Questions for 2020

[DHonks]

players:

-re-sign any of Pomeranz, Lyles, Grandal, and Moose?

-Is Nelson a starter or reliever? looked good in last month's outings

-Peralta to AAA rotation, MLB rotation, or MLB pen? he's still awfully young, but loved the velocity jump

-Burnes to AAA rotation, MLB rotation, or MLB pen?

-Houser to rotation or 1-2 IP 6th-7th inning guy?

-Suter as 2 IP reliever or starter?

-1b. Will it be Thames at $7.5m, Shaw at $4m, Braun, or someone else?

-3b. Will it be Shaw or Moose?

-What kind of value does Shaw, Davies, and Anderson have on the trade market?

-Perez or someone more valuable offensively?

-is Nottingham ready to be a backup?

 

philosophies:

- how to improve situational hitting and have more sustained rallies

- can we add the DH?

-

[clancyphile]

players:

-re-sign any of Pomeranz, Lyles, Grandal, and Moose?

-Is Nelson a starter or reliever? looked good in last month's outings

-Peralta to AAA rotation, MLB rotation, or MLB pen? he's still awfully young, but loved the velocity jump

-Burnes to AAA rotation, MLB rotation, or MLB pen?

-Houser to rotation or 1-2 IP 6th-7th inning guy?

-Suter as 2 IP reliever or starter?

-1b. Will it be Thames at $7.5m, Shaw at $4m, Braun, or someone else?

-3b. Will it be Shaw or Moose?

-What kind of value does Shaw, Davies, and Anderson have on the trade market?

-Perez or someone more valuable offensively?

-is Nottingham ready to be a backup?

 

philosophies:

- how to improve situational hitting and have more sustained rallies

- can we add the DH?

-

 

My answers:

1. All four of them.

2. Nelson is a reliever. Maybe. Part of me wants to work out a release, sign him to a minor-league deal/NRI. Too many questions about him.

3. MLB pen.

4. AAA rotation

5. rotation

6. 2 IP reliever

7. Thames, with Shaw/Braun/Grandal as backups

8. Moose

9. Shaw, almost none. Davies a bit. Anderson a bit less than Davies.

10. Perez. Can make the 26-man work, especially if they have him report with pitchers and catchers.

11. Maybe, but wouldn't it be better to have Grandal/Pina as the top two catchers?

12. That is something - the Brewers need guys who can get the runner in from third, or punch a single the other way.

13. A good question... that would change things a great deal.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

players:

-re-sign any of Pomeranz, Lyles, Grandal, and Moose? I think you try to get all those guys back.

-Is Nelson a starter or reliever? looked good in last month's outings You have to give him another shot in the rotation I think, but be ready to shift him if the stuff just isn't there.

-Peralta to AAA rotation, MLB rotation, or MLB pen? he's still awfully young, but loved the velocity jump I think he's a pen guy moving forward. That isn't a knock, just where I think his stuff fits the best, in higher leverage shorter bursts.

-Burnes to AAA rotation, MLB rotation, or MLB pen? Probably AAA rotation, but he'll make big league starts next year

-Houser to rotation or 1-2 IP 6th-7th inning guy? Rotation, without a doubt.

-Suter as 2 IP reliever or starter? Multi-inning reliever. He's found his calling.

-1b. Will it be Thames at $7.5m, Shaw at $4m, Braun, or someone else? Thames and Braun I think, or a cheap RH option to platoon with Thames

-3b. Will it be Shaw or Moose? Hopefully Moose, but who knows?

-What kind of value does Shaw, Davies, and Anderson have on the trade market? Davies and Anderson were decent this year, so they could likely fetch something solid. Shaw probably isn't worth much of anything.

-Perez or someone more valuable offensively? Probably Spangenberg. Puts together better ABs

-is Nottingham ready to be a backup? Maybe. But he might be dealt if Grandal is resigned.

 

philosophies:

- how to improve situational hitting and have more sustained rallies Hiura and Grisham for full seasons will help.

- can we add the DH? Keston says "Yes please."

[DHonks]

players:

-re-sign any of Pomeranz, Lyles, Grandal, and Moose?

-Is Nelson a starter or reliever? looked good in last month's outings

-Peralta to AAA rotation, MLB rotation, or MLB pen? he's still awfully young, but loved the velocity jump

-Burnes to AAA rotation, MLB rotation, or MLB pen?

-Houser to rotation or 1-2 IP 6th-7th inning guy?

-Suter as 2 IP reliever or starter?

-1b. Will it be Thames at $7.5m, Shaw at $4m, Braun, or someone else?

-3b. Will it be Shaw or Moose?

-What kind of value does Shaw, Davies, and Anderson have on the trade market?

-Perez or someone more valuable offensively?

-is Nottingham ready to be a backup?

 

philosophies:

- how to improve situational hitting and have more sustained rallies

- can we add the DH?

-

 

My answers:

1. All four of them.

2. Nelson is a reliever. Maybe. Part of me wants to work out a release, sign him to a minor-league deal/NRI. Too many questions about him.

3. MLB pen.

4. AAA rotation

5. rotation

6. 2 IP reliever

7. Thames, with Shaw/Braun/Grandal as backups

8. Moose

9. Shaw, almost none. Davies a bit. Anderson a bit less than Davies.

10. Perez. Can make the 26-man work, especially if they have him report with pitchers and catchers.

11. Maybe, but wouldn't it be better to have Grandal/Pina as the top two catchers?

12. That is something - the Brewers need guys who can get the runner in from third, or punch a single the other way.

13. A good question... that would change things a great deal.

 

I forgot another....will JJ be back?

Pen of Pomeranz, Suter, JJ, Hader, Knebel, and others looks potentially dominant. And rotation of Woodruff, Houser, Lyles as anchors could take pressure off pen. I don't see how everyone is kept. Anderson has an option at $8.5m, and Davies likely will get a raise to around $6m. Not terribly expensive.

[3and2Fastball]

I have little faith in Mark A spending enough, and lots of faith in Stearns putting together miracle rosters with other teams' cast offs and "under valued assets"

[owbc]

If the current strategy is going to continue in perpetuity there will be a ton of roster turnover.

 

Grandal is long, long gone. Sorry, he's not going to slip through the cracks of the FA market again after a career year. Management already knows this or they would have given him more days off.

 

Pomeranz just showed off his stuff in front of a huge national TV audience. Like Grandal he's on the wrong side of 30. If someone else offers him multiple years he's gone.

 

Lyles--his success was clearly some combination of luck and skill...if management thinks it was mostly skill I bet he'll be back.

 

Moose--they could sure use him for another year...have to hope that nobody else wants to overpay for him.

[DHonks]

I have little faith in Mark A spending enough, and lots of faith in Stearns putting together miracle rosters with other teams' cast offs and "under valued assets"

 

 

I'm not sure what that means. We just set a franchise record for payroll. I anticipate it creeping higher by a little next year. Potential casualties to save money include Shaw, Thames, Davies, Anderson, and Nelson.

[adambr2]

I agree Grandal is probably long gone. He will get his 4/60 on the market this offseason.

 

Best we can hope for is retaining Moose, Lyles, and Pomeranz.

[Ennder]

You keep Nelson as a starter, that one isn't really a question. He is coming back from an injury and has shown he has a starters arsenal. The injury wasn't his arm giving out or anything either, it was flukey. It would make no sense to suddenly make him a RP unless he shows he just can't carry a starters load and it is a season or maybe two seasons too early to say that.

 

He is guaranteed to be on the team or anything but if you keep him you have to work him as a starter until he shows he isn't one.

[Greenleaf1]

I would not rule out a non-tender of Nelson. He had a few good outings at the end of the season but more or less didn't show the consistency that you'd want to see if you're going to pay him 4-5 million in arbitration. Also, even if he comes back and works out great, he'll be a FA after next season anyways. Not sure the risk of paying him to keep him around is worth the upside, but that depends on how much faith you have in Nelson. If you think he can return to starting next year and be an effective mid-rotation guy, then he's probably worth it for a year. If he's just going to be in the bullpen, there are probably cheaper options that'll give you roughly the same production.

[Pugger]

players:

-re-sign any of Pomeranz, Lyles, Grandal, and Moose? Would love to keep all 4 but Yaz is prob gone.

-Is Nelson a starter or reliever? looked good in last month's outings Let's see how he looks in AZ this summer.

-Peralta to AAA rotation, MLB rotation, or MLB pen? he's still awfully young, but loved the velocity jump MLB pen where he can use that FB

-Burnes to AAA rotation, MLB rotation, or MLB pen? AAA. He needs to figure it all out.

-Houser to rotation or 1-2 IP 6th-7th inning guy? Good question. 6th or 7th inning at least.

-Suter as 2 IP reliever or starter? By next year he could be ready to go back into the rotation.

-1b. Will it be Thames at $7.5m, Shaw at $4m, Braun, or someone else? Keep Braun at LF. I don't know about Shaw at 1st. How about Tyler Austin/Thames?

-3b. Will it be Shaw or Moose? Hopefully Moose. Shaw could be his backup or another FA.

-What kind of value does Shaw, Davies, and Anderson have on the trade market? Not much for Shaw. I'd keep Davies + Anderson - they won't cost to much.

-Perez or someone more valuable offensively? I think they like his versatility as a backup.

-is Nottingham ready to be a backup? Backup. Perhaps get another FA?

 

philosophies:

- how to improve situational hitting and have more sustained rallies

- can we add the DH? Only if we move back to AL.

-

 

Situational hitting has been a big problem for this team for a while now. Or inability to get a hit with RISP or just putting the ball in play with less than 2 outs and a runner at 3rd has killed us this year and is why we lost the division IMO. We strike out too much and not make pitchers work.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I would not rule out a non-tender of Nelson. He had a few good outings at the end of the season but more or less didn't show the consistency that you'd want to see if you're going to pay him 4-5 million in arbitration. Also, even if he comes back and works out great, he'll be a FA after next season anyways. Not sure the risk of paying him to keep him around is worth the upside, but that depends on how much faith you have in Nelson. If you think he can return to starting next year and be an effective mid-rotation guy, then he's probably worth it for a year. If he's just going to be in the bullpen, there are probably cheaper options that'll give you roughly the same production.

 

$4-5 million is pretty much second-tier reliever FA money I think. If I'm Stearns, I'm willing to gamble that on the perceived upside that Nelson brings. I don't think the progress is what the Brewers had hoped, but at the end, Nelson finally began to look similar to the 2017 version. He will be an interesting one to monitor this offseason.

[BuckyBrewer61]

I agree Grandal is probably long gone. He will get his 4/60 on the market this offseason.

 

Best we can hope for is retaining Moose, Lyles, and Pomeranz.

 

Grandal pretty much earned the max he possibly can this year, he was fantastic. And I’m guessing he has priced himself out for the Brewers.

 

That said, the days of a 4-year deal for a 30-year old catcher may be gone. The Brewers should be able to offer a competitive 2-year deal, or maaaaybe a 3 year if they want to pair him with Yeli for the extent of his contract. And IMO you offer him a little extra even if that means no Moose

[MrTPlush]

If Nelson comes back he is the long man in the pen. Early struggles and you dump him. He won't be cheap, BUUUT maybe we could swing it. We are getting high in the payroll department though. May not be worth the risk.

[Pugger]

I agree Grandal is probably long gone. He will get his 4/60 on the market this offseason.

 

Best we can hope for is retaining Moose, Lyles, and Pomeranz.

 

Grandal pretty much earned the max he possibly can this year, he was fantastic. And I’m guessing he has priced himself out for the Brewers.

 

That said, the days of a 4-year deal for a 30-year old catcher may be gone. The Brewers should be able to offer a competitive 2-year deal, or maaaaybe a 3 year if they want to pair him with Yeli for the extent of his contract. And IMO you offer him a little extra even if that means no Moose

 

Perhaps he won't get a huge deal because he is now 30. And he seems to like it in Milwaukee. Ya never know. But I don't want to lose Moose either. Do we have anyone else to take his place? I don't want Perez starting and lord knows if Shaw will ever get it back.

 

I really want Lyles and Pomeranz back. They were great.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Also, not really a player acquisition/placement question, but an absolutely huge question mark in 2020 will be:

 

Can Lorenzo Cain return to form offensively? He was a gold glover in the OF but he was flat out not very good offensively, and not just after he got hurt. Carried a sub .700 OPS for the last 4 months of the season. I am actually shocked to see an offensive WAR of 1.0 for him on baseball reference.

 

He was such a huge offensive piece of the 2018 team, and needs to be again if this team is to contend in 2020.

[Pugger]

Also, not really a player acquisition/placement question, but an absolutely huge question mark in 2020 will be:

 

Can Lorenzo Cain return to form offensively? He was a gold glover in the OF but he was flat out not very good offensively, and not just after he got hurt. Carried a sub .700 OPS for the last 4 months of the season. I am actually shocked to see an offensive WAR of 1.0 for him on baseball reference.

 

He was such a huge offensive piece of the 2018 team, and needs to be again if this team is to contend in 2020.

 

I'm gonna guess he was a lot more beat up this year than anyone was letting on.

[Madhawk23]

Would a 3-year 54M deal get it done with Yaz? Is that worth it to everyone here, or do you think that's just too much for the Brewers to pay a catcher for the next few seasons? We've got Feliciano and Henry coming through the system, but those two guys are at least 2-3 years out still, and our current window to win is now. I'd love to get Yaz on a 2 year deal, but I doubt that gets it done.

 

If we don't sign Yaz, what are the backup options? And, please don't tell me it's Pina/Nottingham. What else will be out there on the F/A market at the C position this winter? Obviously, none of the options will be as good as Grandal.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I'm gonna guess he was a lot more beat up this year than anyone was letting on.

 

He had the same thumb issue that Braun has/had, which at it's worst, really dragged Ryan's numbers down for a stretch until he either got used to it or had enough nerve numbing injections to render it less of an issue. I imagine they've got a plan to address it for Cain in the offseason in addition to the knee. With hopefully better health next year, there's reason to anticipate a rebound for Lorenzo.

[clancyphile]

I'm gonna guess he was a lot more beat up this year than anyone was letting on.

 

He had the same thumb issue that Braun has/had, which at it's worst, really dragged Ryan's numbers down for a stretch until he either got used to it or had enough nerve numbing injections to render it less of an issue. I imagine they've got a plan to address it for Cain in the offseason in addition to the knee. With hopefully better health next year, there's reason to anticipate a rebound for Lorenzo.

 

With Grisham/Gamel/Taylor, there should be no excuse for sending Cain out in 2020 when he is as banged up as he was in 2019. None.

 

And for $16 million a year, he can darn well tell CC when he is hurting beyond the normal soreness.

[Madhawk23]

So, can someone with more knowledge on returning contracts, tell me where our total payroll would be if we did the following this offseason:

 

Sign Yaz for a 3 year, 54M deal (18M per)

Sign Moose for a 3 year, 33M deal (11M per)

Sign Lyles for a 2 year, 8M deal (4M per)

Sign Pomeranz for a 2 year 6M deal (3M per)

Decline Chase Anderson's option

Pick up Eric Thames option

Trade Travis Shaw for a lower level prospect or two

 

I know other deals would probably happen along the way, but I'm just curious where our payroll would fall compared to this past season - if we made the moves mentioned above?

[long ball]

I think a more organized way to discuss the roster going into the off season would be to have a few dedicated threads along the lines of but not limited to:

 

Option decisions

Arbitration decisions

Outgoing free agents

[True Blue Brew Crew]

With Grisham/Gamel/Taylor, there should be no excuse for sending Cain out in 2020 when he is as banged up as he was in 2019. None.

 

And for $16 million a year, he can darn well tell CC when he is hurting beyond the normal soreness.

 

Given that you're well known for placing less than zero value on defense, I'm going to take this with a grain of salt.

[trwi7]

Sign Pomeranz for a 2 year 6M deal (3M per)

 

I think you have to at least double the AAV here.

[Madhawk23]

Sign Pomeranz for a 2 year 6M deal (3M per)

 

I think you have to at least double the AAV here.

 

Is Lyles really going to go from a 1-yr 2M deal to a 2 yr 12M deal this offseason? You might be right, but I guess that feels awfully steep for a guy that doesn't have a long track record of success.

 

And, honestly - at that rate, I'm not sure if he'd be worth the risk?