Questions for 2020

[TURBO]

Not sure why people are hot to give Moose a 3 year deal. It always depends on the number, but he seems like a prime candidate to break down. This year was the outlier of the past 3 offensively.

 

If his SLG ends up being a one year surge, his .310 career (.329 in this BIG past year) isn't very appetizing.

 

Might have something to do with how horrible Shaw was this year.

[MrTPlush]

Cain has already aged enough where people should really see that signing a 30+ year old catcher for the next 3-years is a bad idea.

 

Looking at some catchers that saw a notable decline at 30/31 age area that were bigtime bats:

 

Lucroy - Complete collapse after age 30 season

Molina - Never hit over an .800 OPS after his age 30 season

McCann - Has held it together for the most part, hasn't been much of a serious offensive threat after his age 29 season

Posey - Collapsed after his age 30 season

Pudge - Big collapse after his age 32 season

Miguel Montero - Toast at 30 offensively

 

Pudge was literally the only guy I could find that didn't fall off some sort of cliff at about 30-31....and he is arguably one of the best at the position ever. Not all these guys fell off the map, many had an OPS float around .735 or so...not terrible. However, not worth spending tens of million on if it happens. Elite catchers don't have good histories in their 30s.

 

I find it interesting most people on the board wanted nothing to do with extending Jonathan Lucroy, but Yasmani Grandal is a huge want. Quite a change of heart by the people of the board (not saying it is the same people).

[djoctagone]

With Shaw can they DFA him and outright to the minors? Usually with arbitration eligible players you tender or non them a contract but if they were able to DFA him who would claim him and be willing to pay him 5-6 million a year in arbitration.

travis shaw has an option remaining. it's very likely that the brewers will sign him to a split contract with a more generous minor league salary than that of similar age players.

[djoctagone]

I wonder if there will be room on the roster for both Gamel and Grisham, who are about as similar as they can be. With their various ailments, Braun, Cain, and Yelich all need occasional time off so the Brewers need flexible backups, and can’t afford one dimensional players like Aguilar and Santana.

the days of the 25-man roster are gone next year. there's room.

[markedman5]

With Shaw can they DFA him and outright to the minors? Usually with arbitration eligible players you tender or non them a contract but if they were able to DFA him who would claim him and be willing to pay him 5-6 million a year in arbitration.

travis shaw has an option remaining. it's very likely that the brewers will sign him to a split contract with a more generous minor league salary than that of similar age players.

 

Not sure Travis would go for that.......he might rather be released to try his luck somewhere else.

[MrTPlush]

Rumor had it Shaw was already unhappy with us and wanted to be released instead of rotting away his year in the minors. Not to mention he didn't seem to really enjoy the part time role even in September.

 

If he has a chance to leave he is going.

[BruisedCrew]

I wonder if there will be room on the roster for both Gamel and Grisham, who are about as similar as they can be. With their various ailments, Braun, Cain, and Yelich all need occasional time off so the Brewers need flexible backups, and can’t afford one dimensional players like Aguilar and Santana.

the days of the 25-man roster are gone next year. there's room.

 

The roster is only going up one to 26, and who knows if that extra spot will go to a position player or a pitcher. I don’t know if they finalized the proposal to increasing the IL for pitchers from 10 days to 15. Same for pitchers optioned to the minors. If implemented, those changes would put a speed bump in the way of the Albuquerque shuttle, and might force the Brewers to keep an extra pitcher as long as they won’t let starters face a lineup for a third time.

[adambr2]

Rumor had it Shaw was already unhappy with us and wanted to be released instead of rotting away his year in the minors. Not to mention he didn't seem to really enjoy the part time role even in September.

 

If he has a chance to leave he is going.

 

Is there any credibility whatsoever to this rumor other than a Cardinals' announcer just spewing it out on air?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Rumor had it Shaw was already unhappy with us and wanted to be released instead of rotting away his year in the minors. Not to mention he didn't seem to really enjoy the part time role even in September.

 

If he has a chance to leave he is going.

 

Shaw, in an Instagram post yesterday:

 

As I look back on 2019, all I can come up with is “WHY”. Why did this happen, why couldn’t I fix it, why did this last so long, why me. I went through periods of anger, frustration, disappointment, anxiousness, among others. 2019 broke me down to my core. But I can tell you one thing that was gained was wisdom and a self awareness of what’s important and how to make sure it doesn’t happen again. I don’t have the answers for what happened in 2019 but I know one thing, 2020 WILL be better. So much wisdom and mental strength was gained this year. Time to check out for awhile from baseball, and I promise 2020 will be special again, no regrets! Much love!

 

Those aren't the words of a guy who was unhappy and wanted his release. Seems pretty positive and self-reflective to me

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Rumor had it Shaw was already unhappy with us and wanted to be released instead of rotting away his year in the minors. Not to mention he didn't seem to really enjoy the part time role even in September.

 

If he has a chance to leave he is going.

 

Is there any credibility whatsoever to this rumor other than a Cardinals' announcer just spewing it out on air?

 

None ... no credibility. Even less credibility for the "didn't seem to really enjoy the part time role even in September" part.

 

Shaw looked to me like a guy who was frustrated with his own performance. That's it.

[Outlander]

With Shaw can they DFA him and outright to the minors? Usually with arbitration eligible players you tender or non them a contract but if they were able to DFA him who would claim him and be willing to pay him 5-6 million a year in arbitration.

travis shaw has an option remaining. it's very likely that the brewers will sign him to a split contract with a more generous minor league salary than that of similar age players.

Isn't there some sort of wording in the collective bargaining that he can't make less than his previous year salary so if he is on the 40 man he would still be making $5 million a year even if he was optioned?

[rcc]

Rumor had it Shaw was already unhappy with us and wanted to be released instead of rotting away his year in the minors. Not to mention he didn't seem to really enjoy the part time role even in September.

 

If he has a chance to leave he is going.

 

Shaw, in an Instagram post yesterday:

 

As I look back on 2019, all I can come up with is “WHY”. Why did this happen, why couldn’t I fix it, why did this last so long, why me. I went through periods of anger, frustration, disappointment, anxiousness, among others. 2019 broke me down to my core. But I can tell you one thing that was gained was wisdom and a self awareness of what’s important and how to make sure it doesn’t happen again. I don’t have the answers for what happened in 2019 but I know one thing, 2020 WILL be better. So much wisdom and mental strength was gained this year. Time to check out for awhile from baseball, and I promise 2020 will be special again, no regrets! Much love!

 

Those aren't the words of a guy who was unhappy and wanted his release. Seems pretty positive and self-reflective to me

 

Thanks for posting that. Reflective to me too. He is a midwestern boy who likes Milwaukee.

[thebruce44]

Find a value FA signing at a position of need (C, SS, 3B, or SP). You have internal backup plans for whichever one of those positions you do not address with a FA.

 

Pretty generous to say we have backup plans at either SS or 3B.

 

Like it or not Arcia, Shaw, and Spangenberg are all backup plans. You may not like them, but they are possibilities and wouldn't kill a team to have an offensive black hole in 1 spot in the order.

[MrTPlush]

You can question whether or not he was upset...which he was and I am sure unhappy. Who wouldn't? You think he just happily sat on the AAA bus all year? I would expect him to. I would also 100% expect him to bolt instead of staying here to get sporadic playing time. Again, I wouldn't blame him and I would expect him to. Why would he stay if we sign Moustakas? That makes zero sense on his end. He could find a way more promising situation to be in I am sure. Gotta be a bad team willing to roll the dice on a guy who was one of the better 3B for two years of the last three. The Brewers may not have it in the budget or time to figure out if he can rebound. Why would he like being a part time player in September? This is just common sense.

 

I am sorry, but I am sure he wanted to be released and go elsewhere everyday to start. Why would he want to sit in the minors behind an All Star 3B? I doubt he was literally demanding to be released or even approached the Brewers...but why would he want to stay in a situation with no opportunity?

[MrTPlush]

Find a value FA signing at a position of need (C, SS, 3B, or SP). You have internal backup plans for whichever one of those positions you do not address with a FA.

 

Pretty generous to say we have backup plans at either SS or 3B.

 

Like it or not Arcia, Shaw, and Spangenberg are all backup plans. You may not like them, but they are possibilities and wouldn't kill a team to have an offensive black hole in 1 spot in the order.

 

Spangenberg is not a back up plan. Arcia and Shaw are....and I have said many times there will be a black hole in the line. Probably consisting of Arcia or Pina. Though I have adamantly said they should not go into the year with two of them (not including the pitcher). My bold prediction would be Pina starting and being the blackhole at C. My preference would probably be Arcia being the black hole with Moustakas plus a catcher covering the other two spots.

[MrTPlush]

With Shaw can they DFA him and outright to the minors? Usually with arbitration eligible players you tender or non them a contract but if they were able to DFA him who would claim him and be willing to pay him 5-6 million a year in arbitration.

travis shaw has an option remaining. it's very likely that the brewers will sign him to a split contract with a more generous minor league salary than that of similar age players.

Isn't there some sort of wording in the collective bargaining that he can't make less than his previous year salary so if he is on the 40 man he would still be making $5 million a year even if he was optioned?

 

20% paycut rule

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You can question whether or not he was upset...which he was and I am sure unhappy. Who wouldn't? You think he just happily sat on the AAA bus all year? I would expect him to. I would also 100% expect him to bolt instead of staying here to get sporadic playing time. Again, I wouldn't blame him and I would expect him to. Why would he stay if we sign Moustakas? That makes zero sense on his end. He could find a way more promising situation to be in I am sure. Gotta be a bad team willing to roll the dice on a guy who was one of the better 3B for two years of the last three. The Brewers may not have it in the budget or time to figure out if he can rebound. Why would he like being a part time player in September? This is just common sense.

 

I am sorry, but I am sure he wanted to be released and go elsewhere everyday to start. Why would he want to sit in the minors behind an All Star 3B? I doubt he was literally demanding to be released or even approached the Brewers...but why would he want to stay in a situation with no opportunity?

 

Travis Shaw isn't an idiot. He knows why he was playing in AAA, and that it was 100% his doing.

[MrTPlush]

You can question whether or not he was upset...which he was and I am sure unhappy. Who wouldn't? You think he just happily sat on the AAA bus all year? I would expect him to. I would also 100% expect him to bolt instead of staying here to get sporadic playing time. Again, I wouldn't blame him and I would expect him to. Why would he stay if we sign Moustakas? That makes zero sense on his end. He could find a way more promising situation to be in I am sure. Gotta be a bad team willing to roll the dice on a guy who was one of the better 3B for two years of the last three. The Brewers may not have it in the budget or time to figure out if he can rebound. Why would he like being a part time player in September? This is just common sense.

 

I am sorry, but I am sure he wanted to be released and go elsewhere everyday to start. Why would he want to sit in the minors behind an All Star 3B? I doubt he was literally demanding to be released or even approached the Brewers...but why would he want to stay in a situation with no opportunity?

 

Travis Shaw isn't an idiot. He knows why he was playing in AAA, and that it was 100% his doing.

 

Where did I say that? Didn’t say that.

[adambr2]

You can question whether or not he was upset...which he was and I am sure unhappy. Who wouldn't? You think he just happily sat on the AAA bus all year? I would expect him to. I would also 100% expect him to bolt instead of staying here to get sporadic playing time. Again, I wouldn't blame him and I would expect him to. Why would he stay if we sign Moustakas? That makes zero sense on his end. He could find a way more promising situation to be in I am sure. Gotta be a bad team willing to roll the dice on a guy who was one of the better 3B for two years of the last three. The Brewers may not have it in the budget or time to figure out if he can rebound. Why would he like being a part time player in September? This is just common sense.

 

I am sorry, but I am sure he wanted to be released and go elsewhere everyday to start. Why would he want to sit in the minors behind an All Star 3B? I doubt he was literally demanding to be released or even approached the Brewers...but why would he want to stay in a situation with no opportunity?

 

Because being released would have been zero financial and career gain for him. I'm sure he didn't like being optioned, but it cost him nothing. How do you know he gets a guaranteed starting opportunity elsewhere if released?

 

How do you know he didn't prefer to stay where he's comfortable, hope to put it together in AAA and maybe get tendered in 2020 and be the presumably starting 3B next year it Moose signs elsewhere? Moose is going to be a FA. Maybe he's back, maybe he isn't. It's not like we signed him to a 5 year deal.

 

We have no idea beyond blind speculation what Travis Shaw thought was best for him and his career this summer, and it has nothing to do with common sense. I'm sure Travis Shaw is able to look bigger picture than neccesarily wanting to start his whole career over just because he wasn't going to be a starter this year for the last few months.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You can question whether or not he was upset...which he was and I am sure unhappy. Who wouldn't? You think he just happily sat on the AAA bus all year? I would expect him to. I would also 100% expect him to bolt instead of staying here to get sporadic playing time. Again, I wouldn't blame him and I would expect him to. Why would he stay if we sign Moustakas? That makes zero sense on his end. He could find a way more promising situation to be in I am sure. Gotta be a bad team willing to roll the dice on a guy who was one of the better 3B for two years of the last three. The Brewers may not have it in the budget or time to figure out if he can rebound. Why would he like being a part time player in September? This is just common sense.

 

I am sorry, but I am sure he wanted to be released and go elsewhere everyday to start. Why would he want to sit in the minors behind an All Star 3B? I doubt he was literally demanding to be released or even approached the Brewers...but why would he want to stay in a situation with no opportunity?

 

Travis Shaw isn't an idiot. He knows why he was playing in AAA, and that it was 100% his doing.

 

Where did I say that? Didn’t say that.

 

The point I'm not so subtly referring to is that he knows why he was in AAA, and doesn't hold the team responsible for that. What I'm saying is that your narrative that he is mad at the team is a poorly thought out one.

[MrTPlush]

Actually that wasn’t my narrative at all, but carry on.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Actually that wasn’t my narrative at all, but carry on.

 

Coulda fooled me. What is it then?

I mean, you literally said this - "Rumor had it Shaw was already unhappy with us and wanted to be released instead of rotting away his year in the minors. Not to mention he didn't seem to really enjoy the part time role even in September."

 

You said right there he was unhappy with the team. Unhappy = mad, right?

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

 

Spangenberg is not a back up plan. Arcia and Shaw are....and I have said many times there will be a black hole in the line. Probably consisting of Arcia or Pina. Though I have adamantly said they should not go into the year with two of them (not including the pitcher). My bold prediction would be Pina starting and being the blackhole at C. My preference would probably be Arcia being the black hole with Moustakas plus a catcher covering the other two spots.

 

Pina is really interesting to me. His career OPS+ is 90. For a catcher that gives you good defense, that's not bad at all.

 

I feel like both Pina and Arcia are like 1-win players. Arcia gets most of that from defense. Pina has split it more evenly over his career (about .5 bREf WAR on O and D). Can you carry both? Sure. Though that gets you closer to a "stars and scrubs" approach, at least as far as your lineup is concerned.

 

If we can only have one, I'd agree on taking Pina just because he gives you slightly better ABs and has been good against lefties.

[MrTPlush]

Actually that wasn’t my narrative at all, but carry on.

 

Coulda fooled me. What is it then?

I mean, you literally said this - "Rumor had it Shaw was already unhappy with us and wanted to be released instead of rotting away his year in the minors. Not to mention he didn't seem to really enjoy the part time role even in September."

 

You said right there he was unhappy with the team. Unhappy = mad, right?

 

I personally did not say that ’right’ there. I said that was the rumor.

 

He definitely was unhappy with the situation and I really doubt he was okay being in the minors and not being able to be in the majors to prove himself. Who would? No one.

[LouisEly]

53 catchers had at least 175 PAs in 2019. Of those, Pina's .724 OPS ranked 29th.

 

Of the 28 who finished ahead of him, only 18 had at least 300 PAs. Only 11 had at least 400 PAs.

 

If those catchers were good both offensively and defensively, I would think they would have had more plate appearances (unless they were injured). Starting two out of every three games should get you 400 plate appearances and enough rest during the season. Few catchers did that.

 

My opinion - Pina is an average starting major league catcher, and the Brewers can win with him if Grandal leaves (and they invest that money elsewhere)l.