2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion

[jjfanec]

I'm really surprised by how many doubters there are already. This is playoff baseball! Absolutely anything can happen. While I expect a hard-fought, low-scoring game tomorrow, nothing would surprise me. This Brewers team truly is a Wild Card, in that it's true identity is a complete mystery.

Why would you be surprised? There have been so many times people declared this team dead. Not sure why people can't just enjoy the ride.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm really surprised by how many doubters there are already. This is playoff baseball! Absolutely anything can happen. While I expect a hard-fought, low-scoring game tomorrow, nothing would surprise me. This Brewers team truly is a Wild Card, in that it's true identity is a complete mystery.

Why would you be surprised? There have been so many times people declared this team dead. Not sure why people can't just enjoy the ride.

 

Yeah, the "I think they are bad, and will lose big, but will be happy to be wrong" predictions are just annoying.

 

I agree with you. This team has been put on the mat so many times, and has managed to get to its feet every time. Nothing they do would really surprise me anymore.

[KeithStone53151]

Yeah, the "I think they are bad, and will lose big, but will be happy to be wrong" predictions are just annoying.

 

Seconded. I really don't understand this philosophy. Is this what the cool kids are doing or something?

[liveforoctober]

Yeah, the "I think they are bad, and will lose big, but will be happy to be wrong" predictions are just annoying.

 

Seconded. I really don't understand this philosophy. Is this what the cool kids are doing or something?

 

Built in depression protection. If they lose "This is what I expected", if they win "OH MY GOSH HOW AMAZING!".

 

It's a defense.

[yourout]

Yeah, the "I think they are bad, and will lose big, but will be happy to be wrong" predictions are just annoying.

 

Seconded. I really don't understand this philosophy. Is this what the cool kids are doing or something?

 

Built in depression protection. If they lose "This is what I expected", if they win "OH MY GOSH HOW AMAZING!".

 

It's a defense.

 

I call it the Ted Thompson syndrome. After years of conditioning you expect the worst and hope for the best.

I have it as well.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yeah, the "I think they are bad, and will lose big, but will be happy to be wrong" predictions are just annoying.

 

Seconded. I really don't understand this philosophy. Is this what the cool kids are doing or something?

 

Built in depression protection. If they lose "This is what I expected", if they win "OH MY GOSH HOW AMAZING!".

 

It's a defense.

 

Not really. I don't know what I would be defending against. It's pretty unreasonable to actually expect them to win Tuesday. They could because it is one game, but I have no expectation of them winning. They were .500 all year, had an anomaly month and then got swept by an awful team at the very end. I do call BS on the Nationals being "exponentially better." They're not. The best player on our mildly above average team is the best player in the league and we don't have him.

 

My hunch is just that our fumes are running low and an elite talent like Scherzer will shut us down. But Woodruff is also good enough that he's capable of a 7IP shutout and a HR. Nobody actually knows but I would never bet on the Brewers tomorrow.

 

The only dumb reason I have optimism is that Nationals are due for a loss and we just got swept.

[rcc]

I'm happy they are still playing. After losing Christian I had my doubts. Getting swept in Colorado was embarrassing but before that series the team pulled together and here we are. CC has his moments but I believe he should be manager of the year. He really deserves it with all the things he had to deal with this year.

[josh]

Yeah, the "I think they are bad, and will lose big, but will be happy to be wrong" predictions are just annoying.

 

Seconded. I really don't understand this philosophy. Is this what the cool kids are doing or something?

 

My brain says "no" but my heart says "maybe?".

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Not really. I don't know what I would be defending against. It's pretty unreasonable to actually expect them to win Tuesday. They could because it is one game, but I have no expectation of them winning. They were .500 all year, had an anomaly month and then got swept by an awful team at the very end. I do call BS on the Nationals being "exponentially better." They're not. The best player on our mildly above average team is the best player in the league and we don't have him.

 

My hunch is just that our fumes are running low and an elite talent like Scherzer will shut us down. But Woodruff is also good enough that he's capable of a 7IP shutout and a HR. Nobody actually knows but I would never bet on the Brewers tomorrow.

 

The only dumb reason I have optimism is that Nationals are due for a loss and we just got swept.

 

I expect them to win tomorrow because, this last weird series withstanding, the Brewers are the hottest team in the majors. And you're right, Scherzer is an elite talent. But he's also 35, and has been slapped around pretty good all month. Could he bear down and dominate the Brewers tomorrow? Sure. But I also think it's just as likely he gives up 4 runs in 4 2/3 innings. The Brewers are a dangerous team in this postseason because no one really expects anything out of them.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Max will be yanked as soon as there are two guys on base though. They have more blue chip arms who are far less likely to fart and they can keep throwing them out there. Anything is possible but I think if the Brewers win it's going to be because Woodruff and the pen did their job. 2-1, 3-2, 1-0, etc. Doubt the Brewers score 9 runs tomorrow as that would mean they lit up multiple TOR arms.

[pacopete4]

I'm really surprised by how many doubters there are already.

 

For me, it comes down to what lineup we can put out there. We are already on our B-lineup without Yelich. If we have to go to our our C-lineup, it might be a long day for us.

 

Grisham- RF

Grandal- C

Moose- 3B

Hiura- 2B

Braun- LF

Thames- 1B

Cain- CF

Arcia- SS

 

If we can get this out there against him, I'll say we have a punchers chance at it.

[sveumrules]

ZIPS has it as 57% Washington / 43% Milwaukee, BRef has it 61/39 & 538 has it 64/36, for whatever that is or isn't worth.

 

The Nats proved over 162, by both wins & run differential, that they are the better team, they aren't missing their best player, they are playing at home, they should be favored.

 

Last year we won the most games in the NL, there were plenty of doubters, but we still managed to get within a game of the World Series.

 

This year we won the fewest games in the NL postseason field, there are still plenty of doubters, maybe even more, but baseball is weird, life is weird. A 36-43ish % chance is actually kinda good when compared to numerous other odds the team has already overcome throughout the season.

[TURBO]

But Woodruff is also good enough that he's capable of a 7IP shutout and a HR.

 

Nope, not on Tuesday. There is no chance, 0% that he is allowed to pitch 7 innings, not to mention, he doesn't have the stamina built up even if they wanted him to go 7.

 

If we get a solid 3 innings we will be doing great!

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Inning by inning and out by out.

 

That's how these games are run, and I see no reason why our pitchers can't put up one scoreless frame at a time.

 

We won't and shouldn't be favored, but bullpen-ing is a powerful strategy for a reason, and we've basically been doing it for two years. If there's some advantage, it's that we'll hopefully be more ready to throw 1, 2, 3 innings at a time than anyone on the Nats staff, especially Strasburg.

[young guns]

But Woodruff is also good enough that he's capable of a 7IP shutout and a HR.

 

Nope, not on Tuesday. There is no chance, 0% that he is allowed to pitch 7 innings, not to mention, he doesn't have the stamina built up even if they wanted him to go 7.

 

If we get a solid 3 innings we will be doing great!

[sarcasm]I would say 6 3 pitch inning might get him there.[/sarcasm]

 

Does anyone besides the diehardiest of diehard twins fans think they will win 1 game vs the yankees.

[tmwiese55]

Of course WAS should be favored, no doubt about it. But one game of baseball so anything can happen.

 

Positive look at this that you should be able to cover 5 innings between Woodruff/Hader alone. I'd guess Pomeranz is our next most trusted and can go 2. Should be able to have at least 7 innings of really strong pitching to make this a game. Just can't have one of those three have a blowup game/inning on this day and they should be in this thing.

[Underachiever]

I'm really surprised by how many doubters there are already. This is playoff baseball! Absolutely anything can happen. While I expect a hard-fought, low-scoring game tomorrow, nothing would surprise me. This Brewers team truly is a Wild Card, in that it's true identity is a complete mystery.

Why would you be surprised? There have been so many times people declared this team dead. Not sure why people can't just enjoy the ride.

 

Yeah, the "I think they are bad, and will lose big, but will be happy to be wrong" predictions are just annoying.

 

I agree with you. This team has been put on the mat so many times, and has managed to get to its feet every time. Nothing they do would really surprise me anymore.

Also agree. So many Smartest Guys in the Room here. I just want the Brewers to win. I'm in LA, and there is a lot of the same type of gloom and doom about losing in the playoffs here as well.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

But Woodruff is also good enough that he's capable of a 7IP shutout and a HR.

 

Nope, not on Tuesday. There is no chance, 0% that he is allowed to pitch 7 innings, not to mention, he doesn't have the stamina built up even if they wanted him to go 7.

 

If we get a solid 3 innings we will be doing great!

 

That wasn't supposed to be a scientific prediction of where his stamina is, just that he has the talent to go toe-to-toe with any SP on a good day.

[KeithStone53151]

This is a good read and pretty fair. Im not so sure it's fair to say nats have a big advantage at 3b and lf...a decent advantage probably but it's somewhat close. I also think hiura won't at all be impacted by the moment. https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-nationals-position-by-position

[KeithStone53151]

As for the Brewers WC roster I'm guessing.

 

Positional - Grandal, Pina, Thames, Hiura, Arcia, Moose, Spang, Perez, Shaw/Austin, Grisham, Gamel, Braun, Cain, Taylor

Pitchers - Woodruff, Suter, Lyles, Pomeranz, Hader, Jackson, Claudio, Guerra, Freddy, Black, Anderson.

 

Really I think they try to get this game done with the first 5 pitchers on the list. Anderson is here as the last arm available in case it goes to extras. I could see either Lyles or Woodruff starting. It might be smart to stagger and have Suter pitch between Lyles and Woodruff so they can't simply stack LH hitters and switch to stacking RH hitters for later innings against Suter/Pomeranz/Hader. Any pitchers used beyond the top 5 will be very limited amount of batters and very matchup based. Claudio would probably face only one lefty(more than one if they happen to be stacked, but definitely never a RH hitter), Jackson/Freddy/Black would be primarily against RH batters. Guerra might get a full inning.

 

I would do a lineup of...

 

Grisham

Grandal

Braun

Moose

Hiura

Thames

Cain

Arcia

P

 

I expect they'll stick with Moose hitting 3rd and go Hiura/Thames/Braun behind. It would definitely be better to stagger RH and LH along with sliding Braun up with the way he's been hitting though.

[MrTPlush]

Yah not sure what is going on here. I wasn't even claiming to say they were going to lose or that I was prepping with zero expectations for Tuesday. Now everyone is acting like I was claiming to be "the smartest in the room". For the record I was arguably one of if not the most optimistic person here when Yelich went down. Pointing out he was only one person and we already had a better record without him anyway. On paper it sucked, but small samples it can look like he wasn't even a help.

 

I don't think it is wrong to say it would take an absolute miracle for this team to make a run and/or make a World Series appearance....sorry that is just a fact. They are injured and their roster isn't really that good as is, at least not compared to other teams still playing. It will be a team that is largely disadvantaged for at least the one game playoff and the NLDS. I think the NLCS would be a little more of a crapshoot because I don't think Braves/Cards are that great. World Series would likely be a bad match up with another elite team (like the Dodgers).

 

I thought they could go on a run without Yelich and they could do the same in the postseason...though they will actually have to play good teams now. So they might want to play a little better than they did the last three games. Pretty sure I can still be honest and say they are at a massive disadvantage while still cheering for them though.

[brooks_quichenick]

My Wild Card Roster (assuming Braun and Cain are able to play):

 

Position Players

C - Grandal

1B - Thames

2B - Hiura

3B - Moustakas

SS - Arcia

OF - Braun

OF - Cain

OF - Grisham

Bench/Utility - Pina, Spangenberg, Perez, Gamel, Taylor, Shaw

 

Pitchers

Woodruff

Lyles

Suter

Peralta

Hader

Pomeranz

Guerra

Jackson

Claudio

Anderson

Davies

 

 

Anderson and Davies would be extra innings insurance, and Shaw - although terrible offensively this year - can play 2 positions well if needed for a double switch, unlike Austin - who also isn't a good hitter. Since we'll most likely be seeing all right-handed pitching (Scherzer and Strasburg + maybe Hudson, Doolittle being the only real lefty unless they throw Corbin on short rest), can't hurt to have another lefty bat.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yah not sure what is going on here. I wasn't even claiming to say they were going to lose or that I was prepping with zero expectations for Tuesday. Now everyone is acting like I was claiming to be "the smartest in the room". For the record I was arguably one of if not the most optimistic person here when Yelich went down. Pointing out he was only one person and we already had a better record without him anyway. On paper it sucked, but small samples it can look like he wasn't even a help.

 

I don't think it is wrong to say it would take an absolute miracle for this team to make a run and/or make a World Series appearance....sorry that is just a fact. They are injured and their roster isn't really that good as is, at least not compared to other teams still playing. It will be a team that is largely disadvantaged for at least the one game playoff and the NLDS. I think the NLCS would be a little more of a crapshoot because I don't think Braves/Cards are that great. World Series would likely be a bad match up with another elite team (like the Dodgers).

 

I thought they could go on a run without Yelich and they could do the same in the postseason...though they will actually have to play good teams now. So they might want to play a little better than they did the last three games. Pretty sure I can still be honest and say they are at a massive disadvantage while still cheering for them though.

 

If the Brewers win Tuesday, and proceed to go on a run, it is far from a miracle. It's just baseball.

 

And saying that it would take a miracle and calling that a fact is somewhat contradictory, and comes off as a little combative in my opinion. You are more than entitled to your opinion on why you feel this team has the odds stacked against it in the playoffs, but I certainly understand why people read what you said and found it to be defeatist. .

[KeithStone53151]

Just a reminder that the Brewers kinda punted on the game yesterday. They pulled all their good players when the Cardinals got a big lead and realized this game certainly wouldn't matter. I would bet the house that if we used our top relievers yesterday, we win that game. Friday was a stinker(we were overdue for one), Saturday we lose in large part due to a couple Colorado-only HR. Scherzer also hasn't been excessively sharp over his last few outings. 17 earned runs and 6 HR in 5 September outings. He's also pretty stubborn about wanting to stay in the game, so it's not like Martinez is going to be able to easily pull him if he allows a couple runs over in the first 3-4 innings.

 

I'm well aware one could easily poke holes and put seeds of doubt into all the reasons for optimism I listed above. Main point is there is plenty of legit reason for optimism. Also it's one game. The very worst team in baseball would probably win 3 of 10 in a best on best game against the Nationals. I would put us somewhere between 42 and 45 percent chance to win as it stands now. Cross our fingers and hope for the best.

[KeithStone53151]

Anderson and Davies would be extra innings insurance, and Shaw - although terrible offensively this year - can play 2 positions well if needed for a double switch, unlike Austin - who also isn't a good hitter. Since we'll most likely be seeing all right-handed pitching (Scherzer and Strasburg + maybe Hudson, Doolittle being the only real lefty unless they throw Corbin on short rest), can't hurt to have another lefty bat.

 

I've read that Corbin is available out of the bullpen if needed. That's part of why I think Austin over Shaw. We'll have Spang/Gamel available off the bench already. I think I'd rather have Austin PH in the 8th inning against Corbin/Doolittle over Perez. There really isn't a wrong answer though. I'll add, I think the Brewers will be in a fantastic place if either Doolittle or Hudson pitches tomorrow(that or losing by 8 runs and completely toast). Washington has to be thinking Scherzer for at least 5 with Corbin/Stras finishing if the game is close. Even if Corbin is just a decoy, they could easily do 6 and 3 or 5 and 4 with their 2 horses. Both are better options than Hudson/Doolittle.