in the first place with Josh going 2 innings

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/32760/josh-hader

 

Hader pitched 2 (or more) innings in 14 of his 61 appearances this year. 10 of the 14 came before the all-star break, and Josh only pitched two full innings twice after the trade deadline. It mostly worked, as Hader had 2 wins, 9 saves and a hold against 2 blown saves.

 

I can understand Counsell's rationale for having Hader pitch multiple innings in the Wild Card game, but it wasn't the formula for most of their wins.

 

Counsell didn't pitch Hader multiple innings in the wild card game. He brought him in for the 8th against the tough part of their lineup. If he was able to pitch 2 innings that's great, it wasn't the only option. If Hader gets soto out you would have seen someone else pitch the 9th in that game.

[wntrtxn21]

Woodruff of course

 

Davies - consistently decent.

Houser - earned it

Lyles - earned it (assuming he will resign at a decent $$)

 

Gonzo - why not?? Sign him for depth and use him in the BP. He seems to like it here too.

Anderson - like Gonzo, depth/BP

 

Burnes - world-beater pre-2019; 2019: excellent-AAA/Dumpster fire-MLB. A lot of people will be digging into what happened, but he will be in consideration for 2020.

Nelson - one more chance.

 

One very good starter, 3 decent options, two BP/depth options and two boom/busts picks. That isn't horrible depth. If Burnes/Nelson bounce back to former glory, Woodruff, Nelson, Burnes, Lyles, and Houser is a really nice rotation.

 

But I wouldn't bank on that happening either. Certainly an option to pick up one or two others for upgrades.

 

In 2019 Burnes was NOT excellent in AAA. If anything he was also a dumpster fire there too. 1-5 W/L - 8.46 ERA - 29 hits in only 22 IPs - 21 ERs - WHIP 1.70. Demoted to AA ball. I think after his last performance he starts the year in AAA as a starter and they go from there. I believe Nelson has a better chance of bouncing back than does Burnes. Houser had his ups and downs, but showed enough promise to start the year as a starter. Hopfully Stearns re-signs Lyles and/or adds a FA starter. Otherwise the stating staff is once again extremely weak after Woodruff.

[rickh150]

26 man roster..... 28 man roster in September, Must be down 15 days instead of 10... All this will cause the team to rethink their philosophy on pitching.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-announces-major-rule-changes-for-2019-and-2020/

 

My guess is the team invests in a starting pitcher or two (not Cołe) to shore this area. Piggy backing could be the next thing we hear of in Milwaukee. Two guys scheduled for one game instead of one.

[wntrtxn21]

26 man roster..... 28 man roster in September, Must be down 15 days instead of 10... All this will cause the team to rethink their philosophy on pitching.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-announces-major-rule-changes-for-2019-and-2020/

 

My guess is the team invests in a starting pitcher or two (not Cołe) to shore this area. Piggy backing could be the next thing we hear of in Milwaukee. Two guys scheduled for one game instead of one.

 

Boy are you right! The 15 day thing is huge to teams like the Brewers who used the 10 day call-back option liberally. Plus I think they are still working on the total number of pitchers (13/14) allowed on the 26 man roster. The LOOGY is dead with the new 3 batter minimum which effects guys like Claudio. No matter what I think Stearns has to look at getting more/better starting pitching.

[phnxcrew]

Yeah if we're really gonna throw out Woodruff and everybody else (internal options) again we need the best bullpen in the league. You simply have to pair some one with Woodruff as above average options at some point. My guess would be Stearns overreacts to this season's failures and signs two SP's to medium/ large contracts. I'd prefer one and a bounce back type

[long ball]

Locks:

Woodruff

Davies

 

Probable:

Houser

 

Option/outgoing free agents/arbitration:

Anderson- I think i'd decline the option since I think it's higher than his free agent price so the brewers could save some $$ on that roster spot

Lyles- I'd be interested in pursuing him. Realistically, a contract like the one Miley got makes sense. However, with the free agent market being relatively thin for relievers I wonder if some teams might pursue him as a reliever and drive up the price.

Gio- I'd be interested in brining him back. I don't think he gets much more than $3mm or so guaranteed.

Nelson- I'd lean toward tendering him a contract and seeing what he's like in spring before his contract becomes fully guaranteed. Stearns seemed to dance around the Nelson questions in the season wrap up presser.

Pomeranz- if they are able to bring him back it's 99.9% chance as a reliever. F

 

Other internal options:

Peralta- I think they should stretch him out as a starter in spring. May end up in the pen and/or shuttle squad

Burnes- Same deal as peralta.

Suter- I think they should stretch him out, but it would be hard to move him out of the pen role based on that performance in september.

Faria- bring him to spring and see if he can earn a spot on the roster in some capacity.

 

Free agent starter I'm most interested in is Wheeler, but I'd guess he's going to be way more expensive than the Brewers will be in the market for.

I like Colin McHugh as a swing man type if he's healthy.

[Roderick]

....

Free agent starter I'm most interested in is Wheeler, but I'd guess he's going to be way more expensive than the Brewers will be in the market for.

 

If Grandal goes somewhere else and we go the Pina route, then you have $18M to spend on pitching. I assume it would be a tier below Wheeler and more in the $12M/year market and use the extra as needed - but if they really like Wheeler, they could make it happen.

[TURBO]

True, but that 18 million is one year, Wheeler is going take a bigger commitment than one season.

[Roderick]

True, but that 18 million is one year, Wheeler is going take a bigger commitment than one season.

 

I realize that. The first year is the hardest year to budget usually - as you have more commitments and less planning time. In our instance we can fit him in 2020 (with no Grandal), and he carries forward as a commitment to budget around. Hopefully the Braun savings in 2021 can for other team needs.

 

I don't especially want Wheeler unless the price is right, but we can afford him unless someone with deep pockets really likes him (Cole, Stratsburg, Ryu).

[Jopal78]

I obviously do very well at Wrigley,” Hamels told Mooney, speaking of his free agency options. “Hopefully, that’s what they think about. Otherwise, I know the other teams in the division are going to think about it. If you have to come to Wrigley three different times, I don’t pitch bad there…I know I do very well in the NL Central.”

 

While this ultimately may amount to little more than a bit of lighthearted dialogue between a veteran pitcher and a beat reporter with whom he has developed rapport, it seems noteworthy that Hamels may already be imagining himself in the uniform of another NL Central club. Certainly, it would be painful for Cubs fans to see Hamels defect after establishing himself as something of a club rival killer during his time on the North Side.

 

As Mooney points out, Hamels has posted sterling career numbers against NL Central teams in his career, dating back to his time in Philadelphia:

 

• Hamels vs. Cincinnati: 11-2, 2.30 ERA (20 starts)

 

• Hamels vs. Milwaukee: 8-5, 3.53 ERA (20 starts)

 

• Hamels vs. Pittsburgh: 5-4, 2.52 ERA (13 starts)

 

• Hamels vs. St. Louis: 5-6, 2.21 ERA (17 starts)

 

Makes a lot of sense for the Brewers, at 36 years old Hamels is not going to command the long term high dollar contract the Brewers never give out. As evidenced with Grandal the Brewers are willing to offer a high salary on a short term contract.

 

An established veteran like Hamels would also slot into a young rotation: Woodruff, Hamels, Davies, Houser, then one of Anderson/Nelson/Suter/Peralta/Burnes/Faria.

 

Plus from the stats above he is a killer in the division with his worst numbers in the division are against the brewers

[long ball]

Hamels is definitely an interesting target. I definitely though Hamels was washed and I was not all that concerned when the Cubs acquired him last year. He's been very good for them though.

 

Hamels went 6 or more IP in 12 of his 27 starts. No guarantee the brewers would use him the same way as the cubs did, but he at least has the potential to be effective AND work slightly deeper into games at a slightly higher rate than the Brewers typically use their starters.

[clancyphile]

Hamels might make sense as a bridge to Ashby or Small.

 

But we'd have to see Ashby make a huge jump - and the same with Small.

[liveforoctober]

Super funny we would consider Hamels given the trash talking he has done the last year+ ... BUT if there is a team that is better suited for a veteran looking for a short term deal to maximize dollars.. I'd like to know who that is. Hamels does, fortunately or unfortunately, make a lot of sense.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Super funny we would consider Hamels given the trash talking he has done the last year+ ... BUT if there is a team that is better suited for a veteran looking for a short term deal to maximize dollars.. I'd like to know who that is. Hamels does, fortunately or unfortunately, make a lot of sense.

 

I know it doesn't matter as much as it used to, but it would be nice to have a lefty to break up the righties in the rotation as well.

[reillymcshane]

Davies

Woodruff

Houser

Lyles (2-years, $8-10M)

Gio (1-year, $3-4M)

 

Why?

 

Anderson will make $8.5 million. You can probably get a better player for $8M.

 

Nelson made $3.7M in 2019. Figure he makes a similar number next year in his final year of arby. That's just too much for someone who has not looked good. The team will just cut ties, unless they can ink him to a lesser deal. The team could offer Nelson arbitration, see how he does in camp, and cut him if he looks bad. They would only need to pay him 1/6 of his salary - which would probably be 600-650k. This is, obviously, risky, but if Nelson comes out looking solid, you're good. If not, the money lose isn't overwhelming.

 

Relievers: Hader, Knebel, Suter, Claudio, Guerra, Pomeranz (if he can be resigned), plus a couple of guys from the list of Jay Jackson, Taylor Williams, Faria, and maybe Jeffress on a minor league or cheap deal. And maybe one of the minor league guys will step up.

 

Peralta and Burnes would need to be assessed and slotted in appropriately. Freddy might be best as a reliever, but I can't really say. Burnes is hard. I thought he was going to be a good player this year. I'd say let him be a starter - head to the minors and get stuff together. We'll need him eventually. He could be your 6th starter (assuming he looks okay). Otherwise, you fall back on someone like Faria for the rotation - which his really risky.

 

In the end, I don't see big free agent signings. No way we pay $35M for Cole or $30M for Strasburg (or whatever they will make). And paying $15M+ for a mid-level starter seems to be a bad idea. I think the club will inquire on a bunch of guys - MadBum, Odorizzi, Wheeler, etc., etc. - but someone will overpay for them - in years and dollars.

 

If a bargain falls into the club's lap, sure, they will pounce. But they won't overextend themselves on starters. They'll settle for guys like Gio and Lyles. I also could see them adding a bounce back arm, like Alex Wood. He's the kind of guy that could start, or end up in the bullpen.

 

All just my way to early guesses.