2020 Brewers rotation

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Keep piggy backing Burnes. A lot of the pitchers have different stuff in comparison to who they are piggy backed with. If based on performance, Layer should lose his next start to Burnes or Peralta.

 

Woodruff

Burnes/Suter

Houser/Lauer

Peralta/Lindblom

Anderson

[Zad Fnark]

What is everyone's impression of Lauer?

 

I missed his first start, and only caught the 2nd inning of yesterday's start, when it looked like he was getting insanely unlucky with bloop singles and incredibly squeezed by the ump. It seemed like he just hit the corner on 6 straight pitches that were all called balls before the barrage of hits and runs began.

 

I'd be a little bummed if they pulled him from the rotation so soon, but at the same time I feel like Burnes has earned a shot to stick in the rotation so who knows. Good to have this many good options I guess (although I'm not wild about Anderson at all, Lindblom looks ok but nothing that special so far).

 

 

I hate talking bad about any Brewer. (I have a Jesus jersey...)

 

 

But Lauer doesn't inspire any confidence in me. I want to like these guys, but I can't with him. Even Lindblom is a little sketchy right now, though he does have good stuff.

[KeithStone53151]

Keep piggy backing Burnes. A lot of the pitchers have different stuff in comparison to who they are piggy backed with. If based on performance, Layer should lose his next start to Burnes or Peralta.

 

Woodruff

Burnes/Suter

Houser/Lauer

Peralta/Lindblom

Anderson

 

Piggybacking won't last much longer. Once rosters trim to 26, we'll need a legit 5 man rotation. We do have more offdays in September than July/August...assuming making up our games against the Cardinals doesn't throw a wrench in that. How crazy that I have way more confidence in our top pitching than our top hitting right now? We could have a semi-formidable pitching staff in the playoffs with Woodruff and Houser starting as many of the games as they can...with the best of the crop above starting the others. There are also a good handful of guys throwing the ball well in the bullpen...I know it probably doesn't seem like it, but that's primarily because we're getting blown out so often when Lauer/Anderson/Lindblom pitch that CC is using the Yardleys and Grimms of the world to eat those innings and they are expectedly getting crushed.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

What is everyone's impression of Lauer?

 

I missed his first start, and only caught the 2nd inning of yesterday's start, when it looked like he was getting insanely unlucky with bloop singles and incredibly squeezed by the ump. It seemed like he just hit the corner on 6 straight pitches that were all called balls before the barrage of hits and runs began.

 

I'd be a little bummed if they pulled him from the rotation so soon, but at the same time I feel like Burnes has earned a shot to stick in the rotation so who knows. Good to have this many good options I guess (although I'm not wild about Anderson at all, Lindblom looks ok but nothing that special so far).

 

 

I hate talking bad about any Brewer. (I have a Jesus jersey...)

 

 

But Lauer doesn't inspire any confidence in me. I want to like these guys, but I can't with him. Even Lindblom is a little sketchy right now, though he does have good stuff.

 

My hope with Lauer rests in that he only just turned 25. He looked pretty lights-out in Spring Training, and also at times with the Padres last year. Last night it looked like he was putting it up there on a tee for the Twins, though.

[brewmann04]

I think Lauer took a step back once he missed some time. I think he will perform better he also does not have that Big Petco park to pitch in anymore.

[Eye Black]

Corbin Burnes has been announced as Tuesday’s starter versus the Twins (and Maeda).

 

 

[pacopete4]

Can we officially put the "Adrian Houser isn't a starter" debate to rest? Not sure what else the guy has to prove.

 

Adrian Houser this season:

 

First 2gs: 2-0, 0.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP

 

Last 6gs: 0-4, 7.45 ERA, 1.62 WHIP

 

 

I was hoping to be wrong and said it in this thread. I don’t think I am and the numbers continue to pile up.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Can we officially put the "Adrian Houser isn't a starter" debate to rest? Not sure what else the guy has to prove.

 

Adrian Houser this season:

 

First 2gs: 2-0, 0.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP

 

Last 6gs: 0-4, 7.45 ERA, 1.62 WHIP

 

 

I was hoping to be wrong and said it in this thread. I don’t think I am and the numbers continue to pile up.

 

Yeah. I still have hope, but he is pitching like crap. Not sure how much proof you can get out of this pandemic season, but he is certainly going to be on notice going into next year. Right now it is looking like I could be wrong, again. Why can't this team develop nice things?

[Lathund]

Houser is generating low exit velocities (47th of 349 qualified pitchers), gets the highest groundball rates in the league and puts up OK (but not great) K/BB numbers. It seems like he leaves a few too many hangers up which needs to improve. But even so, a big part of what he struggles from is a .331 BABIP and close to a 30% HR/FB rate. When he struggles it's mostly all singles. He's better than this, and to me is still a starter. But even so, it would be good if they could figure some kind of role out where he perhaps goes all-out for 3-4 innings while working some kinks out. Like the early-season Anderson/Burnes piggyback or something.

[sveumrules]

Can we officially put the "Adrian Houser isn't a starter" debate to rest? Not sure what else the guy has to prove.

 

Adrian Houser this season:

 

First 2gs: 2-0, 0.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP

 

Last 6gs: 0-4, 7.45 ERA, 1.62 WHIP

 

 

I was hoping to be wrong and said it in this thread. I don’t think I am and the numbers continue to pile up.

 

He wasn't the second coming of Cy Young after two starts & he isn't completely doomed as a starting pitcher because of his last six outings.

 

Neither of those samples are large enough to have any predictive power, especially for a stat as noisy as ERA.

 

Over the last two seasons Houser has 123 IP as a starter, a larger sample than 2 or 6 starts, but still of limited predictive value.

 

In those 123 IP, he has posted a 109 ERA- & 97 FIP-, so he's been in the vicinity of league average overall. About a #4 by ERA & a #3 by FIP.

 

The most predictive stat after only 123 IP would be xFIP-, where Adrian has posted an 84 mark, in line with a #2 starter.

 

From the looks of things, Adrian is about a #3 by true talent, with upside to still become a #2 or maybe his results never catch up to his peripherals & he ends up a #4 or bullpen piece.

 

The only thing that's really certain at this point is its still too early to really know anything for certain.

[JohnBriggs12]

Stearns has a lot of work to do in the winter. I don't see the upside in Houser. He'll be 28 in February and has all of about 170 major league innings. Lindblom is 33 and also has less than 200.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Stearns has a lot of work to do in the winter. I don't see the upside in Houser. He'll be 28 in February and has all of about 170 major league innings. Lindblom is 33 and also has less than 200.

 

That'll happen when you blow out your elbow when you're on the cusp of the major leagues, and miss over a year and a half because of it.

 

And Lindblom las less than 200 MLB innings because he has 830 KBO innings on his resume.

 

The work is going to fall on Counsell, not Stearns, because the only question is where these guys are going to slot into the rotation. Have to think that Woodruff and Burnes are locks. I'd like to see Peralta get another look. Lauer is going to get another chance. Anderson has probably pitched well enough that they may look to re-sign him.

[PeaveyFury]

Why are we using low career major league innings as a marker of anything?

[pacopete4]

Until the results start matching some of the analytical stats, I just don't believe he will ever be more than a low rotational guy. When we already know he can be an elite bullpen guy, this move bothers me. Go sign 3 Brett Andersons as they basically are better than Houser as a starter and make your pen that much better.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Go sign 3 Brett Andersons as they basically are better than Houser as a starter and make your pen that much better.

 

That's only true if you truly believe that Houser's last 6 games pitching during this weird pandemic year is truly who he is as a starter. I'm not convinced yet that that's the case, although the evidence is beginning to mount. Yeah, he was lights out as a reliever, but I think you'd find that a lot of MLB starters have put up better numbers out of the pen than in the rotation.

 

I think it's likely that he starts 2021 as the team's #3 or #4 starter, but will likely have a bit of a shorter leash based on the inconsistency he's shown this year.

[pacopete4]

Go sign 3 Brett Andersons as they basically are better than Houser as a starter and make your pen that much better.

 

That's only true if you truly believe that Houser's last 6 games pitching during this weird pandemic year is truly who he is as a starter. I'm not convinced yet that that's the case, although the evidence is beginning to mount. Yeah, he was lights out as a reliever, but I think you'd find that a lot of MLB starters have put up better numbers out of the pen than in the rotation.

 

I think it's likely that he starts 2021 as the team's #3 or #4 starter, but will likely have a bit of a shorter leash based on the inconsistency he's shown this year.

 

He's pitching about as well as he did a season ago as a starter. We seem to want to make excuses for him and his poor results. At what point is it enough data? He wasn't very good in the minors as a starter. He hasn't been good as a major league starter. He has shown to have elite stuff in the pen and on a good team, could be a difference maker back there. Right now he's just a "guy" in a rotation that happens to be able to throw enough pitches to get to 4-5 innings. Why not maximize what he is? If he was a younger guy, I might think differently but he's not.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Go sign 3 Brett Andersons as they basically are better than Houser as a starter and make your pen that much better.

 

That's only true if you truly believe that Houser's last 6 games pitching during this weird pandemic year is truly who he is as a starter. I'm not convinced yet that that's the case, although the evidence is beginning to mount. Yeah, he was lights out as a reliever, but I think you'd find that a lot of MLB starters have put up better numbers out of the pen than in the rotation.

 

I think it's likely that he starts 2021 as the team's #3 or #4 starter, but will likely have a bit of a shorter leash based on the inconsistency he's shown this year.

 

He's pitching about as well as he did a season ago as a starter. We seem to want to make excuses for him and his poor results. At what point is it enough data? He wasn't very good in the minors as a starter. He hasn't been good as a major league starter. He has shown to have elite stuff in the pen and on a good team, could be a difference maker back there. Right now he's just a "guy" in a rotation that happens to be able to throw enough pitches to get to 4-5 innings. Why not maximize what he is? If he was a younger guy, I might think differently but he's not.

 

He'll be in the rotation until they have a better option to replace him with. Right now "just a "guy" in a rotation that happens to be able to throw enough pitches to get to 4-5 innings" is good enough to hold down a solid rotation spot given the lack of options. Hopefully if these guys continue to improve and develop, and Houser doesn't improve, moving him to the pen in favor of a better rotation option will be a viable option. Right now it isn't.

[pacopete4]

Per Adam McCalvy:

Jon Lester on Brandon Woodruff: "That dude's stuff is incredible. He should be a fixture in baseball as a dominant pitcher for a long time. To match zeros with him, give our team a chance, I mean, that's all you can really do in games like that when a guy's on like that."

 

David Ross on Brandon Woodruff: "That's a No. 1 starter. That's a real ace."

 

 

There’s been too many nice compliments from Cubs recently.

[adambr2]

Per Adam McCalvy:

Jon Lester on Brandon Woodruff: "That dude's stuff is incredible. He should be a fixture in baseball as a dominant pitcher for a long time. To match zeros with him, give our team a chance, I mean, that's all you can really do in games like that when a guy's on like that."

 

David Ross on Brandon Woodruff: "That's a No. 1 starter. That's a real ace."

 

 

There’s been too many nice compliments from Cubs recently.

 

I find most actual Cub players/coaches to be quite classy and humble especially when compared with fixtures of the Cardinals like TDLR and Molina.

 

 

It's just their fans that are hopelessly obnoxious.

[JohnBriggs12]

Go sign 3 Brett Andersons as they basically are better than Houser as a starter and make your pen that much better.

 

That's only true if you truly believe that Houser's last 6 games pitching during this weird pandemic year is truly who he is as a starter. I'm not convinced yet that that's the case, although the evidence is beginning to mount. Yeah, he was lights out as a reliever, but I think you'd find that a lot of MLB starters have put up better numbers out of the pen than in the rotation.

 

I think it's likely that he starts 2021 as the team's #3 or #4 starter, but will likely have a bit of a shorter leash based on the inconsistency he's shown this year.

 

He's pitching about as well as he did a season ago as a starter. We seem to want to make excuses for him and his poor results. At what point is it enough data? He wasn't very good in the minors as a starter. He hasn't been good as a major league starter. He has shown to have elite stuff in the pen and on a good team, could be a difference maker back there. Right now he's just a "guy" in a rotation that happens to be able to throw enough pitches to get to 4-5 innings. Why not maximize what he is? If he was a younger guy, I might think differently but he's not.

 

I think we'd all be happy if he turned into the next Chase Anderson, but he's yet to prove he's even that reliable. Part of the frustration is that we see what Davies is doing in San Diego and we wonder what if they had a big 3 of Woodruff, Burnes and Davies?

[adambr2]

Davies is a fine, smart pitcher, but he'll regress at some point to his career norms (which is still pretty solid). He isn't on a level stuff wise with guys like Burnes and Woodruff to form a true big 3.

 

Agreed though, that he would look pretty good in this year's rotation, and that we are lacking anything close to a true #3.

 

I'm wondering if it might be worth a try to piggyback Houser and Peralta as one starter with both going 3 to 4 innings and no more on the same day.

[pacopete4]

If Houser ever found “it” to be a #3 this would be one hell of a rotation. I can see why the Brewers would go down this road with Houser but I don’t think they’ll hit pay dirt with this one. I just keep dreaming how even more ridiculous our back end of the bullpen could truly be.

[homer]

Davies is K'ing a few more people this year than in the past but he's also got a .220 BABIP. He's had some luck. Having said that I agree that he'd be an improvement at #3 than what we have. Although I like Urias long term so not upset about that deal right now.

[LouisEly]

He's pitching about as well as he did a season ago as a starter. We seem to want to make excuses for him and his poor results. At what point is it enough data?

Maybe we need to look at the right data. Some data suggests he is pitching better than he was a year ago:

 

Hard hit %: 2019 - 35.3%, 2020 - 30.8%

Soft hit %: 2019 - 17.8%, 2020 - 21.1%

Exit velocity: 2019 - 86.7, 2020 - 86.0

Ground ball %: 2019 - 53.4%, 2020 - 62.9%

Fly ball %: 2019 - 25.5%, 2020 - 15.9%

Infield fly ball %: 2019 - 5.3%, 2020 - 9.5%

Launch angle: 2019 - 5.3, 2020 - (-0.7)

BABIP: 2019 - .301, 2020 - .331

 

The outlier is HR/FB% (18.4% in 2019 to 28.6% in 2020), but his flyball % is down so that isn't a big factor (HR/9 was 1.13 in 2019 to 1.27 in 2020, not a significant increase). His xFIP in 2019 was 3.60 and in 2020 is 3.85. I'd take that as a starter over the course of 162 games; over 8 starts anything can happen.

 

Maybe it's bad luck. Maybe it's bad pitch-calling, because that has changed significantly over last year.

 

Four-seam fastball: 2019 - 31.4%, 2020 - 17.1%

Two-seam fastball: 2019 - 36.0%, 2020 - 47.9%

Changeup: 2019 - 7.0%, 2020 - 12.6%

Curveball: 2019 - 13.9%, 2020 - 11.2%

 

Maybe throwing the two-seamer almost half of the time has made him more predictable, and he needs to throw the 4-seam and curve more often. Maybe the changeup and two-seam have similar sinking action and makes them easier to hit.

 

What it looks like is the change in pitch selection has resulted in fewer strikeouts and more balls in play, and the balls that have been put in play - while softer in contact and much more on the ground than in the air - have found holes in the defense for an above-average hit %. And that's more luck and coaching than his skill set.

[pacopete4]

He's pitching about as well as he did a season ago as a starter. We seem to want to make excuses for him and his poor results. At what point is it enough data?

Maybe we need to look at the right data. Some data suggests he is pitching better than he was a year ago:

 

Hard hit %: 2019 - 35.3%, 2020 - 30.8%

Soft hit %: 2019 - 17.8%, 2020 - 21.1%

Exit velocity: 2019 - 86.7, 2020 - 86.0

Ground ball %: 2019 - 53.4%, 2020 - 62.9%

Fly ball %: 2019 - 25.5%, 2020 - 15.9%

Infield fly ball %: 2019 - 5.3%, 2020 - 9.5%

Launch angle: 2019 - 5.3, 2020 - (-0.7)

BABIP: 2019 - .301, 2020 - .331

 

The outlier is HR/FB% (18.4% in 2019 to 28.6% in 2020), but his flyball % is down so that isn't a big factor (HR/9 was 1.13 in 2019 to 1.27 in 2020, not a significant increase). His xFIP in 2019 was 3.60 and in 2020 is 3.85. I'd take that as a starter over the course of 162 games; over 8 starts anything can happen.

 

Maybe it's bad luck. Maybe it's bad pitch-calling, because that has changed significantly over last year.

 

Four-seam fastball: 2019 - 31.4%, 2020 - 17.1%

Two-seam fastball: 2019 - 36.0%, 2020 - 47.9%

Changeup: 2019 - 7.0%, 2020 - 12.6%

Curveball: 2019 - 13.9%, 2020 - 11.2%

 

Maybe throwing the two-seamer almost half of the time has made him more predictable, and he needs to throw the 4-seam and curve more often. Maybe the changeup and two-seam have similar sinking action and makes them easier to hit.

 

What it looks like is the change in pitch selection has resulted in fewer strikeouts and more balls in play, and the balls that have been put in play - while softer in contact and much more on the ground than in the air - have found holes in the defense for an above-average hit %. And that's more luck and coaching than his skill set.

 

I’m not saying any of this is wrong or that there’s no chance he will be a decent starting pitcher. But, he’s never actually had a season full worth of good results as a starting pitcher. Not as a Brewer. Not as a minor leaguer. But we keep making a case for him. I can understand why the organization wants to give it a go because it’d be another cheap option to a rotation but at some point the results matter in the grand scheme of this game and he just hasn’t gotten it done consistently enough to warrant a starting spot. At least not when he has shown he could be an elite piece to a back end of the pen.