Questions for 2020

[adambr2]

Sign Pomeranz for a 2 year 6M deal (3M per)

 

I think you have to at least double the AAV here.

 

Is Lyles really going to go from a 1-yr 2M deal to a 2 yr 12M deal this offseason? You might be right, but I guess that feels awfully steep for a guy that doesn't have a long track record of success.

 

He seems to have been talking about Pomeranz and I would agree. I was thinking more like 2/13.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

He seems to have been talking about Pomeranz and I would agree. I was thinking more like 2/13.

 

I think Pomeranz, coming off a horrible year, singed with the Giants for about $3 million. I would expect him to double that as a reliever.

[Oxy]

I think they gotta go for it for one more year--just don't make any long term FA signings. Stearns and co. seem to have a great eye for diamonds in the rough (Lyles, Pomeranz, Miley, etc.)--load up on as many guys as you can in Spring Training and just work it out from there.

 

Basically a repeat strategy of this year and hope for better injury luck and fewer guys falling off a cliff.

 

The Grandal/Moose question is a huge one though...

[thebruce44]

Find a value FA signing at a position of need (C, SS, 3B, or SP). You have internal backup plans for whichever one of those positions you do not address with a FA.

[MrTPlush]

Find a value FA signing at a position of need (C, SS, 3B, or SP). You have internal backup plans for whichever one of those positions you do not address with a FA.

 

Pretty generous to say we have backup plans at either SS or 3B.

[clancyphile]

With Grisham/Gamel/Taylor, there should be no excuse for sending Cain out in 2020 when he is as banged up as he was in 2019. None.

 

And for $16 million a year, he can darn well tell CC when he is hurting beyond the normal soreness.

 

Given that you're well known for placing less than zero value on defense, I'm going to take this with a grain of small.

 

Playing hurt like he did also affected his offense.

 

Cain was not Cain. When healthy, he is a high-contact, good-OBP guy with speed and some pop.

 

Instead we saw an OPS that was awful. Yelich led the team in steals.

[shanedog19]

I have no idea what options we have at SS, but I am ready to move on from Arcia. He is what he is, a .220 hitter that swings at everything and plays great defense. It is pretty clear his plate discipline isn't going to improve going forward.

[Madhawk23]

 

He seems to have been talking about Pomeranz and I would agree. I was thinking more like 2/13.

 

I think Pomeranz, coming off a horrible year, singed with the Giants for about $3 million. I would expect him to double that as a reliever.

 

My bad - yeah, he clearly mentioned Pomeranz. Not sure why I thought he was talking about Lyles in that situation? But, I guess my argument still holds - is Pomeranz really going to go from a 1 yr 1.5M deal with the Giants to all of a sudden getting 6-6.5M per? That seems like an awfully big raise for a guy that had a couple of good months out of the pen this year? I'd probably be on board for 2 yr 8-9M type deal for him, but 12-13M seems a bit high to me.

[Baldkin]

Situational hitting has been a big problem for this team for a while now. Or inability to get a hit with RISP or just putting the ball in play with less than 2 outs and a runner at 3rd has killed us this year and is why we lost the division IMO. We strike out too much and not make pitchers work.

 

They were 4th in baseball and first in the NL in pitches per PA as hitters. They made pitchers work more than any other NL team.

[MrTPlush]

Pomeranz is going to get paid. This isn’t his first time doing great in a relief role. He has done it for over 100 innings of sub 3 ERA ball and good supporting stats.

[miggs721]

Fire Chris Hook, and get someone from the outside of the organization with a fresh set of eyes

[trwi7]

 

He seems to have been talking about Pomeranz and I would agree. I was thinking more like 2/13.

 

I think Pomeranz, coming off a horrible year, singed with the Giants for about $3 million. I would expect him to double that as a reliever.

 

My bad - yeah, he clearly mentioned Pomeranz. Not sure why I thought he was talking about Lyles in that situation? But, I guess my argument still holds - is Pomeranz really going to go from a 1 yr 1.5M deal with the Giants to all of a sudden getting 6-6.5M per? That seems like an awfully big raise for a guy that had a couple of good months out of the pen this year? I'd probably be on board for 2 yr 8-9M type deal for him, but 12-13M seems a bit high to me.

 

Anthony Swarzak never made $1 million in a season, had a great year in relief and turned it into a 2/14 contract. Now obviously that contract didn't work out but I'd be shocked if some team didn't at least go 2/10 for him and try him out as a reliever.

[wntrtxn21]

players:

-re-sign any of Pomeranz, Lyles, Grandal, and Moose? Would love to keep all 4 but Yaz is prob gone.

-Is Nelson a starter or reliever? looked good in last month's outings Let's see how he looks in AZ this summer.

-Peralta to AAA rotation, MLB rotation, or MLB pen? he's still awfully young, but loved the velocity jump MLB pen where he can use that FB

-Burnes to AAA rotation, MLB rotation, or MLB pen? AAA. He needs to figure it all out.

-Houser to rotation or 1-2 IP 6th-7th inning guy? Good question. 6th or 7th inning at least.

-Suter as 2 IP reliever or starter? By next year he could be ready to go back into the rotation.

-1b. Will it be Thames at $7.5m, Shaw at $4m, Braun, or someone else? Keep Braun at LF. I don't know about Shaw at 1st. How about Tyler Austin/Thames?

-3b. Will it be Shaw or Moose? Hopefully Moose. Shaw could be his backup or another FA.

-What kind of value does Shaw, Davies, and Anderson have on the trade market? Not much for Shaw. I'd keep Davies + Anderson - they won't cost to much.

-Perez or someone more valuable offensively? I think they like his versatility as a backup.

-is Nottingham ready to be a backup? Backup. Perhaps get another FA?

 

philosophies:

- how to improve situational hitting and have more sustained rallies

- can we add the DH? Only if we move back to AL.

-

 

Situational hitting has been a big problem for this team for a while now. Or inability to get a hit with RISP or just putting the ball in play with less than 2 outs and a runner at 3rd has killed us this year and is why we lost the division IMO. We strike out too much and not make pitchers work.

 

Contrary to popular opinion, I think Stearns has a good chance to re-sign Grandal to something like 3 for $48-49M (more than the 3 for $44M he turned down). I believe 3 for $33M get Moose back. If Nelson looks good in spring, he should be in the rotation with Gio as the alternative. Burnes once again looked horrible in his last outing and should start in AA or AAA as a starter. Peralta has become an every 3rd day pen guy. Houser has shown enough (certainly not great by any means, but enough) to get another chance at the rotation. Anderson is a low end option and should be dealt if they re-sign Lyles. Anderson is scheduled to make $8.5M and that money could be used better elsewhere. Shaw is history if Moose is re-signed and Perez is too expensive for what he brings to the team. None of those three will bring much, but it is money that could be used elsewhere. Austin also brings little or nothing and is gone. I'd like to see Stearns get Neil Walker (.261/.344) for $2M-$3M. He's a SW and can play 1B or 3B for either Thames or Moose. Imo the big thing Stearns has to do is somehow get another starter who's better than Davies or Anderson.

[TURBO]

If the best we can do is aim for Neil Walker, I don't want 2020 to get here.

[rickh150]

Signing Yaz for 3 years (with Cain and Yelich) is big. $54 mil for 3?

If Yaz is out of reach, signing Moose for 3 at $11 a year. Both cannot be done, imo.

Getting Lyles or Pomeranz would be nice at a team friendly 2 year deal.

Getting one of the pitchers is probable. Getting one of Moose or Grandal is not..

[pacopete4]

Cain has already aged enough where people should really see that signing a 30+ year old catcher for the next 3-years is a bad idea.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I don't see a lot of ways to improve by addition without Moose/Grandal.

 

I think the FO has a lot of faith in Cain, and I'm with them. Offensively, this year feels aberrational. He looked like he was pressing, swinging at low pitches he took in 2018.

 

Does the FO have the same faith in Shaw? Honestly, the best bet for another playoff run is him being a good hitter again. If Moose gets re-signed, I doubt Shaw sticks around.

 

This could be a weird offseason. I wouldn't be surprised if it contained a lot of transactions, with none of them being flashy. We are going to see a lot of Spangenberg type moves IMO. I think the FO loves its pitchers. Maybe someone at the margins gets dealt, but Nelson, Burnes, Woody, Freddy, Hauser, and the other usual suspects will get lots of chances. Knebel coming back to form would be just massive from a run-prevention standpoint. He makes Hader more valuable by a good bit.

[DHonks]

So, can someone with more knowledge on returning contracts, tell me where our total payroll would be if we did the following this offseason:

 

Sign Yaz for a 3 year, 54M deal (18M per)

Sign Moose for a 3 year, 33M deal (11M per)

Sign Lyles for a 2 year, 8M deal (4M per)

Sign Pomeranz for a 2 year 6M deal (3M per)

Decline Chase Anderson's option

Pick up Eric Thames option

Trade Travis Shaw for a lower level prospect or two

 

I know other deals would probably happen along the way, but I'm just curious where our payroll would fall compared to this past season - if we made the moves mentioned above?

 

I’d guess the Yaz number is right.

Moose is too low for an average, I’d say 3 yrs $39million minimum

Lyles will get $6-8m per year based on first 6 weeks and last 9 weeks.

Pomeranz will follow the trend for relievers and will get 3 years $18 million

[PlayerHader]

In my mind Arcia’s future hinges on C and/or 3b. If we sign Grandal and Moose, Arcia may be back. If we sign one of the two it gets foggy. If we sign neither, we have to upgrade SS offensively since we will likely be taking major steps back in those two spots offensively. C for sure anyway.

[BruisedCrew]

I think Braun has to prepare again to play first base so he can serve as a backup and platoon option for Thames.

 

I wonder if there will be room on the roster for both Gamel and Grisham, who are about as similar as they can be. It’s nice having two guys who can fill in at any of the three outfield positions, but it’s too bad they are both left handed. With their various ailments, Braun, Cain, and Yelich all need occasional time off so the Brewers need flexible backups, and can’t afford one dimensional players like Aguilar and Santana.

 

My guess is that Moustakas will be back and Shaw will be the subject of a change in scenery trade. I feel bad about that because I like Shaw, but I’m afraid he may turn out to be the second coming of Chris Davis. He might have a better chance of bouncing back somewhere else.

 

As much as I’d like to see him in the lineup again I don’t see Grandal coming back. I think there will be an active market for one of the best hitting catchers in MLB who I don’t think was anywhere near as bad defensively as he looked in last year’s playoffs.

[Outlander]

With Shaw can they DFA him and outright to the minors? Usually with arbitration eligible players you tender or non them a contract but if they were able to DFA him who would claim him and be willing to pay him 5-6 million a year in arbitration.

[liveforoctober]

I may be in the minority here but if Thames has any trade value I think we should get something for him. He was a nice surprise this season but there will be platoon-able options on the FA market that will cost the same or less and if Cain stays Braun will be getting a lot of reps at first. 1.6 WAR was great from what turned out to be an almost full time first baseman, but maybe save a bit of money and get a prospect or 5th starter type for him.

[buckybrewer232]

-Would love to have Grandal and Pomeranz back, but I think each ultimately gets priced out of Stearn's comfort level.

-Moose is more signable and gets a 3 year deal.

-With Moose back, Shaw is non tendered.

-Lyles resigned to a 2 year deal, and Anderson let go. Bring back Nelson to see what another year of recovery does.

-Option for Thames picked up.

-Sign one of Odorizzi or Zack Wheeler.

-Sign Joes Iglesias to 1 or 2 year deal to play SS.

-Find a decent LH hitting catcher to platoon with Manny.

-Sign a couple other cheap SP/RP arms for possible "bouncebacks" and see if something sticks.

-Give Braun alot of reps at 1B.

 

SP options to start the season include: Woodruff, Odorizzi/Wheeler, Davies, Lyles, Houser, Nelson, Burnes

Bullpen options: Suter, Hader, Wahl, Knebel, Black, Claudio, Peralta, Guerra, etc.

 

There is an obvious 3 year window to really go for it, so I hope MA is willing to stretch the payroll and let Stearns do his thing.

[PlayerHader]

Not sure why people are hot to give Moose a 3 year deal. It always depends on the number, but he seems like a prime candidate to break down. This year was the outlier of the past 3 offensively.

 

If his SLG ends up being a one year surge, his .310 career (.329 in this BIG past year) isn't very appetizing.

[MrTPlush]

You know how many players are having a 2019 outlier year? Juiced ball has been nuts for some. Eric Sogard had 13 homers this year despite having no more than 3 in a season before.

 

I am also really confused on how you are calling it a surge when his 2017 SLG was higher.