JJ vs. Billy

[Blazer25]

Quote:

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They'd be better off just ignoring stats altogether

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Blasphemy!

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[monty57]

I found good splits on ESPN.com.

 

This year:

 

(AB, HR, AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS)

Total 129, 9, .295, .343, .628, .971

vs. LH 34, 6, .412, .474, 1.000, 1.474

vs. RH 95, 3, .253, .294, .495, .789

 

2005

Total 501, 17, .291, .342, .495, .837

vs. LH 125, 3, .336, .407, .560, .967

vs. RH 376, 14, .277, .319, .473, .793

 

I know the "be wary of small sample" argument. I mentioned the splits because I thought I remembered that he hit lefties better than righties last year. Now, while there appears to be a discrepency between LH and RH, I must note that (1) he's young and there still is only 630 AB in this sample, and (2) hitting near .800 OPS vs. RH for someone who plays four positions relatively well is pretty good. The reason for the discrepency is that he simply destroys left handers!

 

For sake of how he did in 2004 to compare him experience wise with where JJ is at now:

 

Total 390, 9, .238, .276, .374, .650

vs. LH 105, 3, .190, .239, .333, .572

vs. RH 285, 6, .256, .290, .389, .679

 

Hardy ought to be able to cover that pretty well.

 

I guess I believe that SS is Hardy's position. Billy will continue to spell him once a week or so. However, Billy cannot sit on the bench too often. I think Yost is doing a good job with his personnel this year, and, since injuries do happen, it makes someone like Billy even more valuable.

[hauser42]

I am continuously amazed about how ignorant the FSN crew is about small samples. Every April and May, the tv guys are just amazed by some insane split that just destroys logic. last year it was the fact that Jenkins magically started hitting lefties. Bill even had some ridiculous theory behind why Jenkins learned how to hit them. They'd be better off just ignoring stats altogether until after the all star b.[/i]

 

This not being ignorant in any way. They are just showing the facts of the game being played. Bill Hall has not been hitting right handers at this time. It doesn't matter how small the sample size is. It was a factoid to how Bill Hall's season has been going.

 

Broadcasting at any level tries to bring out facts that may make the game interesting and tell the stories that go along with the game being played. They have all this research and pull up these things to help the fans better understand certain parts of the game.So if the Brewers are 0-20 in the 8th inning with 2 outs and runners on base we should disregard that stat?

[1992casey]

I'll toss in one more stat just because I remember it. Career-wise, coming into the season, Billy's OPSs vs. lefties and righties were both almost exactly .760. I don't remember which one had the slight edge. I don't think we could easily find those exact numbers right now, and I'm too lazy to pull out a calculator.

 

I do remember the reason I looked it up. It had to do with a worst case scenario in a Hall-Koskie platoon. .760 or so is much better than Corey's recent years vs. lefties.

 

Anyhoo, getting back on subject, Billy may well be a better hitter vs. lefties, but I wouldn't expect the split to be so dramatic as time goes on.

[endaround]

Quote:

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Broadcasting at any level tries to bring out facts that may make the game interesting and tell the stories that go along with the game being played. They have all this research and pull up these things to help the fans better understand certain parts of the game.So if the Brewers are 0-20 in the 8th inning with 2 outs and runners on base we should disregard that stat?

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Yes. If you are using stats to describe pst events, thats fine. But you can't use such stats to predict future occurances. Just like believing Lee will slug over 600 for the season because he currently is sluggin over 600 is foolish, so it pretending that because the Brewers are bad in 20 ABs means they are bad forever is foolish.

[hauser42]

I have never heard a broadcaster say they could predict what was going to happen based on the stats.

 

My point is that the broadcasters are giving you some history to the events taking place. So if Bill Hall has a big night against the right handed pitcher it has not been the norm for this season.

 

Cannot see calling the FSN staff ignorant for doing good of prep work for a baseball game. I worked in the broadcast industry for 5 years after college. It takes a lot of time to be prepared for a live sporting event in front and behind the camera.

 

It was a true fact that Bill Hall's splits were very lopsided. Doesn't matter how small the sample size was, it was is production. Sometimes people that love certain players hate to see anything bad written or said about them.

[1992casey]

I have no problem with any stat that's presented. The problem occurs when inappropriate meaning is attached to it.

 

Heck, just about every stat is good for trivia purposes. I remember the TV guys pimping Omar Vizquel's birthday batting average last year. Stuff like that is fine as long as you don't try to make something of it.

[mothershipconnection]

So are you willing to give up JJ's glove for Billy's bat when we already do that at 2 other infield positions?

If Hall displaces any middle infielder, it's gonna be Weeks, as Hall isn't a great SS, but is a decent 2B, plus Weeks is obviously the most likely infielder to need a change of position.

Hall could still play center field if Weeks steps up his D. Hall's offense would still be good enough at that position (though it'd be better at 2nd or SS).

We have one more year of Clark, Koskie, and Jenkins, plus Lee will be gone this fall/winter. Thus far, we have Hall, Braun, Hart, and Cruz to fill those spots. Hall will find a home if he keeps hitting.

[endaround]

CF offense = 2B offense. There is no difference between the two. The only difference is that there are more good players at 2B with more studs (Griffey, Edmonds, etc) at CF.

[rluzinski]

I have never heard a broadcaster say they could predict what was going to happen based on the stats.

 

When they threw up Jenkin's early splits aginst lefties last year, Bill Schoeder went on to explain WHY Jenkins stats had improved against lefties (some nonsense about a mythical adjustment). Nowhere in his explanation was, "His splits are meaningless and do not represent Jenkins' actual abilities against lefties". Jenkins just had some early luck against them and his stats eventually went back in line with his career stats.

 

If they show stats just for entertainment, I find them as interesting as everyone else.

[1992casey]

I honestly think that players and former players have trouble thinking a stat can be meaningless or due to chance. (Well, they might with the birthday thing.) All Bill would really have to do is give a 'small sample size' alert.

[rluzinski]

I honestly think that players and former players have trouble thinking a stat can be meaningless or due to chance.

 

Anyone who's flipped a coin or rolled dice should be able to appreciate that stats are at least partially governed by chance.

[endaround]

Thats entirely too flip. You feel like you ahev control which makes it seem liek no chance is involved. Its more like driving. Even the best drivers can have things crash into them.

[rluzinski]

Thats entirely too flip. You feel like you ahev control which makes it seem liek no chance is involved.

 

Well, the "skill" part of flipping a coin is knowing you have a 50% chance of getting heads, just like a .300 batter has 30% chance of getting a hit. Of course, if you only flip/bat 10 times, random chance is going to have a large influence in the results.

[mothershipconnection]

2B is further left on the defensive spectrum.

The only difference is that there are more good players at 2B with more studs (Griffey, Edmonds, etc) at CF.

That's why I want him at second, as he could put up among the best numbers in the league at that position, while he couldn't in CF.

 

CF offense = 2B offense. There is no difference between the two.

A link I found stated that CF OPS from 1987-2002 was .752 while it was .721 for 2Bs. In 2003, it was .757 vs .736. This gap is bigger than the difference between 2B and C.

 

 

I personally think CF numbers are brought down by dumb management who emphasizes speedy slap hitters that steal bases, and not simply by how hard the position is. CFers seem to be forced to fit the lead-off hitter mold. I'd suggest that's why you see a couple stud players and a bunch of clowns. I'd take Vernon Wells, who has never stolen more than 9 bases in a season, over Carl Lewis or Michael Johnson in their primes in CF. There has to be quite a few guys like Brady Clark out there who could move from corner to center and not look bad.

[1992casey]

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2B is further left on the defensive spectrum.

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The defensive spectrum can cause dyslexia. Bill James set it up this way:

 

- - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - -

 

It's probably best to post it whenever we use it, just to avoid confusion.

 

At any rate, the initial purpose of the spectrum was to look at defense. That's probably why catcher was initially excluded; you can't move a catcher around like you can a shortstop.

 

Later on, people started using the it for offense, too. With offense, things tend to match up to the spectrum, but numbers can shift over time. So while CF and 2B offense are currently relatively equal offensively, you're still more apt to convert a second baseman to center field than vice versa.

[mothershipconnection]

The defensive spectrum can cause dyslexia. Bill James set it up this way:

Yeah, it seems a lot of people switch it around from hardest to easiest. Many of the sites I found that presented OPS by position also had the spectrum, and all had it from hardest to easiest, but you're right, that is how James had it set up.

[1992casey]

In his blog, Al first turned me on to the defensive spectrum a couple years ago. He used it the opposite of the way I posted it a couple messages above.

 

Then I went to another message board and someone said, "No, it's the other way!" I did a Google search, and seven sites, including A Bill James Primer, did it as I just posted. Two sites, including Al's, turned it around.

 

So I figured I should go with the majority, giving extra credit to the Bill James Primer.

 

I guess the main thing is to make sure we're doing an 'apples to apples' comparison. Otherwise, of course, the points are the same.

[Ennder]

My question would be, is Bill Hall a good SS? I see some people say he's a very good SS but I guess I just don't see it. He has good natural range and a strong arm, both pluses on his side. These lead to some really nice looking plays. However he also has an inaccurate arm, he gets bad reads off of the bat a lot of times and his double play move seems to be off. He makes dubious choices as to what to do with the ball at times as well, like throwing to the wrong bases etc. I'm still much more comfortable with Hall at 2B, 3B or even CF than I am with him at SS.

 

Maybe the negatives would work themselves out with regular play at the position, but I for one look forward to getting Hardy back.

[rluzinski]

A link I found stated that CF OPS from 1987-2002 was .752 while it was .721 for 2Bs. In 2003, it was .757 vs .736. This gap is bigger than the difference between 2B and C.

 

Just a 9 point difference between CF and 2B last year, .753 to .744.

 

I personally think CF numbers are brought down by dumb management who emphasizes speedy slap hitters that steal bases, and not simply by how hard the position is.

 

That speed is also valuable in covering alot of ground in the OF, so it's hard to say what's better or worse. Watching Griffey let balls bloop in front of him, I wonder if his offense makes up for it sometimes.

[rluzinski]

Hey look, the TV guys are making a HUGE deal out of Bush's home read splits right now. They just can't figure out why Bush has done so much better at home so far this year. Bill thinks it might have something to do with Bush feeding off the more structured routine at home.

[1992casey]

Hey, Bill, don't ya think it might have something to do with the fact that Dave has only 5 starts at home and 5 on the road? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[mothershipconnection]

That speed is also valuable in covering alot of ground in the OF, so it's hard to say what's better or worse. Watching Griffey let balls bloop in front of him, I wonder if his offense makes up for it sometimes.

In a lot of cases that's true, but there are guys like Jim Edmonds that don't have elite speed but still make plays while there are guys like Alex Sanchez who everyone can see is a butcher, but kept getting chances because he can fly. Bernie Williams lost speed as he got older but until last year he still made the plays he needed to while putting up good offensive numbers - despite never being a good base stealer.

I guess my gripe is that it seems that too often, teams base decisions on raw speed with guys like Corey Patterson, who has sucked until 100 AB's this year. How much can his defense really be an upgrade over a guy who's a step slower but has a .100 advantage in OPS? I don't even think Andruw Jones' defense can justify the .602 OPS Patterson posted last year. Joey Gathright has a career OPS of .606, but hey, dude can fly.

[monty57]

Russ, In one post, you are ripping the announcers for using small sample size. In the next post you refuted one poster - who gave 16 years worth of data showing that CF outhit 2B -by giving one year's worth of data.

 

Compared to sixteen years worth of data, one year's data is statistically meaningless. Therefore, as you stated in your first post, one would have to be "ignorant" to use it, as second basemen couldn't "magically" become better hitters over one season.

 

I know you're not ignorant, and I don't mean to imply that you are. In fact I really enjoy reading your posts. However, it shows it's easy fall into using stats that back an argument, even if they're "statistically irrelevent." I tend to give the announcers the beneift of the doubt. It would be very hard to speak for three hours a night, 130+ times a year without saying some things that sound dumb.

[1992casey]

I don't believe Russ was trying to state an opinion at all. His post adds to the stats mothership provided rather than refuting them. He's just illustrating where endaround was coming from (2B = CF).

 

What would be cool is one of his Excel graphs comparing the two positions for as many years as he could stand entering.