2019-10-01 (NL Wild Card Game): Brewers (Woodruff) at Nationals (Scherzer) 7:08 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 4-3 -- Nationals score 3 runs in 8th inning; Heartbreaking end to 2019]

[rcc]

Woodruff with a good game with some timely hitting and they move on. A lot of baseball people didn't give the Brewers a chance to get this far but here we are. Cubbies watch on tv with no manager. Go Brewers!

[sveumrules]

Corbin, Scherzer and Strasburg. They have three star pitchers that can all go any length of time as long as they look good, which they are more likely to do than our guys. I don't think saying they are better suited than us for a one-game playoff, on paper, is even a remotely controversial thing to say.

 

Their bullpen sucks, and they most likely don't need to use it at all tonight.

 

The Brewers aren't the favorite in this game for a reason.

 

The Nationals are the favorite because they won more games during the 162 game regular season, that does not mean they are built better for a one game playoff.

 

Pitchers likely to throw tonight & their ERA-/FIP- since August 1st...

 

Scherzer 106/83

Strasburg 76/87

Corbin 73/92

Hudson 32/78

 

Woodruff 0/10

Suter 11/54

Pomeranz 54/60

Lyles 57/102

Hader 77/82

 

The Nationals have a definite advantage, but I believe it is overstated because people are more familiar with the names of their pitchers.

[KeithStone53151]

One way I choose to optimistically look at the Nats pitching situation...they are pretty much going to live and die by how Scherzer looks tonight. If Woodruff isn't sharp, quick hook and in comes someone else...probably before big run totals get posted. If Scherzer allows 2 or 3 runs in the first couple innings, there's just no way they pull him. While Scherzer is certainly capable of flipping the switch at any moment and being a superstar, I like that he's been struggling lately. Provides a bit more hope. So if Scherzer isn't sharp tonight, it will probably be 4-5 runs before that Nats do anything. By then it would probably be too late.

 

What? If he looks awful he will most definitely get pulled. It's not like they need him to 6. They are trying to win one game just like us.

 

Maybe it's just me, but I feel like it would be very difficult for a manager to pull someone like Max Scherzer in the 3rd inning if he's in a 2 on 2 out situation and already allowed a couple runs. It of course is probably smart, but I'm just not sure they'd make that move. I could of course be wrong, but I feel like that would be a reeeeeeeeally tough move to explain later. Especially if whatever reliever he picked allowed the next guy to hit a HR or something(I assume Strasburg wouldn't come in in the middle of an inning...probably use a matchup reliever to get the out and let Stras start the 4th).

[long ball]

I expect the Brewers to win. I'll be heartbroken if they don't.

 

3-2 Brewers.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Good thing my feelings count for nothing because I have a bad feeling about this one. They really achieved more than I could have ever hoped for in September and I wrote this season off at many different times, but I think at some point the injuries and weaknesses of the team become too much. I don't think they are really built for a game like this against a team that very much is. Of course, it's one game, so they always have a shot, but I am not expecting much tonight. My guy feeling is a 9-1 whipping or something.

 

If they do win I'll probably pick them as the upset special to take out LAD. I really hope I can get to at least one more game at Miller Park this year.

 

Wow, I'm glad your feelings don't count as well. Not a lot of hope to be found there.

[brooks_quichenick]

Salvage game, let's get this one!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

One way I choose to optimistically look at the Nats pitching situation...they are pretty much going to live and die by how Scherzer looks tonight. If Woodruff isn't sharp, quick hook and in comes someone else...probably before big run totals get posted. If Scherzer allows 2 or 3 runs in the first couple innings, there's just no way they pull him. While Scherzer is certainly capable of flipping the switch at any moment and being a superstar, I like that he's been struggling lately. Provides a bit more hope. So if Scherzer isn't sharp tonight, it will probably be 4-5 runs before that Nats do anything. By then it would probably be too late.

 

What? If he looks awful he will most definitely get pulled. It's not like they need him to 6. They are trying to win one game just like us.

 

Maybe it's just me, but I feel like it would be very difficult for a manager to pull someone like Max Scherzer in the 3rd inning if he's in a 2 on 2 out situation and already allowed a couple runs. It of course is probably smart, but I'm just not sure they'd make that move. I could of course be wrong, but I feel like that would be a reeeeeeeeally tough move to explain later. Especially if whatever reliever he picked allowed the next guy to hit a HR or something(I assume Strasburg wouldn't come in in the middle of an inning...probably use a matchup reliever to get the out and let Stras start the 4th).

 

Another thing to consider is that it will likely take Strasburg or Corbin longer to get warmed up than your typical reliever, so if the Brewers do start to ambush Scherzer, it'll be a little bit before he can be pulled. Don't forget that Corbin threw 94 pitches on Saturday while getting slapped around by the Indians. Throwing your huge starting pitching signing out there on 3 days rest may not be the best idea. I think he's there "in case of emergency" guy.

[NievesNoNO]

Everything points towards Washington winning this. It'll be all that much sweeter when the Crew pulls the upset. Everything was in the favor of the Brewers for game 7 last year with a 1 run lead at home and it didn't work.

 

It seems the Nationals are all but guaranteed to win, but you know what they say about guarantees:

 

"..........how do you know the Guarantee Fairy isn't a crazy glue sniffer? "Building model airplanes" says the little fairy, but we're not buying it. Next thing you know, there's money missing off the dresser and your daughter's knocked up, I seen it a hundred times."

[stoutdude04]

I had a dream last night that the game was tied 0-0 going into the 4th. I walked away for a minute and when I came back the Crew was down 9-0. I really hope that wasnt a sign of whats to come tonight!

[owbc]

Looking at the rosters it is amazing the Brewers are even in this game. The Brewers only advantage on paper is bullpen which probably won’t matter because the Nats will not use theirs.

 

But the Brewers have a fascinating roster with a game plan that gives them far better odds than the numbers would suggest. This is a fun game to watch for informed baseball fans who appreciate the unique strategy elements of single-elimination baseball with rest days on either side.

 

I think the key for the Brewers is to get on base and steal some bases, make the Nats’ pitchers face as many high stress ABs as possible. And on the road against a loud crowd you obviously want to get the lead early if possible.

 

I think with the warm/humid weather we will see lots of scoring tonight. I’m going to predict a 9-5 Brewers win. And I think Ryan Braun hits a home run to get the Brewers a lead.

[TURBO]

Good thing my feelings count for nothing because I have a bad feeling about this one. They really achieved more than I could have ever hoped for in September and I wrote this season off at many different times, but I think at some point the injuries and weaknesses of the team become too much. I don't think they are really built for a game like this against a team that very much is. Of course, it's one game, so they always have a shot, but I am not expecting much tonight. My guy feeling is a 9-1 whipping or something.

 

If they do win I'll probably pick them as the upset special to take out LAD. I really hope I can get to at least one more game at Miller Park this year.

 

How are the Nationals any more built for this game than we are?

 

We have been bullpenning to great success both this September & last September & last postseason, it is nothing new to our team, just another game.

 

The Nats bullpen is so horrendous they are probably going to throw two starters in unfamiliar roles to try & compensate, pretty out of the ordinary for them.

 

Not to mention their "ace", hasn't been very ace-y of late.

 

One way I choose to optimistically look at the Nats pitching situation...they are pretty much going to live and die by how Scherzer looks tonight. If Woodruff isn't sharp, quick hook and in comes someone else...probably before big run totals get posted. If Scherzer allows 2 or 3 runs in the first couple innings, there's just no way they pull him. While Scherzer is certainly capable of flipping the switch at any moment and being a superstar, I like that he's been struggling lately. Provides a bit more hope. So if Scherzer isn't sharp tonight, it will probably be 4-5 runs before that Nats do anything. By then it would probably be too late.

 

I think Strasburg will be ready in the wings if Scherzer shows a sign of struggle... I'm sure they would rather not go that route, but you can bet they will if they have to.

[wildcat83]

I love that baseball this time of year turns into such a chess game. The Nationals have a horrible bullpen, but we may never see it. I'm guessing they piggyback Scherzer with Corbin or Strasburg. That seems to be the one huge downfall of a 1 game series in this case. Counsel has been piecing games together a few innings at a time for a month now. Our staff should be well prepared for tonight.

 

I think that our best chance to get past the Dodgers was playing them in a 5 game series instead of 7. Hopefully we can pick up a win tonight and then take our chances vs LA in a short series.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Teams that try inserting career starters into the middle of a wild card game to give them a few innings because their regular season bullpen is a train wreck often see that strategy backfire due to putting guys in roles they simply arent accustomed to. If scherzer is pitching well, they would be better off riding him the whole game, like what the cubs did with Arrieta in their 2015 wild card game.

 

The nats arent favored because they could use Strasburg or Colvin if necessary, they are favored because they have the better roster and are playing at home. That said, the brewers' september run equips them for a game like this, where they can just empty the bullpen and substitute at will - they pretty much have to. If the nats need Strasburg to come into this game it's because Scherzer didn't dominate - which means the brewers are likely in good shape.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Strasburg and Colvin are part of the roster that is better, so yes they are the reason.

 

Look I really want the Brewers to win and think they can. But if we had those three guys this entire GT would be about how confident we are because they should all be up and ready to go at a moment's notice. I would rather have those three guys than Lyles, Suter, whatever we are throwing at the wall this week...they have been fantastic for us on this run but talent is talent.

 

It's baseball though and it's one game. Orlando Arcia could go 5-5 with 6RBI and send us to the NLDS. I just think I would rather be WAS right now than us.

[topper09er]

I just hope if they get down early this doesn't turn into a HR derby like game 7 of the NLCS last year. Hopefully they learned from that and treat every AB the same instead of everyone on the team trying to hit a 3 run HR to tie the game with no one base.

[pacopete4]

Brewers roster out as well. Includes both Cain and Braun.

 

And Travis Shaw. I'm totally here for a Travis Shaw hero moment tonight.

 

I figured he would be on it. Mentioned it in an IGT. They had been using him pretty regularly the past few weeks and he's had some good at bats. Glad he gets a chance to redeem himself. New season!

[sveumrules]

Look I really want the Brewers to win and think they can. But if we had those three guys this entire GT would be about how confident we are because they should all be up and ready to go at a moment's notice.

 

I think you are maybe misunderestimating BF.net.

 

If this were NatsFan.net right now we'd be losing our minds about how dumb Martinez is for starting Scherzer since he has been far from his dominant self of late, & fretting over how Strasburg & Corbin will do out of the bullpen since it is not the role they are accustomed to.

 

Not to mention the shadow of getting beat in the NLDS in 2012, 2014, 2016 & 2017 looming over everything.

[rcc]

Brewers roster out as well. Includes both Cain and Braun.

 

And Travis Shaw. I'm totally here for a Travis Shaw hero moment tonight.

 

I figured he would be on it. Mentioned it in an IGT. They had been using him pretty regularly the past few weeks and he's had some good at bats. Glad he gets a chance to redeem himself. New season!

 

I hope so.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I would honestly like to see Hader be the first guy out, assuming Woodruff goes 2-3, on the hope that Hader looks good and can eat 9 outs. Maybe I am being ridiculous, but that's how I would play it. And then hopefully you're bringing someone into the 6th or 7th with a few run lead. Of course, that brings letting him bat into the equation, which probably has about a 0.005% chance of happening, but maybe if you time it just right you can get at least 2 from him.

[Pugger]

Brewers roster out as well. Includes both Cain and Braun.

 

And Travis Shaw. I'm totally here for a Travis Shaw hero moment tonight.

 

I'm a little surprised to see Shaw on the postseason roster.

[Baldkin]

Teams that try inserting career starters into the middle of a wild card game to give them a few innings because their regular season bullpen is a train wreck often see that strategy backfire due to putting guys in roles they simply arent accustomed to. If scherzer is pitching well, they would be better off riding him the whole game, like what the cubs did with Arrieta in their 2015 wild card game.

 

This just isn't true. There is plenty of history of starting pitchers coming in, in relief, in the playoffs and dominating. Just last year Boston effectively used 4 different starters coming out of the pen in the playoffs - Price, Sale, Evoldi and Price.

 

I do hope you're right, though. I hope Woody hits in the first inning tonight (and the second...).

[OldSchoolSnapper]

He's a backup for injured infielders and a LHB on a one-game roster where the pitchers likely won't hit ever, so it's not all that surprising

[tmwiese55]

Yea Shaw doesn't concern me. Backs up 1B and 3B and as much as he has been bad this year. He's looked ok in his PH appearances of late, I doubt the stats look great in them but he's hit some balls hard foul, hit a HR not long ago. has worked some counts. Plus, of the other options he's probably the most likely to run into one for a HR, which of course could be needed.

[owbc]

I would honestly like to see Hader be the first guy out, assuming Woodruff goes 2-3, on the hope that Hader looks good and can eat 9 outs. Maybe I am being ridiculous, but that's how I would play it. And then hopefully you're bringing someone into the 6th or 7th with a few run lead. Of course, that brings letting him bat into the equation, which probably has about a 0.005% chance of happening, but maybe if you time it just right you can get at least 2 from him.

 

If Hader is first from the bullpen it will be with runners on base. Although if it is a left-handed hitter you can bet that CC will bring in a lefty.

[KeithStone53151]

I would honestly like to see Hader be the first guy out, assuming Woodruff goes 2-3, on the hope that Hader looks good and can eat 9 outs. Maybe I am being ridiculous, but that's how I would play it. And then hopefully you're bringing someone into the 6th or 7th with a few run lead. Of course, that brings letting him bat into the equation, which probably has about a 0.005% chance of happening, but maybe if you time it just right you can get at least 2 from him.

 

I don't hate it, I doubt it happens but I wouldn't hate that. Every out is critical and you want your best pitching while the game matters...I'm sure that's your thought. I think you still want a nail driver to close it out, I guess in your scenario that's probably Pomeranz. That curve would probably be really tough on guys trying to hit a HR if down by 1 in the 9th...tough to wait back on.