Resigning Grandal & Moose

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think it's perfectly fair to have concerns about what happened this year, but if the Brewers bet on him to fill one of the two corner IF spots because they have reason to believe he'll rebound, I think that's a fair bet for the team to make. They have a lot of holes to fill and only so many resources with which to use, so it seems likely that Shaw and/or Arcia may be relied on as a result.

 

Exactly. This team is not in the position where they aren't going to have to take a few leaps of faith.

[TURBO]

Ok, I get what you guys are saying about Shaw, however, the possibility is just as real that he has just turned into a crap player, as it is he will rebound. I do not want to go into the season counting on a rebound. My feeling is he would have an EXTRA long leash, and by the time it is figured out that he sucks as bad as last year, the damage will already be done. EVERY game counts, as we have found out the past two seasons.

 

We can't afford to gamble on Travis Shaw being 2018 Travis Shaw, when we all witnessed what 2019 Travis Shaw looks like. Especially if we go into the season with no Grandal, no Moose, Arcia at SS and some reclamation project at 1B.

[PeaveyFury]

We can't afford to gamble on Travis Shaw being 2018 Travis Shaw, when we all witnessed what 2019 Travis Shaw looks like. Especially if we go into the season with no Grandal, no Moose, Arcia at SS and some reclamation project at 1B.

 

Then kindly explain how you expect to fill all of those holes with limited resources?

[pacopete4]

You have to gamble somewhere. I think gambling that Shaw can be a good player again is as good as any AAAA guys we could attempt.

[PeaveyFury]

You have to gamble somewhere. I think gambling that Shaw can be a good player again is as good as any AAAA guys we could attempt.

 

This is where I'm at too... I think if you have any hope of adding significant, needle-moving help on the pitching staff, you're going to have to make a gamble on a guy like Shaw at 3rd. Obviously, you'd still ideally find a RH bat to play 3rd or 1st vs. LHP, but that would be the case with a guy like Thames as well.

[JohnBriggs12]

We can't afford to gamble on Travis Shaw being 2018 Travis Shaw, when we all witnessed what 2019 Travis Shaw looks like. Especially if we go into the season with no Grandal, no Moose, Arcia at SS and some reclamation project at 1B.

 

Then kindly explain how you expect to fill all of those holes with limited resources?

 

Limited resources? The payroll is sitting at where $90 million give or take? That's peanuts for a team that drew nearly 3 million. I think they have at least $40 million in payroll room for 2020, perhaps as much as $50 million. It's 2020, baseball revenues are up considerably from what they were when the Brewers couldn't afford to keep Fielder. If there was no luxury tax, the big revenue teams would all have payrolls over 300 million and still be making money. The Brewers revenue is in the middle of the division, considerably less than Cubs and Cards but tens of millions more than the Reds and Bucs.

[PeaveyFury]

We can't afford to gamble on Travis Shaw being 2018 Travis Shaw, when we all witnessed what 2019 Travis Shaw looks like. Especially if we go into the season with no Grandal, no Moose, Arcia at SS and some reclamation project at 1B.

 

Then kindly explain how you expect to fill all of those holes with limited resources?

 

Limited resources? The payroll is sitting at where $90 million give or take? That's peanuts for a team that drew nearly 3 million. I think they have at least $40 million in payroll room for 2020, perhaps as much as $50 million. It's 2020, baseball revenues are up considerably from what they were when the Brewers couldn't afford to keep Fielder. If there was no luxury tax, the big revenue teams would all have payrolls over 300 million and still be making money. The Brewers revenue is in the middle of the division, considerably less than Cubs and Cards but tens of millions more than the Reds and Bucs.

 

When a signing like Grandall has the potential to eat literally half of that $40 million, plus $10 mil for Moose, that leaves a whopping $10 million to fill what, 2 rotation spots, two BP arms and first base/shortstop? It's not 1995..... it takes a lot to sign pitching. A lot. And 'limited resources' also refers to the general lack of trade capital that the Brewers have to fill holes via that route.

 

Edit: The point is, I think you may be able to upgrade 1b/3b OR SS, but I struggle to see how they could do both.

[brewers888]

This is where we are paying the price for having such a weak farm system. If we had done a better job drafting and signing players from Latin America we would probably be able to fill either the catcher or third base position from within. As we currently stand I don't see how we can rely on Shaw if we are planning on contending which I am sure we are.

[brewers888]

The focus is always on the pitching yet our offense wasn't all that good last season. If we go into next season without Moustakas, Grandal, and Thames we may very well be a terrible offensive team.

[RollieTime]

The Brewers had $47 million come off the books already not including their decisions on Shaw, Nelson, or possibly Guerra. Heck, maybe Knebel’s medicals are really bad and he’s let go. You never know. But as it sits right now, you could realistically bring back Moose for $13 million, Iglesias for $7, Thames for 5, and sign one of the catchers late to pair with Pina for $2-$3 million. Bring back Pomeranz for $7 million. That brings the offseason total to around $35 million. They only have “limited resources” to a point if you’re bringing back both Moose and Grandal. Then yeah, it’s tough filling all your holes. But if you let someone go, you can realistically fill all your holes. There’s still roughly $12 million to put into the rotation like bringing Lyles back for $5 million or so and bringing in another arm like Miley or somebody else in February looking to just get paid to play on a one year deal. All of that could realistically get done while retaining Shaw and Nelson as well.

 

Moving on from both of those guys could free up roughly $8 million more that could be paired with Wade Miley money (if he isn’t brought in) and have a good rotation arm brought in at the $13-$15 million range. There is a lot of flexibility they have right now that could be used to address pretty much every single concern if someone like Grandal isn’t retained while only increasing the payroll by maybe a couple million in the example provided above.

 

Sometimes I feel like people don’t realize how bad Arcia has been offensively. Replace his .220 average with a guy hitting .270 and it’s the same as replacing a .260 hitter with a .310 hitter. It’s huge. If you let Grandal go, but give SS a boost, the offense will be nearly the same. Grandal hits some homeruns and draws a ton of walks, but Pina isn’t exactly a black hole himself. He has a higher batting average than Grandal for his career and is great defensively. Pina did hit 7 homeruns last year with a juiced ball in only 158 at bats. Could be possibly be one of the guys that greatly benefits from the juiced ball and hits 20 homers in a season if given 400-450 atbats? For under $2 million, he’s a pretty dang good option. IF Pina stays healthy, which is a big if, I don’t see why he couldn’t push 18-20 homers this season with the juiced ball. This offense would be fine without Grandal if SS is upgraded.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The focus is always on the pitching yet our offense wasn't all that good last season. If we go into next season without Moustakas, Grandal, and Thames we may very well be a terrible offensive team.

 

The 2018 team did not have Grandal, and had Moose for only a small portion of the season. Thames was also pretty bad that season.

 

They were fine. Good even.

[PeaveyFury]

The Brewers had $47 million come off the books already not including their decisions on Shaw, Nelson, or possibly Guerra. Heck, maybe Knebel’s medicals are really bad and he’s let go. You never know. But as it sits right now, you could realistically bring back Moose for $13 million, Iglesias for $7, Thames for 5, and sign one of the catchers late to pair with Pina for $2-$3 million. Bring back Pomeranz for $7 million. That brings the offseason total to around $35 million. They only have “limited resources” to a point if you’re bringing back both Moose and Grandal. Then yeah, it’s tough filling all your holes. But if you let someone go, you can realistically fill all your holes. There’s still roughly $12 million to put into the rotation like bringing Lyles back for $5 million or so and bringing in another arm like Miley or somebody else in February looking to just get paid to play on a one year deal. All of that could realistically get done while retaining Shaw and Nelson as well.

 

Moving on from both of those guys could free up roughly $8 million more that could be paired with Wade Miley money (if he isn’t brought in) and have a good rotation arm brought in at the $13-$15 million range. There is a lot of flexibility they have right now that could be used to address pretty much every single concern if someone like Grandal isn’t retained while only increasing the payroll by maybe a couple million in the example provided above.

 

 

I think the premise of these moves is flawed. The Brewers finished the year at $136 million. Current estimates have them around $96-97 million now, so you're closer to $40 million in shed payroll. So your estimate is over by about $7 million. Then yes, they do have decisions on Shaw, Nelson, etc that could add additional $.

 

Your proposed position player moves basically spent all but ~$12 million of the Brewers' offseason money and made catcher worse, SS better, and everything else the same, while doing nothing to improve the bullpen. Bringing back Lyles gets them back to even in the rotation, and leaves a whopping $7-10 million to replace Chase Anderson and find a RH hitting 1B.

[trwi7]

The Brewers had $47 million come off the books already not including their decisions on Shaw, Nelson, or possibly Guerra. Heck, maybe Knebel’s medicals are really bad and he’s let go. You never know. But as it sits right now, you could realistically bring back Moose for $13 million, Iglesias for $7, Thames for 5, and sign one of the catchers late to pair with Pina for $2-$3 million. Bring back Pomeranz for $7 million. That brings the offseason total to around $35 million. They only have “limited resources” to a point if you’re bringing back both Moose and Grandal. Then yeah, it’s tough filling all your holes. But if you let someone go, you can realistically fill all your holes. There’s still roughly $12 million to put into the rotation like bringing Lyles back for $5 million or so and bringing in another arm like Miley or somebody else in February looking to just get paid to play on a one year deal. All of that could realistically get done while retaining Shaw and Nelson as well.

 

Now do all the raises a bunch of our players are going to get.

[RollieTime]

The Brewers had $47 million come off the books already not including their decisions on Shaw, Nelson, or possibly Guerra. Heck, maybe Knebel’s medicals are really bad and he’s let go. You never know. But as it sits right now, you could realistically bring back Moose for $13 million, Iglesias for $7, Thames for 5, and sign one of the catchers late to pair with Pina for $2-$3 million. Bring back Pomeranz for $7 million. That brings the offseason total to around $35 million. They only have “limited resources” to a point if you’re bringing back both Moose and Grandal. Then yeah, it’s tough filling all your holes. But if you let someone go, you can realistically fill all your holes. There’s still roughly $12 million to put into the rotation like bringing Lyles back for $5 million or so and bringing in another arm like Miley or somebody else in February looking to just get paid to play on a one year deal. All of that could realistically get done while retaining Shaw and Nelson as well.

 

Now do all the raises a bunch of our players are going to get.

 

We have I believe 10 guys arby eligible? Nelson, Knebel, Gamel, Shaw, and Suter are getting little to no raise with Nelson and Shaw being real possibilities to be non-tendered. Claudio and Guerra are probably getting slight raises. Arcia, Davies, and Hader are the only 3 that will see much of a jump. It’s probably more accurate to say we have around $40 million to spend. Remove Thames then and my example fits.

 

Anyway, Stearns always pulls off some interesting move that nobody saw coming. Whether that’s trading Davies or Hader this offseason, who knows. Maybe Knebel is tendered a contract, but let go before the season if he’s not healthy, freeing up some money. Maybe he will go out and trade for a guy like Merrifield on a team friendly deal to play all over the field and fill in where needed (who fits perfectly as having a contract that runs through the Yelich window and will be in his prime for a few more seasons).

[MrTPlush]

You have to gamble somewhere. I think gambling that Shaw can be a good player again is as good as any AAAA guys we could attempt.

 

I could see them banking on a Shaw rebound if they upgrade SS. If Shaw fails it is a much easier position to upgrade or find a replacement.

[JohnBriggs12]

You have to gamble somewhere. I think gambling that Shaw can be a good player again is as good as any AAAA guys we could attempt.

 

I could see them banking on a Shaw rebound if they upgrade SS. If Shaw fails it is a much easier position to upgrade or find a replacement.

 

How long a leash can they give Shaw? He could well pick up where he left off. They certainly can't afford to wait till July if he's hitting .160 on Mothers Day and there's not going to be alternatives on the market in May. At the very least they need to bring in a guy with ability to handle the job full time. Starlin Castro started 42 games at 3B last year for Marlins and played fine there. With how Brewers move infielders around, he makes a lot of sense over hoping and praying Travis Shaw isn't Chris Davis without the big contract. At least you know what you're getting in Castro.

[wntrtxn21]

You have to gamble somewhere. I think gambling that Shaw can be a good player again is as good as any AAAA guys we could attempt.

 

I could see them banking on a Shaw rebound if they upgrade SS. If Shaw fails it is a much easier position to upgrade or find a replacement.

 

How long a leash can they give Shaw? He could well pick up where he left off. They certainly can't afford to wait till July if he's hitting .160 on Mothers Day and there's not going to be alternatives on the market in May. At the very least they need to bring in a guy with ability to handle the job full time. Starlin Castro started 42 games at 3B last year for Marlins and played fine there. With how Brewers move infielders around, he makes a lot of sense over hoping and praying Travis Shaw isn't Chris Davis without the big contract. At least you know what you're getting in Castro.

 

Castro would cost about what Moose would command and they wouldn't have to pay Shaw. I agree Stearns can't roll the dice and pray Shaw can get much, much better than last year. To much is riding on 3B to be a position of strength in 2020.

[MrTPlush]

You have to gamble somewhere. I think gambling that Shaw can be a good player again is as good as any AAAA guys we could attempt.

 

I could see them banking on a Shaw rebound if they upgrade SS. If Shaw fails it is a much easier position to upgrade or find a replacement.

 

How long a leash can they give Shaw? He could well pick up where he left off. They certainly can't afford to wait till July if he's hitting .160 on Mothers Day and there's not going to be alternatives on the market in May. At the very least they need to bring in a guy with ability to handle the job full time. Starlin Castro started 42 games at 3B last year for Marlins and played fine there. With how Brewers move infielders around, he makes a lot of sense over hoping and praying Travis Shaw isn't Chris Davis without the big contract. At least you know what you're getting in Castro.

 

How long a leash can you give Arcia? He has been about as bad as you can be for two years now. It is way easier to upgrade 3B any month of the year over trying to fix SS. What happens when Arcia sucks? The same carousel of AAA fodder we have done the last two years.

 

I doubt Shaw can be a total bomb at 3B. Worst case he hits like Arcia and you upgrade him at the deadline easily/cheaply. If Arcia hits like Arcia you are basically screwed for the entire year. But I don't know the 3B market come May (waivers etc.) or July (trades)….maybe it won't be an easy add either.

 

All they need is a bench bat that can play both corners. If Shaw is still sub .600 OPS they have someone to at least be competent until they can get a true replacement.

[monty57]

We can't afford to gamble on Travis Shaw being 2018 Travis Shaw, when we all witnessed what 2019 Travis Shaw looks like. Especially if we go into the season with no Grandal, no Moose, Arcia at SS and some reclamation project at 1B.

 

Then kindly explain how you expect to fill all of those holes with limited resources?

 

Limited resources? The payroll is sitting at where $90 million give or take? That's peanuts for a team that drew nearly 3 million. I think they have at least $40 million in payroll room for 2020, perhaps as much as $50 million. It's 2020, baseball revenues are up considerably from what they were when the Brewers couldn't afford to keep Fielder. If there was no luxury tax, the big revenue teams would all have payrolls over 300 million and still be making money. The Brewers revenue is in the middle of the division, considerably less than Cubs and Cards but tens of millions more than the Reds and Bucs.

 

"Limited resources" simply means that there is a limit to their resources. Limited resources chasing after limited goods is the basis of economics. I don't think anyone means it as a jab at the Brewers, it's just a way of saying that no one can have everything they want. The Brewers have less overall resources than many other teams, but they have shed a lot of salary, so they have room to make moves. The question is simply how are they going to spend their limited resources.

 

I have a feeling that Attanasio wants to do something big. Thames and Anderson weren't that expensive for their production, so there's a reason they're freeing up that salary. Things could change if prices get out of control, but I think he'd like to sign an ace pitcher. That's just a guess. "Something big" could also mean making big offers to Grandal and Moose, but my uneducated guess is that he'll try to sign one of the big starting pitchers.

 

As to Moose and Grandal, they both signed the deals they did last offseason with the thought of testing the market this offseason. They both had big years, which helped both them and the Brewers. The Brewers made the playoffs, and the players probably earned themselves raises for the future. Neither one is going to sign a quick deal with the Brewers just because they played there last year. They've earned the right to sign the biggest deal they can sign. We'll just have to see how the offseason plays out, as Moose has tried the market twice and hasn't had any suitors, so he could be someone who once again signs a short-term deal late in the offseason. I think that of the two, Grandal is the one who is more likely to end up with a big deal in a big market, Moose seems the more likely to be there at the end of the offseason re-signing for a year or two with the Brewers.

 

Bottom line is, we have some money and are certainly not going to sit back and do nothing. I'm excited to see how the Brewers attack this offseason.