2020 Brewers rotation

[monty57]

You can pretty much take it to the bank that Anderson will be pulled from the rotation by May 15th with a 6+ ERA.

 

His career ERA is 4.05 in 997.1 career innings, mainly pitching in the AL facing a DH and battling a lot of injuries in his career. It's possible that he will bomb, but you certainly can't "take it to the bank" that he will be significantly worse than he historically has been.

[brewcrewdue80]

ZIPS: Houser 4.09 ERA | Lauer 4.65 ERA

 

Marcel: Houser 4.04 ERA | Lauer 4.41 ERA

 

Steamer: Houser 4.23 ERA | Lauer 4.65 ERA

 

The Bat: Houser 4.30 ERA | Lauer 4.68 ERA

 

ATC: Houser 4.08 ERA | Lauer 4.63 ERA

 

Every publicly available projection system I could find has Houser a notch above Lauer, so I'm not surprised it appears as though the Brewers do.

 

Not that it really matters since projections are wrong all the time & both will likely be counted on to throw important innings for a hopefully contending club all summer long.

 

Heres the thing. Is Houser being projected as a full time starter? Lauer most likely is as thats been his career to date. Houser has data from being a good RP to mix with SP. Also gotta bring up that Lauer for his career is basically a 3.55 ERA SP once you remove his IP at Coors field. 4.6s ERA projections is laughable and lazy homework.

[Roderick]

ZIPS: Houser 4.09 ERA | Lauer 4.65 ERA

 

Marcel: Houser 4.04 ERA | Lauer 4.41 ERA

 

Steamer: Houser 4.23 ERA | Lauer 4.65 ERA

 

The Bat: Houser 4.30 ERA | Lauer 4.68 ERA

 

ATC: Houser 4.08 ERA | Lauer 4.63 ERA

 

Every publicly available projection system I could find has Houser a notch above Lauer, so I'm not surprised it appears as though the Brewers do.

 

Not that it really matters since projections are wrong all the time & both will likely be counted on to throw important innings for a hopefully contending club all summer long.

 

Heres the thing. Is Houser being projected as a full time starter? Lauer most likely is as thats been his career to date. Houser has data from being a good RP to mix with SP. Also gotta bring up that Lauer for his career is basically a 3.55 ERA SP once you remove his IP at Coors field. 4.6s ERA projections is laughable and lazy homework.

 

Lauer: It would be logical that his ERA would be projected for more than last year. He is going from the NL West to the NL Central (and half his games in Miller). But, you also hope and project that he has hit his prime and will improve from last year.

[MadScientist]

This article takes a fairly balanced look at the staff:

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MlbTradeRumors/~3/mSZVBbuhZOQ/brewers-rotation-battle-freddy-peralta-eric-lauer-corbin-burnes.html

 

If the slider Peralta has shown in winter ball plays at the MLB level, he should win the 5th spot, and Carlos Villanueva should get a raise. The bottom line is that the way the Brewers use their starters, as long as none of them are a dumpster fire, they should be right in the mix at the end. They have enough options so CC ought to be able to cobble together a workable staff.

[BrewFan130]

I’m curious why Suter isn’t listed as a strong candidate for the starting rotation. Yeah, he doesn’t have the velocity, but he’s not that type of pitcher and has never been. He’s always proven himself as a reliable part of the Brewers staff with his off speed game. Or are they looking at him as a long relief guy .

[TJseven7]

I’m curious why Suter isn’t listed as a strong candidate for the starting rotation. Yeah, he doesn’t have the velocity, but he’s not that type of pitcher and has never been. He’s always proven himself as a reliable part of the Brewers staff with his off speed game. Or are they looking at him as a long relief guy .

 

He's very very valuable with his odd style going through the lineup 1 time. He's a 2+ IP reliever.

 

Honestly, if they go with Houser and Peralta in the rotation I almost expect the piggy back idea that we've never seen to come into play.

 

Woodruff

Anderson

Lindblom treated normally.

Houser 4-5 /Suter 2-3

Peralta 4-5 /Lauer 2-3

 

Leaves Hader Phelps Claudio Black and a random until Knebel is back. Lauer and Suter can pitch 1 IP days here and there behind the starter 1-2-3. But you can toggle them so that they line up for a longer stint with Houser and Peralta. I honestly don't know why more teams don't just schedule it this way. 3 IP x 32 (160/5) = 96 innings in a year. You give Suter and Lauer 3 innings every 5 starts and they carry a lot of weight in the pen without being over taxed. It'd save your pen a lot of wear and tear.

 

Houser/Lauer Peralta/Suter styles are about as opposite as they get.

[MadScientist]

I’m curious why Suter isn’t listed as a strong candidate for the starting rotation. Yeah, he doesn’t have the velocity, but he’s not that type of pitcher and has never been. He’s always proven himself as a reliable part of the Brewers staff with his off speed game. Or are they looking at him as a long relief guy .

 

They announced that Suter was going to be in the pen, so no speculation that he would be a starter. There was some concern about his stuff playing through enough batters as a starter. Also he had TJ, and he pitches with very little time between pitches. There's been research that shows recovery time between pitches is a factor in needing TJ surgery. It wouldn't be a stretch to think that the pen would be a better place for him to be able to manage stress on his arm. Also going from starter to Suter to Hader might be a bit demoralizing on batters

[monty57]

I’m curious why Suter isn’t listed as a strong candidate for the starting rotation. Yeah, he doesn’t have the velocity, but he’s not that type of pitcher and has never been. He’s always proven himself as a reliable part of the Brewers staff with his off speed game. Or are they looking at him as a long relief guy .

 

He's very very valuable with his odd style going through the lineup 1 time. He's a 2+ IP reliever.

 

Honestly, if they go with Houser and Peralta in the rotation I almost expect the piggy back idea that we've never seen to come into play.

 

Woodruff

Anderson

Lindblom treated normally.

Houser 4-5 /Suter 2-3

Peralta 4-5 /Lauer 2-3

 

Leaves Hader Phelps Claudio Black and a random until Knebel is back. Lauer and Suter can pitch 1 IP days here and there behind the starter 1-2-3. But you can toggle them so that they line up for a longer stint with Houser and Peralta. I honestly don't know why more teams don't just schedule it this way. 3 IP x 32 (160/5) = 96 innings in a year. You give Suter and Lauer 3 innings every 5 starts and they carry a lot of weight in the pen without being over taxed. It'd save your pen a lot of wear and tear.

 

Houser/Lauer Peralta/Suter styles are about as opposite as they get.

 

I think "piggy-backing" may be a bit too rigid, but with several multiple-inning guys in the pen, the Brewers have done a variation of this. Before Hader was forced into the closer role, he could pitch around every third day. Add guys like Suter and Guerra in the mix, and the team had a multiple-inning guy for every day if they needed one. Some days a pitcher is doing well, and some days you are up or down a lot of runs, so keeping flexibility seems to make more sense than the rigid schedule.

 

It'd be wonderful to have five guys that could go 6+ innings regularly, but if that's not a possibility, then it makes sense to keep a few guys in the pen who can go multiple innings. Hader gets all the glory, but he can't go every day, so a guy like Suter is very valuable to the team. Also shows why losing Knebel along with Jeffress' implosion really hurt the team last year.

[ecjimg]

Well according to the espn webpage brewers depth chart, our #3 starter is Mike Moriarty, a shortstop that played a few games for Baltimore in 2002.

 

Ok, an obvious error but .....

[KeithStone53151]

Well according to the espn webpage brewers depth chart, our #3 starter is Mike Moriarty, a shortstop that played a few games for Baltimore in 2002.

 

Ok, an obvious error but .....

 

He'd probably do better than Brett Anderson...

 

Ok, that's my last one until the regular season.....

[KeithStone53151]

 

On Peralta

[TJseven7]

I think "piggy-backing" may be a bit too rigid, but with several multiple-inning guys in the pen, the Brewers have done a variation of this. Before Hader was forced into the closer role, he could pitch around every third day. Add guys like Suter and Guerra in the mix, and the team had a multiple-inning guy for every day if they needed one. Some days a pitcher is doing well, and some days you are up or down a lot of runs, so keeping flexibility seems to make more sense than the rigid schedule.

 

It'd be wonderful to have five guys that could go 6+ innings regularly, but if that's not a possibility, then it makes sense to keep a few guys in the pen who can go multiple innings. Hader gets all the glory, but he can't go every day, so a guy like Suter is very valuable to the team. Also shows why losing Knebel along with Jeffress' implosion really hurt the team last year.

 

I don't think it's too rigid if you only use it for 40% of your rotation.

We have 3 guys who are very likely to be solidly over 5IP per start. Hopefully between 5.5 and 6. Even 5.5s put stress on the pen. Peralta Houser Lauer are not in that boat quite yet. That adds 1 IP to the BP every 2 starts.

 

The typical RP pitches around 60-70IP per year. But every starter like Houser Peralta adds 16 IP to the pen beyond the 16 IP 5.5s push into the pen. We have 1 guy who we can realistically hope eats 6 per start. It would be wonderful to have 6+ IP guys. We don't, we likely never will.

 

So how do you make up the 96 IP? Shuttle helps. However the BEST way is to do it is to get 3 IP per 5 starts from a pen piece in a way that won't blow their arm out. Suter and if in the pen Lauer can absolutely handle that. I don't honestly care if they are in high or low leverage. You if the starter has a great day, goes 6. Give the ball to Lauer or Suter and trust them to finish the game. If the starts has a bad day, give the ball to Lauer or Suter to knock out 3 innings.

 

You have to alleviate that stress on the pen. I think the last 3 options in the pen need to be better for this to be comfortable but I think we misconstrue our open belief in numbers. If Suter is in position to succeed 1 time through, I don't care the leverage of the situation. Hand him the ball. You don't need to pitch Hader in the 9th because the game is close. If Houser goes 6 strong and its a 1 run game. Hand the ball to Suter and let him pitch to his numbers and finish the game.

 

We say we believe in the numbers of it. Then we panic and feel you need to throw out the numbers of it.

 

Stress on a pen is a real problem. Situational stuff is irrational fear.

[CheezWizHed]

Well according to the espn webpage brewers depth chart, our #3 starter is Mike Moriarty, a shortstop that played a few games for Baltimore in 2002.

 

Ok, an obvious error but .....

 

But he is no Bill Hall...

[brewcrewdue80]

Just remember for the season they have a 26man roster, the RPs have the 3batter minimum. I think the worry on RPs being tired/overused will sort itself out on the new rules.

Alex Claudio appeared in 83 games last season for 62IP and a total of 267batters faced. The year prior he appeared in 66 games with 68.1ip and 299bf. Another year before it was 70games appeared 82.2ip and 323 batters faced. His usage will result in more IP in less games appeared. and my word, did he have some nice numbers for Tex. How nice would he be to pitch to a 3.34Fip vs the 4.92Fip he gave us last season.

 

I mean, wow, just think about this. Albers, Jeffress, Claudio, Burnes, Nelson+Barnes, just all these RPs gruesomely underperformed to what you expect or hoped from them, and Milw made the playoffs.

 

Also via BRef, when looking at the Splits, the SPs had a 4.4ERA as did the RPs at a 4.4ERA. So we can set a mark to reach 4.1/4.2ERA and be improved on last seasons pitching. I found it really interesting that the team posted a .708OPS against at Miller park. Only 3 parks did they beat that number-Phi, Cin, Mia. Hey feel good on the vs Cin pitching vs them well! Pitts meanwhile came in 13th/19 at .827OPS against. That should be better considering where they are going this season.

 

You gotta put Peralta as the leader for #4 or 5, after today's showing, he seems on a level to just go after that fall. That would put Lindblom/Lauer atm as your #4/5 last man battle, Maybe that can be your tandem/piggyback. R/L or L/R depending the makeup of the team you're facing. Just gotta feel much better heading in to this season with how the pitching staff as a whole is shaping up. Suter in relief a full season, Kneble returns, Hader, Can we have Burnes?, Claudio bounceback, vs the Albers/Jeffress/Hader headlining last year at this time.

[TURBO]

Peralta's performance is exactly why the rotation just can't be decided this early.

 

You have to give it time to shake itself out and see what happens. If Peralta and Burnes outpitch guys like Anderson, Lauer, Lindblom, etc, then they should have a spot. If they don't outpitch people, they shouldn't have a spot, it really is that simple.

 

It is also too early to give Peralta a spot based on one dominant performance...

[KeithStone53151]

Peralta's performance is exactly why the rotation just can't be decided this early.

 

You have to give it time to shake itself out and see what happens. If Peralta and Burnes outpitch guys like Anderson, Lauer, Lindblom, etc, then they should have a spot. If they don't outpitch people, they shouldn't have a spot, it really is that simple.

 

It is also too early to give Peralta a spot based on one dominant performance...

 

Right on. I have no problem with giving guys a clear inside track on rotation spots, but to announce "locks" just seems crazy considering the arms we have behind them. The only person who should be "locked" into a spot at this point is Woodruff, factoring in stuff and results. Everyone else should have to earn it, or be susceptible to Burnes/Peralta potentially taking their spot with a dominant spring.

[MVP2110]

Does Peralta's extension give him a better shot at the rotation?

[clancyphile]

Does Peralta's extension give him a better shot at the rotation?

 

At $3.1 million per year, I don't think it makes a difference.

 

If he is a very solid multi-inning reliever, it's a bargain. If he's a 4.00-ERA starter, it's a bargain (less that 1/3 of what Matt Garza got). If he becomes a right-handed Hader or an ace... the Crew laughs to some division titles while Yelich is here, then they laugh as they flip Freddy for prospects - because that surplus value will be really up there.

[mrn1ceguy]

Does Peralta's extension give him a better shot at the rotation?

 

At $3.1 million per year, I don't think it makes a difference.

 

If he is a very solid multi-inning reliever, it's a bargain. If he's a 4.00-ERA starter, it's a bargain (less that 1/3 of what Matt Garza got). If he becomes a right-handed Hader or an ace... the Crew laughs to some division titles while Yelich is here, then they laugh as they flip Freddy for prospects - because that surplus value will be really up there.

 

I would actually say this extension shows the Brewers believe he will end up a starter eventually (or closer). When everything is guaranteed, you can't just take the average. The 5 year portion is likely setup as $1M, $1M, $2.5M, $4.5M, $6.5M. With year 4 & 5 a guaranteed salary of >$4M, you have to believe he is going to be a starter or closer to give up the opportunity to release at no cost. You don't guarantee that to someone who is going to be a Junior Guerra-esque setup man or multi-inning reliever. The extension gives him time to work his way into being a starter (or closer), but I fully expect he will be there by 2021.

[monty57]

I would actually say this extension shows the Brewers believe he will end up a starter eventually (or closer). When everything is guaranteed, you can't just take the average. The 5 year portion is likely setup as $1M, $1M, $2.5M, $4.5M, $6.5M. With year 4 & 5 a guaranteed salary of >$4M, you have to believe he is going to be a starter or closer to give up the opportunity to release at no cost. You don't guarantee that to someone who is going to be a Junior Guerra-esque setup man or multi-inning reliever. The extension gives him time to work his way into being a starter (or closer), but I fully expect he will be there by 2021.

 

I agree that this means the team thinks he will be a starter, which is great. It also means that any time spent in the 'pen will not be "wasting" his service time, as he is now going to be paid the same whether he's in the pen or the rotation, and whether he's in the majors or minors.

 

If the Brewers really think they can develop starters better by first putting them in the pen, then they can now put their money where their mouth is.

[TJseven7]

I don't see much eventually to it. You don't make that move unless you see him trending towards being a lot more expensive. MKE avoids risk like the plague. This is added risk, they see a big upside and soon. I'd safely assume he's in the rotation. That has nothing to do with his first 2IP. Has a lot to do with his offseason work and the reports of an improved curveball, an added slider and a velocity increase.

 

If he's throwing harder and has 2.5 pitches instead of 1.5, he's certainly a different guy. He might not be ready to go 6IP right now but he can start and throw 4-5. Put Suter behind him for another 2-3 and that should work out pretty well.

[clancyphile]

I don't see much eventually to it. You don't make that move unless you see him trending towards being a lot more expensive. MKE avoids risk like the plague. This is added risk, they see a big upside and soon. I'd safely assume he's in the rotation. That has nothing to do with his first 2IP. Has a lot to do with his offseason work and the reports of an improved curveball, an added slider and a velocity increase.

 

If he's throwing harder and has 2.5 pitches instead of 1.5, he's certainly a different guy. He might not be ready to go 6IP right now but he can start and throw 4-5. Put Suter behind him for another 2-3 and that should work out pretty well.

 

To paraphrase Happy Gilmore...

 

Uh-oh, Freddy has multiple pitches!

[wibadgers23]

Is there ANY chance Peralta and Burnes both make the starting rotation? Assuming they both continue to have a strong spring training.

[brewmann04]

Let see what happens over the next week or two.

[TJseven7]

Is there ANY chance Peralta and Burnes both make the starting rotation? Assuming they both continue to have a strong spring training.

 

Honestly, I really hope not. I don't like Lauer out of the pen as much as I like him in the rotation. Pushing him out for Peralta to me says Lauer is in AAA to start the year. Also taking Peralta out of the pen makes it considerably weaker. I expected him to step up in the pen this year and be a 2 IP 3.5 ERA type guy. I'm not sure I feel the same about Lauer in the pen despite the look of his FB (playing up), cutter, curve trio of pitches.

 

Hader Suter is great. Phelps Claudio Black looks like a bunch of barely getting by. Knebel isn't ready and they still need 3 more arms to fill the pen.

 

I still want either Peralta or Houser in the pen. If they aren't in the pen. What are we doing? You put Burnes in as a starter and Lindblom and Lauer go to the pen cuz Anderson isn't headed to the pen, right? What makes that pen make any sesne? Rasmussen immediately? You might go Burnes in the pen is great. BURNES is a starter who has succeeded out of the pen. He needs to pitch as a starter but it's really hard to trust him day 1 at the MLB and at the expense of what guy being bumped?

 

Peralta pushing towards a rotation spot and LAUER being looked at as the outsider makes this really puzzling. People will say it doesn't but they need to look at the pen. That's a strange pen and to make that even more uneasy, the expected leaders in the clubhouse for those spots started bad.