JJ vs. Billy

[endaround]

How about the fact that comparing the game in 2006 to the game in 1990 is foolish? The point is the right now there is no discernable difference between 2B and CF so Weeks would be the same above average hitter both places. That he wouldn't have been in 1991 makes no difference. Sample size only matters when drawing from the same distribution.

[1992casey]

Here the CF and 2B OPSs for both leagues combined since 1997.

 

I didn't arbitrarily choose the years; when Baseball Prospectus wouldn't load 1996, I stopped.

 

By the way, thanks (not), Baseball Prospectus, for your new funky, non-intuitive positional averages format. I'm not exaggerating. It's really, truly, difficult to use. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

 [b][u]Year[/u] [u]2B OPS[/u] [u]CF OPS[/u] [u]CF minus 2B[/u][/b]
1997 0.734 0.758 0.024
1998 0.729 0.762 0.033
1999 0.761 0.786 0.026
2000 0.751 0.785 0.034
2001 0.738 0.759 0.022
2002 0.714 0.754 0.040
2003 0.736 0.760 0.024
2004 0.741 0.771 0.030
2005 0.745 0.755 0.010
2006 0.732 0.739 0.007

2006 is a ridiculously small sample, of course, and I don't know what difference might be significant. I'll leave that up to someone else.

[rluzinski]

His post adds to the stats mothership provided rather than refuting them.

 

Exactly. I was merely adding to the data presented, which happened to also be the most current and therefore relevant.

 

The defensive spectrum is about the perceived relative difficulty and importance of defensive at each position. As such, as the game changes and managers continuously reevaluate the value of defense at each position, you?ll see changes to the defensive spectrum. Dan Fox looked at how the defensive spectrum changed throughout the history of baseball:

 

1900-1910

[ OF - 2B - 1B - 3B - SS - C ]

 

1911-1930

[ OF - 1B - 2B - 3B - C - SS ]

 

1931-1972

[ 1B - OF - 3B - C - 2B - SS ]

 

1973-1995

[ DH - 1B - OF - 3B - C - 2B - SS]

 

1996-2003

[ DH - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - C - 2B - SS]

 

The spectrum is not statistic, nor its order absolute. It?s just a guideline and right now, it appears managers value defense at 2B only slightly more than at CF. Considering the higher value an average play in the OF has over an average IF play, I can appreciate why.

 

Here?s the Dan Fox articles on the subject:

 

Defensive Spectrum

 

Defensive Spectrum Redux

 

Defensive Spectrum Again

[1992casey]

Thanks for pointing out the Dan Fox stuff. I remember reading it before, but I didn't remember where.

 

It almost seems like we need more than one spectrum: one based on offense, one based on current defensive value, and the one by Bill James. It looks to me like James' spectrum still matches up the best to the ease or difficulty of moving players to another position.

[rluzinski]

Bill James' is based on offense. The one you sight is just from about 2 decades ago.

[1992casey]

I was under the impression that it was based on defense, as catcher and DH weren't included. I'm not here to argue, of course. I just want to get it right when it's time to explain the concept the next time around. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[rluzinski]

I was under the impression that it was based on defense, as catcher and DH weren't included.

 

It's supposed to be the same thing (I think):

 

Harder (perceived) defensive position = smaller pool of players to draw from = less average offense.

 

I can't seem to find a direct quote from James but I thought that was the underlying principle of the defensive spectrum. I could be completely wrong, however, since I don't have the abstract where James' introduced the concept.

 

Another way to look at it could be that a good defender's value is maximized at a harder position and the more def. value, the less offensive that's needed. I guess that would be the "defense based" way of looking at it.

[mothershipconnection]

How about the fact that comparing the game in 2006 to the game in 1990 is foolish?

Is comparing 2004 and 2006 foolish as well? The gap closed last year and has remained that way this year. That disparate offensive production has historically come from the two positions hasn't changed. I'll take the nearly 18 years before 2005 as a better indicator than the last 14 months. One year means nothing more than a couple guys having flukes or going down to injury.

[rluzinski]

I agree, motherloveship. I'd probably use the last 3 years or so. Of course, the defensive spectrum is just a guideline anyway.

[mothershipconnection]

Of course, the defensive spectrum is just a guideline anyway.

I agree. Even if the difficulty of playing the positions is equal, though, 2B has still historically been a position that has provided less offense.